CULIACAN. WHAT HAPPENED, THAT MATTERS?
What took place in the capital of the Sinaloa region of Mexico yesterday? If you woke up this morning are read the news on BBC and even CNN, surprisingly enough, you saw a story about a sustained fight between a terrorist cartel and the Mexican authorities. So, what was the headline of the event? AMLO ordered the release of a cartel boss, a request made to him by his Defense Minister, to hear AMLO tell the story that is. Is that the story? No. The son of El Chapo, a war criminal in my book, was released, is that the story? No. By the way, why do I call El Chapo a war criminal, because Mexico has been fighting an insurgency war with the terrorist cartels for decades, that's why. I do agree, letting this kid lose is a terrible event for Mexico, but again, that's not the real issue. Okay, let me get down to the real issue and it's one the US better, finally, start paying attention to.
The fight:
What took place that led to the events in Culiacan? Was it an operation to snatch the kid? AMLO, as he runs for cover, now states it was the US's fault. The US wanted him and that is why Mexican units went into the Vampire's lair, Sinaloa. One thing is for sure, if this is the truth, the mainstream media in the US will put this event on Trump's shoulders. Yep, "It's Trump's fault". Oh ya, does anyone think for a minute the Mexican Military would design a mission to enter Culiacan with what appeared to be a lightly equipped, Company size unit? This is where I through the BS flag on the theory of "going after him". Now, did someone try to be a hero? Did some new organization attempt to show how relevant they have become? Be thinking Mexican National Gaurd at this point. If so, could that have gone wrong? Does ATF and Waco Texas ring a bell? Somebody, organization attempting to grandstand? maybe, but let me push past this question as I drive towards what really matters.
Several of the videos show the Mexican government units moving into the area. Now, when these videos where taken is a very important question. The most popular video shows what looks like a company-size unit, lightly supported, as in armored vehicles and aviation support, moving in a simi-low risk manner. Members not conducting bounding overwatch and not moving with weapons at the ready, that is an indication to me this "unit" was not under direct threat. It also appears the members have on different uniforms and again, that indicates this was not an organic unit event. Now, as important as this may end up being, for post operations analysis, it's not nearly as disturbing as what actually took place.
The Surrender: https://youtu.be/dhgxZl6qlT4
Watch this clip. To hear the story, this video shows terrorist cartel members shaking hands with members of the Mexican units. Now, I don't want to believe this. As one who has been predicting Mexico's slide into crisis, by the way, that is what this event is, I hope what we are seeing here are members of the Mexican units, military and or police, who had been responding to the event and they were simply in civilian clothes. I want to believe that is true, but let me tell you why I think the accusation of cartel members and Mexican unit's shaking hands may be true. Look at the non-standardization of weapons. Yes, some Mexican units don't have standardized equipment, but let me finish. Look at the gear. Absolutely no standardization. Look at the radios. Look at the age and physical fitness of the terrorist. It pains me to say this, but it appears the accusation of the two groups' meeting is true.
I started this section with the word, "Surrender". Is that what this video shows? the "surrender" of Mexican units to terrorist cartel members? Let me explain something here at a tactical level. If you are involved in armed, hostile operation, one with weapons being fired by all members, and one side is suddenly ordered to stop fighting, that only has one perception; "Surrender"! If the order was given to stop fighting the terrorist cartel members, then the perception of the terrorist and most of the Mexican public was and is, the Mexican government "surrendered".
Terms:
What were the "terms" of the ceasefire; yes, let's call it a ceasefire for the sake of argument. The kid and "others" are allowed to go free and in exchange, the enemy, the terrorist cartel members, will agree to stop killing people and terrorizing the city of Culiacan. That's it. That's the nuts and bolts of what took place right? Wrong! Who left? Did the terrorist cartel members leave Culiacan? Where did the kid and "others" go? Did the Mexican units pull back out of the city? Where is that part of this story? If "terms" were agreed upon, what took place as the ceasefire took hold? One thing is absolute. The government's / AMLO / version of this event will not come close to matching the rumors and stories that will come out of this event. You have heard me use the word embolden in the past. Just how "embolden" do you think the terrorist cartels, all of them, will become after this showdown? The Mexican government came to "terms" in order to reach a ceasefire with a terrorist cartel and in doing so, gave up control of a city of over 700k people. Think about that for a minute.
How did it happen:
How is it Mexican military and police units were fought to a standstill in Culican? I've addressed the issue of the inadequate size and configuration of the force responding, but what else led to this crisis for Mexico? Has something changed for the terrorist cartels? Yes, the answer is a resounding yes! Only a few days ago, I posted a story on the issue of the 14 slaughtered Mexican Police Officers. If you read my thoughts, then you know what I believe, changed. Remember the word, "emboldened"? Do you remember my post about the morale in the Mexican military and how AMLO was ordering units to not protect themselves when civilians, so-called civilians, attacked them? Don't remember? Search my blog and you will find what I am referring to.
The terrorist cartels are better armed and thus more capable than at any time in the past. The Telltuby government of AMLO has allowed these terrorists to gain a level of confidence they have never had before. But, that's not the most dangerous issue. As I have said in the past few months, tactics have changed. The ambush where the 14 Officers where butchered was not a typical event. Not only have the weapons changed, not only has emboldenedness increased, but tactics have also changed and that is the most dangerous change of all.
Guerrilla Warfare:
What conclusion did the on-scene Commander come to in Culican? Not only could he not take the city back from the terrorist cartel members, he could not hold the ground he was on. In military terms, he found himself in an unstainable position. Could he have held his ground long enough to wait for support? That depends on where his forces were, what capabilities they held organically and what "support" he could anticipate. By the time he gave his report back to his chain of command, the situation was out of control on just about every media outlet in Mexico. He was most likely asked, "what are your recommendations"? That would have been when he asked what was required of him? Was he to neutralize the violence taking place over the entire city? If so, then he would have requested a tremendous increase in manpower as well as other assets, aviation to start. What the Secretary of Defense realized was the stark reality of a deep fear in the Mexican government. They were going to attempt to take, by force, the city of Culican; the capital of a region in Mexico the government was paid or simply decided to ignore. That was a bridge too far! That was a task the government would ignore at all costs. It was most likely the on-scene Commander who informed his leadership of the "terms", terms that were probably accepted immediately. Once the government agreed to the "terms" of the ceasefire, it should have been the Commander who set the details of these "terms". Side Note: Given the level of corruption in the Mexican government, the Terrorist cartel may have had direct communications with the right authorities to make the "terms" acceptable. This is a reality the Mexican Military understands and it's a reality that may change the course of Mexico's future.
Why did I mention Guerrilla Warfare? Let me go back to the issue of changes in tactics. We know the city of Culican is a stronghold of this particular terrorist cartel. Not only is it a stronghold, it's has a government that is controlled by the same cartel. Remember, you don't have to control everyone, just key individuals. It's a Columbian way of drug business. Once this event was underway and the word was out a key leader was in custody, but still, in the city, the decision was quickly made to make the operation too painful for the Mexican government to accept. but again, why the term, Guerrilla Warfare? I will tell you why. Historically, yes, I know not all the time, most terrorist cartels/cells/ respond by firing from vehicles or standing near the vehicles. What happens when they not only own some small village or town but a city of over 700K? What capabilities, options does the federal government have when the fighting is going to be door to door, in a city that goes on for miles? Was a lesson learned by the terrorist cartels in Culicun? More than one my friends, more than one. Stop standing out in the middle of the street. Dismount the vehicles and fight from inside the surrounding buildings. make the event as violent as possible and hold on until the government panics. Have the terrorist cartels transitioned to Guerrilla Warfare? In reality, they have been doing so for the past several years. Is Culican an example of what the future may hold? This event was unique in a very important aspect. The city was in the heart of Vampire land. Culican is Dracula's lair. It will be hard to replicate without the density of forces this terrorist cartel organically held in Culican. Having said that, the new danger is absolute. Terrorists now understand the power of defending rather than assaulting. The standard ratio for military operations is estimated at 4 to 1. It takes 4 assaulting unit members to take out 1 defender. In reality, that number is ofter 10 or 15 to 1. What makes this discussion possible? the word, "Embolden".
Who is Watching:
This was and is a critical moment in time for Mexico. It will be nearly impossible for AMLO to stand up this coming Monday and give his typical morning, telltuby happy...happy speech to the press, a press that is going to keep asking questions now. " Mr. President. Who is in control of Culican? Do you believe the region belongs to the cartel? Are you hearing from the people of Culiacan? Do they feel abandon"? Yes, it's going to be hard for AMLO to change the attention span of the public and the press. As bad as that seems, a more dangerous issue now exists for the US. The whole world witnessed what took place. It may have been in Mexico, but it's in the US's "Backyard". Just how much trouble is Mexico in? It was pushed out of a city of over 700k Mexican citizens, not just some small little village in Michoacan.
Here is something to ponder. What is it China accuses the US of? Interfering in the events of Hong Kong.
What does Tehran wish more than anything? See the US in a crisis at home, that's what.
Does Hezbollah have ties to the terrorist cartels? Yes and have so for years.
Is Hezbollah desperate to find additional funds? Yes.
Would Beijing be willing to backdoor support a crisis in Mexico? Have you ever read China's concept of "Total, Unrestricted Warfare"?
If you think none of this will have anything to do with the events in Culiacan, then go back to watching Dancing with the Stars and just try to hope bad times go away.
The people of Mexico woke up to a new reality today. The Mexican government is led by a man who will surrender a city of over 700k people and do so as he states it's not his fault and he did it for the good of the people.
Culiacan. It seems to have become Mexico's version of Fallujah Iraq and yesterday, Muqtada al-Sadr was released.
