Several times in the past few days, I've commented on the consequences
of events taking place near Israel .
The Syrian rounds landing in Israel ,
the consequences of Islamic Jihad groups firing rockets into Israel even after Hamas agrees to a so called
"Cease Fire" brokered by the MB, the perception issues
after the US
elections and finally the drive by Abbas to take the PA issue back to the UN.
All of these may have created a formulary that Israel simply
couldn't accept.
Ok, lets get down to brass tacks!
What is the intent of the actions taken today and more importantly,
what are the possible repercussions?
It's my opinion Israel has carefully weighed the consequences
of killing Jabari and is fully prepared for whatever may come from this event.
I don't believe this is the opening round of a larger
conflict dealing with the Iranian issue, but then again, the opponent always
gets a vote as well.
Yes, it's true Israel must deal with Hamas and Hezbollah
prior to any conflict with Iran and for that reason it might be argued this is
a classic, "road to war" operation; although tactically it doesn't
meet the requirements.
Could Israel
be sending a "Message" with this operation?
I would say that is at least one of the objectives, but the
question becomes, who is the message to?
Is the message, "Hamas" you control the Gaza Strip
and as such you are responsible for the actions of "other" groups on
you land"?
Yes, but this is not a new message, for Israel has been
making this statement for several years.
Is the message to the US ?
Is Israel
saying, " You may have your elections over in the US , but the issues of the Middle East / Iran / Hamas /
Hezbollah are still here"?
Again, I would have a hard time not believing this was not
part of the plan.
Before this "why" question gets a definitive
answer, the second question I listed above becomes paramount.
What are the repercussions?
For Hamas, the answer is simple, fight and be crushed;
negotiated and allow Abbas to regain total control of the Palestinian movement.
Nether answer is appealing to Hamas's leadership, but
reality is just that... reality.
The world cannot expect Israel to make the same tactical
errors it did in 2006 and 2008 with Hezbollah and Hamas.
For all the "talk" of support from other Arab
countries, the GCC states know they need Israel more than they need the Palestinian
statehood issue solved.
Without Israel ,
the GCC must stand alone against the aggression of the Persians.
That is a stance no Arab nation is willing to take tonight,
but again... reality is reality.
What of Turkey
you might ask?
Forget it!
Other than words and maybe a few worthless political motions
in the UN, the Turks / Ottomans / are far more concerned about the Kurd /
Syrian issue.
They simply don't have the will nor the time to take issue
with Israel
over the blunders of Hamas.
What of Hezbollah?
As much as they would love to lash out, they must be aware
of just how much resolve Israel
has at this moment in time.
Hezbollah has it's own "issues" staying in power
in Lebanon and trying to
keep Assad alive in Syria .
Ok, so how about Iran ?
Is Iran
ready for generalized warfare with Israel ?
Not on their own accord.
Persians destroying their future for the sake of Hamas and
the Palestinian statehood, it's not going to happen, at least not right now.
All of these potentials were taking into consideration long
before Israel
decided to kill Jabari.
Does that mean this will end just as Israel
"planned" it would?
Not even Israel
believes that outcome, but then again, they knew that from the beginning.
The message from Israel
tonight is clear; they are no longer going to allow the rhythm of the day to be
based upon radical factions in Gaza terrorizing Israel .
Hamas, has no easy answers tonight and even fewer
"real" friends..
When they ring the phones for help, they are going to be
hard pressed to get someone to answer.
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=291841
