SNAPSHOT

WEEK OF 20 FEBRUARY 2016

 A few years back, I enjoyed posting a very simplistic weekly roundup of events in the Middle Eastern Region with a concentration on what took place that really mattered. They were short and to the point.

So, here we go again.

Turkey: Well, bad news for the new Sultan. It appears NATO has sent him a very clear message that any offensive action by Turkey into Syria will not invoke the special agreements of the NATO pack. To be honest, I’m not sure that answer was not exactly what he was looking for!   The Ottoman bottom-line has not changed in five years. They will not accept a Kurdistan on their border and the more they resist this process, the more violence will take place inside of Turkey.  The real change has come from the entrance of the Tsar.  If the Kurds can sit inside a protected location and continue events inside of Turkey, this scenario will have to come to a head. Final note on this topic. The Russians have long supported the Kurds, but the moment the Tsar no longer needs them, the second a deal is struck with the Ottoman Sultan, the Kurds will once again be left high and dry!  Betrayal is the mark everyone seems to place on the Kurds.

Saudi: Although the announcement of Northern Thunder was the topic of the week, the conversation over the real center of gravity for the region was held. Oil! Rumors of “agreements” then announcements to the contrary. The Tsar needs oil prices to at least start showing signs of rebounding and so when it was evident that Saudi and a few others were “talking” about freezing production, the Iranians were forced to the table. Well, as soon as the Saudi’s heard the Iranians might go along with frozen production numbers for the rest of 2016, yep, you guessed it, “we are not freezing our production”!  As I write this post, the price has fallen below 30 dollars a barrel once again. Oh by the way, if you think that is great news, then you probably are not aware of what the price of oil is doing to many of the banks in the world. Loans based on profits…read about it…..it’s not the good news many think it to be. Bottom line, the Saudis are stuck in a environment that has very few options and the rumors of Royal Family having internal disputes continue to grow.

Syria:   It’s not the first time in the five year uncivil war…. I don’t believe in the concept of a “Civil War”……there is nothing civil about war…..but, back to my point! It’s not the first time the utterly confusing issue of who is on whose side has popped up. One group is attacking another group… one group is joining an alliance with other groups…. and so on and so on!

Syria….. the modern day version of Mad Max and the Thunder Dome!   To top that off, right in the middle of the display of insanity, we witness, on YouTube of course, the Russians carpet bombing areas held by “ Terrorist…. Allies…..Neutral groups”….take your pick what you call them.  As complex as Syria has become, the real danger no longer extends from the issue of Assad. As I stated under the heading of Turkey, the real threat to the region and Europe revolves around the Kurds!  Yes, the Ottoman Sultan has officially heard from NATO leadership, but, does NATO, Europe / US / stand by and watch if the Tsar and the Sultan really come to blows?  The correct answer is, they can’t. As much as the US administration would love to have it all go away, it’s not going to happen, not any time soon.  Roosevelt was a progressive Liberal and he reluctantly took the US to war.  President Obama is most likely having nightmares of becoming the modern-day Roosevelt. That may sound dramatic, unfortunately it has the chance of being true.  

Weekly conclusion:

Many things are taking place in many parts of the world and most of it centers on the Middle East.  What was once a uncivil war has moved to the gates of a Religious war and even that concern is not the cornerstone of the threat.  An unstable Ottoman and a determined Russian Leader are the ingredients for the real world danger.