Monday, May 23, 2011






















PAKISTAN AND THE LOSS OF CONFIDENCE:


There has been a lot of talk about so called embarrassment handed to the Pakistani  military after the UBL event.

I am not of the opinion the Pak military was embarrassed

They run their country with an iron fist and no one will ever convince me they had no idea the number one terrorist in the world was ¼ mile from their primary military academy.

So, the storyline may say they are ‘embarrassed’, but I have a different theory.

The Pak military is far more worried about losing the confidence of the Pak public!

Going to be at night thinking the Taliban or other fanatical groups can stay where they want or more importantly attack where they please is not the picture of the Pak public the military desires.

Confidence and the loss of such is the glue that holds a military together and a nation that leans on it’s military like Pakistan does needs ever ounce of ‘confidence’ it can manage.

The attack on the Navy base was not as bold as the one on the Military HQ a few years ago.

That attack was even more ‘embarrassing’ than the Navy base event.

Confidence or embarrassments are arguable topics, but the issue of ‘concern’ could be taking center stage.

The article attached brings up a legitimate concern.

Can the Pakistani military provide the level of protection required for a nuclear weapon’s program?

Who does this question apply to?

The Pak public?

The People of India?

The US and it’s Allies?

Let me give you the answer that really matters.

The question applies to the fanatical groups in and around Pakistan.

The concept of targeting an operation or location is based upon two simple factors.

1.      How important is the target to the cause and the owner of the target?
2.      Is it possible to execute the mission?

If the groups that would like to see the government of Pakistan fall believe the nuclear weapons program is a valuable enough target and they believe the target is approachable, then the threat equation goes way.. way .. up!!

Now, compound this problem with the concept of not actually having to be successful  achieving the mission.

Just imagine the CNN / FOX / Al Jazeera / news story of a nuke power plant under attack or a nuke weapons site being in a sixteen hour firefight like the one at the Pak Navy base?

Now, imagine this taking place during the middle of the trading day on Wall Street?

What is the definition of a ‘ successful mission’?

What is the confidence level after such an event taking place?

Like I said, I don’t buy the ‘embarrassed’ storyline with Pakistan, but I do worry about the confidence level the fanatics have in ‘embarrassing’ the Pak Military.