IS THIS THE FACE THAT WILL BRING DOWN ASSAD?

I have no doubt the story of this young boy’s death is a tragedy and I also have no doubt the story is being exploited by the opposition.

So; the question becomes, does this story light the fire of resistance for those that have sat on the sidelines?

The news of the opposition meeting in Turkey to form a form of provisional government is going to set Assad’s hair on fire.

As Assad watches the story of this young boy continue to grow in the international press, along with the knowledge Turkey is to the point of allowing the resistance to meet in Turkey, has to have him nearing the edge of panic at just the moment in time some in the press where saying Syria may have passed the crisis point.

What he needs to be asking himself is how a 13 year old boy is kept, questioned and then murdered by the government of Syria.

There is a difference between tyrannical government and pure evil..

Murdering a 13 year old is pure evil!!!

Sometime in the next twenty four hours or so, the Syrian government will have to put some story out stating they didn’t do it or ‘some other element of the resistance is responsible.

Assad can not even come close to excusing this vial act.

Tunisia had its merchant.

Iran had its young female student.

Syria may very well have its face of resistance.

The next day or two will tell.

SIDE NOTE:

Pay close attention to the stories about ‘refugees’ from Syria and the impact they are having on Lebanon’s border towns.

Tension is running high in Lebanon.

More and more of Lebanese leadership is talking about the dangers to Lebanon’s stability.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/05/201153185927813389.html



SPAIN:  AN INTERESTING MUTATION OF THE TUNISIAN VIRUS!

I’ve found several interesting aspects to the events in Spain.

Similarities to the Arab Spring?

I have had the opinion for several weeks now, the Arab Spring continues to be have several parties attempting to hijack it’s ‘cause’. 

        In the beginning most believed it was movement based on the social injustices of Tyrannical Governments and the suppression of freedom.

      Iran quickly attempted to take credit for the “Arab Uprising”, but most didn’t listen.

      The West was totally unprepared for the events in the Middle East and North Africa.

      China and Russia’s paranoia grew virtually overnight.   

      China began to fill its ‘holding centers’ with just about anyone who had a web page!

      Some looked to the West for support and some looked to the West with amazement!

      ‘Old Friends’ suddenly couldn’t get anyone to answer the phone.

       The Paranoia of the Western World was different than that of China and Russia, but paranoia was still there.

       The so called ‘experts’ where dying to get on the major networks ready to give their steadfast opinion of what the future would hold for the Middle East and North Africa.

       Who would fall and who would survive was the high paying opinioned topic from that point on.

       Whose Crystal Ball could tell the rest of the world what was going to happen?

      

       Was it the beginning of a Sectarian War in the Middle East?

      Was it going to lead to another Arab Israeli Conflict such at the 1967 war?

      Was this really all about Democracy and the human spirit’s drive to be free?

Spain is the attempted mutation of the next opportunistic group!

      The world of Socialistic academia has finally begun to play their part in the whole event; or so they hope!

      Tunisia and Egypt may have had a youthful element to their uprisings, but they were not founded in Department Chairs and Thesis papers.

Lord knows Yemen and Syria are not about College Professors inspiring young people to take to the streets, but that is not stopping the Socialist elite from taking their shot at owning the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus.

Spain and possibly other European Nations may now be on the “lets act like the Middle East” list.

One has to ask the question?

Has it become vogue to talk about “Revolution”?

Notice in the attached article, the author hints to ‘people in London and in France’.

I’m not sure anyone in Yemen gives a rat’s ass about College Kids in London or the unemployment rate of educated twenty year olds in France.

But, that won’t stop left leaning Professors from making their rather boring lives far more exciting by spinning up a large population of hormonal kids.

Spend a few impressionable years telling a 2/3^rd empty brain the future is bleak, and they will believe it.

Arab Fundamentalist have not corned the market on ‘brainwashing’ young people.

Spain is not the Middle East!

Spain is yet another example of how complex the 21^st century world is becoming.

Social injustice is a blanket statement that has different meanings to just about anyone that is asked.

Can we see a Sectarian War in the Middle East?

Yes!!

Can we see a conflict over the issue of Israel and the PA?

Yes!!

Can we see the  Gulf States / GCC / come under increasing pressure for ‘change’?

Yes!!

Can we see Universities try and become the breading ground for social unrest?

Yes!!

Oh ya; this is the one that has China up at night!!!

     

What we have with Spain, is the beginning of a new movement trying to hijack the “Arab Spring”.

And they have a powerful partner with Al Jazeera.

The funny thing is, this group doesn’t understand they will not exist in the version of the world the MB envisions.

Side note:

Spain’s Campus party resulted in the rightwing party gaining a great deal of power; a fact that did not go unnoticed by the author. 

That will not happen again!!

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/20115267575844603.html



ADD YEMEN TO THE ‘CIVIL WAR’ LIST:

Civil war is nothing new to Yemen, but this time around the repercussions are much different.

I said this a few nights ago, but the second Egypt announced Mubarak was going to stand trial; the decision was made for every other entrenched leader in the Middle East and North Africa.

By the way; I would recommend the media stop referring to just North Africa.

The ‘Tunisian Virus’ is showing signs of spreading to other sections of Africa and Europe.

Remember two nights ago I stated I was going to address the issue of Spain.

That will be tomorrow nights topic, but for now I’m going to stick with the issues of Yemen.

Tribal factions are the core issue in Yemen.

The issue of a leader who has been in power for years is simply an excuse to get the whole process going.

A little over a year ago, Yemen was on the brink of Civil War and it was Saudi that decided to take action to keep things from getting out of hand.

If anyone was foolish enough to think for a single minute the removal of Saleh was going to lead to some nirvana ‘Democracy’, then they should look into buying swampland in Arizona.

For those of you not failure with the state of Arizona, it’s a Desert!! NO SWAMP LAND!!

Yemen has every chance in the world of becoming the next Somalia.

 Yemen will become a nation of total anarchy with AQAP and other fanatical groups, running wild throughout the country side.

Saudi’s ability to stop a full scale Civil War in Yemen is simply unachievable.

The US’s counter terrorism operations there will come to a complete standstill.

The good news is, that will not stop the US from attacking training camps!!

Air Power is such a huge strategic advantage.

So, to put it simply, Yemen is the newest hotspot and it has no signs of cooling off for the foreseeable future.

Good news for Iran and Syria!!!

Everyday the media is not demanding to broadcast live from some Syrian town, the better off Assad and Iran are.

Iran will take advantage of events in Yemen for as long as it can.

The blood will flow and the media will be able to get to it; along with YOUTUBE and that is just what Iran and Syria need right now.

There is one possible temporary distraction coming this weekend.

Rafah!!!

I don’t anticipate violence from the events this Saturday, but I would not rule out Iran trying to make some event take place.

The MB in Egypt will go to great lengths to keep that from happening.

The media will cover the event, but without any pending blood, they will shift quickly back to Yemen.

Blood sells..



RAFAH AND HOW ISRAEL WILL REACT:

Egypt has stated for several months now they were going to reopen the entrance to Gaza at Rafah and now it appears it’s going to happen.

So what does it mean?

To Israel it is just another indicator of the changing relationship with Egypt.

It also means the tolerance of Hamas is going to shrink.

For Egypt it is a calculated risk that could draw the reaction of the US.

Egypt needs financial support and even if the President wants to give it to them, it must still make it past Congress.

For Hamas, it’s a classic example of ‘be careful what you ask for’.

So, will the Rafah become a benchmark event?

It’s hard to tell, but I will assure everyone it’s a dangerous indicator of where things are heading.

The question becomes, does anyone other than Egypt try to take advantage of the event?

We must assume Hamas knew of the pending announcement before Egypt went public.

We must assume Hamas and Egypt, by way of the MB, have a plan for this event.

Does the fact that Egypt decided to open this point into Gaza indicate the influence of the MB in Egyptian government?

Remember, there is no love between the Egyptian military and the MB; or at lease there didn’t use to be?



SNAPSHOT ON A FEW HOT ISSUES:

Yemen:

 As predicted, Yemen continued down a dangerous path in the past 24 hrs.

How much the fighting escalates is hard to tell right now, but the possibility of slowing things down anytime soon are not good.

If the fighting escalates to military units on military units, then the next phase could be much worse.

I don’t hold out much hope for Yemen calming down.

Israel:

Binyamin Netanyahu set what the Arab’s consider a very hard line for future talks with the PA.

To young members of  Hamas and other fanatical groups, the future is nothing but violence!

Morocco:

There is trouble brewing there and the indications are things could get worse in the near future.

The police there are taking a harder line than in the past few months and that could set in motion violent times.

Egypt:

Announcing Mubarak is gong to stand trial for the deaths of the protestors is going to entrench the GCC state’s leaders more than ever.

The announced new round of protest set for the end of the week may not get the reception from the military they have in the past.

The Egyptian government is about to reach it’s end with people marching in the streets.

The next round of protest could turn ugly.

Syria:

Over 1000 dead!

Egypt total was 800!!!

Today was somewhat quiet, but the indications are the protestors are starting to realize they are unorganized and a quiet spell could mean ‘ plotting’ is taking place.

I can assure you that is the opinion of the Assad administration.

No protest on the streets right now is a dangerous sign in the opinion of the Syrian government.

I am beginning to believe Syria is going to see Lebanon as a ‘breading ground’ for opposition plotting.

Lebanon:

Ok; this is the one that really has me worried!

Lebanon is facing a dangerous future on two fronts.

1. The future of Hezbollah depends on the future of Syria.
2. The sectarian sides continue to grow more paranoid of events in Syria.

Some many things could ignite the flames in Lebanon, I don’t see how this will not eventually happen.

The UN / STL issue will have to be carefully controlled or it might just push the country into civil war.

Several other countries with issues are boiling as I right this post.

The Middle East and North Africa are so volitie it is nearly impossible to track every issue.

Oh ya!

I will look at Spain in the next few days.

It appears someone is trying to get the ‘ Tunisian Virus’ spreading in Spain.



PAKISTAN AND THE LOSS OF CONFIDENCE:

There has been a lot of talk about so called embarrassment handed to the Pakistani  military after the UBL event.

I am not of the opinion the Pak military was embarrassed

They run their country with an iron fist and no one will ever convince me they had no idea the number one terrorist in the world was ¼ mile from their primary military academy.

So, the storyline may say they are ‘embarrassed’, but I have a different theory.

The Pak military is far more worried about losing the confidence of the Pak public!

Going to be at night thinking the Taliban or other fanatical groups can stay where they want or more importantly attack where they please is not the picture of the Pak public the military desires.

Confidence and the loss of such is the glue that holds a military together and a nation that leans on it’s military like Pakistan does needs ever ounce of ‘confidence’ it can manage.

The attack on the Navy base was not as bold as the one on the Military HQ a few years ago.

That attack was even more ‘embarrassing’ than the Navy base event.

Confidence or embarrassments are arguable topics, but the issue of ‘concern’ could be taking center stage.

The article attached brings up a legitimate concern.

Can the Pakistani military provide the level of protection required for a nuclear weapon’s program?

Who does this question apply to?

The Pak public?

The People of India?

The US and it’s Allies?

Let me give you the answer that really matters.

The question applies to the fanatical groups in and around Pakistan.

The concept of targeting an operation or location is based upon two simple factors.

1.      How important is the target to the cause and the owner of the target?

2.      Is it possible to execute the mission?

If the groups that would like to see the government of Pakistan fall believe the nuclear weapons program is a valuable enough target and they believe the target is approachable, then the threat equation goes way.. way .. up!!

Now, compound this problem with the concept of not actually having to be successful  achieving the mission.

Just imagine the CNN / FOX / Al Jazeera / news story of a nuke power plant under attack or a nuke weapons site being in a sixteen hour firefight like the one at the Pak Navy base?

Now, imagine this taking place during the middle of the trading day on Wall Street?

What is the definition of a ‘ successful mission’?

What is the confidence level after such an event taking place?

Like I said, I don’t buy the ‘embarrassed’ storyline with Pakistan, but I do worry about the confidence level the fanatics have in ‘embarrassing’ the Pak Military.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c7c98ddc-84b1-11e0-afcb-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1N8ckQ4qe



WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN THE COMING WEEK!

You can just about take your pick of what situation this week is worthy of keeping track of.

The following article talks to the issue of Yemen and in my opinion, Yemen could be the story of the coming week.

The GCC is beyond the point of frustration with Saleh.

The lines are drawn and I am afraid the possibility of Civil War has gone way up.

Saudi now must consider yet another dramatic move such as it did in Bahrain.

A Civil War in Yemen is not a new event to Saudi, but the stability of the region is much less predictable than in the past.

Last year when Saudi sent troops to ‘support’ Yemen in a regional conflict along Saudi’s border, things didn’t go real well!

Saudi military members becoming prisoners was embarrassing to say the least.

Does Yemen have the potential to destabilize the GCC?

No, but Oman, would have to consider the ramifications of a border that is not secure.

So, what does Yemen really mean to the rest of the world?

Two issues:

1. The US is knee deep in a fight against UBL fanatics in Yemen and the badguys stand to make great gains from the pending collapsed government.

2. Iran gets exactly what it wants and needs; an event on the Saudi border that ties up the GCC and keeps them on Defense.

So; what else needs to be watched this week?

The usual issues are there and although they didn’t pop up today, they will make headlines soon.

SYRIA:

Syria  simply can’t resist killing people and nothing seems to indicate they intend on stopping. 

If the Kurds will show up in force, the momentum of the protest could change, but the Kurds learned a hard lesson after Desert Storm when it comes to Western Support.

Assad may have gained some level of assurance from the US President’s speech this last week; A sad truth that again goes back to the issue of ‘Perception’.

Confidence is a dangerous  concept for Assad right now. 

ISRAEL and the PA:

Some are of the opinion the President of the US is back peddling after the reactions to his speech this week.

Regardless, the 1967 border issue has proven to be far too emotional for not just the PA but for Israel as well.

As I said last week, ‘ Deeds before Words’ seems to be the demand from the Arabs.

Impasse is the norm and the norm is not going to change anytime soon.

IRAN:

 Not sure what level of information will come out  this week on the   on going power struggle.

With all the external issues around Iran, mainly Syria, and the persistent internal  struggle, Iran is not in a position to respond to more bad news.

I am still of  the opinion, unlike many watching the Middle East, the events of the ‘ Tunisian Virus’ are not all going Iran’s way!

When Iran states they are ‘founders of the Arab Spring’, I see that as nothing more than smoke and mirrors topped off with wishful thinking.

The ability for the ‘youth’ of Iran to standup against the Government is growing with each passing day.

The rest of the world may not see it, but it is taking place.

Iran knows all too well, they are on the verge of social strife and that is a huge factor behind the internal power struggle.

This week will be no different from the past twenty; with the exception we may add Yemen to the open conflict list.

The entire Middle East continues to simmer, but it’s reaching a bowling point sooner than most think!

EGYPT AND ISRAEL:

 BOTH HAVE HUGE PROBLEMS COMING UP.

Two articles that both talk to two very important issues.

The first one is very well written, but misses a key point / question I think needs to be asked.

It is not unusual a military that is the last agency standing after a complete collapse of government does a poor job of playing Legislative, Judicial leader?

Remember, the Egyptian Military is not known for being a compassionate organization, even before the revolution.

A military that is fatigued and lacking sound civilian leadership is not going to be in a position of serving the public in a positive way.

The guidance for day to day actions are probably less than detailed.

The realization that they are the last stand between an Egypt and total social disorder could account for the overreaction to even the most simplistic of events.

A nation of laws and civil order, as oppressive as they were, is a drastic change to where they stand today.

The social dreamers, who somehow thought they were going to tear down the government of Egypt and simply walk into a utopia of freedoms and tranquility, are getting a hard lesson in reality.

I have no doubt the author of this article is correct in the assumption many of those arrested are not guilty of anything other than being near a very paranoid military.

Right now in Egypt, if you look like a Duck and walk like a Duck and Sound like a Duck, the military is going to think you are a Duck!

Ok, enough of sticking up for the last truly functional structure of the Egyptian Government.

I do have one observation I think the author of this story has missed.

It seems the collection of ‘arrested / detained’ individuals is concentrated with left leaning non traditional Muslim groups.

Of all the people who have been reportedly rounded up in the past three months, I wonder how many are members of the Muslim Brotherhood?

In the minds of the military leadership, it could very well be they see the destruction of Egypt’s government based on a left leaning, academic movement.

Remember how many Times I have talked about the power of perception?

If the ‘perception’ of the Egyptian military is such, then it would make sense this is the category of people they would target.

Those they feel are responsible for the destruction, and destruction is what key military leaders believe has happened,  must not be allowed to make matters worse.

Does this answer the question as to why the MB on  is not being targeted?

Well, it could be they are not making  the ‘noise’ the young modern Egyptians are and as such, they are not on the ‘radar’.

It could also be  the MB influence inside the Egyptian Military has dramatically changed.

It is common knowledge the MB was a primary target of the military during the Mubarak years.

But, as  Egypt began to fall into the social abyss, desperate leaders may have joined forces to save Egypt from a fate riviling ‘ Mad Max’.

“ The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend”.

Sound far fetched, not count it out.

The one thing the old Egyptian Military and the MB have in common and always have had in common is being ruthless and being conservative.

 Egypt is in a terrible mess and the elections are not going to solve their problems.

They could make them worse.

The MB and the Military know it and they both may do whatever it takes to save what is left of Egypt.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/05/2011519172611166398.html

The second story gives us yet another hint at just how bad the relationship between the US and Israel has become.

Netanyahu knows Israel’s back is now against the wall perhaps like never before.

The wars in the past, had a common denominator, the backing of the US.

Most of us do not believe the US would stand by and watch the destruction of Israel, but the people of Israel may not feel the same way after this week.

Again, the issue of ‘perception’ comes into play.

What is even more important is how Iran perceived the President’s speech!

His comments about Iran did not go unnoticed, but the true discovery for Iran may be in the perception of a change in US support for Israel.

Iran will not believe the US has abandoned Israel, in fact, most official comments from Iran spoke to the issue of the President still playing to the goals of Israel.

Yet, one can not overlook the theory Iran may have a greater perception of the US simply standing on the sidelines as the Middle East unravels.

Comments that painted a picture of the US taking a ‘ it’s up to the people’ attitude, will be studied by Iran in great detail.

It is very clear to Iran, internally, the US is not going to intervene, at this time, with events in Syria.

Iran knows the talk of sanctions is as it always has been, a Paper Tiger.

For Iran to even contemplate the US will take a ‘ sideline’ stances in the Middle East, could prove to be disastrous.

Enter the question of Saudi.

Has the President’s policy shift lead to a potential confrontation between Iran and the GCC,  a Saudi run concept?

I stated two days ago,  Saudi and the GCC have something in common with Israel and they have seen it coming for several months now.

The US is perceived as pulling away from all of them!

True?

Who knows and who cares!!

Remember; “Perceptions”.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/20/us-obama-mideast-netanyahu-idUSTRE74I7L720110520