Last week, I spoke to the issue of how the Ukrainian
military might be more divided than many realized and how the ousted President
may have insured the Military would not follow new leadership that is simply
based upon protest in Kiev .
Again and again I have reminded everyone just how detailed
the planning process by the Russians may have been and how anticipating having
to split the Ukrainian military to insure it was not combat effective was most
likely a priority of effort.
Continue this concept by considering how reluctant the new
government would be to even hint to the outside world there was dissension
amongst the ranks of the Ukrainian military?
Yet, if the new leadership truly had evidence or a strong
perception of this being true, then the question of forming a "new defense
force" might just be logical.
Short version of this question!
Is the development of the new Ukrainian National Guard an
indication the Ukrainian military may be more divided, thus ineffective, than anticipated?
As much credit as I have given the Russian military planning
process, I'm not sold on the idea they anticipated a formal National Guard
realignment.
In a Chess game where the new government and the West have
been losing almost every move, this National Guard concept may be the first
indication of a offensive victory.
Now, I say that, but you can bet the Russian reaction to the
National Guard announcement will sound something like this; "we do not
recognize a formal alignment of Fascist groups into a military
organization".
So, does this National Guard concept indicate trouble in the
Ukrainian military forces and their questionable loyalty to the new government
in Kiev ?
My opinion is yes; it means exactly that.
As to the tactical capabilities of this new concept, I would
suggest we wait to see who makes up these new units?
If they are bits and pieces of existing units, then I think
we have our answer.
Will this new concept be capable of defending large portions
of Ukrainian land?
It depends on what they are trying to defend against.
On the other hand, if the rumors of Russian forces massing
on the Ukrainian border are true, and I believe they are, then this new
National Guard concept will be nothing more than a prime example of a too
little and too late.
My bet is, we shall see sooner than we think.
