KURDISH BID OF “INDEPENDENCE” AND THE SUM OF ALL FEARS!

From day one of the Arab Spring, many feared one outcome. Kurdistan! I addressed this over six years ago and I’ve never come off center on the topic. The Kurds! No group has manipulated more than the Kurds. Loyal to the West before and during Desert Shield and Storm. Loyalty that lead to them being gassed. When ISIS was on the march in Iraq, what one group stood in their way? Who held the line? Yep, the Kurds! Have the Kurdish groups placed bombs in New York? Have they hijacked aircraft? Have they made gruesome videos of Westerners having their heads sawed off? If you know the Kurds, then you know the answer to all of these questions.

PERSIANS AND OTTOMANS:

The destabilization of Iraq and Syria meant only one thing to the Iranians and the Turks. It’s one of the very few issues the Ottomans and the Persians have in common. The fear of the Kurds! The fear of a new nation called, Kurdistan! Both the Turks and Iranians own land the Kurds lay claim to and you can toss in Syria and Iraq while you are at it. The loss of land is valid reason to go to war and war is exactly what the Iranians and the Turks are willing to risk to prevent Kurdistan. Not only are the Ottomans and the Persians willing to risk war, the rest of the world believes their threats. Here is where it gets real complicated. Nether the Turks or the Iranians are willing to trust each other over the issue of the Kurds. They both want the nightmare of Kurdistan to go away and they are both willing to go to extreme measures to insure it never takes place, but how do they do that without risking the “other side” coming out on top? You see………………the Turks and the Iranians don’t like each other. The history of the Ottomans and the Persians is not a one of cooperation! Neither side wants the Kurds to form a nation state, but neither side is willing to let the other side gain a possible advantage in the region. So, it comes down to this. How do the Ottomans and the Persians deal with the issue of the Kurds with the real end- state being not letting the other guy be seen as the hero? No joint victory here! There is no room on the spotlight stage when it comes to the Sultan of Turkey! Oh……..by the way……….did I mention the Kurds are Sunni? What are the Turks……for the most part? What’s taking place in the region? Oh ya…. A religious, faction, Civil War.

PROXY:

Conflict by “proxy”. That is the 20^th and now 21^st Century way of large nations doing business. If the Kurds need to be neutralized, send in the Proxy fighters. Who are the proxy fighters for the Iranians? Shia Militias! What are the Kurds? Sunni?  Can anyone see where this is heading? Will the GCC support Shia Militias fighting the Kurds in Iraq, Syria, Iran, Tukey? Are the Saudis willing to let the Turks, a declared Ally, stand by and watch fellow Sunni’s be wiped out? How much satisfaction would the Saudi’s gain from observing the Kurds, tremendous fighters by the way, drive Iran crazy? Hint, all of this has been going on for several years now.

Proxy groups are the flavor of the day in the Middle East and that is not going to change. The issue of the Kurds and their drive for independence has been on the radar from day one. It’s the one thing the Turks and the Iranians truly fear. Does the issue of Kurdistan drive two old rivals into some type of delusional alliance? Who would that upset? How would it really unfold? How would the Sunni Arabs react? In just a few days, the Kurds are going to vote. No one is going to acknowledge the outcome. No one is going to stand up for the Kurds. Even those who would will be neutral at best. Here is where the Russians come in. The Iranians cannot be allowed to crush the Kurds. It’s up to the Russians to keep that from happening. As for the Turks! Well, Egodan, as I call him, see things one way. His way! If all that happens on the 25^th is a proclamation, a proclamation no one will recognize, then the Kurds will have to force the issue. Then what? A day doesn’t go by that the Middle East Region doesn’t become more and more complicated……………………….dangerous!