THE NEXT OPERATION INSIDE GAZA:

            Should I be addressing the findings of the Mueller report this morning? Should I be talking about the political circus that has gripped the US for over two years? Well, maybe, but if you have followed my post over the years, you know I spend little time on politics and the games that are played inside the US. Does it upset me? Yes. Do I focus on it? I try not to and, in that statement,, let me move on to something I think is important today, perhaps far more critical than many waking up in the US this morning realize.

Short Range, Medium Range, Long Range.

            When you live in a nation the size of Israel, what is the definition of “range”? From where those that wish to spread violence stand, any size rocket can have the results they crave. You can shoot a rifle and gain the world’s attention. For the people who live in Gaza, the ones that have nothing to do with rockets and firebomb balloons, every weapon in the IDF’s arsenal can inflict pain and tragedy. Take a small area that is full of people who are in a struggle just to live day to day, on both sides of this conflict, and insert those who only wish to propagate violence for the purpose of prestige or to fulfil the task of others and you have a recipe for what is about to happen yet again. Now, let me be very clear who I am talking about here. Those people who have inserted themselves inside of Gaza who have one purpose…..violence, those are the ones that have lit the fuse on the next major conflict inside of Gaza. Not the people in Gaza trying to find some level of medical help today. Not the people in Gaza who are trying to find a way to convince their children they can go to school today. Not the people in Gaza who have now heard the news stories or even witnessed the mobilization of IDF units on a scale larger than they have witnessed in the past. The people of Gaza who have no dreams of violence are now once again preparing for the worst. They are finding ways to gather their families and loved ones in a safe place in a city so small, hiding from the pending violence is impossible. These are the people who are falling to their knees and asking the Lord, “why”? These are people who share a commonality with the people in Israel. Fear. Fear of what is taking place and a fear of what may come once again. Are they correct? Is this time going to be different? Will the IDF strike empty buildings and then stop? This is where the real fear is coming from, for both sets of people know, the answer is most likely yes.

What is different this time:

            For all the talk of “range”, range is an issue that has little meaning to Israel. Where does the technology for these “homemade” rockets in Gaza come from? Who supplies the materials needed for such “homemade” weapons? Do the Mullahs and the Iranian military leaders truly believe Israel and the US don’t have the ability to analyze the structure of these weapons and determine their true origin? No, they are not that naive. What they are is confident. Confident the pressure on Israel to not over react is too great. Confident this latest event will be like all the others…… Tehran’s proxy fighters launch an improved weapon into Israel and the IDF is limited to nearly worthless counter air strikes on empty targets…..targets that still have value by the way, but that is a much more detailed discussion for another day. What the Mullahs are is confident. Well, let me tell you, in the history of warfare, many of the most critical errors made by “leaders” were based on Confidence.

            The Mullahs pulled Assad into a meeting without the Russians being in on the “plan”. Why? Simple, because the Mullahs have never intended on letting Moscow shape the future of Syria. Where they “confident” Moscow / Putin would overlook this embarrassment for the sake of not showing cracks in the Iranian, Russian so-called Alliance? Most likely. Was that a strategic level error on the Mullah’s part? OH… I can assure you it was. Have the Mullahs anticipated the US’s intent to limit Iran’s influence over Syria and Iraq. Yes. Have they convinced themselves unleashing one of their primary proxy fighters in Gaza is a way to distract the US? Remember what I said about the error of “Confidence”.

Desperation:

            In battle, what is just as dangerous as reckless “confidence”? Desperation! How long do you think it took for Moscow to let the Mullahs know ether verbally or non-verbally, Putin’s displeasure with the Assad stunt? Do the Iranian military commanders understand the impact of the Russians agreeing to let the US and “others” maneuver into a position to greatly change the capabilities of Iran inside of Iraq or Syria? Did the forced Assad trip potentially change the “game” in the region? By the way, if Assad is smart, “forced” is exactly how he better have shaped this trip when Putin called him……if Putin called him. What is the life expectancy of someone who double crosses Putin, when that someone is a proxy puppet? If the Mullahs are not over confident then they may very well be desperate. Yes, these limited rocket attacks have been taking place for some time now, but the targets they are reaching has become the issue and those targets are not being reached without the support and authority of the Mullahs. No one understands this better than Israel. So, what is said here? How does the so called leadership in Hamas respond to these attacks?

Abbas and Hamas:

            What is the one thing Abbas and Hamas have in common? Actually, it’s two things. Profit and power. The future wellbeing of those people who are praying and seeking shelter as I write this is not the concern of Abbas or Hamas. For Abbas, it’s yet another opportunity to show that Hamas cannot be trusted and has no compassion for the people of Gaza….. a slice of land Hamas took from Abbas. The death and destruction that might be about to take place in Gaza is good news to Abbas. Sick, but true. As for Hamas. There is only one set of individuals in Gaza they care about. The members of Hamas. The money and weapons they receive are based on their willingness to do someone else’s bidding. The daily thrill of walking the streets dressed like a Warrior is far more exciting to a young man than getting up at 5am and going to work in a bakery or some other manual labor job. The pool of Pawns is deep enough to keep the blood flowing for some time to come and the old men who manipulate Hamas know this.

            Look. I could go on and on, but the truth is simplistic if not sad. Gaza is yet another proxy for the ongoing struggles in the region. The more the Mullahs see Arab leaders talking to Israel, the more they are convinced their time is running out. Pulling the stunt with Assad may have set in motion events the old men in Tehran simply could not have anticipated. There can be only one question remaining. What does Israel do? Yes, it’s election time and yes Israeli citizens were injured. Does that play into this event? You bet it does? Did that factor into Tehran’s support for this latest attack? Yes. Do the old men in Tehran worry for the safety of the people in Gaza? No. Have they made a decision that could cost perhaps hundreds if not thousands of lives? Most likely. Here is the reality. The only side of this next event that will take into consideration the safety of the innocent, is Israel…..and guess what….the Arab Leaders know it. Playing games with Putin’s plans…………………………… A very risky concept for a group of old men trying to hang on to a 40 year old dream.

Dear Mullahs. Don’t believe for a minute, the move on Hamas is the only reaction you will witness from Moscow. Syria and Iraq had their courses changed with one trip by the Eye Doctor.

RAND CORPORATION REVIEW OF THE SELF-LICKING ICE-CREAM CONE.

            All right. My disclaimer upfront. RAND Corp. Have I read their “works for long? Try a few decades. Have I ever seen them come to the conclusion the US doesn’t need to spend huge  sums  of money and do so quickly? Nope. I mean, if you have followed them like I have, when was the last time you heard them say, “ In conclusion, the US need not worry for at least five to ten years and can reallocate defense spending to some other areas of society in the meantime”. Nope…..never! There’s always a pending crisis that must be averted by getting out the checkbook. Does RAND have a direct relationship with the West’s / US / Military Industrial Complex? Silly question, so let’s move on.

The latest report:

            Several sources addressed the latest RAND report  on the potential outcome of a war between the US and a combined China, Russian event and how the US would be beaten and beaten badly. I must confess, I’ve not read this latest report, but the comments I’ve have found lead me to believe it’s the same old song and dance. Spend and spend a lot and spend it quickly. Sidenote. Take a look sometime on who goes to work at RAND, or where ex-RAND members go. Enough said. Okay, so the scenario goes something like this. The Russians make a move on Ukraine and the Chinese make a move on Taiwan. It’s seems they both strike first and they both do so at nearly the same time. Now again, I’ve not read the report, yet, but I will tell you that is a huge “assumption” to have as a Starting point. It also appears the authors indicate just how bad the initial strikes are to the US’s ability to respond. Crippling seems to be the message. Alright, that’s where I toss the first BS flag.

Preparation for conflict:

            If you want to sell the idea of spending more money on more military hardware, then you have to paint a picture of threat and that threat has to be superior typically in strength or capability or both. For a report to indicate the US military would be caught unprepared for actions by the Chinese and Russians at the same time it would have to anticipate a complete failure on all intelligence operations on a global scale, to include US Allies. The discussion of losing US airbases before aircraft could be launched or moved can only be given a level of believability based upon a complete, “cold start” operation by both nations. Can the Russians and the Chinese coordinate a first Strike / Cold Start operation without enough indicators to warrant a higher alert status by Western forces? Someone better be able to show me that at the training and exercise level before I believe it. Look, again, I have not read this latest report, but the idea of losing such a significant percentage of combat capability from the very beginning seems to be self-serving, especially in the “you need to spend more money” business. It’s my opinion, the indicators of such a Force generation cannot be hidden from modern-day intelligence. Preparation actions are some of the primary areas watched 24/7/365 by the IC and I find it impossible to believe such a combined Russian/ Chinese event could take place with the US sitting on it’s hands. Yes…I  know… Pearl Harbor!

Allies who don’t fight:

            Not only does this report seem to count on US forces being caught totally off-guard, it also seems to make the assumption key NATO nations will decide not to get involved. Wow…..there’s an inserted scenario advantage for ya. If you need your report to come to the conclusion you are looking for, then you need to have key segments that support your hypothesis. When I read someone commenting about this segment of the report, I thought to myself, “ yep, RAND and the Self-Licking Ice-cream Cone”. Germany and France just take a knee and agree to whatever Moscow tells them. Okay, it might happen, but my bet is RAND may need to think that way to get the report to the conclusion they are paid to find, but I would also bet you that assumption is not made in Moscow. Likewise, Japan and the rest of the Pacific decides to watch the Dragon swallow Taiwan and simply look the other way. Well…you know…. You need key assumptions to get to where you want to go. The US and its Allies are caught totally off-guard and key Allies decide not to fight. Now let’s see… the goal here is to paint a picture of the US losing a conflict. Well, those are two great assumptions that could lead one to that conclusion. I really do need to read this report. Let’s take one last issue and see if we can toss cold water on this hot topic.

The Cost:

            The US and it’s Allies are caught totally off guard and are unable to defend key sites because of a lack of air defense assets, hint…that is what this report is all about. To make matters worse, Allies won’t fight. Got it. That sounds really grim and if I was a clueless member of congress I might be briefed by a few retired Generals and so called, “Experts” from the academic world and begin to panic. But you see, I’m not a clueless member of Congress and I’m not looking for that multi BILLION dollar plant to be built or expanded in my district and…..I’m not a President who is already more than willing to spend more money on the military for the sake of saying I’m doing so. Let me add a factor here that may have not made it into the report, but I will read it and find out.

            You are sitting at home. It’s 7pm EST and as you watch your favorite cable news network babble on about current political events in the US, a “ Special Report” comes in stating it appears a large scale attack is taking place against US forces in both the Pacific and Europe. Within a few hours, all the reports seem to be true and the internet also seems to be completely compromised as part of this attack. Where in the world do you think the world economy is the next morning? After a few dozen Talking Heads run to the major networks to give their opinion on what is taking place and what might be yet to come, who is going to work? Who is letting their kids go to school? Does Wall Street open? No. Do other world markets open? No. Are the stores in the US overrun with panic driven zombies? Yep. Are the major networks in full scale emotional meltdown? Yes. Is it Trump’s fault? Yep. So, that’s it? That’s the status of the world the Russians and the Chinese are looking for and all for the sake of regaining Taiwan and the Ukraine? Both China and the Russian devise a plan, work out details too complex to even mention here and all of this happens without the Intelligence Community knowing and all with the outcome of a collapsed world economy? Just how much funding did RAND receive to develop this plan? Does the US need a greater air defense network? Yes. Has the US been so focused on the “little wars / Terrorism/ that it’s spent nearly the last 20 years building a force that is not a true battlefield network? Yes. Does that mean the Chinese and the Russians are going to risk everything they have to take back two small slices of land? If the folks at RAND need to help convince US political so called leaders the nation needs to refocus, then I guess this report fits the last three or four that have come out.  I will go read this Self-licking Ice Cream Cone from RAND, if I can, but someone needs to prove to me the Russians and the Chinese are willing to risk everything over two previous territories. Let the Russians and the Chinese believe their national survival is at stake and some of this may come true, but someone better have some really hard “facts” to convince me, a guy who watched this level of interaction on a daily bases, the Chinese and the Russian could ever work hand in hand, right down to the war plan level. Who does Moscow fear more? The US or the Dragon? Who does the Dragon fear? A group of people on a small Island that may show 1.5 billion people a better way of life? Now………..that is a real problem, but not a problem the Russians are willing to help the Dragon solve.