Sunday, October 16, 2011























SNAPSHOT ..  WEEK OF 16 OCT 2011

I would like to talk about the typical list of nations and events, but two issues are really worthy of giving a discussion all of their own.


SYRIA:

For several months now the talk of a potential Civil War as been on the minds of leaders.

It appears this talk is quickly becoming more and more a reality.

The stories of revolts and defections in the Syrian military and towns closing off neighborhoods based on ethnic and religious backgrounds continue to grow.

The ability of media organizations to find creditable individuals to interview and the recognition of the SNC has tipped the scales of believers and non believers when it comes to the worry of Civil War in Syria.

The seemingly desperate actions of the UN to request immediate consultation on events in Syria do nothing but inflame the perception Syria is sliding closer and closer to the edge of the abyss.

The paranoia level of people who only a few weeks ago stated the situation in Syria was manageable, is doing nothing but instilling panic in the Iranian government.

 Iran knows the Turks are pushing the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood issue harder and harder with each passing day and the support of Saudi is a forgone conclusion after the Ambassador plot event.

As a matter of fact, as I said just a few days ago, the Saudis will do their level best to bring " pain" to the Iranian government and that pain will come from the full support for Assad's downfall in Syria.

That in itself is amazing considering Saudi was quietly wishing Assad's government would survive just a few months ago.

All of this ties into the second issue I want to review today..... Iran and the unfolding threat of confrontation with Iran.






IRAN:

The article by DEBKA is full of the typical drama that makes DEBKA sell subscriptions, but it does make a statement I have not seen them make and it's one I have been talking about for months.

The idea that Iran is so desperate to save Assad and Syria that they would actually risk a " limited" war is getting a great deal more traction in the open press.

The second link talks to the issue of Saudi and their warning of Iranian supported violence going into next months Hajj.

The threat of violence is mentioned in the DEBKA link and the fact that Saudi would make such a public statement ads some validity to the threat.

How crazy would it be for Iran to support violence in Mecca durring the Hajj?

Two answers:
As crazy as plotting to assassinate the Saudi in the US.

As crazy as attacking Mecca with a Terrorist force for the second time; yes it has happened before... hundreds killed inside the most sacred of Muslim compounds.

The final link speaks to an issue that continues to worry me more and more.

For someone like Feinstein to talk about the possibility of Iran actually wanting a confrontation with the US is extremely alarming to me!

Feinstein is not your typical " Hawk" of US politics especially when it come to Iran.

As I said the other day, the US administration's response to the Ambassador's plot has many in the world wondering what is really going on.

The level of paranoia in the Middle East is at an all time high.

My friends who are there tell me they have never "felt" anything like what is going on now.

The tension in the air grows worse with each passing day.

Calling the Middle East a " Powder Keg" is, in their words, an understatement!

As the issues in the Middle East grow more and more complex, they continue to speed up thus not allowing rational, calm world leaders time to keep things from getting out of hand.

Most world leaders and the people they trust to listen to are in " reactive" mode and when the do speak, it makes more and more people paranoid.

I am fascinated with the impact of Social Media and Social Networking is having on day to day governance in the world.

The danger is, it seems world governments simply don't know how to deal with the speed at which  the world is moving.

On Monday, I will move back to talking about the Occupy movement and how it may impact the above topics or how the issues above may impact the Occupy movement.

Interesting stuff.