IRAN. THE FALL OF THE MULLAHS, AND THEN WHAT?

            Okay, before I get started, let me correct something from a few days ago. Somehow, and I really don’t know how, I labeled Egodan as a Shia. In the old days, this would have been called a, “Brain Fart”. Anyway, I was just sitting here, thinking about the situation with Turkey and it came to me, I had actually written that down. As Bill Clinton use to say, “mistakes have been made…. let’s just move on”😊. Wow, I wonder if that would work for Team Trump?

            Iran’s rulers. Are they closer to being tossed out than in the past? Is there really a chance the Mullahs’ may be given the boot? If you spent your day reading the economic news about Iran, you might just think there’s a chance. The price of an egg is the same for a military member’s family as it is for any other citizen and that makes economic conditions a very dangerous tool.  Can the Mullahs find a way to feed the entire military, with the IRGC families given priority of course, without the rest of the nation finding out? Nope. Do military members, even IRGC members, hear from their loved ones and friends how bad things are getting? Yes. Are things really getting as bad as some are reporting? The US Intelligence Community / IC / knows the answer to that question and that information is briefed at the White House every morning. Are members of Iran’s military growing tired of the conditions they are told to support?

Collapse.

            Just how fast could things fall apart in Iran? What would happen if the protesters in Tehran numbered in the tens of thousands and then hundreds of thousands? How long did it take for the government in Egypt, a nation that was far more stable than Iran currently is, to fall? Let me put this issue in a different perspective. What is the plan if the government in Iran disappears and does so quickly? Is that a better scenario than what took place in Syria or is it worse? Everyone is cheering for the fall of the Mullahs and everyone is cheering for the protestors, but what is the alternative? What is the “plan” incase the wildest dreams do come true? Who fills the void? Who chooses the Provisional Government that would need to be established? Does anyone think Moscow has had this conversation with the US? How many nations would want to have a say in a Post Mullah Iran? Everyone is praying for a collapse, but an old saying holds true, “Be careful what you ask for”.

Highjacked:

            What happened to the Arab Spring? It was…..yep….Highjacked. What happen to the Russian Revolution against the Tsar? Yep….highjacked. How many honest uprisings have resulted in some other movement taking advantage of the public uprising, only to end up with some new version of oppression? History is covered with this storyline. Who is sitting in the shadows as I right this, plotting to highjack the possible revolution in Iran? Worse yet, who is lining up to support these groups in the shadows? The possible courses of Actions on Iran are being modified by the US / IC/ world daily and you can rest assured, the same thing is taking place in Moscow, and multiple other capitals. Earlier, I asked the question, is Moscow and the US talking about this possibility? If you gut told you no, you’re probably right, but then again, I hope that’s not true and for the people of Iran, I pray that’s not true. If the big two are not talking about the possible fall of the Iranian government, then those I spoke of off in the shadows are going to have a huge advantage.

The List:

            Okay. Who are these groups that might be plotting the high jacking of the possible Iranian Revolution? Right off the top of my head, one name comes to mind. The Sultan! Yep…..Egodan!  Would he love to shape the future of a new Iranian government? Absolutely. Would he make a play for the Iranian public’s support based on the threat of “outside” interference”? Yes. Who would he be referring to? The US and even Moscow? Yes. Without Iran’s input, who is left to shape the future of Iraq and Syria? Who would be Hezbollah’s Puppet Master? What an opportunity for the Sultan to extend his rule. Do you think he will enter into an honest conversation with the US and or Russia about the topic? Not hardly. How soon would someone like the Sultan attempt to put such a plan into motion? Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t already have his fingers in the pie. Is there anyone he might collaborate with? Isn’t there a Sunni takes over the Shia Capital issue to think about here? Is Saudi and Israel just going to sit back and let everyone else rebuild the new Iran?

Saudi. 

For all the plotting the Sultan may be dreaming of, why wouldn’t Saudi be doing the same thing? Is there the possibility Saudi also has their fingers in the pie? You bet, and probably more than the Sultan. Now, has Saudi talked to anyone about a post Mullah Iran? Could the Kingdom and the US and or Moscow have at least approached the topic? What would a post Mullah Iran look like from the balconies of Riyadh? If you forget the possibility of a Trump Putin love fest, and come to the realization that no such thing exists, who would Saudi have this conversation with? How could the centerpiece of the Sunni faith be accepted by the rest of the Shia world if they were seen as molding the future of Iran? If the Sultan and the Saudis both have dreams of a Puppet government in Tehran, just how hard will those dreams clash? Would ether side be willing to fund / support yet another Civil War in the region? Have you been watching Syria for the past few years? Would they both be on the same side and then against each other? Could Syria be repeated? Religion is vital to the region, but it takes a backseat to egos and oil!

Israel.  

            Who are the best planners in the region? If you didn’t answer the Israelis, you’re fooling yourself. What would a post Mullah Iran look like to Israel? This time, the answer is much different. Two conditions would be given the highest priority. 1. The complete dismantling of the nuclear program, and I mean a real dismantling, not the joke signed in 2015. 2. The abandonment of Hezbollah.  Who is Hezbollah without Iran? What is the future of Lebanon without Hezbollah? Where would Hezbollah go? What would they turn into? My hunch is they would try their level best to convert the rest of their influence into a purely political party. Look at the IRA as the example here.

            So, there you have it. The Israeli vision of a new Iran is one that has no nuclear program. One that has no proxy fighters named Hezbollah and a border with Lebanon that is finally secured. No dreams of a puppet government in Tehran. Israel would leave that up to Saudi, the US and Moscow. The Sultan? Not so much.

            The end of the Mullahs would lead to one other issue that Israel would be forced to address. Yep. The Palestinian people. No threats from inside Lebanon. No parades in Tehran demanding the death of Israel. The whole issue of state-ship would come to the table and most likely it would come quickly. The pressure to find a true answer would be squarely on the shoulders of Israel.

The Region.

            Would the whole region stabilize with the fall of the Mullahs? That’s a very, very complex question. Do the Mullahs go quickly and peacefully? Does someone have a “plan” that can be agreed to if the fall does take place? If not, then the question about the region becomes one with a simple answer. There will be no peace. In reality, the region may see an even greater event than the destruction of Syria. Yep, out there in the shadows are the ones that will bring greater problems to the region and the world. Someone needs to come up with a plan and it needs to be one that is agreed to. Some may want the Mullahs to stay and the funds of China may come into play at some point, but if the people in Iran can’t buy eggs in two or three weeks, you better drop  that Chinese money from squadrons of Chinese Bombers.