Sunday, July 31, 2011












DANGEROUS TRENDS AND THE BEGINNING OF RAMADAN



Earlier this week I spoke of the disturbing, yet predictable events in Egypt and how the MB and others like the Salafist had everything going their way.

I had mentioned the “tent city” issue that was beginning to come to the forefront in Israel and why this movement had a very disturbing theme to it.

Let’s look at the “ tent city” issue in greater detail and possibly shed some light on why this event could lead to much bigger problems for Israel.

I would not argue for one minute the people of Israel who pay all the bills, the middle class, do not have the right to be extremely upset of the skyrocketing cost over the past two years.

Israel’s repercussions of the worldwide economic slowdown from two years ago are obviously still impacting day to day lives  there.

When politicians continue to use revenue as a means of insuring reelection and not being financially responsible, then eventually the wheels will come off the whole process.

Like Egypt, Tunisia, Syria and so on and so on…. Many of the people in Israel who are upset with the current government have a legitimate complaint.

And as is the case in Egypt, Tunisia, Syria and so on and so on….  “Other” groups are taking advantage of the tension.

Several times over the past five months, I have talked about the two main movements that have been fighting for control of the “ Arab Spring”.

  1. The Socialist / Revolutionaries supported by the Academic communities;  the bastion of  such movements for centuries now.

  1. The Muslim Fundamentalist movement; I know most of these groups will tell you they are NOT “Fundamentalist”…… Right!!!!

As has been the case since the beginning of the ‘ Arab Spring’, the game for the  Fundamentalist   has been to let the youthful, Socialist / Academics  spill their blood and eventually do all the legwork  and when the time is right… make their ‘move’.

This is exactly what we witnessed last Friday in Egypt.

It is my belief this is exactly the trend we will see with events in Israel only they will be compounded by the possible September UN vote on the PA issue.

The people who are currently protest in Israel are a mixture of the Social Revolutionaries and the Middle Class of Israel.

If you don’t think this Social Revolutionary movement is taking part in Israel, just take a look at the poster in the middle of the photograph in the attached article.
 
Interesting enough, good old Che Guevara mug shot has shown up in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and now Israel.

Now, follow the pattern that has been set throughout the Arab Spring…. The youth movement, this time accompanied by the working people of Israel, start the process…. The seated government overreacts ……. Al Jazeera runs a dozen stories about the ‘injustices’ of Israel and so on and so on…

And if and when it all starts to turn real bad… in walks the second group!!!!

Again .. The Egyptian model fits here.

Now, there is and will be a real twist to the Israel version of this story.

IRAN!!

Several times in the past three months I have mentioned how desperate Iran is and will be to draw the attention away from events in Syria, to the point I did not and still do not rule out Iranian supported violence / military supported action against Israel.

You can be your last meal this ‘Tent City’ event in Israel has Iran’s attention on several fronts.

The danger will be pushing it too far.

Israel like Iran is fully aware of how unstable it’s near term future could be.

Israel like Iran could easily decide to ‘turn up the heat’ on Iran if things get too out of control.

It’s a classic example of, “ be careful what you wish for” when it comes to Iran and the ‘Tent City’ event unfolding in Israel.

Way back in Jan of this year, I predicted the Arab Spring final event would take place in Israel.

I have said for three months now the MB feels the timing is not right for a dramatic shift in the Israeli / PA issue.

They need to stabilize the future of Egypt and finish planning the future of Syria before they can go for the final prize of the PA issue.

That doesn’t mean they are not going to directly or indirectly support the current event in Israel.

What they don’t want is two fold.

  1. They don’t want the Shia  / Iran to gain the upper hand and be seen as a leader on the PA issue.

  1. They don’t want uncoordinated and perhaps uncontrollable violence to include a regional war, while they try and form governments in Egypt and Syria.


Israel knows this and it will help them design their response to not only the events in Israel, but to the potential medaling of Iran. 

In the long run, the working class people of Israel who are upset with the cost of living in Israel could find themselves inadvertent ‘pawns’ in the never ending struggle called the Middle East.



Friday, July 29, 2011

















EGYPT: A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF “ I TOLD YOU SO”.

If you search my post on this blog site, you will find a series of post that talked about the possible future of the Egyptian Revolution.

If anyone possibly thought the MB and other groups such as the Salafists were going to sit back and let the liberal, academic youth of Egypt forge the future of Egypt after nearly 50 years of being suppressed, the MB that is, I can’t help you understand what is really going on in Egypt.

I said this four months ago and I will say it again.

The ‘fundamentalist’, all of them, are not about to sit on the sidelines and watch a group of “kids” who are following all the ways of the hated ‘infidels’ , set the future of Egypt.

They may have started the Arab Spring, but they are not going to be allowed to own the movement.

I have talked about how the MB and now their ‘partner’ in crime, the Salafist, ( more dangerous than the MB), having set a plan for Egypt.

I have talked about the ‘ Master Plan’ for the MB, but let me reiterate what I think is going on.

We could be witnessing the beginning of a real rift that some of us predicted from the beginning of the ‘revolution’ in Egypt.

Both groups, the fundamentalist and the liberal youth believe it is their time to change the course of Egypt.

The difference is very important and the key to who will probably win this battle for control of Egypt’s future.

The MB and the Salafist have no problem lying to anyone who is a ‘nonbeliever’.

The Liberal Youth want to see the good in everyone and unfortunately see the “ good” in everyone to include the MB and the Salafist.

Are these harsh words?

Yes they are, but harsh is what Egypt is in for.

I was never optimistic Egypt was suddenly going to travel the liberal road to Nirvana , much to the chagrin of CNN’s dreamers.

Ok, look; we have two groups in Egypt, the ruthless ‘Fundamentalist’ and the “I see the good in everyone” liberal Youth.

Yes there are others, but they are too busy trying to work just to keep their families fed and safe.

They are the real victims here.

Yes, I think this protest today is the beginning of real trouble for Egypt.

I’m not sure what this turn of events is going to mean to the rest of the Middle East, but trouble in Egypt is great news for Assad and Iran.

Never forget my theory of Iran needing a huge distraction to keep their dream alive.

If Iran was preparing to actually go to war with Israel, then Egypt may be about to give them the out they desperately needed.  







 










Thursday, July 28, 2011


















IRAN IS NOT POPULAR??? SAY IT ANT SO!!!!

So,  it appears Iran in not wining the popularity competition in the Middle East?

Wow; is anyone really shocked?

What was missing from the article is the common knowledge that Arabs don’t trust Persians regardless of the so called common religion.

I’m not sure the Iranian leadership is too terribly upset with a survey run by an American firm and I’m really confident they are not trying to win a popularity contest.

Is there value to having the information from this survey?

Yes!

The DoS and other agencies could, and I stress the concept of ‘could’, utilize this information for building programs designed to minimize the Iranian government’s actions and influence in the Middle East.

As time goes on and the Arab Spring, now the Arab Summer, continues to bring about change in the Middle East, never forget the baseline assumption that Arabs don’t trust, really trust, Persians / Iran.  P.S. The vision of the “ Persian Empire” is based on owning the Arabs, not working with them.


Two other quick comments based on  a few interesting articles I read today.

SYRIAN OPPOSITION TRAINING?

I’ve talked about the concept of a ‘shadow government’ operating out of Turkey and how that must sit with Assad and Iran, but  this story brings a new twist.

It’s one thing for a large group of individuals representing who knows how many different ‘agendas’ to sit down and pretend as if they are forming a new government for Syria….. but training…… breakouts… classes?

I didn’t dig into this too deep, but I would like to know who are the ‘instructors’ and who set up the training; not to mention who is paying for it.

A ‘Technocratic’ flavor to this shadow government could go a long ways towards other nations approaching them in behind the scene support.

Can they keep the fractional groups truly on a Technocratic path is the real question.

There is more to this story and it will be interesting to see who picks up on it.

As a side note; don’t overlook the issue of Turkey, “The Ottoman Empire” continuing to ‘host’ these meetings….. The “Persian Empire” doesn’t!!!!



TENT CITY A SIGN OF BIG TROUBLES!

I will get into this topic more this weekend after I’ve finished following up on a few issues mentioned in this story.

The short version is this; Israel is facing an ever increasing problem from both the Liberal, Academic movement and the more sinister Muslim Brotherhood movement.

How these two will inadvertently combine to stress the Israeli government  to the breaking point is going to be the next real story of the Summer of 2011.




Tuesday, July 26, 2011






















BOMBS IN LEBANON AND PHONES IN SYRIA!

Here are two interesting articles that are worth talking about.

The attack in Lebanon today has a simple question attached to it.

Who is behind it?

You can roundup the usual list of suspects, but the timing is what makes this event important.

Tensions are high in Lebanon and the art of executing an event knowing someone else will take the blame is a common event in the Middle East.

The type of device and the way it is detonated is typically a good “clue” as to who might be the perpetrator; but again, I mention the concept of setting up some other organization by mimicking their typical actions. 

So, let’s look at the next logical question?

Why?

If you go with the conspiracy, ‘setup’ concept mentioned above, then you may want to look at who would benefit from pushing Lebanon into violence.

            The MB? 

            I don’t buy that one.

            They have their hands full with Syria and Egypt.


            AQ or those that ‘look just like AQ’ ?

If you accept the event is just an unrelated act in the line of a continuation of  the ‘resistance’  towards the UN in Lebanon.

            I’m placing my bet with this theory.

            The device and the way it was detonated are the key clues to the story.

            Why not Hezbollah?

Most believe, including me, Hezbollah is trying to keep a lid on the violence in Lebanon right now based on the guidance from Iran and Assad.
Now, I know I’ve been in the camp of Iran promoting ‘distractions’ to get the pressure off of Syria, but this in not the model they would be looking for.

A complex list of other reasons why this event doesn’t have Hezbollah strings attached could be discussed, but there really is no need.

Yet, if someone wakes me up and tells me Hezbollah did have a hand in this event, it’s a very….very…. bad sign.

If someone comes to me and makes the argument, “ Hezbollah is so worried about the STL, they sent a ‘warning shot’ to the UN.

I don’t buy it, but I sure don’t want to hear this theory pop up.

We are heading for bad times in Lebanon sooner than  I thought if Hezbollah was involved.

Cell phones and radio stations:

The discussion of cell phones being provided to the Syrian resistance movement is a sideshow based upon old comments the US made about Libya several months ago.
                                                                                                             

If the story is true, and it probably has some level of truth to it, so what?

99.9 percent of the people in the US and Europe and even the Middle East won’t give a hoot.

Who will?

Yep… IRAN!!!! Oh.. and the lapdog Assad.

The interesting issue is, even if the story is not accurate, the Iranians and Assad are so paranoid, they will believe it.

They have the technology to disrupt the equipment…. Well… maybe.. 

If  I was a betting man, when the two stories were briefed to the lapdog and Iran, I bet the part about a radio station supported by Saudi received  the lion’s share of the reaction.

When you take these two events and stack them on top of each other, you have a very aggravated Iranian Master and an increasingly confused Assad.

Here comes the question that continues to have the most sought after answer for all the Middle East….. What does Iran do about it?


At what point in time does Iran decide ‘ enough is enough’?

Don’t get me wrong; it’s a good thing to provide support to Syrian resistance.

Everyone just needs  to remember that actions based on looking good in the media or at the UN could very well have reactions that are not fully anticipated.

It’s about time everyone review the age old, “ Law of Unintended Consequences” .

I have mentioned  this "law" in the past, but a reminder right  about now is a good thing!

P.S… Notice the typical Saudi ‘disclaimer’ about not being able to account for all the actions of its citizens. … With the exception of Women drivers!!



Monday, July 25, 2011

SHOPS CLOSED…. ASSAD STARTING TO PROMOTE SECTARIAN VIOLENCE?

Two interesting and very important comments in the story need to be addressed.

  1. The concept of closing shops, businesses as a tactic to protest Assad’s government continues to grow.

I’m not sure most people understand the overall economic crisis the resistance has brought about in Syria.

Every time people go to the streets in numbers talked about in this story, the business world comes to a grinding halt.

It doesn’t matter if your business is taking part or not.

When that many people rise up, everything is impacted.

Don’t lose site of the fact what town this sacked Mayor resided over.

Yep.. Oil is the issue here.

Placing a loyal Intelligence Officer in as the Mayor will not go over with the people there.

He will bring the ability and the willpower to kill more civilians and that is what Assad is banking on.

  1. For several months now it has not seemed logical Assad would support Secterian Violence and most of us really would have bet he was scared to death of  the concept.

He knows it is one of the major triggers his business leaders as well as the UN have been worried about.

It has been seen as a sign he is losing control of the country.

It is understandable some of the groups would blame him for  promoting the violence, but that doesn’t mean he had given the order for Sectarian based assaults.

Yes, using his ‘Homegrown Thugs’ could be interpreted as Sectarian Violence, but his concept there is more based on terrorizing a group into compliance, not promoting a larger Sectarian issue.

Here is the scary part.

Is Assad on the brink of actually supporting Sectarian Violence?

Could it be he is so convinced he is losing control of the country that he is contemplating a “ Scorched Earth / My way on No Way / plan?

It should be something that will have to be taken into consideration from here on out.







Saturday, July 23, 2011





















THE WEEK AHEAD!!

The week ahead has one common theme, a theme that has been going on for several months now.

The Drive of the Muslim Brotherhood for dominance in the Middle East and beyond!

Three of the four attached articles have ties to the efforts and desires of the MB.

The fourth is just as interesting as the other three and deals with Israel’s desperate actions to negate the Iranian nuclear program.


JORDAN:

If the US really did have a sit-down with the King of Jordan, then I am sure the issue of the Muslim Brotherhood and the impact of a collapsed Syria would have been discussed.

The concept of Jordan’s leader having to make concessions is common knowledge to everyone who has been paying attention to the Middle East for the last six months.

The real question becomes, especially from the King’s perspective, is that going to be enough?

Setting up elections that will obviously benefit the MB, or in this case the JMB, is the only end result  the MB will settle for.

These are the ‘ground rules’ the MB set up for Egypt.

These will be the rules the SMB will set up for Syria.

These will be the ground rules for any government the MB brings down in the Middle East or North Africa.

Now I know some will jump up and make the same old worn out statement, “ the MB is not the MB of old”, or they will react with, “ the MB only represents a small proportion of the potential voting populous… bla… bla…. Bla…”

I don’t buy it and most of us who have been watching the Middle East for a long time don’t buy it ether.

The MB is the backbone of the Arab Spring now, and that may not sit well with the liberal, academia world.
Knowing all of this, the King of Jordan is about to make the most basic of mistakes and thereby play right into the hands of the MB.

He will insist that ‘change’ must take place slowly and only after deliberate, detailed planning.

We all know how this game is played now, when this approach is taken by entrenched governments.

As for Jordan and the issue of joining the GCC, I would strongly suggest the King find a way to make this happen sooner rather than he probably would like.

Saudi has reached out to Jordan for a reason, but who knows how long that will last.

As soon as the Saudi’s see the King of Jordan beginning to slip into the same reactionary mode all the others have done, they may change their minds.

As has always been the case, there is strength in numbers and Jordan joining the GCC fits that concept.

So, Is Jordan in as much trouble as the article states?

The only answer to that question that matters is the King’s answer.

Does trouble in Jordan equate into future trouble for Israel and the PA issue?

Absolutely!

I said this way back in February.

The ‘end state’ of the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus / is violence in Israel and potentially a Regional War.   


SAUDI:

This article absolutely nails the issue at hand, but just spends way too much academic babble making the point.

Saudi is simply getting ready to appear as if they are simply enforcing ‘existing’ laws when the Arab Spring comes to Saudi.

It is a complete waste of time and will do nothing for the ‘hearts and minds’ campaign the Saudis so desperately need to win.

As a matter of fact, the feeble attempt to get such foolish laws on the books is a real indicator of just how entrenched Saudi is and will continue to be.

Saudi, Like Iran, will be slow to have the movement take roots inside the country, but it will happen and when it does, over aggressive ‘ laws’ will not save the government.

To put it simply, the laws this article talks about going to do nothing more than paint a picture of a desperate government that is paranoid beyond belief.

Oh ya.. … They are….

So, how does the MB play into this picture of Saudi’s future?

In reality, it will be no different than their actions in Eygpt, Syria, Jordan ect… ect..
They will set the ‘terms’ of change and those terms will be based on the values of the hardliners in Saudi.

Now; most would argue the hardliners already call many of the shots in Saudi.

The problem is, in their minds, it’s not good enough.

The King and the “Royals” are known for being too chummy with the West and that will be a huge part of their negotiation for “change”.

Moving Saudi to the far… far.. right.. is the goal and the King or his family can not survive such an event.

Now, like Egypt and Tunisia and Syria and Jordan, the MB will let the free thinking liberal Academics do all the hard…. Violent… bloody work and then sweep in to pick up the pieces.

Oh ya.. Ad Yemen to that list as well.

So, the short answer on the new Saudi ‘laws’; they simply show how out of touch Saudi is.

By the way, I find it interesting some say the King is taking such a hard stand on the Arab Spring issue to show the conservative religious leaders in his country how hard he is working to keep the movement from disrupting Saudi.

It’s that movement the MB is counting on…




EGYPT:

I talked about this latest round of protest in Egypt several times this week, but let me drive home the basic theme.

It’s the MB!!!!!

Surprised?

Do I sound Muslim Brotherhood Phobic yet?

I really hope so.

Let me remind everyone what the purpose of this latest round of violence is really all about.

Broken record time now I know!!!

The MB needs continued near anarchy in order to reach it’s next phase of the ‘ Master Plan’.

The people of Egypt must lose confidence in the military’s ability to keep the government / revolution / moving forward.

The MB may talk as if they support the Egyptian Military, but that will come to an end at the right moment in time.

With over eighty million people growing tired of Egypt sitting in a pool of  social and economic quicksand, the concept of someone or some party leading them out of the ditch and back to the ‘ Greatness” Egypt once was is a powerful tool.

The MB has and still plans on being that “ tool” for the people of Egypt.

Everyday, there is some MB talking head on Al Jazeera spouting out the same party line.

“ The people of Egypt must be heard”!!!

What’s the old line, “ The greater the lie, the more often you must tell it”.

If you could sneak into the ‘war room’ of the MB and see the “ Master Plan” timeline, I bet it would show they are right on track.

If the Egyptian Military changes anything about the pending elections, the MB will turn on them with a vengeance.

They are close to doing so now and the Egyptian Military knows it.

Egypt is not out of the danger zone by any stretch of the imagination, but the MB has just about everything going their way even when it doesn’t look so.

As a matter of fact, that is exactly what they want.

They want to remain mostly off the radar, but in control of the radar.

P.S; I still get a kick out of seeing some of them wearing baseball caps!!!

Gee.. they look like such nice, understanding guys…

The “reformist” movement within their ranks must really be making headway; said Little Red Ridding Hood to the Wolf.


IRAN:

Ok; here is the one article that doesn’t have the MB as the sinister center of attention..

As a matter of fact, this article relates to the one topic that could knock the whole MB
“ Master Plan” right off the map with little or no warning; although in the rubble of a regional war, I am confident the MB would be ready to stand up as the savior of the Arab / Muslim world… minus the smoldering hole that use to be called Iran.

If you were a Police Detective and you were assigned to figure out what happened to this Iranian Nuclear Scientist, what would be your first action?

If your answer was not, “I would investigate the Security detail assigned to this top government employee”, YOU ARE FIRED!!!

Before I even begin to talk about why this has happened, hint … a short conversation, I think we need to look at the complete inability of the Iranian Security Service to protect these individuals.

Remember the old saying, “fool me once shame on you…. Fool me twice … shame on me”..

Well, how about ‘Fool me four times?

I only hope the security around their plants is better than the ring of defense they place around their top scientific minds.

On the other hand, how good is good?

Lets not be foolish here.

The ability of the Iranian security detail to prevent the Israelis from killing key figures in Iran is non existent.

The Mosad is second to none when it comes to this type of mission.

Having said that, can anyone imagine the phone call to the Iranian leadership letting them know what had happened?

Where do you think the head of security for this detail is as of tonight?

Swimming with the fishes???

Ok, lets accept the complete ineptness of the Iranian security detachments.

Lets look at what this killing means.


The message sent by Israel here is crysital clear, not just to Iran, but to Russia and China as well.

Nothing is off the table when it comes to preventing Iran from obtaining nukes.

Now, as an after thought; can you imagine being one of the key nuclear scientists left in Iran?

Who starts your car?

Who test your food?

Do you ever stop at a stop light again?

How do you feel about the so called security detail assigned to keep you and your family safe?

Psychological Warfare at it’s finest.

What impact this has on the overall status of the nuclear program is a good question.

How does Iran respond is even a better question?

I have to wonder, how many of these really smart scientist are left in Iran?

Perhaps when we see a ‘ found dead’ North Korean or Pakistanian   smart guy in or out of Iran, we will begin to see our answer.

I am sure of one thing.

It doesn’t matter who is helping them and it doesn’t matter where they are.

If Israel decides they must die in order to keep the Iranian government from getting nukes, then someone is going to end up dead.

All right, what should we look for this week?

Syria is and will remain the hot topic for this week.

Defections and rumors of defections are continuing to grow.

Where there is smoke… there is fire.

The firefight inside the Military Academy is not just a rumor.

If defection is an issue inside a organization this close to the Assad government, then that “smoke’ is about to burst through and turn into visible flames.

Add to that the continuing reports of sectarian violence and Syria continues to fly apart.

The question remains, as it has for months, what does Iran do to keep it from happening?

Old answers I know, but the problems of the Middle East are not changing.

What is changing is the anger and desperation of the people living there.