LEBANON……… INTO THE STORM?
A few days have passed since the Saudi government announced
to withdrawal of military aid and financial support to Lebanon and the panic
has really begun to settle in, in Lebanon that is!
Hariris pending return, or at least the stories of his
return, is a sign of just how worried Lebanon’s Sunni population is over the
reality of the GCC / Saudi / walking away.
So, what happened?
What took place that brought about this change? Why would Saudi decide
to pull its support from a nation it sees as key to countering Iranian
expansion?
Two schools of thought and I buy into both of them.
- The financial cost of
continued support is being recalculated, given the price of oil.
- It was fairly clear that Hezbollah
was about to achieve its long standing goal of regaining the Presidency. By the way, Hezbollah’s comments about
Saudi and Northern Thunder will be recorded as a huge strategic error on
their part. Those were words Nasrallah would probably love to take back
right about now. Imagine the conversations after the phone rang and the Lebanese’s
government was informed the Saudi money was not coming?
So, what is the truth? What really happened? My bet is a combination
of the two issues stated above is closer to the truth than any single event.
Next question! What
does it mean and where does it lead?
Well, there is one worrying fact that needs to be addressed.
Why are the GCC members warning their citizens to leave? Not just avoid
traveling there, but actually leave Lebanon!
Again, two schools of thought.
- Now that it appears the
support of the GCC is fading, perhaps they feel their citizens will be the
target of Hezbollah retaliation? My opinion, maybe, but the risk of
Hezbollah openly targeting GCC citizens in Lebanon would be a huge risk to
their newly found “tolerable” status they have found in the West / US. Yes…
I said that! The fact of the matter is, most Sunnis in the region now
believe the West / US / has struck a new “relationship” with the Masers of
Hezbollah, Iran! Perception counts!
A move on the GCC population in Lebanon would put serious pressure on that
new found “Tolerable” status. Bottom line…… I don’t buy this one.
- Lebanon is not going to
become a battle ground for the IS members who are being pushed back from
the Syrian border. Russian fighter are not going to bomb IS units who have
crossed into Lebanon…… at least ……… I don’t think they will!! It could very well be the GCC / Saudi /
sees Lebanon as the one of the next battlegrounds, a battleground the Jordanians
are much more likely to not tolerate, not to mention Israel. How confident am I on this school of
thought? Well, I came up with it, so I think I would place my money on my theory
or some very close semblance.
As hard as it may seem, the region is actually becoming even
more destabilized. The statements and counterstatements are being lost amongst the
news stories that seem to pop up every few hours.
I see nothing that is set to calm any of this down. No
statements from Lebanon and no magic speeches from Hariri will lead to Saudi
and the GCC coming back into Lebanon’s world.
How far away is panic in Lebanon? Someone should get Hariri a better
bodyguard team than his Father had…………he’s going to need it. The storm in the
region is finally about to consume Lebanon!
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