ISIS ATTACK IN IRAN. A NEW TWIST IN A COMPLICATED STORY.

Is anyone really shocked this took place? Are most “experts” sipping coffee today saying, “what took so long”?  As a reminder to all that care, first and foremost, what is taking place with ISIS is nothing more than an extension of a religious Civil War. A Civil War with the one side headed by the very country that was attacked today. Anyone want to guess how long it will take for the Iranians to blame Saudi and the US? So, the fact that this event took place today is not surprising. What is very……very….surprising is the location of the attacks and the success they Cells had with penetrating the targets. That is the tactical side of this story.

How long has the Iranian government been anticipating such an event? How hard have they planned, trained and exercised for just such a day? What locations in Iran have been given priority for security? In short, how in the world did this happen? The answer for one of the locations rest with the very nature of the target. A public site. Large crowds. Different faces every day. Those identifiers makes the job of security extremely difficult. Just how good was the organization tasked with protecting this hallowed site? Are they allowed to actually exercise at the very location they defend? If not, failure is almost a guaranteed outcome and that is the outcome they had today. Security that is all show and no “go” is not a deterrent to a well-disciplined Cell that has spent time studying their target and you can bet the men that executed this attacked had done their homework. What that boils down to is some poor Commander and a few of his subordinates being blamed for what happened. As for the second target, the Parliament compound, now that is a different story. Is the facility open to the public? If not, then there the Iranians have a much bigger problem.

Insiders:

How does a Cell work up its target package when the facility is something that is most likely tightly secured and not open to the large amounts of public traffic? Again, the assumption here is that the facility is not truly open to the public.  Well, what’s the best way to gather information? Yep. Have someone on the inside. Let me give you an example of something that has puzzled me for well over two years now. In the past, I’ve addressed the mystery of how Iran could have lost so many Senior Officers in the Syrian Civil War? How is it that many of them were killed away from the actual area where fighting was Taking place? How could Iran ever really know the loyalty of every rear area Guard? Men who were not Iranians. Men who were not truly known to the Iranian military. My answer to what was taking place was the issue of “insiders”. So, did the Cell that hit the Parliament Building, and even the Shrine, have “insiders”?

The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend:

Does Iran’s leadership have enemies inside the country? Absolutely! Would it be possible to recruit one or two low level workers, Janitors let say? Yep. Information needed. Objects prepositioned. That is how the game is played. Did these two Cells have help? That is the real, non-media, question being asked today in Tehran. Who can Iran blame for the event? How will they shape what took place is the political phase of this attack. How to stop the next one and there will be more, that is the real panic room event taking place today. Trust is a concept easily lost when lives are lost. Trust becomes harder to find and maintain once lives are lost. How do the Iranians prevent the next attack? Do they round up anyone and everyone they can think of? Yes, that is the Iranian way. Will that work? Maybe, but they can’t “trust” that it will. The 7^th of June was so close to the anniversary of the death of the Iranian Idol, it just could be that was the date it was to take place. But, then again, the Cell may have anticipated the heightened security for that date and pushed the attack by two days. That is not what will have Tehran burring the midnight Persian Oil. How do they stop the next attacks? Who do they blame? As always, let’s see where this one goes.