THE PENDING BATTLE IN BAGHDAD??? IS IT REALLY GOING TO HAPPEN?

It seems the Sunni forces are still making advances towards Baghdad, or at least the media  paints that picture.

If the Shia are “rallying” by the thousands, then how could this be?

Let’s take a look at the details that are most likely being overlooked by those who claim to be “covering” the events in Iraq.

Here is a hint, you can be standing in front of something and still not see it or understand what it means.

A few days ago, I mentioned the difficulties the Sunni fighting groups will eventually face if they are triumphant in dividing Iraq.

Good governance does not come from the barrel of a gun!

Leading a nation is much more difficult than dividing one up.

But, I've already covered this topic and something else has to happen before any of this truly becomes an issue.

The Shia must be defeated in Baghdad and that battle, if it happens will not take place like anyone imagines.

Let me cover a few tenants of Conflict that will come into play if the Battle for Baghdad actually takes place.

FOG OF WAR:

Time and time again, we have heard how the standing Iraqi military outnumbers the ISIS and those supporting it.

Does anyone really know the numbers of the ISIS?

Have they changed since the conflict got underway?

Who knows what the real numbers are?

Where are they?

Are they preposition ed already inside of Baghdad waiting for the siege to begin?

What targets would these units have and how would the Shia holders of the city insure the world they can hold the city if this “inside” threat takes place.

Yes; the doctrinal definition of “Fog of War” has many variants and we will see them come to light with the pending events in Baghdad.

CLOSE ORDER COMBAT: 

Yes the Iraqi military has fixed wing and rotor wing support that has some level of precision weaponry, but are they good enough to take on an enemy that is intermingled with civilian populations clusters?

As advanced as this process has become with the US, it’s a constant fact that civilians are killed when an enemy mixes in with local civilian members.

If the battle for Baghdad takes place in the outskirts of the city, how does the Iraqi military avoid killing innocent members of its own population?  

Short answer; they don’t and that is exactly what the media will cover!

Now, the advantage in this possible pending battle goes to the Shia forces given they are once again supported by a universal law of combat; the Defender has a 3 or 4 to one advantage.

Here is the problem with that “theory”.

When the defender has less resolve than the aggressor, than that ratio must go even higher to hold true.

A battle hardened group versing a force  full of members who only days earlier where walking the streets as ordinary citizens brings the whole question of “advantage” into question.

Once again, let me go back to the issue of “inside” forces placed at strategic locations inside the city.

QUALITY OF FORCE:

What is the “quality” of the forces set to defend Baghdad?

What is the “quality” of the force moving on Baghdad?

One has had training with contracted firms in scripted exercises set to show their leaders, who spent a great deal of money, how combat ready they appear to be.

One has been in conflict inside of Syria for over three years with many seeing combat on an almost daily bases.

I think my point is made here, so let me move on.

UNITY OF EFFORT:

Are the Shia member from the border region of Iraq and Kuwait willing to be killed over a Northern oil field in the northern sections of Iraq… an oil operation that does nothing for the quality of life of those Southern Iraqi Shia members?

Are they willing to be killed for Western town they have never seen or never will?

Does the Sunni force marching on Baghdad intend to take control of Baghdad or force the current government from power?

Of the two groups, who is truly more “unified”?

RESOLVE:

Are the Shia united in their effort to save Iraq?

Are the two Heroes now inside of Baghdad singing off the same sheet of music?

Just how strong is the “unified effort” the Sunni force must break through?

Ok, by now, my point should be clear.

The battle for Baghdad, if it does come, will not go as the Shia who are parading in the streets hope it will.

They have the most difficult task of all; keeping the confidence of the public, a public that is watching the Sunni fighters continue to march forward toward Baghdad.

The Sunni force has the task of destroying the confidence not of the more elite forces the Shia will place in their path at the gates to Baghdad, but of the people who walk the streets of Baghdad.

If a true exodus begins, and actually one already has begun, then the Shia will have the tactical advantage of not having to fight door to door, killing their own people in the process.

An enemy “in the open”, in amongst buildings that are empty is a target for weapons designed to kill in mass and the Shia will use them.

Here is the endgame!

When that time comes, what is left of Baghdad?

What is left of the Iraqi government?

Google the city of Aleppo and look at how it appeared four years ago and then look at a picture of it from June  of 2014.

You will have your answer!