IT’S THE FIRST MONDAY FOR THE TRUMP TEAM. IT’S “ PRIME TIME”!
Well, much to the mortification of Hollywood and the left, it
finally happened. Donald Trump is now President of the United States.
Two weeks ago, I addressed the issue of wedges and how the
Trump Team was going to need to start driving wedges between certain weak alliances
in order to set a course for a more stabilized US foreign policy. The Gorilla
in the room that needs to be addressed is the so called alliance between the Tsar
and the Dragon. I’ve beat that one up in several post, so let me move on to one
that is not as important, but needs to be worked and worked soon.
Iran:
Safe to say the only thing that holds the alliance between
the Tsar and the Persians is the common goal of countering the West / US/ in
the region. Is there love between the Persians and the Russians? No. Is there a
history of them holding hands? No. Do the Persians feel like they are “played”
by the Tsar? Yes. Are the Persians attempting to fulfill the Tsar’s dreams in
the region? No. The Iranians have their own dreams and they are not based upon
the vison of Moscow. Leverage point West and the foundation for a wedge if the
driving team knows what they are doing.
So a so called “Peace Conference is being held starting today
and the topic is Syria. Five years ago on this blog site I stated that the
moment the Iranians or the Russians decided Assad was no longer needed, the end
of conflict in Syria would be near. Here is the problem. The Russians are
dealing to end the conflict and the inputs of the Iranians are not on the
table. The Tsar is setting the terms of the “deal” and that deal is predicated
on how he can leverage the Mad Turk and the new US President. Iran may hold up
their hand when it comes time to vote. They may even be allowed to voice an
opinion of what needs to happen in Syria, but words in the air will be all that
opinion amounts to. The future of Syria is tied to the future of Eastern Europe
and NATO’s status. What the Persians want for Syria is of no consequence in
Moscow. Syria is a bargaining chip and a tool, nothing more! The so called “land
bridge” between Iran and their proxy fighters in Lebanon, that to can become a bargaining
chip for the Tsar and Trump to parlay over. The future of Syria is not up to Iran
or the GCC members, or at least the Tsar Doesn’t think so. I will address that potential
fatal flaw in a few.
PRIME TIME:
Here comes the Billion dollar question. Is the Trump Team
ready for Prime Time?
Does the new US team understand how to leverage what is
taking place between Iran and the Russians?
If I was asked how to place a wedge between the Iranian and
Russian “Alliance”, this would be my plan. Ready?........................................... I would let the Tsar handle Syria anyway he
wants. Don’t show up to the talks. Don’t have an opinion of the outcome of the
talks. When the Tsar has his big post event press conference, let him have all
the glory! Let him build all the anger towards him. Let the Persians feel like
second class citizens in their own backyard. Yep….Let the Tsar abuse the
Persian dreams and build the Persian anger. Shift the hatred! Can the West and
the US see the advantage of letting the Tsar win? In the end, if Tlass becomes
the proxy, interim leader of Syria. Tlass, a man who walked away from Assad and
the Syrian Army in 2012. A man who fled
to one of the GCC nations. Is this someone the Persians had in mind to replace
Assad? No! It’s a Russian, Turk idea, and the Iranians were not in on the concept
and will not be given a vote! Turkey wants the Shia Militias out of Syria. The
GCC want the Shia Militias out of Syria and the Tsar has no advantage by
agreeing to let them stay. In the mind of the Persians, does the land bridge survive?
Is the Tlass deal good for Iran? No!
So, what becomes of the Tlass deal if it takes place? Do the
Iranians give up on their dreams of controlling, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon? No!
Do the Iranians see Moscow as the real threat to this dream? Hint. They already
do!
So what does the Trump Team get from this event? If they
follow the strategy I spelled out, what is the advantage? The wedge! That is
the advantage! The thin cloth that binds the Iranians to the Russians is torn. The
Iranians become more isolated than at any time in the past decades. Now, here
comes the hard part for Trump’s team. The Tsar has probably played this Peace
Conference / Tlass/ issue out. Has he come up with what he believes is the
proper counter to damaging his relationship with Iran? Well, he’s come up with something, but how it
will play out, not even the Tsar can be assured. Risk. It’s his middle name.
So imagine this. Imagine after the Tsar declares a victory
in solving the Syrian Civil War and after the Trump team has agreed to go along
with it, the next event that involves the Persian is the US announcing it is
going not honor the Iranian nuclear deal? Does the US go to the UN and address
this? Who knows, but knowing Trump’s style, probably only from the position of
informing the UN not “asking” them. You can bet this will be on the agenda when
President Trump meets the British Prime Minister. Don’t worry about Merkel. I’m
not sure the new US President cares what she has to say about Iran.
Look. In the end. What the Trump Team cares about is the
Iranian nuclear arms deal. The future of Syria is not on the first 100 day
list. The destruction of the Daesh is! The deals made between Trump and Putin
are made at their level, not the Iranian level. The blame for making the
Persians look insignificant in the region will go to Moscow, not DC or London! The
nuclear deal will fall apart and the Iranians will be faced with a dramatic decision.
Do they openly resist the new Syrian “deal”, or do they let the Tsar win? My
met is the Shia Militias are not coming out of Syria anytime soon and in the
next few months they may even have new targets! There will be no peace in Syria
anytime soon, but the Iranian nuclear arms deal will change and the status of
NATO will change as well.
Yep. It’s Monday morning and the new Team in DC better be
ready for Prime Time!
