IF ISLAMIC FORCES “MUTATE”, WILL THE WEST STILL PURSUE?
Rumors upon rumors in the past few days centered around IS
forces folding in with other Sunni movements in Syria have perpetuated yet
another key question.
If IS forces “mutate”, will the West / US / still pursue the
fight?
How many similar movements is the West ready to attack?
Last week, I stated one of the most common forms of survival
for Guerrilla fighters is to melt away and live to fight another day.
One version of this tactic is to hide inside a movement much
like the one that is targeted, but not currently on the “target list”.
Now, the argument can be made that if an organization is
forced to take such action, then “change” has been forced upon them and that
change can lead to an acceptable outcome.
If IS forces are forced to go to ground, forced to fold into
a like organization, does that render them less effective?
Yes.
Does that mean the battle is won?
Absolutely not.
Here is one of the greatest dangers with this course of
action.
It’s very probable the sympathetic attitude towards this
group can come flowing to the surface if in the act of “retreat” they are
attacked.
It’s the accepted action of barbaric, uncivilized movements,
but it’s an act that is quickly questioned
in a “civilized” nation.
Simply put, if the bad guys hide inside a group not seen as
a threat and then they are attacked, the world opinion can turn virtually
overnight.
If you doubt me, ask the Israelis about the tactic of Hamas
hiding amongst it civilian population.
Who understands this modern day, civilized media driven phenomenon?
Yep…. The Leadership of IS; that’s who.
Winter is coming to Northern Iraq and Syria.
A winter where unmotivated, poorly lead Iraqi forces and war
ravaged Syrian units will take every opportunity they can to avoid combat…. By the
way…combat in the freezing cold is much...much more difficult than in the heat
of Summer.
As for the Kurd forces…. winter is an excellent time to
train….plan and demand more advanced weapons from an over energetic Western leadership
so called “ coalitions”.
Remember…. The Country of Kurdistan must be the endstate of
this conflict and new Western weapons will ensure that vision……at the anger of the Ottoman Empire.
If IS mutates…… will the West pursue?
I know my answer.
