IS EVERYONE REALLY LOOKING FOR A "COMPROMISE"???
A the talk in the past few days has been about finding a
suitable replacement for Assad.
Someone the FSA, Russian, Turks, Iranians, GCC, and the rest
of the world can accept.
If that sounds like a tall order, it is.
Oh, by the way, it needs to be someone Assad and his clan
agree with as well, well... maybe!!
So, the name that is most batted around right now is ex
General Tlass!
Tlass is a Sunni, a definite plus when it comes to the Turks
and the Gulf States.
An issue Iran may be able to live with as long as he is more
of a Technocrat type Sunni than a Muslim Brother model politician.
From the Russian perspective, they are just looking for a
way out of a mess that has become way more complicated than they wanted.
The issue with Putin will be, Tlass can't look like he was a
US / Western idea!
If everyone wants Tlass to be the possible answer, then
everyone is going to have to let the Tsar feel like it was his compromise..
that's what huge Egos do to people!
As for the Turks, the guys who want to be the new regional
powerhouse, they are quickly growing more concerned about the Kurdistan issue
than they are the replacement for Assad.
If Tlass is someone that can put the Kurd movement back in
check, then he gets the Turk vote hands down.
From the US and Western perspective, anyone that can prevent
a region war is going to get support even if that person turns out to be a flop
down the road.
If that flop takes place after November of 2012, the US administration
will be willing to walk away.
The Saudis and the rest of the GCC may not be totally happy
with Tlass, at least that is the rumor right now, but they to could buy their
time much as they have done in Yemen by supporting him for now.
Ok, here goes the million dollar question.
Are all parties involved getting closer to finding a way out
of this crisis?
My bet is the answer is no.
Here is why I vote no.
First off, Assad gets a vote.
Now, rumors are flying he wants out, but I would say those
rumors exist on websites and not in Assad's mind.
The deal to get Assad to step down is going to have to be
complete amnesty for not only himself but for his loyal supporters.
That's a order the FSA and the SNC simply will not fill.
For all the talk of a Yemen type scenario, the days of Assad
getting a "deal" are gone!
Giving Assad a pass is quickly approaching the concept of
ending WWII by finding a home for Hitler and the Nazi party somewhere in South
America.
No, Assad can't go to Venezuela!
Chaves is on his death bed, he just doesn't believe it yet.
As soon as he is dead, Venezuela will have no opening for murderers
looking for a place to hide.
No, the Tsar won't take him.
He has no need for him if he falls from power.
So you see, finding someone to run Syria is an issue for
after Assad is gone.
The idea of finding someone and replacing Assad is absurd.
Now, the good news is, Russia or Iran could arrange for
Assad to wake up dead!
If that were to happen, then the move to replace him will
have to be a preset, pre agreed upon plan that can execute in a phone call.
If that is not the case, and I doubt it will be, then the
country will turn into a revenge filled version of Zombie Land..
The short story tonight is this.
If you are listening to all the hype of a possible " compromise"
you are probably setting yourself up for a real disappointment.
What is sure to happen is a bloodbath in Aleppo and that
will change the course of the conflict for the worse.
Stack on top of that bad news, the real threat of the Kurdish
uprising becoming an issue Turkey uses as an excuse to launch operations in Syria.
Turkish actions in Syria is exactly what Assad warned
against this week and it may be just what he is praying for.
The good news is, Tlass has time to keep growing his hair
out!
Lord knows what that look is all about!
