Ok, this story has run perhaps a dozen times in the past ten
years and each time it's a modern day version of The Boy Who Cried Wolf!
The problem with that metaphor is the actual ending of the
old folk story..
The Wolf really did show up!!!!
Over the past twelve months, I have posted two or three times
on the topic of what to look for if Israel
was really preparing for a conflict with Iran .
Every time I've addressed this subject, I've ended the
conversation with the premise Israel
knows all too well what actions may tip it's hand.
Knowing this, the art of cloaking a nation's intentions can become
very...very.. complicated.
I won't go back into the discussion of the tactics of "
no notice vs scaled vs unlimited options, but it is important to readdress the
issue of what option is the most logical.
Simply put, small and fast is easier to conceal from your
enemies than large and complex.
Something else has changed since the last time I addressed
this issue and it's an extreamly important issue.
If we were to go back to the last time the rumor of a
pending attack by Israel was published, apx eight months ago, we would have
found an Iran that was much more convinced that even was some distance away
yet.
The primary reason this logic prevailed at that time was Iran 's belief The Israeli government would not
move without the support of the US .
It's my opinion, the most drastic change in the theory of
pending war between Iran and
Israel is Iran 's growing belief Israel
will attack without the US .
On top of this dire change, I would add the theory Iran may
actually be contemplating provoking this conflict to distract the Syrian,
Lebanese events.
Short answer... Iran may actually want the conflict
to take place.....
The foiled and honestly poorly executed Hezbollah / Qod /
operations of a few months ago was a dangerous message that many missed.
I said it then and I will say it again... I believe Iran attempted to goat Israel into attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon and
that attempt failed.
So, are we truly closer to a conflict between Iran and Israel ?
Yes.. I believe we are..
How close???
Someone is going to have to let Benjamin Netanyahu answer
that question.
