WHY IS CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST CLOSER NOW THAN IN THE PAST?
Several issues need to be addressed here.
1. The technology of warfare is drastically different now than just a few short years ago. The ability to inflict large scale damage is now possible with very small numbers of combatants. thus; well equipped, dedicated forces such as Hezbollah and Hamas can inflict more damage than the entire armies of Egypt and Syria thirty years ago.
2. The speed of conflict is now more of a factor than almost any time in the past; with the exception of nuclear warfare when we only had, or should I say have, apx 30 min to respond. If your enemy can attack with little or no warning, then your nation's ability to mobilize to the attack is severely limited. The days of planning on losing the first week or two weeks of a major conflict before marshalling the forces needed to counter attack are a page in history now. As an example, Israel needs several days to go from a cold start to a full mobilization footing. Given the advanced state of weaponry by not only nation states such as Iran, but proxy units such as Hezbollah and Hamas, the tactical advantage that has long been on Israel's side is now drastically reduced. Israel's option would become an issue of "disproportionality". To put it simply, in the early hours of a major, combined attack by multiple forces from different locations, Israel would have to resort to responding in a manner much more saver than the attack they were suffering. Thus; the disproportional response that would most likely lead to a fast escalation of the conflict. In fact, the only chance Israel may have to "level the playing field" would be to respond in just this fashion. Remember, the issue of technologically advanced enemies. The missile attacks alone on Israel could be devastating not only physically, but emotionally in just the first few hours of the conflict.
3. Israel is quickly reaching the classic point in history where, " a good defense is a strong offense". Ask yourself a simple question; can Israel gamble the existence of their nation by waiting for its enemies to make the first move; remembering the disadvantages they are soon facing-- surrounded by capable and dedicated enemies. Believe me when I tell you, the Israelis understand this paradox!
Tomorrow, I will talk about the tactical way this tragedy make take place.
Remember this; the art of negotiating "peace" requires two sides that wish to have peace. Is this really what the issue is in the Middle East? Do both sides want to coexist? What side to you hear almost daily saying the Zionist Regime is going to be struck from the earth? Do you really think that side wants peace?
Sadly; talking has seldom been the answer in warfare.
