Friday, July 15, 2011
























WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK IN SYRIA?


If you didn't notice, something changed this week with the events in Syria.

Damascus had a much larger part in the Friday demonstrations.

That was a very disturbing event for not only Assad, but for Iran as well.

In my opinion, it's just another nail in the coffin of the Syrian Government.

The real "Redline" as far as the Syrian Government and Iran are concerned is Damascus.

Protest there, large ones, push Assad to the point of total violence or capitulation.

Damascus joining in increasing numbers is a signal to the Sunni Businessmen that Assad can not salvage the government.  

So, what could be the next steps taken by Assad and Iran.

When you get right down to it, Iran has two options:

            1. Continue to support Assad and pray something happens that changes the            landscape.....  Distractions... never forget my theory of distractions.

            2. Begin to  salvage a relationship with the next government of Syria.

There is no option of military interdiction in Syria for the rest of the world to include Iran.

Rumors of Turkey setting up a 'protectorate / free zone / in Northern Syria is simply not realistic; not at this time.

Having said this, it is simply unrealistic that Iran will simply standby and watch Syria fall into Sectarian warfare of worse, the hands of the Sunni / Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

The risk of warfare / regional warfare, grows as Syria continues to fall apart.

Hezbollah hold on Lebanon will not last if it's support from Syria is cut off by the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

Iran will never have the tools it needs for a war with Israel if it loses both Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

This is no longer about the people of Syria or Assad.

It is quickly becoming an issue of Regional Stability.
P.S.  The city of Hama / Hamah ( Spelling ) is now the Benghazi of Syria.