FORCING THE ISSUE AGAIN!!!

I see the news media is talking about how the US needs to start 'pushing' for the 'Tunisian Virus' to take hold in Iran.

 A few weeks ago, I posted the reasons why this is not a good an idea.

If you think the Mad Dog of Libya has lashed out at his people, " you ain't seen nothing yet";Great Band by the way / BTO.

Sometimes things sound good on the surface and as soon as they actually take place, it becomes evident what a HUGE mistake the act really was.

I'm not shying away from tearing down the new 'evil Empire'  in Iran, oh far from it!!!

If we, the West, are going to gamble on disruption operations in Iran, we need to be really ready for what could come about.

If the world thinks UBL's  Goons are something to worry about, it would be shocked by what Hezbollah would set out to do once Iran turns them lose.

If Iran truly believes the US and the West is setting out to take down the government by turning the 'Tunisian Virus' on them, they will turn Hezbollah lose throughout Europe and the US, not to mention the Middle East.

September 11th 2001 will look like  armature hour compared to the damage Hezbollah could inflict, worldwide.

So; think real hard when one of the 'talking heads' on CNN or FOX makes another half ass comment about protesters in Iran.

Like I said, I'm all for kicking the living sh... out of Iran, but we better be ready to do that if we are going to sign our name to pushing a revolt.



SAUDI SEES MORE 'SMOKE' ON THE HORIZON!! 

Oman has been taking 'baby steps' towards catching the 'Tunisian Virus' and today was just another 'sneeze' that makes the West nervous.   

Like Jordan and Bahrain, to the casual observer it appears it's the same issue; youth looking for 'Democracy' or whatever the media calls it now.

To the 'trained' observer, the signs of the 'weaponized' Virus are very apparent.  

Iran is getting better and better at masking their strategic goals with the cover story of youth in search of a better life. 

Manipulation is the name of  the game and the Iranians are becoming Masters of the art.

We could argue like the idiots on the "talking head shows' for days about how this might turn out or why it's really happening.

Frankly; that is a worn out conversation.

Trust old Col Dan when I tell you the Iranians are wining the struggle for control of the movement.

If you don't believe that, then I don't know what to tell you other than the Saudi's believe it with all their heart and soul.

A few days of 'quiet' in the Western / US media; stacked on top of Libya Civil War coverage, yet that is what it is, doesn't mean the fires in and around the Gulf States are not smoldering.

Trust me they are.

This week will be all about Libya, but do not take your eyes off of Bahrain and Oman and Saudi.

The Iranians and the Western market makers surly will not.

Al Jazera Vs Western Press Coverage

For several days now the media, both sides, sad we have to say that, but it's true, have been talking about the 'union unrest' in the US.

I've heard several of these idiots in the media trying to compare events in the Middle East and North Africa with ' Wisconsin' !

Here is the problem with this.

Yes we all know that 24/7/365/ news requires tons of stories that are not news worthy, but news stories are written by 'journalist', or at least they are supposed to be journalist, and a large portion of these folks are simply looking to climb the corporate  ladder.

For the ones that don't need to climb anymore, Christiana Ampoor, Spelling, and those like her, it's simply a matter of stroking their HUGE Egos.

So, if you can't find a good story or the one you are ridding is playing out, then make one up!!! 

Sad but true, this is a common practice in the US.

Why am I on this Soapbox?

All this week, as I was watching what was going on in Libya, the best, most accurate news I could find available to the general public, was Al Jazera!!! WHAT???  Yes Al Jezera. 

That should not be... but it's the truth.

Al Jazera 'Live' in English is simply getting the news on the events in North Africa and the Middle East out faster and with far greater detail.

Now I will tell you, I know more about Al Jazera than most, and their ability to 'shape' this event better, faster and more reliable than Western Press is not only frightening  for this event, but terrifying  for the future of news reporting in general.

Perception management is a goal of Al Jazera.

Profit  is the goal of US and Western Media.

There is a HUGE difference on the outcome.

If our media worries about the 'bottom line' / profit line of a story and Al Jazera only worries about 'perception management' then we will not understand the actions of allies or our enemies.

I understood, for the first time this week how powerful Al Jazera is becoming.

I hope someone else is starting to take notice as well.





SOCIAL DISORDER ARMED WITH SOCIAL NETWORKING

For several weeks now I've been talking about how this whole phenomenon I named the 'Tunisian Virus' would end up being manipulated by 'others'.

Well, today the signs of this taking place became very evident.

One example is the article I have attached the link to.

I know it is long and it rambles, but pay close attention to the theme!

The message is simple after you cut through all the distorted 'facts'. 'Distorted facts'... I love that!!!

If the world has been drifting towards a reality of the 'haves and the have-nots' and the have-nots have the means to communicate all across the world in the matter of a few seconds, then what is the future?

When someone states, " This is for our 'cause', I have a simple question.

How many 'causes' can the world afford?

What is the 'balance' of the world and how do we achieve that balance, much less sustain it?

My opinion is simple. Wake up each day with one simple goal;

Do no harm!

If I can't have what the person next to me has, what do I do about it?

I know one answer' " do no harm"!!!

That does not  translate into let harm be done to you or others!

understand the difference.

Read this article and think about where all of this 'discourse' is possibly heading.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/02/201122414315249621.html#



ARE WE ABOUT TO BE 'PLAYED'???

Imagine a meeting with Hezbollah, Hamas and the behest of Iran?

Imagine a plan to bring the " Tunisian Virus" to Israel?

Imagine a 'battle cry' of 'freedom' for all Arab people'!!!

Imagine the same scenes from Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Bahrain being broadcast from the 'West Bank'.

Sound out of the question?

If you think so, you are living in a world created by Walt Disney and I would like to make my reservation!

We keep applauding for the people of Egypt, Libya, Bahrain ect... ect...

Will we do the same when it is at the gates of Jerusalem?

Do we really believe that Israeli leadership will capitulate to an event they know was fabricated  by their mortal enemies?

Does all of this sound outrageous to you?

I hope not, because I am very afraid that is exactly where this entire journey may be heading.

I have said for weeks not our enemies would work hard to 'weaponize' the 'Tunisian Virus'.

I am growing convinced they have broke the code on how to make it happen.

Watch for Social network stories about 'day of rage' being called for in Israel.

It will not be called for quickly.

They will take their time setting this one up.

They must be ready for war if they become even remotely successful.

Israel will not go quietly into the darkness of history?

I have to think about this one a little more, but smart leaders need to get out in front of this issue as soon as possible.

SO. WE THINK ALL THESE COUNTRIES ARE READY FOR 'DEMOCRACY'???

How do you take a region of the world that has never seen 'Democracy' / our Western definition, and has been ruled autocratically for over a thousand years and BANG!!! Democracy!!!! Oh boy!!! It's taken us seven years to try this experiment with just one country, Iraq; I don't count Afghanistan like most rational people the experiment there is years away from a full test. Iraq has seen a coordinated, ok, somewhat coordinated, very lengthily and incredibly expensive process and in the long run it has a 50 /50 chance at best of becoming anything close to what we hoped it would. Ok; that's just ONE country... with the full resources of the US and it's allies. 

What are we dealing with in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, and so on and so on....?

Let's put this question in simpler terms.  

What will it take to see a successful 'Democratic' experience in all of these countries the Press is cheering for?

A economic structure based on a balanced, notice I didn't say completely 'just' Judicial system.

A Educational system that builds a common baseline for all categories of the society.

Yes several of these countries have "educational structure, but  many key elements are simply not there.

The tribal structure is a complete hindrance to 'Democracy' and good luck getting that message understood.

I could go on and on at the risk of sounding like one of the Ivey League 'Talking Heads' on CNN or FOX. Oh ya; can that one OLD Arabic Dude PLEASE cut those damn eyebrows of his. GOOD LORD!!

Folks; here is the simple--- UGLY truth.  'Democracy' is a fragile / complex / process that has to have so many key ingredients at just the right moments in time to be successful. Hell; look at how many times we have screwed it up in the US alone!

Don't get me wrong... I believe all people deserve to be free and equal. There are over six Billion people in this imperfect world and the struggle we are watching in the Arab world will probably not end the way we hope it would. 

Our real task is to be ready to deal with whatever comes of this historic event.

The world is changing as it should.. How do we deal with that change?

That is our challenge!



A DISASTROUS DAY!!

Libya provided one very crucial learning tool to some of the other Arab Nations today.

 Libya illustrated just how quickly bad decisions can lead to a complete disaster.

We need to understand just what really took place today in Libya.

The military split along lines of loyalty.

The elite Units even showed signs of defection.

This is critical because it could easily lead to intense fighting within the Libyan Military.

Something we have not seen in the past two months of the 'Tunisian Virus" event.

The next twelve to twenty-four hours cold lead to real 'unit on unit' action and I firmly believe this is why the Mad Dog's Son made the comment / warning / about Civil War coming to Libya.

Who owns the supply lines and who owns the ammo becomes the questions to look for answers.

The conscripted units are very poorly equipped and trained compared to the elite units.

The trick becomes what 'elite' units split and joint the revolt.

If key units do so, ground units; the Libyan Air force will most likely side with the dissidents, then the concept of a Civil War, all be it a short one, could come true.

No other Nation state nearby is going to risk getting involved given the turmoil of all of Northern Africa.

Bottom line; if Mommar, or however he spells his name this month, doesn't fall in the next twenty four hours, then things could get real ugly.

Oh ya; Saudi.... If they can't keep the lid on Bahrain, then the East coast of Saudi will get interesting.

We entering the next phase of the 'Tunisian Virus' and it's hard to tell where things are heading.

Can you say China??? Yep.   





RUMBLES IN CHINA??? FASCINATING!!!

'Jasmine Revolution'?

What a strange turn of events. China actually worrying about events in the Middle East spreading to mainland China.  

I go back to m original comments about the 'Tunisian Virus' and how nobody can predict what direction it may move.

One thing is becoming more and more clear.  The age of 'social networks' has changed how world events are viewed and now even take place. 

Strange how a few years ago with the onset of the Bird Flu scare, the world began to realize how fast such a 'virus' could and would spread.  The 'Global Community' is now able to get 'sick' not just from a physical virus, but from a social one as well.

With over 1 billion people and issues that run deep between multiple cultures and values in China, the impact of the 'Tunisian Virus' on China could be interesting to watch.  

Something else is really starting to amaze me. We seem to keep saying, " it's not likely these events in the Middle East and North Africa will impact stabilized countries such as Saudi and Kuwait".

Talking heads are shooting in the dark!!!

I said this a few days ago, but I will say it again.

Watch out for those who will try and start the same fires in the US.

Wisconsin and Ohio and a few others can be twisted in many different directions.

Last point for this evening.  

Sometimes the 'enemy' doesn't really care how reckless an event may become. Sometimes they don't care what the final product might be. They simply want to see damage done to the US and her allies.

The 'Tunisian Virus' continues to morph and where it is going could be anyone guess!!





LIBYA TAKEs THE "TUNISIAN VIRUS" TO A NEW LEVEL.

Heavy weapons are in use in Libya tonight. For those of you who know weapons, you know what it means to hear those words spoken!  If you are in a building behind what you think are safe walls, you are not!! If you are two miles away and you think you are safe, you are not!. Turning these weapons on the open public is just shy of Tiananmen Square in China. If you don't know what that means, your tax dollars got ripped off in Public School. 

What is different about Libya? Why is the violence able to reach such extreme levels? Simple, it's a country ruled by a Mad Man.  For all the talk of Mubarak being a dictator and a "really mean guy", he was a Patsy compared to Omar!!!

OBL and his movement HATE Omar and to take him down and further destabilize North Africa is a major achievement.

Here is what I find interesting.  We, the US seem to be in favor of this " freedom movement".  But do we really know what it's future will bring for the West?

Is loosing Omar a good thing?

Was losing Mubarak a good thing?

At what price to we wish freedom for everyone?

In 2011, the deffinition of "Freedom" could very well be "elect those who HATE us and all that we stand for". 

Helen Reddy songs and " love fest" will not keep America safe.

Oh ya; before I leave tonight; has anyone hear of any " Days of Rage" in China?? LMAO!!!

US vs IRAN. BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR!!

Ok; It's Friday night, so I will keep this short and sweat.

The topic is probably more relevant know than it has been for several years.

For several days now, many of the "talking heads" have been commenting on how the US seems to be using the "Tunisian Virus" to its advantage when dealing with Iran.

At first glance, Having the Secretary of State and even the President comment on Iran's "hypocritical" stance towards Egypt and events in Iran may seem like a smart move.

But, as I said last night, this whole concept needs to be analyzed for potential pitfalls.

If the Virus really does take hold in Iran and Iran's leadership, oh by the way the two of them don't really get along, begins to believe they may lose control, then we will enter a very dangerous perhaps even disastrous period for the Middle East. A wounded animal concept!

Why did this become far more important today compared to yesterday or anytime before?

Iran's Navel movement that was all over the news for the past two days is the reason.

Think about it.

Look at the news that has piled up on Israel for the past two months:

                Lebanon

                Egypt

                The US treatment of Mubarak ( a trusted ally)

                Weiki leaks that may very well bring down the Palestinian Government and bring Hamas into full rule.

                And now Iran openly  pushing the Brinksmanship envelope by sailing through the Suez Canal.   

Ok; now let's look at Iran:

                Iran knows the world pressure on their weapons program is creating an economic environment they cannot   sustain.

                Syria is closer to contemplating distancing itself from Iran then every before. They know a War on Iran will   bring ruin to Syria and most likely a change in leadership. They see the "talking going on between Syria                 and Saudi Arabia. " Those Arabs are up to something and we Persians know it". Oh ya; have I mentioned how the US has and  is completely missing the opportunity to play Arab against Persians? I will get to that    some other night.

                The "Green Party" is working hard every day to "Weaponize" the "Tunisian Virus". Just look at the events   this week in Iran?

So; let's cut to the chase. What does all of this mean?

If you can't see it, you are probably well on your way to being a politician!

Iran and Israel could very well be shoved into a conflict and we, the US, are doing the shoving. The frightening thing is, I'm not sure we know it.  





OK. IF YOU DO NOT RECOGNIZE THIS MAN, RETURN TO THE "SOAP" CHANNEL!!

KHADAFI AND THE TUNISIAN VIRUS

Two weeks ago I talked about our enemies trying desperately to figure out how to weaponize the "Tunisian Virus".

Two things are becoming apparent.

                1.  The "art" of weaponizing the "Virus" is far from being stabilized.  Khadafi is living proof!

                2.  The US is attempting to taken on the weaponization process towards Iran. The problem is, the second       and third order effects are far from understood. Placing pressure on Iran by stating they are hypocrites to              praise the acts in Egypt and crush the same acts in Iran is high risk maneuver. A panicked Iran is a         dangerous animal. Now; combine a panicked Iran with a very paranoid Israel, an Israel that day by day    believes more and more the US may not stick by their side and you have a real recipe for    disaster.

One thing remains very clear as of February 17th 2011; the future of the "Tunisian Virus" is very much up in the air.

IS THE TUNISIAN VIRUS COMING TO THE US?

I found something that really disturbed me today.

I was going  through my morning readings dealing with Mexico and came across an article about the potential reemergence of  the Zapatista National Liberation Army, or EZLN. the link below is to their website.

http://www.elkilombo.org/about-the-wars-a-fragment-of-the-first-letter-from-subcomandante-marcos-to-don-luis-villoro-beginning-the-correspondence-about-ethics-and-politics/

As I was reading the story on BorderlandBeat/  a great website for what is going on in Mexico, the hair on the back of my neck started to tingle.  Then it hit me; what if the "Tunisian Virus" was weaponized by a group like the Zapatista's?

I began to read the second part of the paper the Zap leader had just recently published and it was clear the US and the President, who they claim is not the legitimate President of Mexico;  some validity to that statement, were to blame for the hardships in Mexico to include the Drug violence. It's a  very well written document if you take the time to read it.

So let's assume, yes I know what "assume" means, a group like the Zapatistas and let's say the "American Communist Party" organize, " A day of rage" in the US. Lets say someone did that for lets say .... March 12th. HINT!!!

Let's assume one of the many possible themes for the US " day of rage" was the injustices towards Illegal Migrants; yep, I don't like the worried "alien". dumb word!!

Could this or something like this happen?

YEP!!!! EASY... 

As a matter of fact, I will be stunned if it doesn't happen.

Let's look at why and then who might push this type of event.

Why?

Let's take Mexico as an example. I have been studying and "watching" events in Mexico for over five years now. Nope! I'm not trying to write a book or be a "Talking Head" on Fox. It's part of my job and that is all we need to say:)

Let me make this real simple and I promise to start talking about the status of Mexico real soon. Trust me, it's a topic that needs immediate attention.   Mexico is closer now to social collapse now than in the past eighty years or so. No; I am not talking about " Failed Nation State Status". Lord knows the current leadership in this country doesn't want to hear those words, just ask the Secretary of State! Having said that, Mexico is so weakened by the current conflict over drugs, it has become susceptible to " outside" influences. I will go into more detail when I write about what is going on in Central and South America and why.   

So, along come our enemies looking for ways to distract and weaken the US.  They have watched the "Tunisian Virus" for over two months now and continue to figure out ways to use it to their ends.  

What they realize is "Social Networks" can provide the coordination needed to rally people in the streets.

The only other thing they need to use the Virus on the US is a worthy cause that holds emotional water in the US.

Yep; the "plight of the Illegal's and those who support them. You put the two together and you just may be able to light a large "fire" in the US.

Enter the Zaps.  Remember; The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend".

I could go into a great deal more detail on the concept, but I wanted to get the theory out there first.

" It can never happen here"!  Right!!!

The Titanic is unsinkable.  Japan would never attack the US. It will be years before Pakistan or India have a nuclear weapon; need I go on?

Paranoid? Maybe.

I have watched our enemies for a long time and I know how they think. 

I am worried and we need to at least be "thinking" about the issue.

I am going to watch the "chatter" about March 12th. You should too.   

GET THE FIRST SHOT OFF AND SHOOT THE CLOSE TARGETS FIRST.

It's a concept that holds true from an individual pulling the trigger all the way up to the actions of a Nation State!  The first shot of a gun fight sets the tone for the whole fight. Don't wait for the other side to decide when to shoot. Shoot the close-end threat first and work your way out.

Why does this hold true for Israel if, when, she goes to war?

Hezbollah and Hamas are the close-end threats and have been armed, by Iran, to a level that Israel cannot  afford to deal with as secondary targets.

Second tactical issue for Israel:

Don't wait for Hamas and Hezbollah to take any  proactive actions. Once Israel decides the time has come to deal with her threats, she must act and act swiftly. 

Third tactical issue that is probably the most emotional one:

Both these groups are going to hide key command and control nodes, as they have in the past, amongst the civilian population. A hard decision for Israel and one that will haunt her  military leaders for the rest of their lives. It's is the ugliness of War that makes avoiding war so critical, but once war is the only option, the ugliness cannot be avoided.

Fourth tactical issue:

Israel must be ready to fight multiple enemies at multiple locations as soon as she starts operations.  She has accomplished this before and she must be ready to accomplish it again only on a more dramatic scale than any time in her past.

Final tactical issue:

Don't try to occupy the enemies soil. Destroy their ability to harm the homeland and leave! I know this is not a doctrine currently accepted in the military halls of strategic education, but the 21st century is not the time of von Clausewitz!  Times change and Nation State doctrines must change. Occupation in the 21st century is a recipe for long term commitment. The world is too plugged in. It is too wired. The criticism of "occupation" can turn victory into defeat. Can you spell IRAQ/ AFGHANISTAN?  

Israel must do more than defeat the growing threats to her survival, she must show the world she understands the changes of the new 21st century  and will do what it takes to survive in such a world. Hard words I understand, but the process of defeating your enemies is built around defeating their belief they can defeat or destroy you as well as their tools of war and destruction.

Did I mention the next real war in the Middle East will be one unlike any in the past? Let's just pray the "goodbook" is wrong!



OPTIONS  AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF  OPTIONS!

If, and I think it's more a matter of when, the day comes the nation of Israel decides to take action to secure its survival, she will have several basic options to chose from.

1. total defeat  of her enemies' military options.

                Hard to do and an extreme risk of ever increasing escalation.

2. Neutralization of the most dangerous  options available to her enemies.

                Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran's nuclear weapons program. If you think Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program, then you are free to leave this conversation.

3.  Make an example of "someone" / Hamas / Hezbollah /.

                A theory of scalable conflict, but fraught with danger given the resolve of her current enemies.

4. Agree to UN "Peacekeeping Operations in areas such as the West bank and Gaza.

                Yep. I know; ridiculous, but I had to list the option.  

So; the question becomes, what "option" does Israel chose?

My opinion is Israel may just go for broke!!!  Yep, option 1.

Why?

Simple; limited campaigns have a low probability of doing any more than buying Israel two or three years of peace. 2006, 2008 are examples Israel has not forgotten.

Yes the price of "total warfare", and make no mistake, that is what we are talking about here, is frightening to say the least.

Israel knows what many of us suspect and have suspected for several years now; Israel is running out of time.

The light of day will not shine on a Nuclear Iran! 

Hamas, Hezbollah, Lebanon and yes even Egypt are tools in the overall game of survival for the people of Israel.

The more the Arabs rejoice in the ever increasing pressure of Israel, the more the government and the people of Israel understand what is truly at stake here.

What's the old saying, "a cornered animal is the most dangerous". This is not to imply Israel is a nation of animals, but the basic premise doesn't change. If "Options" are limited and survival is truly the issue at hand, then to estimate Israel will limit her actions would be a grievous error in the history of the 21st century.

Now; it is possible Israel will give perhaps a short lived attempt at "Brinksmanship", but do not hold your breath for any Israeli version of Chamberlin emerging from a Brinksmanship moment.

Much of Israel was nothing more than sand when the nation was formed. It will be nothing more than glass if she must give that same land up!

Dangerous times are ahead!

On Tuesday, I will get down to the tactical level of what Israel may have to do and how she just might be able to pull her "option" off without the whole region going up in flames; if only a few key "allies" will help her. Hint. More than just the US. A "new" Ally who is close by.