SIGNIFICANT EVENTS FROM THIS PAST WEEK

The articles listed below cover two major topics that pose a significant challenge for all of those interested in the Middle East.

1.  The so called reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah and what it means to the rest of the world / Israel.

2. Syria and the real possibility of a civil war.

As you read the first two articles, pay close attention to the issue of Egypt's involvement in the Hamas / Fatah issue.

I have no doubt the potential new leaders in Egypt are going to change the relationship with Israel and their interaction in the PA issue, so soon after their own period of upheaval, is puzzling to many.

 As I continued to read, I found two topics very disturbing.

A. Egypt announcing it will send a 'Peacekeeping Team' to Gaza!

B. Egypt is going to open the checkpoints into Gaza!  

Two very bold and emotional moves that I seriously doubt Israel was consulted on.

How Israel will react to all three of these events this  week, the two above and the agreement between Hamas and Fatah, will be very important to the near future of the region.

On Positive note; I don't believe for a moment Hamas and Fatah / PA / are going to hold hands and dance in the rain.

The problem will be the amount of damage they can do in a short period of time.

If you read the third article attached, you will begin to realize the Israelis are

preparing for the arrival of the ' Tunisian Virus'.

The PA youth has been demanding a unification of Hamas and Fatah for several months for the simple purpose of collectively marching on Israel!

As I said before, Iran would support this process for the simple reason it applies pressure on a region of the Middle East other than Syria and Iran.

Egypt's part in making this happen is nothing more than the MB showing they are going to shape the future of Egypt.

It all spells very bad news for the rest of the world and the price of oil in the near future.

You let the speculators think Cairo scale events may be about to take place in the West Bank and Gaza and the price of Oil will soar.

2. SYRIA:

The last story I have attached to this post talks to an dangerous sign inside of Syria.

For several days now I have been watching the story of large numbers of Syrian military defections and the insuring gun battle shortly there after.

I have no doubt the additional tanks that were dispatched to Deraa were a direct result of unit level defections.  

When Military organizations begin to fire on themselves, Civil War is close at hand.

We in the US know this, but more importantly Iran knows this!

So, the drag race is on..

Can Iran get the PA issue into the streets of Israel before Syria breaks down into a Civil War?

Let's see that this week will bring!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/28/palestinian-prime-minister-hamas-fatah

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/28/egypt-revolution-players-palestinian-pieces

http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=218274

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-if-the-rumours-and-conspiracies-are-true-then-president-assads-regime-is-on-the-road-to-civil-war-2275155.html

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011429155947718117.html



WILL  AHMADINEJAD  JUMP  TO  THE  "RESISTANCE "

I posted this about two weeks ago when I saw an article about tensions
between the two leaders in Iran.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/04/iranian-squabble-in-past-i-have.html

 As you read the story from this morning, start to wrap your mind around the
concept that Iran is growing more and more worried about the 'Tunisian
Virus' coming to Iran.

 Ahmadinejad  may be the 'setup guy' for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei if  Khamenei
decides Iran needs someone to blame  for possible unrest.

 To put it simply, Ahmadinejad maybe  tossed under the bus if things turn bad
in Iran.

 There has never been a great relationship between the two.

 You may not see Khamenei talking bad about Ahmadinejad  in the Iranian
press, not just yet, but the Supreme Council could start to hack away at
him.

 Look at the comments in this story about Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff!

 Ahmadinejad could be taking the blame for  Syria ineffectively dealing with
its issues.

 Yesterday I speculated Iran was behind the sudden signing between Hamas and
Fatah.

 I based that on my theory Iran is looking for a 'distraction' in the Middle
East to take the pressure off of events in Syria.

 The Hamas / Fatah announcement, especially being held in Cairo, is a
scalable  event that allows Iran to determine the amount of anxiety it
creates in the Middle East and the West.

 Put yesterday's announcement together with today's story and you potentially
have a real storm in the making.

Why would Ahmadinejad make the jump?

Two of the attached articles do a great job at depicting Ahmadinejad and his Chief of Staff as Persian Iranians, not just Muslims.

Ahmadinejad is no fool, he knows he is being set up to be a fall guy and the future of Iran / Persian Empire / not the Muslim / Shi  movement is his top concern.

He is fist and foremost a Nationalist and Khamenei knows it!

Both of them are trying to figure out how to survive what they both know is coming!

The 'Tunsian Virus'.

The Virus may provide them the opportunity to do each other in.

Both may no longer be trying to prevent the Virus from spreading to Iran.

They are both trying to 'weaponize' it to their advantage.

This all goes back to my most fundamental fear of events in the Middle East;
the fear Iran is growing more desperate by the day.

 Internal fighting between two key members of Iranian government is a real
indicator just how bad things are getting.

 http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/27/ahmadinejad-absence-fuels-talks-of-iran-political-crisis/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/27/iran-president-supreme-leader-rift

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/21/ahmadinejad-iran-successor-wikileaks



SCALABLE  'DISTRACTION'?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011427152119845721.html

Was the sudden agreement between Fatah and Hamas the distraction Iran was looking to create?

Could it be Iran intended for the distraction event to be a scalable process there by giving them the option of turning off the distraction if it got out of hand or if it no longer became necessary?

Why do I consider this "Historic Agreement" to be a scalable event?

Hamas and Fatah coming to an agreement and doing so in Cairo would and did anger the Israeli government, yet most of the world realizes these are just words and the Arabs have had hundreds of 'agreements' on thousands of issues.

Short version; anouncing an agreement is a far cry from actually forming a 'joint government'.

Words are cheap especially in the Middle East.

Double cross is a common middle sir name there.

Yet, Iran knows simply having Hamas and Fatah announce such an event will draw  attention to the Israeli reaction.

The harder the Israeli government reacts, the more  attention it will get from the Arab world.

Thus; did Iran execute their desired 'distraction' without risking violent reaction?

My bet is this could be the case.

Could Iran initiate such a plan?

You bet!

The phone call may have gone something like this;  Abd al-Aziz Rantis gets a phone call and

in that phone call he is told by Iran  to make a temporary peace with Fatah and then make a big deal of the announcement and to do so in Cairo.

Sound far fetched?

Don't think it could not happen.

Ok; So why does this agreement worry Israel and as such get them to react creating a distraction?

Simple; Israel and those who really follow the Middle East, understand that a unified PA is the preliminary step needed to create the march on Israel for PA independence.

Abbas has known for months the youth of the PA wants the split to end in order to create a unified front for forcing Israel into a corner.

The loss of his protector Mubarak all but sealed Abbas' fate on resisting Hamas.

What changed was Hamas thinking they needed to meet Abbas halfway.

Iran changed that for them!

What does it all mean?

It means we are now closer than we have been to seeing, eventually, a Cairo type protest movement in the West Bank and Gaza.

Keeping that movement out of the streets of Israel will be difficult.

If you don't believe me, look at how quickly Benjamin Netanyahu reacted to the announcement today.



CRACKS  IN  THE  SYRIAN  ARMOR!

Two predictions from yesterday's post are coming true.

1. The question of 'Why Libya and Not Syria'?

Without being disrespectful to the US leadership, the answers covered in this news story are weak at best and do not speak to the real issue.

I have always believed and always will believe the truth is the only thing you can tell the American public and the truth is Syria's direct ties to Iran make it far too dangerous to even contemplate taking any type of action.

The  threat of a 'Regional War' is what would be at stake.

I am not talking about an Iraqi or Afghanistan type event , not even a Desert Storm action.

To take action against Syria would almost certainly result is a regional war that would engulf all of the Middle East and create world wide repercussions.

This would be a conflict unlike anything the world has seen since 1968, 72 or perhaps WWII.

Iran would not stand for 'Western' actions on Syria and the retaliation would certainly involve Israel and the Gulf States.

Oil production would most likely come to a standstill.

Just think of the economic repercussions of a regional war in the Middle East?

So, when the Arab world ask, "why not Syria", the answer needs to be the truth, "There is more at stake than the freedom of the Syrian, Sunni, people".

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/04/26/u.s..libya.syria/index.html?iref=NS1

2.  Rumors of defections in the Syrian military.

As I said last night, I seriously doubt the Syrian military, mostly made up of Sunni members, will open murder the public, Sunni, of Syria.

Assad and Iran know this and how they deal with it is a real concern.

It's one of the key reasons the West can hold off on even contemplating 'action' against Syria.

One true statement in the report mention above is the fact that things are not totally out of control, yet!

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/04/25/syria.security.forces/index.html      

Another aspect of the Syrian military actions that cannot be overlooked is the possible mobilizatoin process.

The fact the Syrian Military is being utilized to some degree in response to civil unrest does not mean the entire 'machine' is being spun up!

The West and Israel is paying very close attention to what parts of the military are being utilized and what parts are being placed in ready status.

If part of the Syrian, Iranian plan to deal with this uprising is to prepare for a greater conflict, then parts of both militaries will be making preparations.

The good news is, this is very hard to do without the US and others recognizing what is going on.

Trust me, this issue is going to be watched very carefully.

Conclusion:

Syria's indicator needle is pointing down and moving towards pointing straight down!

Keep an eye on the stories of 'defections' over the next two or three days and be paying very close attention to what Friday afternoon, our time, brings to the news.

The US media is starting to catch on how important Syria is to the great Middle East issue and I am willing to bet the attention is going to shift more and more.

Iran really needs that ' distraction event' I have been predicting!



SYRIA  AND THE ARAB QUESTION TO THE WEST.

As I said last night, Assad has committed his reserves both politically and tactically.

When a civilian population sees Tanks in the streets and their barrels pointed at them not at an invading enemy, then a country is all but lost!   

I cannot believe Assad has made this decision without close consultation with Iran.

If Iran is willing to risk the loss of its closest 'proxy' ally, than it is probabbly preparing for other actons as well.

It will be clear within a day or two if the leadership and more importantly the  enlisted ranks, of the Syrian Military is going to stay with Assad's plan to murder his own people in mass.

Rumors were flying this evening of key military Commanders jumping ship!

When troops see 'leaders' walking away, they will not be far behind.

If these stories are true, the full panic of the Iranian government will be visible shortly afterwords.

Nothing and I mean nothing will be off the table for Iran if the Syrian military begins to fold.

In my opinion, the most dangerous period of the last four months is about to take place.

For the US and it's Allies, the Arab world, Sunni to be exact, is about to ask a key question.

" Why is Syria different from Libya"?

"Because it just is", will not be an answer the US or the UN can sell to the Arab world.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/25/fisk-assads-war-is-moving-perilously-close-to-lebanon/



THE WEEK AHEAD

Here is what I think we can look for over the next few days.

Syria:

            Assad has committed his political and strategic reserves in the past two days.

            With the regular military now being used to police major cities, it will be interesting to see how             Sunni members of the regular military respond to orders.

            If the Command and Control of these regular units comes into question, Assad may see violence  at a  level he has not witnessed yet.

            If military Commanders begin to jump sides, he will have to over commit his Brother's elite forces and that will leave Damascus open for more upheaval  

            Look for Iran to make a series of very bold comments about events in Syria to include how the            US is medaling in Syrian affairs.

            If Iran needs to seriously think about taken action in Syria, it will have to build the case quickly.

Yemen:

            All the news today seemed rather 'rosy', but I am skeptical the protestors will live  with a pledge to             leave some time soon.

            Yemen's resistance is a house divided and the UBL gang is going to have a vote on what the               future holds for Yemen.

            Bottom line; Yemen is far from out of the danger zone.

            It is more like Egypt and Tunisia in that the future may not be based on the old regime, but the       path to peace is a long ways off.

Libya:

            Key players in the world, mainly Russia and China, are exerting more and more influence on the    course of events.

            Libya can easily become the 'Proxy' war for Africa that many of us have predicted was going to   take place between, China and the US / West.

            Putin will put his two cents worth in as soon as he thinks the time is right.

            Libya is not just about Libya.

            Libya is quickly becoming about 'Africa'.

Iran:

            It's not going to be a good week for Iran!

            I am convinced they are now more desperate than they have been in the recent past.

            Syria is a total firestorm and the rooftops in Iran are starting to smoke!!!

            Hezbollah and or Hamas could take drastic actions this week.

            The question becomes where and how?

Conclusion:

This week could be one of the more dramatic periods  we have seen since the fall of Mubarak.



SYRIA GOES OVER THE EDGE!!

http://www.debka.com/article/20868/

Again; Debka is one of the few that get it.

Syria's Army is mostly Sunni and thus the ability to gun down people walking in a funeral march is not going to last long.

I'm not sure if Assad will make the decisions from here on out.

It could be he didn't make this one.

Iran, at the sake of sounding like a broken record here, cannot tolerate the 'Tunisian Virus' in Syria.

So what is going to happen and what should we be looking for?

Scenario number one:

Iran and Assad will ether come together on how to go forward after reaching the 'point of no return' on Friday, and trust me, they reached that point, or Assad will bolt from the Iranian influence and look for a lifeline from Saudi, Jordan or Turkey.

Assad could step up an announce the outsider threat in Syria was being propagated by Iran and not the new friends he may be trying to run to!

I know this sounds outrageous, but Assad is a very desperate man right now and Iran could care less about him as an individual and he knows that!

It will not save his rule, but it may allow him to exit with his family.

A Yemen type / GCC / deal is not out of the question.

Scenario number two:

Iran steps in to help Syria with the "outsider" threat!

A hugely emotional event for the rest of the Arab world that would send a earthquake along the lines of the Arab / Persian divide.

Iran could use the GCC movement into Bahrain as the pretext for moving 'support' units into Syria.

It is obvious the Syrian military and police do not have the skills the Iranians have when it comes to oppressing people.

The fact is, it is probably almost too late for Iran to take this action.  / Point of no return issue.

Scenario number three:

If you have been following my comments for the past month now, you know this next theory is the one I believe is the most likely course of action.

Iran, now more than ever, must have a distraction for what is going on in Syria.

DEBKA talked of a imminent Hezbollah attack on an Israeli target soon that would be a revenge attack for the killing of the Hezbollah leader two years ago.

That attack could very well be a massive event that will compel Israel to take drastic action.   

The timing of this threat advisory is suspect given the desperate state  of Iran and Syria.

Conclusion:

Syria cannot continue down the path it is currently on and Iran knows it.

Saudi and the GCC will be more worried about actions out of Iran than ever before.

Iran is feeling trapped and the world needs to be very careful!



MORE  SIGNS  OF  HOW  DEEP  THE  TROUBLE  IS  FOR  SYRIA

 

'Informers... overseers and campus Thugs!!

These are not the signs of a healthy University; these are the indications of a Nation on the brink of destruction.

As you read this story it is apparent how things in Syria continue to decay.

University Students are just a small fraction of the masses taking to the streets of Syria.

Today's protest are unaccounted for and will be until late tonight or early tomorrow morning given the lack of professional reporting from the country.

You can bet the numbers, as they are on most Fridays, will have been much larger than normal.

You can bet that  Syria's ability to deal with the protest are growing more limited by the day.

What this story does a great job of is painting a picture of how divided the youth of Syria has become.

If Syria learned one thing from Iran in 2009, it's how to take proactive actions on the University Campuses early in a protest.

The disruption of higher learning is a strategic sickness that Syria as a nation cannot survive.

Unlike Yemen, Syria will not be able to drag this uprising out for months.

The concept of waiting for the protester to get discouraged or bored will not work in Syria.

The people of Syria will not stand for months of prolonged violence and social disorder.

Assad knows his  options will become limited sooner than he thinks.

So what does this all mean?

Assad's grows more desperate by the day.

Will Iran come to his rescue or prepare to prevent the Virus from infecting Iran?

We have talked about this for three weeks now and I am more and more convinced Assad is going to fall from power.

Civil War as in Libya is not an option for a multitude of reasons.

Assad must take drastic, violent measures against his own people or he must give in to the demands.

There will be no ' half measures' for Syria.

Assad's problem is, he may not get to be the one that decides what happens in Syria.

Syria has many 'knives' inside it's elitist elements and someone striking a deal with Iran if Assad get's cold feet or tries to find new friends is not out of the question.

If we see him take another 'trip' next week, he is done!



BIG TROUBLE IN BIG CHINA!!!

 A few weeks ago, I wrote about China and the fear of the 'Tunisian Virus' spreading to the mainland.

It appears the leadership of China grows more worried about possibility with each passing day.

These 'crackdowns' are not new to China and they probably would not even make the news if it were not for the events of the Middle East and North Africa.

The fact of the matter is China is worried and they probably should be to some extent.

Many of the so called 'experts' are not predicting massive protest in China and I would tend to agree with them; for now!

Freedom is powerful stimulant to the Human Spirit and it doesn't have to be tied to economic stability.

China set course almost twenty years ago to emulate a capitalistic model for the sole purpose of growing the nation of China.

It chose the path for the simple reason of overtaking the West with it's own weapon; a capitalistic market economy.

The problem with the "Master Plan' was China forgot what economic prosperity would bring to the individuals of China. 

The desire to "prosper" not for the sake of the Motherland, but for the individual's sake.

China built the machine that has forged it to the forefront of the world economy.  

They have also built the social environment that could be China's downfall.

Once you give a person a car, they want a road.. a place to drive to.... a store to buy things in.. a school for their children... another car... so on and so on...

Recently; I've been reading more and more about China's economic engine and how it's about to 'overheat' and what they must do to cool things down.

Cooling things down equates into lowering expectations for the people of China.

We all see how well that's working in the US.

It won't go over any easier in China.

But, here is the big difference; China didn't do what they did for the people, their leaders did it to overtake the West.

Putting the people back in the box, is not going to go over real well.

So, should China be worried about the "Virus" coming to China?

Maybe not this month or even next month, but when their leaders close their eyes at night, they know in their hearts what is coming!

Facebook with 1.4 BILLION people...

How do you stop that?



 LEBANON  BEGINS TO LEAD THE WAY FOR THE ARABS.

Notice the reoccurring theme in this article.

 For the past two weeks Lebanese, March 14th followers,    have been
beating the drum of 'Iranian Persian' goals vs Arabic goals.

 I look for this tone to become more common from not only Lebanon, but Saudi
and the GCC as well.

 Painting a picture of 'outside' influence is the path already taken by
Saudi, but they have not begun the campaign of Persian Vs Arab.

 Persian Vs Arab logic allows the Saudis and the GCC ,as well as others such
as Jordan, to avoid the potential for Arab on Arab condoned violence.

 A sectarian war in the Middle East, and that is where many believe we are
heading, is not the ideal way to motivate the public to support the existing
governments. 

 Saudi and the other GCC members can avoid internal strife if they can sell
their populations on the idea of Iran pushing a Persian agenda that looks to enslave all the Arabs, Shi and Sunni alike.

 The classic example of  creating an outside threat to divert the public's
attention and rally them around the government is within the grasp of Saudi
and the GCC, but they need to begin this campaign quickly.

 Bahrain's expulsion of Lebanese members based upon possible ties to
Hezbollah was a quick attempt at creating the 'outsider'  campaign, but it
was poorly designed.

 The good news was a fast meeting between Lebanon, Hariri, and Bahrain
stopped this movement before Iran could turn it into a " Sunni picking on
the Shi" concept; although Iran did give this argument a shot.

 Iran is not going to sit back and let this happen without a fight.

 The Persians will look for a distraction and a HUGE one if needed.

 Don't forget my theory about the strategic reserves of Hamas and Hezbollah
if a War with Israel becomes the only way out for Iran.

As for Syria; Assad will need to pick his friends quickly.

To give up on Iran or to stick with Iran; that is the question for Syria.

Pulling control of Hezbollah from Iran could be a HUGE prize that Syria could bring with it; thus making a alliance with Saudi or Lebanon all the more appealing.

The danger will come if Iran thinks Syria may give this 'double cross' a try.

Lebanon is on to something and you can bet the other Arab Monarchies are
taking notes and talking all night long.

 http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/18/opinion-iranian-agenda-syria%e2%80%99s-bu
rden/


THE  IRANIAN  SQUABBLE

In the past I have mentioned Ahmadinejad and Khamenei don't always see things eye to eye.

The  attempted sacking of  Moslehi is very possibly another example of a crack in the relationship.

I'm not sold on the concept of him being hammered by Ahmadinejad because of the Stuxnet event.

If Ahmadinejad was going to take action based upon a perceived failure during the  computer hack, he would have done so several months ago.

To move on someone that is knowingly close to Khamenei at the same time the Middle East is boiling with discontent would not be a wise move.

Ahmadinejad of all people would know this, unless and I stress unless, he knows something we don't know!

If he has attempted to make a move on a loyal Khamenei supporter, then he did it for reasons other than punishment for the Stuxnet event.

So, what could be going on here?

1. Perhaps Moslehi has 'other' issues with Ahmadinejad and how he is handling the "Tunisian Virus"?

            If Iran takes some drastic action in the next few days or week, then that might give us our answer.

            Moslehi may not support how Ahmadinejad wants to react to the events in Syria or potentially in                Iran.

            The violence last week in Iran, in the Arab area of Iran, was not very well covered, but it took      place never the less. 

            Perhaps Moslehi was of the opinion that  shootings at this point in time were unwise?

            Perhaps he supported the shootings and Ahmadinejad did not?

            Remember, Moslehi was one of the key figures in suppressing the 2009 uprising in Iran.

2.  Maybe Ahmadinejad discovered Moslehi was doing something at the orders of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad was  not consulted?

            That would not be the first time that has happened.

One thing is for sure; the tension between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad is still there and my bet is it is getting worse every day.

One phone call from Khamenei to Qassim Suleimani, QOD Commander, and Ahmadinejad is toast!!

Remember what I have said in the past; an Iran in turmoil is not all good news.