THE DEATH OF SOLEIMANI: NOW WHAT?
In the past nine years, how many times have I talked about this guy? I can’t even count. Some of us “tracked” his actions long before he became a name most will rush to write a book about now. Yep, I was country when country wasn’t cool:). For my overseas readers, you will have to look that metaphor up. Anyway, Friday, I had an outstanding conversation with Daniel Horowitz from Conservative Review. If you don’t know Dan’s show, he is one of the few who actually seeks the truth based on facts and not agendas. Great Guy. Here is the link to the show. https://omny.fm/shows/the-conservative-conscience-with-daniel-horowitz-1/ep-552-soleimani-s-demise-and-fighting-to-our-stre/embed
As you can imagine, the topic of the show was the assassination of Soleimani. Unlike everything you may have heard over and over and over again on US Main Stream Media, Dan and I got down to the real issues. Here is the great part about blogs. You can go even deeper than you can on long podcast. So, you really gave two choices. You can listen to the podcast linked above, or you can read this blog post. Ideally, in my opinion, you should do both!
The Myth:
Soleimani was a hero to the Iranian people. All you have to do is tune into US MSM and you will find out just what a wonderful guy Soleimani was. He was “loved”! Okay. Yes, he was loved, but let me break down who that “love” comes from.
Have you looked at any of the pictures the MSM has and is posting of Soleimani’s funeral? I’ve post several on twitter and all with the same comment. Do you see any of the youth of Iran in those pictures? Do you see any skinny jeans? Have you seen any young women who are not dressed like they are attending a funeral? Look, the answer is simple. The people making up these, “huge crowds” are military members, government employees, some forced to take part in the event, and most likely Basij....you know... the Thugs in street clothes that terrorize their own public. Simply put, these photos and videos are nothing more than Information Operations put together by Tehran, knowing the Western media Will eat it up as fast as Tehran can post them.
So ask yourself, why? Why are there no “real” people in these “huge crowds”? I will tell you why, because they didn’t love Soleimani. The reality is, most of them hated him! Now, that doesn’t fit with the, “We hate Trump” media, so what are you told? “HUGE CROWDS”. Oh...by the way, it’s not just the US media beating this, “HUGE CROWD” drum. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50997841
So, the myth of how, “loved” Soleimani was is just another indication of how those who I commonly call, Telatubbies, distort any event possible to further their own Progressive mentality. You know, “ If the US / Trump / wouldn’t have walked away from the nuclear treaty with Iran, we wouldn’t be in this crisis”. Yep, the truth never matters. It’s always about agendas.
Let me dive into another myth about Soleimani. “ The military loved him”! Um.....nope! If you know the region, then you now how prestige, status and authority play into top military leadership positions. Soleimani was the favorite Son of Khamenei and many of Soleimani’s peers had grown tired of that fact. His trips to Moscow worried not just his peers, jealous peers, but some inside Tehran as well. Not only was he the favorite Son of Khamenei, but he was Moscow’s Boy.....their go to guy......their insider! Was there resentment inside the Iranian military / IRGC and regular forces for Soleimani? You bet there was. They may have attended the “ HUGE CROWD” event, but once they sat down, crossed their legs and sipped their sugar with a little bit of tea, some of you know what I mean, the ones that didn’t like him, envied him, or just plane old hated him let their feelings be known. Soleimani......”loved”. Yes, by the old men who knew he would keep them in power and even some of them didn’t truly trust him. Too many trips to Moscow. So, there you have it. The myths about the Legend are not as mystical as the MSM would have you believe.
Panic, not Anger:
To hear the MSM and those they support tell the story, the “Anger” in Iran is unbelievable. Why, the “Iranians” are so upset we are heading for World War III! Hell, they may even invade! HIDE YOUR CHILDREN! Hysteria. It’s a concept the MSM loves. Why? Because if they can get people scared out of their minds, they will sit to listen to hours upon hours of “experts” on their networks, and that equates into commercial time....money! To here the MSM, CNN / MSNBC / tell the story, Trump has started another “endless war”. “Iran” is going to attack and it will be ugly!!! By the way, I always put Iran, when the media or the “experts” use the name, in quotes because to me, the “Iran” they use is far too generic. The vast majority of people in Iran don’t support Tehran; they actually hate the leaders in Tehran. Why do you think Khamenei had over 1500 of them gunned down in the streets in the past three months? So, I don’t refer to Khamenei and his Thugs as, “Iran”. It’s not an accurate statement. Okay. Back on point.
Is there “anger” in Tehran? Yes. Is there “anger” in Iran? No. What emotion truly rules the day inside Team Khamenei? Panic. Panic is the word I chose and I bet I’m more accurate than the MSM. Why panic you might ask? Simple. If there is one thing the US Intelligence Community/ IC/ understood it was this. Soleimani was the glue that holds Team Khameni in power. The MSM got one thing right. Soleimani was the key player in “Iran”. Are the old men in Tehran angry? Yes, but are they more focused on the repercussions of losing their Top Dog? You bet they are. Does that create panic? Oh ya, and I can only hope those that put the Courses of Action/ COAs in front of the US Commander in Chief made sure he understood that reality.
Is panic a good thing? That’s a great question, and I’m glad I took the time to ask myself that question. Is panic the same as wounded? In a non physical since, yes! When is an animal, and Team Khamenei are animals, the most dangerous? You guessed it, when they are wounded. When I put my military hat back on, I asked myself, “ was Soleimani a Center of Gravity for Tehran? My answer was based on “tracking” his actions for over 10 years. Yes! The US took out not just a killer, they destroyed Team Khamenei’s Center of Gravity, and that folks creates panic!
Now that we have identified Tehran / Team Khamenei is in panic mode, let’s take a minute to do some predictive analysis on what that panic may lead to. Can Tehran go to war with the US? Sure, but with what outcome? Yesterday, some low level, regional Commander mentioned US military ships in the region and the next thing you know, the MSM is blasting out a story and calling in more “experts” on just what might happen. Would Tehran actually order the military to engage the US Navy? Does Team Khamenei not understand his own military commandeers realize what that might lead to? At what point is such an order not in the interest of Iran’s future? At what point in time do the actions of a few old men in Tehran, old men who most of the rank and file of the military hate given the way their hometown families and friends are treated, simply become too much? Does Tehran truly trust the regular Iranian military? Why do you think they have the IRGC and al-Quds forces? The relationship between the IRGC and the regular military; now there is an interesting story. Just what options does Team Khamenei truly have? When the Military leadership leaves the room, and it’s just Khamenei, if he’s awake, and his close circle of friends, what is the conversation? I bet someone knows! Panic. It has so many variables.
If the old men in Tehran woke up and realized the US was truly prepared to end Tehran’s dreams in the region, what would they be willing to do? Would they factor in the pain and suffering of their citizens from a war with the US? Warning. This is the same leadership that just slaughtered over 1500 of their own for standing up to Tehran. The future or the welfare of the population is not top priority. Staying in power, that’s the goal, and if that goal is about to be lost, then what actions are off the table? None, the answer is none! Wait a minute. Did I just validate the statements by the hysteria loving MSM? No! You see, in order to have an endless war or even World War III, you have to have an enemy that can project such a conflict. Can Tehran inflict damage on the region? Yes. Can Tehran activate operatives in the US? Now, that’s a serious and frightening question, but the bottom line is this. Team Khamenei cannot set into motion World War III. Nobody is going to come to their aid and Team Khamenei knows that. At the end of such an event, Tehran’s leadership is dead, the country is in ruins and the US and the West have no desire to rebuild what would be left of Iran. Yes folks, Nation State Building is a topic for Historians and is not in the US’s future. Sorry NEOCONS. Building Democracies throughout the world can no longer be the plan. It cost too much and the US population doesn’t care about Democracy in post war hellholes! Destroy your enemy and leave them in a smoldering pile of ash, and let them know if you have to come back, it will be worse. That’s the future mentality the US must follow and I am positive many in the Iranian military know it. Following Team Khamenei off the edge of the world for the sake of Tehran’s elitist dreams is not the rallying issue for war.
What am I getting at here? Let me stop rambling and get right down to it. Tehran must chose between poking the Eagle too much and doing nothing. They must find an answer their military, a military that talks to Moscow everyday on the topic of who rules Iran after Khamenei, will support. The old men must avoid taking a path that makes it easier for Team Khamenei to be removed than it is to take a real beating from the US. Hint. What does Moscow see as the future of Iran? Simply put, push too hard and dreams are lost. Can Team Khamenei find a way to save face? More precisely, can they find someone or some proxy to do their dirty work for them? Can Hezbollah be made to take on the US or Israel? Problem. The mindset inside Hezbollah is not far off from that of the Iranian military. Push too much and everything you have is gone. It’s a fight they can start, but they cannot win, and all the parades with aviator sunglasses on will not change that reality. Hezbollah has a political branch and Hezbollah’s leadership knows why. You have to have an afterlife when the frightening is done. Just ask Jerry Adams about his IRA days. What options does Tehran truly have? If they order Hezbollah to dive on the sword, after countless losses in Syria, a place that meant nothing to Hezbollah families, and Hezbollah says, “ let me think about it”, then what? By the way, I understand Hamas has already put the word out they are not playing in this new game! Interesting. Funny the impact fear can have on a person’s decision making process. Score another one for Team Trump! Then what? Who next if not Hezbollah? Can Tehran dig up some of the very enemies they claim to have been fighting? Can they get Sunni radicals to push the US? How about the bands of Thugs in Iraq? The so called militias that are nothing more than guns for hire, will they do it? Most likely, but it’s hard to step outside right now and getting into a car seem to be very....very dangerous. If that’s not bad enough, being named as a “leader” seems to be what you do for someone you hate. Yes, Iraqi based militias fighting a proxy war with the US may be the new normal, but the response in Iraq may be changing as well. If the US pulls out from the locations troops are positioned and simply turns Iraq into a drone bombing range, then what? I will tell you what. The Militias will turn Iraq into an even deeper hellhole, but they won’t have US troops to IED or shell with cheap rockets. Yes, the US can turn Iraq into what Afghanistan should have stayed, a bombing range! No Nation State Building. No forming Democracies. In the end, no endless government funding stream for the corporations that support the NEOCONS. Fight from our strengths and let the enemy sit in their own ash. Does that meet the needs of Tehran? The US once again, really this time, leaving Iraq would be seen as a victory for Team Khamenei, but should the US care? Playing wack a mole is the process they cannot stop. Playing wack a mole in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and anywhere else Tehran thinks they are gaining ground, well, that’s a lot cheaper than playing the asymmetric / unconventional game most “experts” in DC push for.
Inside Threat:
Does Tehran have the option for “insider threats”? Yes and the bad news is, the US knows it. Unit 910? If you have never heard of this term, take the time to look it up.
Cartels. You remember those idiots right? You know, the ones that should be on the FTO list but aren’t. The same groups that have a history with Hezbollah. Think about it. If Hezbollah tells Team Khamenei, “we can’t do it, but we know a guy who will”, then what? Do we wait to a large amount of money is moved into an account right after a team of these cartel terrorist shoot up the city of Del Rio or El Paso?
Does anyone remember the speech given by Soleimani.
Can Team Khamenei pull this trigger? Would it need the approval of a reluctant military leadership? Would Team Trump avoid striking “Iran” over such a brazen attack inside the US? Is this inside threat a bridge too far as well? Just how panicked, desperate is Tehran? Someone better anticipate that issue and do so quickly. In the meantime, a few more rounds of Wack a Mole may keep the issue on the front burners for those who may decide getting rid of Team Khamenei is a better option. Did I say Moscow? Whoops!
