PERSIAN NATIONALISM. IS THIS WHERE IRAN IS HEADING?

First off, hats off to Narges Bajoghli for putting this story together. It’s refreshing to see professional opinions, backed by solid investigative research. Dr. Bajoghi is an Academic and we all know my feelings towards most academics who write about the Middle East. Not this time. Dr. Bajoghli nailed this one and I hope someone is taking what she is saying seriously.  A professionally researched story! That’s a concept the US media has forgotten. 

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/12/iran-new-nationalism-religion-politics-trump-saudi-isis.html

Now, over the course of this blog, I think I have addressed the issue of possible Persian Nationalism more than once. So, when I came across Dr. B’s story, it convinced me my hunch from a few years ago was correct. You can’t get a nation that’s average age is under 30 to follow fat old men who insist on you not listening to music, not dancing, not drinking and not surfing the internet. The problem for Iran has been, that is exactly what the old men of the so called “Revolution” still think. It’s not working and it’s not working at an every increasing rate. The fat old men may not want to believe it, but it appears “others” do!

THE IRGC:

By the way, if you have to ask, “What is the IRGC”, then you need to go read some other blog site. Sorry, but going backwards is not my style. Alright. If the fat old men in Tehran can’t see the handwriting on the wall, even after the events of 2009, then what? Answer? The IRGC. From day one I argued with my prior workmates that Qasem Soleimani is Nationalist, not a devout follower of a religious cult. Are the Shia a “cult”? Well, according to my Sunni friends in the region, they are worse than a cult, so for now, that’s the label I’ll give them. By the way, I would love to hear Soleimani’s opinion of those old men when nobody is around!

The concept of finding a way to keep the population of Iran loyal to the government, whomever is running it, is not an issue unique to the Persians. Every nation does this, but it’s only the smart ones that find a way to make it work. Music videos placed on the internet? Yep, that is thinking out of the box and the IRGC is on to something. Do the old men agree with the tactic? Well, here comes a very…..very interesting question and one that Dr. B may not have had time to contemplate. Are they? Are the old men really running the country? Hassan Rouhani is a puppet, for now, who is loyal to the bidding of Khamenei. Khamenei is what? Well, he is old, sick and completely out of touch. I mean, let’s face it, the old man can’t keep a lid on Ahmadinejad even after threatening him with prison. Why? Why is the guy who believes in magic carpets still permitted to run amuck in Iran?  How much day to day authority does Khamenei and his band of religious nutcases truly have? Who is the Luca Brasi for Khamenei? Yep. Soleimani. What’s the history of betrayal by the closest confidants in the Mafia? Who’s making the drive to nationalize the youth of Iran? Who is making music videos based on Persian history and not even mentioning the Islamic movement?

Survival:

To the leadership of the IRGC, and trust me, this is Soleimani, what is more important? The survival of the nation of Iran or the future of a concept of government and religion that suppresses the human spirit? What better tool to help hold a nation together than the vision of past glory? A glory that was not based on crushing individual freedoms, although the Greeks may disagree.

Iran is and has been in real trouble demographically. Yes, the average age issue will level out over time as long as they don’t enter into yet another protracted war. The Arab population of Iran, Persian Iran, is growing and if anyone thinks the Arabs don’t remember the Persians, then they need to go focus on some other part of the world. Iran’s future is in doubt, at least that is what the IRGC believes and the number one mission of the IRGC is to secure the future of Iran and if that means moving away from the so called “revolution” then that is exactly what they will do.

Out of the woods:

Is that it? Are we seeing the light at the end of the tunnel on the issue of Iran? I mean, if the IRGC is successful in changing the future of Iran’s youth, doesn’t that mean this whole, Shia / Persian / Sunni  Arab mess might go away? Might Iran become the old Iran again; the Iran of a Secular government?  Remember this old adage. “Be careful what you ask for”! When was the last time a nation went wacky Nationalistic and stayed peaceful? Good old Soleimani. I’ve said it before and I will say it again. Perhaps he has visions of becoming the next God Father!

NORTH KOREA AND CHINESE TIPS ON NUCLEAR WAR

With all the hysteria taking place today over the pending US announcement on the Israeli capital, it’s now wonder a story, like the one I am going to address, is overlooked. By the way, as I stated two days ago, the future King of Saudi could care less about the US decision. Good read his reaction, statements, on line and you will see. It’s about Iran……It’s all about Iran…..everyday….every issue.

Okay. So a state-run newspaper in northeastern China published an article called, “common sense” and this common sense topic is all about how to prepare and respond to the impacts of a nuclear war. Hello? Was that a news story not worthy of coverage in the West? Well, not if you are a low grade, tabloid level political hack machine like most networks in the US. So why did DEBKA pick up on this story? Why did they feel it was at least worthy of placing on their minor events scrolling along the side of their daily page website? I will tell you why. Because the Israelis understand the threat and signs of war. This was not some low level reporters trying to catch the eye of his editor. This was a state run, state controlled newspaper, like all newspapers in China.  Every story published is for a reason. Every word placed in that story is reviewed to insure it meets the needs of the Chinese government. If we understand that, then we have to ask the question, why?

Trends:

Several months ago, the Western media was alert enough to pick up on the movement of Chinese units moving into the area near the North Korean border. Speculation was a hot topic for a few days and then, as always, the news switch to the next big event. Flash forward to December 6^th and the release of this common sense article. Is it just a precautionary measure provided by the cradle to grave government of China? Are the Chinese that worried about such an event in North Korea that they felt compelled to publish guidance? Just how good is the Chinese intelligence when it comes to knowing what is going on inside North Korea? I will tell you this, it’s far better than anything the West has going. Could the Chinese believe a nuclear event is a very real possibility? As a matter of fact, they have even said so in the open press.

So a message, guidance, was provided to the Chinese people who live near the North Korean border. Notice the guidance was not given to the nation as a whole. Does that mean China understands that no matter what takes place in North Korea, it will not lead to a wider conflict or It will not lead to a nuclear war between the US and China? This is precisely the type of analytical work the intelligence agencies work on. Did they see this small bit of news coming out of the region? You bet they did. Is it just another slice of data that helps them predict the future actions in the region? Absolutely.

Yes, on a day when all the talk will be about the capital of Israel, and that is what Jerusalem is to anyone who lives in the world of reality, it will be easy to overlook this small little story from a Chinese Newspaper near the North Korean border. But sometimes, it’s the small things that should be noticed!  

SALEH SAW THE LIGHT……BUT IT TURNED OUT TO BE A “FLASH”.

Well, I’ve been off for the past few weeks catching up on other writing “issues”, but I’m back now.

The topic of the day? Mr. Saleh. It seems Mr. Saleh had yet another change of heart a few days ago. A change of heart as to who should continue to line his pockets! Now, this guy has been out to accomplish one thing from the day he stepped into the spotlight. Saleh for Saleh’s sake. That’s it. It’s as simple as that! Flip flop should have been his nickname, but it seems this time, he flipped right on top of a bomb. Not his fist time by the way! Why did Saleh change his mind? Look to the future King of Saudi for your answer. Did the Iranian backed forces in Yemen blow him up? Yep. Could the Saudi’s have anticipated that event taking place? Yep. What will it change? Nothing. He had called for his followers to “rise up” against the Iranian backed forces, but that speech was nothing more than a way to get paid. How many of his followers jumped ship to fight the forces they had been supported by? You can probably count them on one had. Has his death prolonged the fighting in Yemen? Most likely. His supporters won’t be happy with his manner of death along with his body being displayed.

Speaking of Yemen:

If we step back from the events of Saleh’s death to review what is taking place in the region, we might see a few far more interesting trends. Has Iran become embolden with their advances? Yes. Has the future King of Saudi become more determined to stop these advancements? Yes.  Does this lead to tensions in the region becoming worse? Yes. Is anyone surprised by any of this? No! So, what has changed? What has taken place that could lead anyone to believe things may get better or things may get worse? Here is a hint. What “relationship” seems to be, “coming out of the closet”? If you guessed Saudi and Israel, you are only partially correct. You need to add Egypt into your answer. You need to see the closing of ranks between the Russians and the Turks. You need to see how difficult the task has become for the Russians to hold hands with the Turks and the Iranians at the same time. The short and simple answer is, the sides in the Middle East are continuing to attempt to solidify and I want to stress the word, attempt. Does any partner on either side of the partnerships truly trust any of the others? Of course not. The question becomes, what do you look for? What is the next big event that might push the region to the next level?

The US Embassy in Israel:

The topic is back on the table. Why now? Well, for one thing it’s time for the US to update the legal wavier on the issue. The Donald doesn’t want to do it, but the pressure to do so is high. On top of that rather delicate issue is the rumor The Donald is going to announce the US’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel! Contentious issues? Oh ya. Will it pull apart the pro-Western camp? Nope. The target is Iran / the Persians / and all other issue can be addressed at some point down the road. Period. The future King of Saudi is not going to jeopardize his unofficial, undeclared, collation for the sake of the Palestinians, at least not right now. Much large games are underway. Lebanon. Iraq. Syria and Yemen. Those are the primary points of effort, not the Palestinians.

The timing is right. If the US wants to push the issue of Embassies and Capitals, now is the time to do so. The question becomes why? Why make waves with those issues now? The answer takes us right back to the primary topic. Iran! Israel is being told to sit on their hands while the Iranians and Hezbollah creap closer and closer to the “redline”. “Steady Boys…. Steady….Wait to you see the white of their eyes”! That seems to be the message. The undeclared coalition need a little more time before things may get very interesting. They may also allow the undeclared partner to start the event………….Israel!  But. In the meantime, perhaps the US feels it’s time to toss the Israelis a bone. Perhaps it takes a  little open support to keep the whole game plan moving forward.

Look. Let’s face it. The region is a complete mess and is only going to get worse before it has a chance of getting better. Is there a war in the future? Most likely. Is it in the near future? That is the scary question and the answer is even more frightening. As for Salah. It appears the flip-flop Leader saw the light. Unfortunately for him, that light was the flash of a rather large bomb! 

SAUDI ARABIA’S “PURGE” AND HARIRI….. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

I read one story line this weekend that stated, “The week that shook the Middle East”! Well, that may be a far more profound statement then even the author realized. I read through several “Deep Dives” on what was taking place and most of them seemed to be nothing more than the typical “look how smart I am” diatribes banged out on a keyboard just in time to make a few dollars. So, let’s go. Let’s get real…..real simple on this topic and see if we can come up with a prediction for the region.

Prince Salman:

Was the Saudi event a purge?

Yes!

Was it based on the corruption of those taken into custody?

Yes, but then again, if that was the only criteria for being picked up this weekend, the numbers would have been much………MUCH……….higher!

Was the future King moving on those who are opposed to him?

Yes! Not only opposed to him, but willing to support action against him.

Is he done?

Nope!

Do the ones he may come after yet know they are on the “list”?

Yep!

Are they still in Saudi?

I bet not.

Will it work and will this purge solidify the future King’s position?

 Maybe, maybe not, but the odds just went way up!

Will this purge be seen as a positive event to the people of Saudi?

It will to the youth, and Saudi is a very young country. That is the base Salman is playing to.

 Is the West / US / happy with what happened?

Oh…Hell no!

Is the White House okay with what happened?

Most likely. Those that were rounded up had close ties to “old” relationships. New, far more dynamic events have been taking place for the past year and most of them are driven from Moscow.

Prime Minister Hariri:

Did Hezbollah try to kill Hariri last week?

It looks that way? Remember, they blew up his Father in 2005.

Did Hezbollah take this action on their own?

Hezbollah doesn’t take any action on their own. Tehran calls every shot the Hezbollah takes, no kidding….every shot!

 Why? Why kill Hariri?

Easy. They don’t like him and they don’t trust him.

Why?

 Well there is this thing called the Sunni / Shia divide and he is on the wrong side of the divide.

 Why now, why try to kill him now and wouldn’t that look way too obvious?

 Obvious? Yes….it would be obvious, but when has obvious ever been a stumbling block for Iran or Hezbollah?

 So they would kill him just because he is the wrong side of the faith and they don’t like him?

That’s part of it, but there is also the issue of everything seems to be going Iran’s way right now. Confidence often leads to carelessness and the Persians are becoming very….very careless. Solidifying their hold on Iraq, Syria and Lebanon is their goal; with or without the Russian’s help!

How do the Russians fit into all of this?

The Tsar was in Iran last week. To the Iranians, that like having the Godfather say he is coming to “Visit” you! Visit’s that usually lead to a kiss on the lips and then you sleep with the fishes! He showed up had them sign a deal to basically work the majority of their oil and gas deals through his companies and then he left.

Does he care about the future of Syria….Lebanon….Iraq?

 Only if they are trying to sell oil or gas or if fits his goal of making the West trade for events in Eastern Europe.

Does that lead the Iranians to believe they are free to do what they want with those three nations?

In a nutshell…yes!

The “Link between the Two Events:

So, who is against the Persian takeover of Iraq, Lebanon and Syria?

You guessed it, the future King of Saudi Arabia.

What do the ambitions of Iran have to do with the “purge” in Saudi last weekend?

Saudi, the leadership of the Sunnis. Iran, the leadership of the Shia!  Think about it. In addition, in order to prepare for your next phase of your Master Plan, you must solidify your hold on power. That thought process holds true for both sides.

Is Saudi going to openly confront Iran?

It’s becoming entirely possible.  

Will the West and the Russians allow that to happen?

It’s even more possible nether the US or the Russians can truly prevent it. Lots of very sophisticated weapons in the hands of both groups and the animosity continues to grow. Launch authority does not reside in DC or Moscow. Remember, there was the issue of a ballistic missile being fired towards the Saudi Capital this weekend. How do you think that went over with Prince Salman?

Okay, this story could be told in a far more academic way. It will be explained by those that love to make other nation’s State Departments say, “wow”, that was very well written. He or she is obviously an “expert” on the region. Let them. The story is not an issue of sophistication. It’s a story of danger……real danger! 

A PHONE CALL BETWEEN PUTIN AND NETANYAHU:

The Russian Defense Minister goes to Israel? Unusual? Given the events in Syria and Iraq right now,? yes. A conversation takes place and afterwards, shortly afterwards, and that’s the key here, Netanyahu places a phone call to the Tsar? What did the Israelis hear that made their Boss call Shoigu’s Boss and do so so quickly? What point did Netanyahu wish to get clarification on, or what statements did he want to make the Tsar understood?

There will “never” be Iranian military facilities in Syria:

 Once again, Israel made this statement perfectly clear and they did so within the past week. Anyone who questions this stance is fooling themselves. So, is that it? Is the Tsar fooling himself? Has he made some commitment to allowing the Persians an overt, permanent stance in Syria? Even if he hasn’t, has he turned a blind eye to such an event becoming reality? If his answer is something along the lines of,“Russia doesn’t make decision for the government of Syria”…..or….  “ Although we do not think Iranian basing in Syria is a positive event for the region, we are not the controllers of Assad”! You get the point. Can the Tsar get away with playing stupid? Unfortunately, the answer is yes! If this is the issue. If the Russian Defense Minister, who is always nothing more than a messenger, came to Israel to inform them of some level of Iranian permanent plan for Syria, then playing stupid is a disastrous decision.

Putin’s Miscalculation:

From day one, the design of the Tsar’s plan for the Middle East has been twofold. One, manipulate  the fuel industry in such a way that the impact to Russia’s economic engine, fuel, is not adversely impacted. Two, manipulate the events in the region as a bargaining chip for his goals in Eastern Europe. If Russia is threatened by NATO expansion in Eastern Europe, then Russia will destabilize other regions, vital to the West. All of this has one fatal flaw and it’s a flaw we have to wonder if the Tsar understands the significance. To Putin, the Middle East is an economic threat and a pawn all at the same time. Manipulating what takes place there is a complex game he has proven to be an expert in. But, and it’s a very dangerous but; does he understand the gravity of the “game” when it comes to Israel? Does he comprehend the depth of emotions behind the Sunni / Shia struggle? He hears from all of them, but does he truly understand just how dangerous the game really is becoming? Has he miscalculated? Here is an even more ominous question? Does he care? The Russian Defense Minister come to Israel with a message. A message that is part of a grand scheme to manipulate the region. That message is so unacceptable to Israel that a phone call is place almost immediately to Moscow. What Shoigu did was set something in motion. Was it the action his Boss anticipated? If so, then the conversation was anticipated. Iran is an issue of National Survival to Israel. If you don’t believe the Russians understand that, then asked yourself a question. Why do the most advanced Air Defense networks in the region, ones controlled by the Russians, allow the IDF to continue to strike targets in Syria?  Something happened in that meeting and something was said on that phone call to Moscow? I bet Tehran would love to know! 

THE BATTLE FOR KIRKUK. ANOTHER CHAPTER FROM DUNE! 

The long awaited battle for Kirkuk is underway. Anyone who halfway pays attention to the region has always understood what was going to happen. Kurdistan, or at least the attempt at Kurdistan. The dream of the Kurds. Kurds who just might be able to have some level of unity, unity long enough to attempt to carve out their dream. A dream the Turks, Iranians and Assad will do anything to prevent. 

 Fact check. What are the Kurds? Sunni. What are the forces now attacking Kirkuk? Yep. Shia.          Shia with Iranian units in support. Another fact check. What side are the Russians on? If you said    both, you can continue. What side is the US on, if you said both, you may continue to continue!     Wait…..what? The US is on the side of the Shia / Iranians? Well, not exactly, but they are                supporting the Iraqi government and only the true idiots in DC don’t understand Iran calls the     ball in Iraq. So, yes, you get credit if you said “both”.

Just how bad can this get?

               A few days ago, yet another ground movement was conducted by the Turks into Syria. Does anyone think this had anything to do with anything other than the Kurds? If so, stop. Go back to what you were doing. You just failed the course. Okay, back to the topic. So, are the Turks working with the Iranians? Well, not exactly. The common denominator is the quest to not see a Kurdistan continue to develop. How that takes place is not an issue derived from any form of “joint” operation, especially between Shia and Sunni units. Yes…. I know… there were and in some case are “Joint” Sunni / Shia operations in Iraq. But, before you believe some foolish concept such as a common goal, take a deeper look at the amount of money spent on this “joint” project. Yes, they are paid to get along and yes, they will both continue to betray each other when the time comes.

               How bad can the battle of Kirkuk get? Well, if you know anything about the Kurds, you know the Iraqi / Iranian forces better have their share of body bags ready to go. Yes, the Iraqi / Iranian / Hezbollah forces will make “gains” in the first actions inside of Kirkuk. The Kurds will give up areas they don’t intend on defending and allow the Iraqi units to spread out in an urban environment. Then the fighting will come and if you think the ISIS units held out for an extended period of time, pay attention to how the Kurds respond. This is a fighting force that has had years to think about how to defend Kirkuk. So, think of Kirkuk as Stalingrad and the Iraqi’s are the Germans. Think in terms of being over extended and you may get a glimpse of the days and weeks ahead for Kirkuk.

Where are the Russians?

               Russia. The supporter of Assad. Russia. The supporter of Iran. Are we going to see Russian air support for the battle of Kirkuk? No! Was a push on Kirkuk even in the playbook for the Russians? Nope! Do the Russians support the Kurds? Go back to the top of this post! So, what is going on here? How is the battle for Kirkuk going to play out in Moscow? Has the Tsar placed a call to Tehran yet? Does Tehran care if the Tsar calls? Let’s go back to a discussion I’ve had on several occasions. What is the relationship between the Russians and Iran? Does the Tsar get Birthday cards from Tehran? I bet not. Do the Russians see the Persians as tool in the great quest of Mother Russia? Yes. Do the Persians see themselves as a Puppet on a string from Moscow? No. Do they think the rest of the world sees them that way? Yes. Does that upset them? What do you think? Do the Persians feel as if the Russians pushed them to the sidelines on the future of Syria? Yes. Does that upset them? Oh you bet! So does Tehran “trust” Moscow? Trust? What a strange word when it comes to international diplomacy. Finally, are the Iranians going to allow the future of Iraq to be decided by anyone but Iran? No! So, where do the Russians come into play on the issue of the Kurds and Kirkuk? Have you ever read the book Dune? “The Spice must flow”! Who is in charge of the “Spice” is irrelevant. In Moscow, one truism is undeniable. If properly played, there is money to be made in a conflict and if you are really good, you make money from both sides!

The US? Where does it stand?

               As of this morning, the same old story hold true on the so called news networks. What did Trump say or do in the past 24hrs that everyone can argue about? Yes, the US is so lost in it’s own politics, that it can’t see the world that is revolving around it. Even when The Donald does attempt to address something about the rest of the world, the first reaction is only based upon what he said and not what the event itself actually is. Lost at Sea. That is where the US is. As a matter of fact, the US Foreign Policy Ship has been lost at sea so long, it has to be about out of gas! Funny thing about ships that are presumed “lost”. The people that were expecting the cargo, simply accept the fact it’s not showing up! It so bad now, I even saw an article last week on CNN that was encouraging Iran to “ Call the US’s Bluff on the nuclear development “deal”. Oh, by the way. Do you know why that disaster is called a “deal”? Well, I will tell you. Such an agreement, by US Constitutional law is supposed to be worked as a “Treaty” not a “Deal”! Obama knew he couldn’t get what he caved in on through Congress so he called it a “Deal” and thus, avoided Congress. Ego’s….politics is all about egos! Back on track here! The US “supports” the Kurds right? Well, there is another one of those funny words. “Supports”. Back in the 90s we “supported” the Kurds and that lead them to be gassed! Is the US going to prevent Kirkuk from becoming a battle zone? No. Has the US once again tried to work a deal with Moscow on the issue of Kirkuk? You can bet both sides have talked about what was coming. Did the US ask the Russians if the Iranians were part of the discussion? Nope! Did the US care? Nope. Does the future of the Kurds rest in the hands of the US? No. Who does hold the future for the Kurds? Are the truly on their own? The “Spice”….be thinking in terms of the “Spice”!

Did the Iranians force this Battle?

Short answer. Yes! What is the only thing the Iranians could promise the Tsar that might keep him from striking yet another deal with the US?  Yep. It must flow!  But wait a minute! What about the Ottomans? Has anyone worked this deal with the Turks? Who actually controls the lines from Kirkuk, that is until the location of the lines falls into the hands of someone new? So, what’s in it for them? Does the fall of Kirkuk prevent the future of Kurdistan? For the most part, yes! Is that enough to let the events in Kirkuk unfold without Turk influence? Yep.

               Yes the whole region remains a mess. Yes, the events in Kirkuk are going to have a resounding impacts on the Iraqi government, the Iranian government and the Turks. Yes, the Kurds are once again pawns in the larger game of world powers. Yes, the Russians will continue to make decisions not based on the best interest of Iran or Turkey. Let me end by saying this. The only way a fighting force like Peshmerga gives up Kirkuk is if something else much larger is going on. Iraqi flags driving up and down the roads of Kirkuk is a dangerous sign. Shia vs Sunni. If anyone has taken this reality out of the context for this event, they are foolish. Does the Guild understand the depth of this conflict? 

TRUMP SAYS “NO” TO IRANIAN NUCLEAR “DEAL”! NOW WHAT?

As predicted, The Donald did not certify the Iranian nuclear arms pact and the “experts” have been rushing to the news outlets to sell their opinions as fast as they can. So, the questions has been and now is, “so, what now”? First off CNN and MSNBC will have yet another nightly showing of the Trumpophobic  show! While that is taking place, the US Democratic will be rushing down the hallways of Congress to see who can get on TV first as they give their profound statements on what Trump’s actions mean to the nation. All of this is not only predictable and laughable, it’s also worthless to watch. Let’s take an intelligent look at what the Donald’s actions mean, but not the US, but to “others”.

Does it really matter?

Let me make something perfectly clear to anyone out there that doesn’t understand the dynamics of the Middle East. Iran will never…….never….ever… be allowed to possess nuclear weapons! And I say never ever? If I didn’t, I’ll say it again! NEVER EVER! Doesn’t matter what the US signs. It doesn’t matter what the Russians promise. It doesn’t matter how many foaming at the mouth speeches the reading leadership might give. It doesn’t matter how much the North Koreans or any other nations scientist attempt to help the Iranians. It’s never going to happen! The reigning people or those that hate the nation of Israel can listen to all the speeches they want to. They can have old men stand at podiums and talk about the destruction of the nation of Israel. It won’t matter! The nation of Israel will never allow the Iranians to possess nuclear weapons! Now that we understand that, let’s move on to a topic that’s probably far more important given today’s decision by the United States leadership. The Iranians delusional enough to state they will now move their program for?

Iran’s Decision:

All the talk today, after president trumps decision, seem to center around the issue that the United States Congress must now decide the fate of the Iranian nuclear weapons agreement. As I stated above, that’s a completely false assumption. There is a far more important decision to be made and it’s not one that will take place in the United States. How Iranians react? Who will try and influence their reaction? How will those that support the Iranians respond to today decision? These are far more important questions then making comments and speculations about the U.S. Congress. Logically the first decision that must be made, must be made by the Iranians. Howell words given from the bully pulpit are meaningless. After all the emotional speeches are finished, what will the Iranians do? It seems they have 60 days to figure that out. Sometime inside that 60 day window, you will see a dire warning from the Israelis addressing the Iranians and the options they must contemplate. The Iranians know better than anyone else that the Israelis do not pay attention to words as much as they do physical actions.

This is not New “News”:

The Iranians, the Russians and just about everyone else has been anticipating today’s decision. Courses of action, based upon the decisions of United States, have been under development by every single nation that could be impacted by this agreement. Conversations between nations, especially with the United States, have been going on for weeks. The EU’s sympathetic approach towards the Iranians has most likely follow up on deaf ears at the White House. As for Moscow, the Czar has been willing to trade away the Persians from day one. Europe, more specifically, Eastern Europe, that is the Brass Ring Russians seek. Let The Donald place NATO expansion on the table and you can watch the Iranian nuclear program go away overnight. So you see, the anticipation of the US’s decision today has been in play long before the announcement the media is going crazy over right now.

Who holds the “High ground”:

Think of this entire discussion over Iranian nuclear weapons development from a unique but typical stance. Who holds the high ground? Who really negotiates this dangerous topic from  an overwhelming advantage point? Answer? The United States! Who understands this as this negotiation period Now moves forward? Yep! The Donald! Yes, I know, all the liberal media is abuzz with yet another rumor that the commander-in-chief of the United States top military advisers are against killing the Iranian weapons program deal! To that I simply answer, BS! What the United States military brass has most likely informed their commander-in-chief is the fact that the Israelis have a trigger point for the Iranian nuclear weapons program.” Mr. President. If the Iranians decide to move forward with their program they are X amount of days away from operation weapon. The Israelis will take action against that program no later than X amount of days prior to that anticipated operational weapons date”. That Is probably as close as you can get to the true concerns of the United States military senior leadership if you’re looking for an issue with this entire Iranian nuclear weapons deal. If they were asked, and they probably were, what is the recommendation, their answers would be based upon the scenarios that they believe might happen. There is one thing that every senior military commander in United States understands. The Israelis will never allow the Iranians to have functional nuclear weapons program. So today, the Donald set into motion a process most had already anticipated. The announcement was only the next move in this chess game. Anticipated reactions by the Iranians and their supporters were factored in before this final decision was made. Having said that, you never really know your opponents next move until they actually make it. Let me end this post by reiterating my initial statement. Iran will never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. Durand needs to understand the physics of this event. 1650c …………If you live in Iran…………look it up!!! Your leaders may have it in your future.  

TURKEY AND THE WEST. IS IT TIME TO REALIZE WHAT IS TAKING PLACE?

So the Sultan will not “recognize” the US Ambassador as the official representative of the US in Turkey? Well, I’ve said this before and I will say it again and again…………..Erdogan is a mentally Ill! Yes…He’s a nutcase…thus the reason I call him Egodan! In the course of a week, the Turks have taken several deliberate steps to thumb their nose at the US. Why you may ask? If you have to ask that question, then you’ve not been following this nutcase for over thirteen years now. If Egodan is anything, he’s a dreamer. A man who has a fantasy of the new Ottoman Empire and of course he’s the Sultan of this imaginary world. But why now? Why all the uptick in this strained relationship?

The Puppet Master:

Who is the Puppet Master? If you have followed my posting for the past few years, you know exactly who I’m referring to……. You know...... The Tsar.  Could the phone ring next to Egodan’s bed and the Tsar simply give him his marching orders for that that day? No! Can the Tsar manipulate multiple issues with key inputs at just the right time to make the Puppet in Ottoman Land dance the Pirouette? As a matter of fact, he does it with more than just Egodan! He’s even has The Donald Jumping around at predictable moments in the movement. So, what was the issue this week that lead to the Sultan to once again take a slap at the US? Was it the meeting of the Saudi’s in Moscow? Was it the fact the Kurds are still receiving “support” from the West? Did Egodan just have some bad Turkish coffee this week?

Shifts in Power:  

How did the Sultan interpret the Saudi meeting in Moscow last week? Everyone knows the Saudis are a ripe plume the Tsar is more than willing to pluck away from the West. Oil, location and the ability to control the flow of funds into the Sunni groups…….groups that worry the Tsar. Could it be the Sultan was trying to show the Tsar the Turk’s increasing distancing from the West? Was the Sultan jealous of the Saudi visit? Sound crazy, well, crazy is the box that sits between Egodan’s ears! Never expect rational actions out of irrational people. The Saudi meeting in Moscow has all the “Experts” talking about the continuing “Power Shift” in the Middle East and to some extent they are correct. As they always have, times are changing! Old alliances are just that, “old”! New alliances are always shaky and full of doubt. But, here is what we all need to remember as it’s a much greater issue that Egodan making yet another mystifying statement. In the history of global power, powers based on alliances, the shifting of such alliances is almost always the real indication of dangerous times ahead. What we see taking place with Turkey has been slowly going on for over ten years now. That said, new shifts are now taking place and more irrational leaders are showing up on the playing field. All of that can only lead to one conclusion, we are sailing deeper in to very stormy waters! 

TRUMP’S, CALM BEFORE THE STORM” STATEMENT?

The word began to react today, those that were paying attention, to the words of The Donald. “The Calm before the storm”? To the guy who is still upset with the actions of the spoiled Jocks in the NFL, that statement probably didn’t even register. To a guy like the Tsar, his classic grin may have appeared on his face. To the liberal left, it was just another sign the White House is occupied by a crazy man. Finally, to the military leadership in the room, one of whom I know, it was a statement that made their phones blow up as soon as the word got out. Oh ya, to me? Well, to me it means one thing. The Donald is driving certain world leaders crazy and I’m not sure that is a bad thing.

“Don’t Test me”:

Whose more “ Macho” the Tsar or The Donald? Who feels like the other guy is getting all the macho, style points? Who is watching a Master Statesmen out maneuver him in the world of international affairs? Who has the leadership of the Middle East knocking on his door asking for a new found friendship? One last one. Who is not used to, nor comfortable with, someone else being the better businessman, on all fronts?

The Donald doesn’t like to lose. He doesn’t like, “Bad Deals”. That is not how he made his fortune and fame. Every day he wakes up only to hear of some new slick maneuver by the Tsar. To a guy like The Donald, that gets old real……real…..fast. In the middle of all of this, two pest continue to distract The Donald. Two third level nations continue to eat up his time and continue to have the liberal media hounding him. Yep. North Korea and Iran. It’s bad enough he can’t shake the ludicrous and completely unfounded story of some type of “deal” with the guy he can’t seem to keep up with, but he has these two issues nipping at his heels. There’s one way to show the guy that you’re envious of that you’re just as good as he is, and that is to make bold and rash statements that catch everyone’s attention. In a way it could very well be The Donald’s statement of, “Calm before the storm”, as a way of saying, “see there. I’m a hard ass just as much as you are”! I know all this seems far-fetched, but were talking about a person that is pretty far-fetched.

The Reaction:

I made the statement earlier about a grin coming across the face of the Czar.I did so understanding that he would’ve expected just such a reaction from the US president, his so-called friend and comrade. Pupils interaction future King of Saudi Arabia this week, yes the current King went along for the ride, was yet another message to the west more specifically, the United States. The future of the Middle East continues to be shaped by the decisions made in Moscow and there seems to be little the West can do about it. That has to be frustrating to more than just the US president. As an example, one has to wonder what the conversations were inside the Iranian capital when Saudi showed up in Moscow. Yes the Iranians knew the Saudis are going to see the Czar and yes the radians probably fully have anticipated the future King is building an alliance with the Russians. What does that hold for the Iranians? What deals will the Tsar cut the Saudi king and will Iran have any influence on any of the agreements?

If The Donald wanted to stir discontent between the Russians and the Iranians, at a moment in time when the Persians true enemy was in a meeting with their puppet master, then why not leak the information that the Iranian nuclear accord was not going to be approved? Is the timing of these two events, the meeting in Moscow and the statement by the US president a coincidence? My opinion? I don’t believe in coincidences when it comes to international affairs. The Donald in a chess match with a world champion player. Worse yet, this world champion player is reportedly the mentor of his current opponent. The Czar continues to make the game even more complicated as The Donald struggles to keep up. This was a rash and confusing statement US president has made. The huge question becomes, was it truly a warning? The Donald is more than capable of playing brinksmanship, but the question becomes is he truly thinking his way through the process? I would’ve loved to herd the conversations amongst the US military leaders after that meeting with their commander-in-chief was over.

SAUDI ARABIA AND WOMEN DRIVING CARS? WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Okay. I like to read Pepe’s stuff and this article is a fairly hard statement about what may be taking place in Saudi. The one thing I did get lost on was…………..where did the story go about Women driving cars? When I first saw the announcement,  I had a mental picture of the roundabouts in Saudi! Look, it’s bad enough to navigate a simple roadway there, but when you get the Mad Max Roundabouts and you know that almost every drive in that swarming Bee’s Hive is a Saudi male, it’s hard to get up the courage to drive forward into the abyss. Now……………….to that…………add Saudi Women drivers……..drivers who have never driven…………….drivers who are most likely visually impaired for religious reasons!!!! My prediction is, if someone opened a website that was just Roundabout cameras 24/7, you would get a million hits a day. If you think watching Russian dash-cam clips on YouTube is fun………….you just wait! Who can drive? When can they drive? That may be the Devil in the Details that saves the streets of Saudi from becoming, if you can believe it, far worse than they already are.

Alright. Enough about Saudi’s predicament with Driving Ms. Daisy. Let me go back and take a look at Pepe’s real issue in this story; The House divided in Saudi…… The concept of the Kingdom having a violent change. Is that really in the wings? Is the Saudi Kingdom in that much trouble?

I’ve addressed the topic before of the so called “Young Prince” / MBS. Is he the power hungry Roya some make him out to be? How many of the Royals are not power hungry? Is he the reason the CIA allegedly “upset”? By the way, you would be amazed at how well the CIA plays every side of every angle. Is MBS driving the Saudi Kingdom into a crisis? Here is one for ya. How about the idea the young Prince is trying desperately to insure Saudi’s survival?

Surrounded by “inexperienced Thirty Year olds”, that’s Pepe’s view. My view…………I hope so, or at least I hope he has a mixture of new and old next to him. If the ratio is out of balance, then it will be business as usual in Saudi.

Family:

Is there a Family element to the potential troubles in Saudi? Yes. Is that new? No! Is it more prevalent this time around? Yes. Does that mean a “bloodbath” is going to take place? No. Here is my answer to the question of resistance to the future King. The current King’s wishes are the rule of the land. That is how the nation has been run and that is how it’s run now. Now, the argument is, MBS manipulated a mentally failing King to jump to next in line. Again. Anything new here? No. Here comes the fun part to watch in all of this. Fun and dangerous. Dangerous because desperate nations can do desperate things.

Sides:

Sides! Who is on whose side? According to Pepe and others, the CIA sides with the Nayef, the guy that got tossed out by MBS! So, where does that leave the Russians? Does anyone think for a minute the Tsar is not a stake holder in this game of Thrones? How important is Saudi to Russia? Very. Is it all about the oil? Not entirely. The Middle East is a Chessboard and the Tsar loves to play the game at that level. What can be done to aggravate the West? What makes the West squirm? Did the Russians have their fingers in the move by MBS? How could they not have? Even if they didn’t, would the CIA think they didn’t? Hey, by the way, does the current team at the CIA get along with The Donald? Now, there is an argument for another day. Who does the Dirty Work for the “Deep State”? Is the Deep State issue in the US just like the issue of “Power” in Saudi right now? There’s another great conversation I won’t have given I don’t want my blog page to come up missing!

How bad is it?

Is the government of Saudi Arabia in real trouble? Is someone going to try to inflame the radical religious elements in Saudi? Is the issue of softening the social status in Saudi going to be the stick used against the future King? Can someone turn Saudi into Syria? If so, who would get the blame and what would the Future King do about it? Be thinking Iran here and not Russia. Putting pressure on young Salman will not go over well. Thinking the Iranians and the CIA are behind that pressure will not go over well.  Who does he turn to? Who makes the threat far more complicated? Let see how the meeting between the current King and the Tsar goes. That will give us a hint…. A hint of something I already believe.  Ah yes... The Saudi version of Game of Thrones! 

http://www.atimes.com/article/wheels-deals-trouble-brewing-house-saud/

THE DEATH OF LT. GENERAL ASAPOV. HOW AND WHAT COULD IT MEAN?

A few days ago a Russian three-star general was killed in Syria. His role was that of, “an advisor”! Now, I spent a large part of my career, “advising”, but I can’t remember a three-star general, in the field, as an advisor. Yes, Russians do do things differently and the idea of a three-star general being in the forward danger zone of a conflict is not new to the Russians. I’m with the story is, no one really believes that General Asapov was, “an advisor”! General Asapov was most likely what most three-star generals are, a commander of troops, Russian Troops! So, why was this matter? The story itself didn’t even show up in the Western media.

The notification:

In Moscow, the notification had been made to Putin along with the details of how the event took place. How does a three-star general get killed in action by indirect fire? How was it that the, “enemy” could target a location effectively that has a Russian three-star general operating? Short version, “how did they find him”? These are probably just a few of the questions Russian president asked of his military staff. Contrary to Western media coverage, loss of a Russian three-star general is a big deal! It’s an event the Russian president will not simply turned his back to.

Definitions of the word “Enemy”:

Daesh? What is the Russian definition of a member of Daesh? In case you have forgotten, it’s anyone who’s fighting the Syrian government. The Russians know full well that their definition encompasses any and all factions supported by the West, namely the United States. Though, think about it for a minute. When someone walked in the room and advised present Putin he had lost a three-star general, what were his thoughts? The countless discussions and unofficial agreements between the US and the Russians, on the topic of Syria, are so numerous and so convoluted, it is difficult to believe that any hard fast understanding of roles and responsibilities could prevent what took place. The intelligence required to locate and target the Russian three-star general would be a difficult task. Yes, it is happened time and time again with Iranian senior military leaders, but I would be willing to bet the Russians were suspect of the intelligence provided to make those attacks happen as well. If you really want to cut to the chase, the Russian president may be sitting in Moscow wondering how it is the Americans would be so bold as to target a Russian three-star general in the field? If that hypothesis sounds ridiculous to you, that I would submit that your knowledge of Putin’s mindset is not as good as you might think it is. The fact of the matter is, the Russians lost a three-star general in Syria! How they lost him and who was responsible for questions they would to get the facts for what they will make assumptions! Communications between the US and the Russians must be taking this is not his name general place as I write this. At least I hope so! 

KURDISH BID OF “INDEPENDENCE” AND THE SUM OF ALL FEARS!

From day one of the Arab Spring, many feared one outcome. Kurdistan! I addressed this over six years ago and I’ve never come off center on the topic. The Kurds! No group has manipulated more than the Kurds. Loyal to the West before and during Desert Shield and Storm. Loyalty that lead to them being gassed. When ISIS was on the march in Iraq, what one group stood in their way? Who held the line? Yep, the Kurds! Have the Kurdish groups placed bombs in New York? Have they hijacked aircraft? Have they made gruesome videos of Westerners having their heads sawed off? If you know the Kurds, then you know the answer to all of these questions.

PERSIANS AND OTTOMANS:

The destabilization of Iraq and Syria meant only one thing to the Iranians and the Turks. It’s one of the very few issues the Ottomans and the Persians have in common. The fear of the Kurds! The fear of a new nation called, Kurdistan! Both the Turks and Iranians own land the Kurds lay claim to and you can toss in Syria and Iraq while you are at it. The loss of land is valid reason to go to war and war is exactly what the Iranians and the Turks are willing to risk to prevent Kurdistan. Not only are the Ottomans and the Persians willing to risk war, the rest of the world believes their threats. Here is where it gets real complicated. Nether the Turks or the Iranians are willing to trust each other over the issue of the Kurds. They both want the nightmare of Kurdistan to go away and they are both willing to go to extreme measures to insure it never takes place, but how do they do that without risking the “other side” coming out on top? You see………………the Turks and the Iranians don’t like each other. The history of the Ottomans and the Persians is not a one of cooperation! Neither side wants the Kurds to form a nation state, but neither side is willing to let the other side gain a possible advantage in the region. So, it comes down to this. How do the Ottomans and the Persians deal with the issue of the Kurds with the real end- state being not letting the other guy be seen as the hero? No joint victory here! There is no room on the spotlight stage when it comes to the Sultan of Turkey! Oh……..by the way……….did I mention the Kurds are Sunni? What are the Turks……for the most part? What’s taking place in the region? Oh ya…. A religious, faction, Civil War.

PROXY:

Conflict by “proxy”. That is the 20^th and now 21^st Century way of large nations doing business. If the Kurds need to be neutralized, send in the Proxy fighters. Who are the proxy fighters for the Iranians? Shia Militias! What are the Kurds? Sunni?  Can anyone see where this is heading? Will the GCC support Shia Militias fighting the Kurds in Iraq, Syria, Iran, Tukey? Are the Saudis willing to let the Turks, a declared Ally, stand by and watch fellow Sunni’s be wiped out? How much satisfaction would the Saudi’s gain from observing the Kurds, tremendous fighters by the way, drive Iran crazy? Hint, all of this has been going on for several years now.

Proxy groups are the flavor of the day in the Middle East and that is not going to change. The issue of the Kurds and their drive for independence has been on the radar from day one. It’s the one thing the Turks and the Iranians truly fear. Does the issue of Kurdistan drive two old rivals into some type of delusional alliance? Who would that upset? How would it really unfold? How would the Sunni Arabs react? In just a few days, the Kurds are going to vote. No one is going to acknowledge the outcome. No one is going to stand up for the Kurds. Even those who would will be neutral at best. Here is where the Russians come in. The Iranians cannot be allowed to crush the Kurds. It’s up to the Russians to keep that from happening. As for the Turks! Well, Egodan, as I call him, see things one way. His way! If all that happens on the 25^th is a proclamation, a proclamation no one will recognize, then the Kurds will have to force the issue. Then what? A day doesn’t go by that the Middle East Region doesn’t become more and more complicated……………………….dangerous! 

THE RUSSIAN/ CHINA PLAN FOR NORTH KOREA. “ PLATA O PLOMO”?

The new Silk Road is the answer? “Joint the club and make money”? Is that the concept the Russians and the Chinese have come up with for North Korea? Enticement? http://www.atimes.com/article/russia-china-plan-north-korea-stability-connectivity/

I have to admit, when I read this article, I had to smile. It’s a seen right out of the God Father movies.  No surprise here. The intent of the Russians as well as the Chinese is to keep the US / West / from finding its own answer for the North Korean issue. War on the Korean Peninsula is not an option for the Chinese or the Russians; or the South Koreans for that matter. So, let’s get all sides to sit down, with the exception of the US, and let’s talk what really matters. MONEY!

Yes, the allure of the new Silk Highway allowing the Korean Peninsula to be united, at least along economic lines, could be a tempting approach to the crazy fat guy in the North. Telling a story of, “we can all make money and all these hard feelings will go away”, that sounds enticing. Even the Japanese came to the table, or they came to listen that is. On the surface, it sounds like a “Great Deal”! So, what happened? Why didn’t the Hermit Kingdom jump on the deal? What “downside” could they possibly see? The fact of the matter is, they did turn it down, for now as they put it. Why? Why for now? What other goal other than survival as a nation might they have? To the Russians / Putin/ the response must have been puzzling! Who turns down “deals” from the God Father? More importantly, who sleeps at night knowing they said “no” to the Don?

Carrot and the Stick:

Did the Russians and the Chinese come up with this “deal” in a true collective? Was this truly a Russian / Chinese plan? Did the Tsar come up with the idea and the Dragon simply said, “Okay….let’s see what they say”. Do either of these countries only offer Carrots? Does anyone think this offer was made with no mention of the “Stick”? What else may have been communicated to the North Koreans when this offer was made? If the concept was openly covered, what about the alternative?

PLATA O PLOMO:

Is the Tsar and the Dragon “Plata O Plomo” kind of of leaders? Oh….most of you have no idea! What is Plata O Plomo you might ask? For those of you who don’t know, in Mexico, when a Drug Gang ask the locals to do something, the presentation is simple. “ Plata O Plomo”! Silver or Lead….. you choose! Was this a Plata O Plomo moment for the little fat guy in North Korea?  I would be willing the unofficial message came as soon as the North said, “ Not right now”! The little fat guy needs to learn Spanish quickly. Something tells me that was his ONLY “Plata” offer he will get. His successor will get the same offer. If that offer has already been made and the next “Great Leader” has said “Si”, then the little fat guy may be have another old saying coming. “ Tonight, he sleeps with the Fishes”! 

NORTH KOREA AND NOW A HYDROGEN BOMB?

How many times have I written about the issue of North Korea? Has anything really changed? Is it even with talking about? Is anything going to change? Why am I even taking the time to write this post? All good questions and for that reason, I’ll once again weigh in on the issue.

HYDROGEN TEST:

Was it a Hydrogen device? It appears so. Does it matter? Yes.  Why? From a tactical level, the destruction efficiency is vastly superior to a typical nuke. Pardon the pun, but it’s a matter of more bang for your buck! If true, it’s a physiological victory that allows the Little Fat Man, perhaps I should stop calling him a nickname that is related to a nuke weapon, to continue to thumb his nose at the West. So, if it’s all true, score yet another one for North Korea.

CHINA:

I’ve said it before and I will just keep saying it. It’s in China’s power and interest to solve the North Korean issue. Two years ago, I spelled out a simplistic, but dangerous concept for the Chinese. It went something like this. Get some of the North’s Generals to accept a deal they can’t refuse. Get them in position to Kill the Little Fat Man and then invite the Chinese / South Korean governments to form a coalition, interim government after the coup takes place. Hint. They don’t have to invite the US to the party. When the dust settles, the Chinese have what they want and the US / West has what they want. A North Korea that is no longer a threat to the world. The US / West without an excuse to have a large standing military on South Korean land. A China that shows the world they truly are the only nation that can solve the complex problems of the region! Sound simplistic? What is the alternative?

THE US AND ITS ALLIES:

I’m not going to use the “Kick the Can[DS1] ” metaphor this time. I’ve used it over and over again just like the US leadership has for the past three decades. Options! Someone tell me what the options are for the US? Someone tell me how you solve this never-ending crisis without pronouncing a death sentence to a million people in one city alone? If your answer is a ballistic shield, a system where launched warheads are intercepted in flight, then tell me the plan for convincing the Chinese the same system will not be left in place to counter any Chinese capability? Take a look how that conversation has gone with the Russians and the issue of Europe. 

CAPITULATION:

Is that the answer? Capitulation? Does the US and its Allies simply make threats against the use of nuclear weapons and there by admit they are going to live with a nuclear North Korea? There is every hint in DC that is exactly what is taking place. What will that lead to? What so called, “message” does that send to other rouge nations such as Iran? Is capitulation the bluff the next madman can count on? For Iran’s sake, I hope and pray that is not the case. The resolve of the US may be based upon the unacceptable price of war, but the nation of Israel cannot spell the word, “Capitulation”! And with that, the ugly truth once again comes to the surface. The North Koran event is not just about North Korea. The ability to get where they with nuclear weapons didn’t come from North Korean Scientist. Those who have allowed North Korea to achieve this goal are responsible for the future that may be about to unfold. The Dragon wants everything its way. It wants to dominate world trade, the new Silk Highway. It wants to be the new leader of the world as we stumble into the 21^st century. “Let them eat Cake”. That may be the attitude, but here is another old saying the Chinese may want to ponder. “You can’t have your cake and eat it to”.  Kill the little Mad Man. Get the North Korean Generals to accept the offer you can provide them. Give the US a reason to pack up and go home from South Korea. Do these things and the world may just avoid the next nuclear war.

---

 [DS1]

INDIA AND CHINA….AS IF THE WORLD NEEDED ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONFRONTATION.

First off, let me just say I don’t believe India and China are going to go to war. Okay, that’s out of the way. Now I just hope I’m right.  Anyway, it wasn’t that long ago I spoke to the issue of India and China. Unfortunately, it seems both sides are willing to push the topic of tension just a little further. By the way, this must come as a complete surprise to the Russians. Remember, they too are a member of the BRIC, and we all know the BRIC is one big happy family! So, what is the deal? Why are these two BRIC members stepping towards a fistfight? Sidebar. I read today Chinese and India troops were tossing rocks at each other in the disputed territories everyone is talking about. As a person who spent most of his adult life in the most professional military in the world, I find it amazing two, modern-day militaries could degrade themselves by having a rock throwing event take place. Both of them should be embarrassed.  That worried me! 

A NEW CHAMP:

Two nations with populations well over a BILLION people! Why would anyone expect them not to have ambitions on the title? Both feel the time is nearly here for them to wear the Belt!  The new Champion! The new undisputed Champ! For several years now both have watched the West and Russia decay. In the eyes of the world, the US seems more divided now than at any time in the recent past. Russia is trying to mount a comeback, but the limits of their economy simply will not let them enter the ring. They might play the part of spoiler, but the changes of the belt going to them is slim to none, at least without a really large war. So, India and China sit in the same weight category, at least on the issue of population and potential, future economic growth. India is not anywhere near the Dragon in military strength, but when you have over a BILLION people and nukes, you are never out of consideration for the title match.  

SILK ROAD DETOUR:

The absolute Center of Gravity for the Chinese has become the new Silk Road concept. Here is the problem for the Billion Indian folks who have nukes. The new Silk Road takes a deliberate detour around their location. Even worse, it is building stops in the backyard of India’s so called partners / Sphere of Influence. Why would that be? If the intent of the New Silk Road is one big, happy, global family of economic trade, then why the detour? I will tell you why and this is not news if you have read what I’ve been saying for months now about the New Silk Road. The only “Road” the Dragon is building is the highway to dominance. World Dominance and a Billion Indians with nukes might get in the way of that plan.

INDIA HAS ITS OWN DREAMS:

Is India far behind the Chinese in military might? Yes, with the exception of Blue Water Naval Operations.  Does India have a dream of being a major power in the future? Absolutely. Would the Chinese Silk Road project jeopardize that dream? Yep! Will India be reluctant to show weakness on the current issue of territorial rights? Yep. Will China? Yep! Does this dispute have the propensity to get worse? Yep. So, two nations with over a BILLION people each and nukes are standing nose to nose over a slice of dirt that has strategic value to the Chinese master plan? Should we be worried? I’m sure I’ve missed numerous economic issues that would have had this read more like something out of the Wall Street Journal or Asia Times and for that I apologize. It’s just that it’s hard for me to think about two major Military powers, both with nuclear weapons, both who up until now I’ve held in high esteem, getting into a rock throwing match. Should we be worried? I’ve asked this question time and time again. but, Is it possible for the world to go to war without the US being part of the initial decision making process? World War I ….World War II?  Rocks……tossing rocks at each other?  Captain Morgan take me away! For all my Muslim friends…just kidding…….Apple Juice…I’m having Apple Juice! 

KIM JONG-UN “WALKS BACK HIS THREAT TOWARDS GUAM? DID HE AND IF SO, WHY?

So, the Little Fat Guy in North Korea “walked back” his threat? We can all look the other way now. Once again, we can kick the North Korean Can down the street. It’s been a very long street! Does everyone feel better? “Peace in our Time”? One other fool made that comment years ago. But, for argument’s sake, let say he really has had second thoughts or a change of heart. Before I get way down the road of why, let me go on record as saying…………..I don’t believe him. Never take the word of a complete madman. That’s been one of my golden rules for years. Okay, back the “why”.

CHINA:

Did the Chinese get to him? Who did the week long war of words really impact? Did the game of Tennis between The Donald and Kim unnerve the Chinese? Is the timing not right for the planned war? So, the Chinese stated they would go along with the latest UN sanctions on North Korea? Really? Because, if they did, it would mean more trouble for the Little Fat Guy than he could handle. 90%. That is what the Chinse mean to him. 90% of his trade. Did even his crazy little mind figure out he may have gone too far, at least for now? If he did, you can bet he didn’t like it. If the Dragon looked down on him and began to inhale, he may have got the message, but he will toss a fit when the Dragon flies away. It’s that post, “OKAY….OKAY… I will tone it down”, issue that makes me doubt the “Peace in our Time” statement.

THE DONALD:

Crazy statements from an American President unlike any the world has seen in modern times. Was the Little Fat Guy really ready for the way The Donald reacted this time around? Did Trump actually get to Kim? Lord knows the Western Media will never see it this way as they are all on the hunt to bring down the Trump Tower in DC. But………….But………. Did Trump win the “I’m not kidding” game? If he was smart, that is exactly how his team would play what just took place. Interesting enough, I truly think the Russians may think Trump backed Kim down. It’s a tactic they admire and it’s not impossible their perception is, Trump won the war of threats.

I CHANGED MY MIND:

So we wake up sometime in the very near future and the Little Fat Guy is at it again. Then what? Does the Dragon swoop back in, land look down and him and start to inhale? Does The Donald come up with the next twitter comment that sends the Progressive left and their legion of media stalkers into a frenzy? If the Chinese really did put real pressure on him not to execute the Guam event, you can bet he is already dreaming up his next stunt.

TIME:

Here is the point that scares me. The US estimate of North Koreas nuclear strike ability is stuck in the political and international world. As I stated a few days ago, the real intelligence on North Korea is the picture no US political leader wants the public to know. The US military only has one stance on the subject. If the US goes, it goes to win. That’s it. Simple. No, exit plan. No five year out, rotation plan with billions to be made by the legion of contractors that follow US conflicts. Crush your enemy. Do it without mercy and look at the rest of the world and say, “ I told you so”! That is the military mindset and to the Left, that is the picture the antics of The Donald over the past two weeks has presented to the world.  How in the world can you have a forum on the future of public bathrooms if some madman in DC is talking about nuking another madman? At the end of the day, the Left will get their way. Kick the North Korean Can! Deep inside the rooms of the Intelligence Agencies the hard work is being accomplished. When will the Little Fat Guy fire his next test? When will he be able to put an EMP shot into the upper atmosphere over Japan or the West Coast of the US? Good luck my friends, for we all know your reports will be shaped to tell the story from the viewpoint of someone or party, worried about the next election. 

CHINA TO “REMAIN NEUTRAL”

The media in China. It’s nothing more than the mouthpiece of the government. Yes, some say the same thing about the West, but it’s nothing more than a rhetorical statement once someone or some nation calls them out into the light of the obvious. So today, a Chinese media outlet makes the statement that China would remain “neutral” if North Korea took any action that might threaten the US? A scripted message? Yes. Every statement from the Chinese is “scripted”. Flying off the handle like The Donald is not a characteristic of the Chinese. “We won’t protect them if they do something really stupid”! That’s it? That is the message? Who is the message for? The North? The US? Yes…..Yes to both. Then came the backside of the “message”. If the US or South Korea, ad any other US Allies here if you like, take actions to try to change the government in North Korea, China will not “allow” that to happen. What does that mean? You can strike the capabilities of the North, but just don’t attempt a regime change? Leave the Little Fat nut-job in power? Sounds crazy, but wait, what was the End-State of Desert Storm?

LOCKED AND LOADED:

Yes. The US military is “locked and loaded”! It is always “locked and loaded”.  So, what else could that mean? If that statement is a message, who is it to? Worse, who reads it and thinks it’s for them? Is the US and China talking about this latest round of North Korean madness? You know they are. Can someone get the word to the Chinese that, “Locked and Loaded” doesn’t apply to them? Well, we better hope so. Who can make the next inflammatory statement? This is like watching a Tennis Match and the Chinese sponsor both players.

BACK TO THE BASICS:

I’ve been saying this for a few months now and it’s time to say it one more time.  Let’s look at the basics of this whole issue.

China’s desire is to be the dominant power in the Pacific.

China’s desire is to control the world economic trading process. Can you say New Silk Road?

China realizes the goals they have set are not going to be achieved without conflict.

China must manipulate that conflict to insure the damage doesn’t nullify desire’s one or two.

China anticipates the population in the major actors of the conflict, US, Japan, South Korea, are not and will not be supportive of a dramatic event.

China believes that after such an event, the logic for US military power in the region will be gone. Win or Lose.

China has prepared itself to be the one nation that can “rebuild” the economic damage to the region and the world.

China sees at the end of the day, China has what it wants. It’s the Regional power and it controls the rebuilding of the world economy.

Sound crazy?  We are witnessing a very scripted process on the part of the Chinese. A process that has been yeas in the making. Today’s message of, “We would be neutral”, perhaps it’s the last shove to get two people into a fight?