Monday, November 14, 2011












THE ARAB LEAGUE AND KING ABDULLAH.. WHO ELSE WILL PILE ON?

Not only did King Abdullah add to the tension of the Arab League pulling back on Syria, but I even heard an official spokesperson for China state China is having second thoughts.

That would leave truly only Russia in the Syrian camp... besides the Syrian Masters in Iran that is!!!

Even Russia's spokesperson got the proverbial " third degree " from Al Jezeera today, getting him to admit most of Russia's concerns are purely economically driven.

So, is Assad getting to the end of his rope?

Of all the things that have been said about the events of Syria, none of them are more damaging than the reaction of the Arab League.

Now, the AL is not the most accredited organization in the world... as a matter of fact most consider it to be laughable most of the time.

The problem for Syria is, the AL does impact the perceptions of many Arabs and that is what the people inside Syria who still back Assad will worry about the most.

For months just about anyone who knows the Middle East has taken one basic line on the Syrian conflict.... as long as the Sunni Businessmen and other financial supporters of Assad stay behind him.... as long as they truly believe that a post Assad Syria is more disasturous than a brutal Syria... Assad will stay in power.

Here is the crack in the armor..  the crack that may crumble Assad's world.

When the AL starts to openly pull away from Assad... when the " collective" of the Arab world gives up on him.. even those who know having him in power is better than having
the unknown of a sectarian conflict in Syria... then Assad could very easily panic... and if he panics... so could Iran..

Here is the real danger of the actions of the AL.

One would hope the AL thought deeply about the second order effects of their public statement on Syria.

As paranoid as Assad and Iran probably are right now.. after the actions of the AL... if Assad even begins to think his true backers in Syria are going to pull away from him... well... all hell could break lose.

Phone calls telling him where he could live and what " others" might do to help him decide to leave will probably not change the course in the near future.

Let's watch over the next few days and see if any of his true supporters inside Syria show signs of dumping him or leaving the country..

Look for Iran to blame the AL rulling on the West.. namely the US and if that doesn't float .. look for Iran to blame the Sunni / GCC influence on the AL..

At that point.. we will be very near a real emergency in the Middle East.