S-300 TO SYRIA………………………….NOW WHAT?

Okay. The Russians and the Israelis had their meeting over how the IL20 was lost. At the end of the day, as I stated last week, it just gets harder and harder for the Russians to find a happy place with their involvement in Syria. Most of us gave the Russian approach two options. 1. Find a ‘off-ramp’ after a great deal of harsh words towards Israel. 2. Create or leverage another event to take the world’s eye of the event. I say the world’s eye, because I’m not sure the people back in Russia will be so easily distracted. The question becomes, what course of action did the Russians take? Like anything that comes from Moscow, its seems the answer is a hybrid of both options. The announcement of the S-300s sent off alarm bells in most Simi-informed communities and that news came on the heels of the most successful Terrorist attack in Iran in years. Are the two events related? Well, that depends on how complicated you believe Moscow can be. Is Russia capable of leveraging the two events to strengthen their position? Yes. If you can’t see how the attack in Iran can be folded into the larger picture of Moscow’s response to the downing of the IL20, then I’ll paint you a picture, but it may be one of those that you look at for hours and still not see the shape. Anyway, let me give this a shot.

Proxys:

            What is Iran to Russia? A tool, a proxy in the much larger struggle with the West. Why was Iran truly left out of the real deal making with Turkey over Idlib? Yep. Because they are nothing more than a proxy. Why have Iranian assets in Syria been allowed to be repeatedly targeted by Israel? Yep. Proxy. Why were the deals with Israel and the US over the status of Iranian forces in Southern Syrian struck without Tehran’s reps at the table? Yep. What needed to happen soon after the downing of the Russian aircraft to take the tension off the event? Yep……proxy. What is the major topic of the US and the UN meeting this week? Yep, the proxy. What is the most dangerous scenario for the entire region? Yep, a war with the proxy and Israel. Here’s an interesting side note. Did anyone here a statement about the attack in Iran being the work of the Zionist? Interesting! Where was the “ we shall destroy them” speeches from Tehran? Not a word about the actions of the “Jews”. Okay, back to the point. What good would it do Moscow to have a major attack take place in Iran? It could get the proxy leadership distracted while a much larger decision is being made. It could also inflame the proxy to the point that they do something stupid as their Master looks on. Yank the chain on one of your rabid dogs and get everyone looking at them as you change your plans somewhere else. Changing plans? If that is what is taking place in Syria, and I go back to my stuck in the mud theory, then that new change may be more dangerous than we think. By the way, could the Russians manipulate an attack in Iran? Piece of cake.

A New Course:

            S-300 into Syrian military hands? Well, maybe in the press release, but does anyone really think the fire control authority will rest outside the Russians? You can bet the IDF knows who will have launch authority. The statement is, “two weeks”. The new systems will be operational in two weeks and “new” electronic jamming operations will be put in place as well. What’s the message here and who is the message for? The downing event was a huge blow to the Moscow’s status in the world, an event worse than the Turkish incident. Just how much has this event changed the course for Moscow? Is Russia now truly prepared to keep Israel from striking Iranian assets in Syria? Is that the real change here? If that is true, and I’m not convinced it is, then the road to a regional war just became much shorter. If Israel can no longer control the flow of assets being moved from Iran into Hezbollah’s hands, then they have two courses of action; take out the supplier at the source or take out the receiving body. Before Moscow made the decision to deny Israel strikes into Syria, these two courses of action were reviewed, that, I can guarantee you. If it’s no longer about Iran’s humiliation of repeatedly being targeted by the IDF without any repercussions, and it is truly an event where the Russians have reached a loggerhead with Israel, then just how embolden will the Iranians become? If there is anything the Iranians need right now, it’s the ability to look as if they are in control of their own fate, besides, every once and a while, you must give your proxy a bone.

            This week is all about Iran and The Donald’s speech at the UN, at least that’s the way the region sees it. To the US, it’s all about a High School party 35 yrs ago. To Moscow, it’s about a major change of course in the Middle East. It’s about a drastic change of course with Israel. Is that where Russia is heading? The meeting between the two seemed to end with the Russians demanding the downing of the IL 20 was exclusively Israel’s fault? Do they really believe that? If they do, then the close airspace issue is for real. If they do, then Iran is free to move whatever they want, or at least that is what Tehran may believe. Tehran may believe they have top cover for extracting revenge for the attack on their parade, they love parades. If all of this madness is somehow rationalized inside Moscow, then a critical error has been made and it would be one I find it hard to believe the Russians would make. Resolve! Israel’s resolve to survive as a nation is at stake here. The risk of actually fighting it’s way through Russian controlled networks will be contemplated against the alternative; taking out the supplier or the receiving body. By the way, there is a huge risk on the Russian side that you can bet they have thought about. If the IDF is forced to neutralize Russia’s so called top of the line networks in Syria, then how do you sell them to the rest of the world? Declare the airspace closed and then let assets you are protecting get hit, and good luck selling those systems. Perhaps that’s why the announcement was for S300, and not S400s. The Russians are about to put the Iranians in a very dangerous position. Does Israel attack Russian manned networks, please don’t tell me Syrians will run the S300s, or do they attack Hezbollah? An Israeli conflict with Hezbollah? A gift the unstable government in Tehran would welcome. In their eyes, it’s always been, “Jews killing Arabs” as the Persians look on. Okay. Here is my last bet. If Russia gives this equipment to Syria and states Syria has control, then the IDF will strike Syrian military assets and wait to see what direction the air transport go home in with the body bags. By the way. Be careful what “expert” you listen to when they say the IDF could not have used the Russian UL20 as “Cover”. Their minds are stuck in old school…back in the day when the IDF would hide their radar signature behind another aircrafts. That is not what is being talked about here. The issue is, for the Russians, the Israelis flew close enough to the IL20 that the Syrian systems were afraid to shoot. That is the Russian version of the event and that is what has them willing to up the stakes now.