ISRAEL'S TACTICAL REVIEW:

The combinations of what Israel could execute are so complex it would take a book just to begin to cover the issue.

As I did with Iran, I will stick to two major, tactical issues.

The tactics of a limited response:

The tactics of a total / fatal response:

Tactics / limited:

A " limited First Strike" option for Israel could be based on limiting civilian causalities and at the same time damaging the nuclear program in a significant manner. 

Avoiding the functional nuclear power plant, yet striking the facilities the IDF has identified as being part of the  nuclear weapons development would most likely be the most rational targeting concept.

This tactical targeting concept would allow Israel and honestly the rest of the world to control the escalation of the conflict while still giving  Israel the ability to take further action based upon Iran's response. Commonly known as a " Scalable response".

The danger and it's a real danger, of this concept is the " Near Target" reaction options of Iran's " Proxy" support.... Hezbollah... 

Even a limited strike by Israel on Iranian facilities could lead to an immediate retaliation by enemy forces virtually a mile away.

This " retaliation" might also be " limited" and that would be the challenge for Israel... to judge the acceptance level of a retaliation strike without ratcheting up the event uncontrollably.

The good news is, Israel has a great deal of experience in making this judgment call.  

Ok, the bottom line is this.... a " Limited First Strike" by Israel many not achieve the total destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program, but that only matters if that is the real strategic goal!

If the Israel goal is to make Iran and the world realize Israel is willing to do whatever it takes to insure it's survival, yet it's actions allowed the world one last chance to bring about change.. then this goal could very well be successful!

Total Response / Unlimited / asymmetric  conflict:

Before I get started, even though I used the term, "Unlimited" in the title of this section, I will leave out the option we all understand Israel has that is never spoken of.  

Why?

The results of this action are two things:

1.  Easy to explain tactically .. Iran is destroyed as a functional nation.

2.  The historical course of the Middle East would be totally unpredictable.

So, let's look at the " other" option Israel has for a Total Response.

Tactically speaking, Israel would most likely start such an event with a ballistic missile assault on key targets... targets that may not be based on Iran's nuclear program, but more likely based on Iran's ability to strike back  at Israel.

Short answer.... Tactically limited Iran's ballistic missile response to Israel.

A crippling fist strike would not be limited by a strategic political goal of giving the world time to convince Iran to change their course.

Achieving Air Supremacy of Iran would be the near simultaneously next tactical goal.

If Israel has learned anything from US actions in the Middle East in the past twenty years, it's the concept of Air Supremacy.

Destroy Iran's Ballistic capabilities and achieve Air Dominance. 

Air Dominance would be required over not just Iran, but Lebanon, Sinai  and perhaps Syria..  Depending on Assad's wisdom of picking the right time to abandon Iranian leadership... Yep.. ... Something the Saudi's and Jordan and Egypt might very well influence.  that is if Assad is still in power by then.... 

Air Supremacy over Iran would allow follow on air strikes at the same time making the Iranian government realize the critical position they would be in.

Neutralizing ground threats from inside Lebanon and Gaza and perhaps Syria would be the job of the IDF ground forces.

This is something they know how to execute all too well...

Simply put, the IAF's job would be Iran and the ground forces would take on the mission of the ground threat.

These are complex, large scale operations that would be very... very.. .difficult to hide from Iranian observers.... and spies!

If Israel's intention was to do a modern day concept of a " no notice " attack, it  will have to have the art of mobilization timed to flawless levels.

The easier and more traditional way of achieving this readiness is what was commonly called " Wire Runs" in the Korean Area of Operation.

Standing up your forces... pushing them to the edge of the launch points and then standing them back down...

This concept is exhausting.. expensive .. and still leads to very nervous enemies who by the way can duplicate the tactic.

SUMMARY:

Israel can make ether of these concepts work... limited... unrestricted...

Their final decision will most likely be based upon how dire they feel the circumstances have become.

What are the odds of Iran or Israel attacking each other and what tactic is the most likely course the world could see?

That's a good discussion for Friday!