HONG KONG. JUST WHAT IS GOING ON?
Hong Kong. I touched on the topic last week, but it seems to be an issue that is not cooling down. Who does Hong Kong belong to? If you ask China, the answer is black and white. If you ask the people of Hong Kong, you get a very different response. Now, we could kill time talking about the history of Hong Kong and what agreements were made, but if you know me, that's simply not my style. Hong Kong is a "issue" with the Chinese and in an age of perceptions, the "issue" of Hong Kong cannot be underestimated.
Facts:
Events in Hong Kong are based upon a large percentage of the people simply not wishing to be assimilated into the Borg ship called China. Can they completely break away? no. Can they attempt to form a working relationship that allows them to be somewhat attached to China? Well, that was the initial agreement, but times have changed and China has changed. What is Honk Kong to China? If you answered an economic engine, you are only partially correct. If you answer Hong Kong is a potential thereat to the communist form of government in China, BINGO....you win the prize. Fact. Hong Kong is a threat to the new emperor and his dream of world dominance. Fact. Outside forces are at play in making Hong Kong a point of tension with the emperor. Now, is that "outside" force based upon the US? In my opinion, that line of thought gives too much credit to the US's strategic planing process. The US now lives in a perpetual cycle of elections and spends most of it's energy in a continuous game of campaigning. Could the US be responsible for what is taking place in Hong Kong? Maybe....................maybe! Here is the most important fact to take away from this post. The Emperor and his court believe, truly believe, the US is behind the events in Hong Kong and at the end of the day, that is all that matters.
What does the Emperor believe:
Hong Kong is being leveraged as part of a much larger plan to "contain" China. "Contain". A word US political leaders have used over and over again. It's a word that could easily come back to haunt them as well as the American people. Hong Kong is a pawn in the US / China trade wars. Again, perception is reality in the 21st century. American flags, The Star Spangled Banner. What else is Beijing to believe? Funding and coordination to student activist groups in Hong Kong. Try not linking that to the West. Okay, here is the bottom line. Beijing is convinced the US is behind the events in Hong Kong. Now, in order to get this story to where it needs to be, we need to move off this point and concentrate on some level of predictive analysis.
What does it mean:
What options does the Emperor have for this issue of Hong Kong? That my friends is where the real danger begins. As I have said before, can the Chinese simply crush the protesters in Hong Kong? If they decided to do so, it would only be an indication of just how worried they had become of what the whole thing could lead to. By the way. Some "experts" say the level of nationalistic pride in China's youth is higher than anywhere else in the world. If that were true, Beijing wouldn't be as upset as they showing us. To them Hong Kong is a crack in the armor and they fear that crack may spread. If nationalism was so strong, that worry would not be there. China is worried and a worried China can easily turn into a angry China and an angry China has many...... options.
Options:
What is the historic, classical response to external interference? If you answered counter interference, wow, you are on a hot streak. Let's pick a few options we need to watch for.
North Korea:
Yep, the Rabid Dog on a short leash. A few missile test simply may not be good enough. If Hong Kong doesn't calm down, perhaps the Little Fat Boy in North Korea is ordered to break off all ties with The Donald. Wouldn't the Democrats love to jump on that issue. You can bet the Emperor knows that option is out there. What is The Donald going to do, go to war with North Korea in an election cycle? Not hardly. Yes, North Korea and everything bad thing about that place could now be in play.
Iran:
Iran desperately needs a life support nation. Just today, TASS ran a story about a "new agreement" between Russia and Iran and a pending joint operation in the Straits. Is that true? That's a whole different story to address, but it would be easy for China to add to the tension. Did anyone happen to see the story last week concerning tankers outfitting themselves with Chinese flags in the Straits? Again, that's a story that needs to be addressed as well, but is Iran in play over the Hong Kong issue? You better believe it is.
Venezuela:
Sound unrealistic? If you said no, wow, you are on your way be becoming a Talking Head on cable news. Pressure in the US's "backyard" is not a new concept to Beijing and such a move would be a real "tit for tat" when it comes to the issue of Hong Kong. Close your eyes and imagine an announcement from Venezuela on a "joint" military base in Venezuela. Chinese aircraft and ships not just visiting,but stationed there. Oh, by the way, you can toss in US arms sales to Taiwan if you need more fuel for this theory.
Mexico:
Mexico? Did I say Mexico? yes.....yes I did. Just how upset is Beijing? Upset enough to strike a deal with the new ultra Socialist President of Mexico? All it would take is the rumor of a "joint" Chinese / Mexican adventure and DC would finally pay attention to it's neighbor to the South. Want to rule this scenario out? Let's see how bad Hong Kong gets.
Okay, I could go on and on, but here is the overriding point. Beijing is not going to take the events in Hong Kong without countering in some manner. Does the Emperor blame the US? We've already been over that point. Is Hong Kong vital to China's future? It's not just vital, it's critical.
With so much going on in the world, it's easy to not focus on this Hong Kong issue. As the US slips into the electoral version of Pon Farr, miscalculating China's temperament is a very....very...dangerous course of action, but then again, once the US Pon Farr starts, nothing....absolutely noting else matters.
