“THE IRANIAN EMPIRE IS
BACK”? WHAT?...... WHAT “EMPIRE”?
Far more often than not, I agree with and even admire the
writers that are posted on NOW, but this particular article by Hussain Abdul-
Hussain clearly misses the primary mark and perhaps for a logical reason. It’s
not unusual for the writers in the Middle East to look at the world through the
eyes of someone who was born and raised in the region. Actually, provincial
perspective is common, even in the world of information based on the internet. Are the Iranian’s or as I refer to them, the
Persians, attempting to leverage their position in the region? Yes, of course
they are. Again, not that uncommon in
the region. The struggle for dominance is a daily event in many parts of the
world. But, unfortunately for this
Author, this particular story is missing a key ingredient.
Question:
Given the complexity of the Middle East, given the absence
of US exceptionalism and leadership, is Iran really in a position to make
changes to the region or even the religion of over a billion people without
true Super Powers having a say in what Iran attempts? No. the short answer is
NO! Here is the explanation of the “NO” answer. The region is what it has been
since the end of the First World War. It’s political, economic chessboard
utilized by global powers. It’s a slice of the world that has deep religious
overtones on a majority of the world’s believers. It’s was, but is now a
decreasing cog in the economic engine that has run the motors of the world.
Oil! It’s for all of these reasons the region has not been allowed to decide
its own fate for centuries. So, two significant issues shape the actions of the
Middle East. Religion and oil! Iran’s ability to control ether of these two
topics will simply never be allowed. Granted, the issue of oil and the
dependency of several regional governments on oil is changing as I write this
post. The future of the Middle East being able to leverage oil prices has been
declining for several years now and some even predict the immanent collapse of
this influence. But, nothing is taking
place or is about to take place that would convince other powers in the world
to allow the Persians to simply take over the helm of the Middle Eastern Dhow!
Reality:
As much as many of the writers in the Middle East are
worried about the pending aggressiveness of the Iranians, the truth is, Iran is
still a Puppet, even if they don’t like it or don’t admit to the statement.
Where do the strings of the Puppet end? Moscow! Yes, Moscow. If you don’t
believe that, then you are missing the complexities of the game being played by
the real world powers. Just as many of the people in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon
may not admit the Persians control their fate, the average Persian on the
street most likely doesn’t realize the Moscow Puppet Master reality. “Soft
Power”. A 21st century topic that usually ends up in the writings of
some Western Military Officer trying to pass a Professional Military Education
class for the sake of being promoted. What most of us do understand is the
concept of “passive aggression”. What
the Tsar has been successful with executing on the Persians is a classic
example of ether topic. Not unlike the West, at least the West before the death
of American Exceptionalism, a classic plot of getting your Puppet addicted to
your military hardware, your “support” in many, often unforeseen, areas is
exactly what the Russians have accomplished with Iran. Do you need an example? Where would the fight
in Syria be without Russian support? Does anyone think that Iranian Air Force
could have accomplished anything near what the Russians have? Why do we never seen the Iranian fighters in
the skies working in a combined operation….ground…air… host nation operation?
Because they can’t. What they can do is hold demonstrations, parades and
flyovers. That is what they can do. Never…..EVER… let you enemy see your
vulnerability and the Iranian Air Force is a joke and thus exposing the truth
not only to those that already now, but to the world media, that would be
disastrous.
Bottom Line:
The Persians are not capable of dictating to the region what
is going to take place. The Persians may not admit it, but they are not the
masters of their own fate. The region is still too important to other true
world powers and the decisions on what will take place in the region will not
be made in the Persian capital. Yes, the Persians will be manipulated, knowing
and unknowingly by “others” and on the surface, it may appear they are calling
the shots. They are not and they will not. Here is what scares me. Sometime
unsupervised children do stupid things and the parents only find out after the
mess has been made. “Johnny… I thought told you to not color on your walls”?
What the Tsar uses the Persians for and what messes they make, that is the
dangerous part of this story.
