NORTHERN THUNDER…… PART THREE.  WHAT WOULD NEED TO HAPPEN?

Although I must admit, I agree with those who say “Northern Thunder will not happen”, I like some, have spent the time to think through what it would take for the event to really take place.

The Alliance:  Alliances are a complex and often delicate version of political theatre, especially in the 21^st century.  Is this 20 nation “Alliance” truly a military commitment to each other?

Well, before everyone runs off with the theory the Arab nations version of a military alliance is suspect, need I remind anyone of the last two great “Alliances”? Desert Storm and the War on Terrorism “Alliance for Afghanistan and Iraq? Take the time to go look at the proportionality of these two “Alliances” and then pass judgement on the Arab’s version.

Okay, driving on!  Do any of these 20 countries, to include Saudi, have an attitude of, “in for a penny….in for pound”?  Those that they are preparing to do battle with absolutely do! All 20 of these countries have military leaders who have some level of doctrinal education and all of them clearly see who is behind the real target they seek! In order to remove the fox, you must get passed the Bear!

In the global game of “bluff”, the world’s most skilled player is the Tsar of Russia and I am convinced every member of this “Alliance” understands that point.

Here is my last comment on the topic of the Northern Thunder “Alliance”.

 It is far easier to verbally commit to an “Alliance” in front of a camera or at a podium, then to truly plunge into a regional war!  Commitment……… a word that has lost it’s meaning in the modern world.

Actions:  So, how does this Northern Thunder Juggernaut actually execute inside of Syria?

Does it start with the common tactic of a preemptive air campaign?

Well, that operation is already underway by both sides in Syria. So, if the target sets suddenly change and the tail flashes on the aircraft involved reflect the Saudis and the Turks, then what?

If anyone has been halfway awake in the past eight months, then they realize what Russian air defense systems have been moved into Syria. Now, what kind of Airpower do the Syrian Rebels have that would force the Russians to move such systems into Syria? If you don’t know the answer to that question, then you probably should stop here and go read something else!  NONE….. The answer is NONE!

Let’s rule out the Turks or the Saudis entering Syrian airspace, airspace covered by S 300 / 400!   Oh… before I forget to say it…………remember…none of the Western military powers are members of Northern Thunder….. they were not invited! 

So, what is the Northern Thunder first step? How does this campaign get started?  The Saudi’s have announced they would waiting for guidance from the US and that is a strange comment given the West / US / was not invited to be members of the force package. If a concept was developed for the employment of this complicated force, then not having a key member in on the planning would be a huge disadvantage. Did Saudi use Peninsula Shield plans? Perhaps, but the changes are immense and actually involve another geographic area of operation. Short answer…there is not a lot in common there.

Would Northern Thunder’s ground movement start from Jordan?  By the way, you can bet that an Iraqi entrance is not on the table. So, does Jordan become the jump off point, meaning they would be the buildup site? “In for a penny….in for a pound”? Just how stable is Jordan? Just what would be the Jordanian people’s reaction to plunging their country into a regional war…. A sectarian war?

Turkey? Does this Juggernaut launch from Turkey? If anyone is unstable enough to say yes, it’s the Ottoman Sultan! The question becomes, what of his military leaders? Do they drive their country into a conflict with the Tsar and the Persians? Does the Sultan dream of forcing NATO to come to his aid? Yep, Turkey is the most dangerous part of this entire scenario!

Even if Turkey was the only workable option for Northern Thunder, here is the next great problem.

Movement:   If Northern Thunder is truly a predatory action for hostilities in Syria, why is it taking place in North Eastern Saudi?  Is it a rear area dry run to work on force integration based on multinational forces? Its location is the real hint that Peninsula Shield was the “base plan”.

If we assume the current exercise area is not the force buildup area, then the next phase of this process would be to physically move to the “real” jump off area!  Rail heads….. Ports…… airfields…. Logistical support such as water……electricity….. the list goes on and on!!!!  Force Generation, as I said the other day, is a very complex concept and when you look at a force of this size…..well… I’m not sure who could pull that one off! 

Here is the other issue that would provide a huge obstacle to a true Northern Thunder event.

Disclosure.  The process of Force Generation on the scale of Northern Thunder creates an intelligence footprint so large that any enemy is completely ready by the time that force is actually operational.  In the months it would take to build this force, the Russians and the Iranians and the Iraqis would have Syria a virtual impenetrable fortress.  Bottom line….. absolutely no element of surprise…… No “Shock and Awe”…to be honest….. the US “ Shock and Awe” was more than anti climatic on all sides.   

So, let me review what the real issues appear to be for Northern Thunder.

1. Resolve of the “ Alliance”!
2. The Actions need to actually execute the campaign.
3. The logistics / movement challenges of being the aggressor in a conflict….remember the defender has the huge……huge advantage.

Can operation Northern Thunder truly be a prelude to an Arab military operation in Syria?

Well, it can be started if the resolve is there on the part of at least one member; hence the concern over the Sultan.

Will it actually be a 20 nation fighting force? I think we all know the answer to that question.    

My last comment on Northern Thunder until I see something of substance taking place.

It was not that long ago, the US and the West was demanding the Arabs “Stand Up” and take care of issues in their own region of world. “ Why are the Arabs doing something………why do we have to always fight for them”?  Yep…we have all heard it!

Now, are we all prepared for the consequences of the Arabs taking issues into their own hands?

Here is the final ultimate question and it will decide the future of the entire region and even Europe.

Who has more resolve… the Russians or the Arabs? 

Wars have a history of starting based upon a blunder……..but those blunders were almost always predicated by a prolonged period of political failures.