Wednesday, April 27, 2011















SCALABLE  'DISTRACTION'?
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011427152119845721.html
Was the sudden agreement between Fatah and Hamas the distraction Iran was looking to create?
Could it be Iran intended for the distraction event to be a scalable process there by giving them the option of turning off the distraction if it got out of hand or if it no longer became necessary?
Why do I consider this "Historic Agreement" to be a scalable event?
Hamas and Fatah coming to an agreement and doing so in Cairo would and did anger the Israeli government, yet most of the world realizes these are just words and the Arabs have had hundreds of 'agreements' on thousands of issues.
Short version; anouncing an agreement is a far cry from actually forming a 'joint government'.
Words are cheap especially in the Middle East.
Double cross is a common middle sir name there.
Yet, Iran knows simply having Hamas and Fatah announce such an event will draw  attention to the Israeli reaction.
The harder the Israeli government reacts, the more  attention it will get from the Arab world.
Thus; did Iran execute their desired 'distraction' without risking violent reaction?
My bet is this could be the case.
Could Iran initiate such a plan?
You bet!
The phone call may have gone something like this;  Abd al-Aziz Rantis gets a phone call and
in that phone call he is told by Iran  to make a temporary peace with Fatah and then make a big deal of the announcement and to do so in Cairo.
Sound far fetched?
Don't think it could not happen.
Ok; So why does this agreement worry Israel and as such get them to react creating a distraction?
Simple; Israel and those who really follow the Middle East, understand that a unified PA is the preliminary step needed to create the march on Israel for PA independence.
Abbas has known for months the youth of the PA wants the split to end in order to create a unified front for forcing Israel into a corner.
The loss of his protector Mubarak all but sealed Abbas' fate on resisting Hamas.
What changed was Hamas thinking they needed to meet Abbas halfway.
Iran changed that for them!
What does it all mean?
It means we are now closer than we have been to seeing, eventually, a Cairo type protest movement in the West Bank and Gaza.
Keeping that movement out of the streets of Israel will be difficult.
If you don't believe me, look at how quickly Benjamin Netanyahu reacted to the announcement today.