WHAT IS HEZBOLLAH UP TO AND WHY?

As I continued to read the stories today about Hezbollah's actions in these villages along the Lebanese Syrian border, and became more and more concerned for what could really be taking place here.

As the attached article states, the territory in question is tactically and strategically and emotionally important Hezbollah.

Having said that, could there be more to the events are unfolding on Lebanese border?

To those that follow events in the region, let me pose a question.

What if............ what if Syria was attempting to open "second front" for the rebels to contend with?

Is there a possibility that the Syrian government and Iran are becoming desperate enough that the utilization of Hezbollah forces in the open has become a viable option?

I can assure you that Hezbollah  is a far more capable fighting force than the depleted and emotionally exhausted units of the Syrian military.

This week has seen the confirmation of far more advanced weapons going into the hands of the rebels and the impact of these weapons is being felt on a daily basis throughout Syria.

Some of last weeks and this weeks fighting in Damascus has resulted in the Syrian government beginning to truly realize that Damascus itself could fall or at best be divided in two.

In the tactics of conflict, is an absolute truth that enemy pulled into separate directions is far less capable than enemy allowed to concentrate on one objective.

Now, introducing Hezbollah forces in to this conflict without the world opinion blaming the Syrian government or  Hezbollah  leadership is a tricky procedure.

Realizing the aggressive nature of some of the more fanatical rebel organizations provides or potentially provides Syrian government with the "bait" that it needs for this operation.

Allowing the Shia Hezbollah forces to be seen simply defending defenseless Shia villagers from the fanatical rebels is obviously the picture the Syrian government would like to paint.

Once the reason for the conflict is established, the Hezbollah forces could dramatically change the battlefield environment for the rebel forces and this could be accomplished without an accusation of Iranian involvement.

Simply put, Hezbollah could be seen as the "protector" of Shia Lebanese citizens living on the border of Syria.

Everyone fully understands that this conflict could easily spiral out of control and spread even into Lebanon itself.

If the rebel forces are drawn into a sustaining conflict with well-organized, well-equipped and extremely capable Hezbollah units, then how effective with those same rebel units be in the siege of Damascus?

Am I grasping at straws here; perhaps!

As catastrophic is this concept might become, in the eyes of some opportunity could be knocking.

A Hezbollah force drawn into sustaining conflict with an ever more powerful rebels force with both sides being wrapped in sectarian conflict is an event that simply must deplete Hezbollah's capabilities to some degree.

But once again, the danger of such a plan on Iran and serious part is the territory where this conflict would take place.

If it is not the intention of Iran to draw Israel and to the conflict, than any operational actions by Hezbollah forces must be confined to area does not draw the anger of the IDF.

Okay, this theory may be a stretch, but the idea that this Sunni rebels are openly threatening to attack the Shia Hezbollah cannot be overlooked.

We also cannot ignore the reality that Hezbollah would never engage in such activities without guidance and even permission from the Iranians.

So, as you see, this is far more complex than a few villages along the Syrian Lebanese border.

Let's see what transpires in the next few days.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/hezbollah-shiites-syria.html