HEZBOLLAH .. THE ONLY WAY OUT IS ALL THE WAY IN!!!
Sometimes the only
way out of something is to ride it all the way through!!
For the past two days I have taken the position that
Hezbollah is now officially stuck in the Syrian quicksand and has absolutely no
"Exit Plan".
No one seem to understand this better than Mr. Nasrallah!
He understands it so well that he gave the speech today
about victory for Assad and how Hezbollah would insure it's arrival.
What made him do this?
Did the Persians give him the " you are all the way in
speech / orders?
Perhaps.
What is more likely the answer is that reality has set in.
Nasrallah knows his forces have no chance of disengagement
and when your whole life is driven by blinding testosterone, well, the end
result is predictable.
But, something else in his speech virtually floored me
today.
Not only did Nasrallah come to the realization he and his movement
is virtually trapped in the Sectarian Civil War, but he made the totally insane
prediction that Assad was all but guaranteed victory given Hezbollah's
commitment.
If any of his actions in this conflict are fatal to his
movement, then this one is at the top of the list.
Is Hezbollah all the way in?
Absolutely!
Could this prove to be Hezbollah's most critical error in
their history?
Yes!
I know the argument can be made they had, in some opinions,
little choice given the strength of the Sunni movement, but full commitment has
a tremendous risk... the risk of total failure.
Let me put this another way.
The GCC and Israel ,
from a strategic standpoint, could not have been happier with Nasrallah's
speech.
If Hezbollah's involvement was the purpose of the
"trap", then the objective has been achieved.
But, as I hinted to last night, everyone needs to be extremely
worried as to what level of commitment Hezbollah has now reached.
Let me give you an example!
In Lebanon
today, this speech by Nasrallah was seen as a nearly doomsday snapshot!
Simply put, if Hezbollah now realizes they have no way out
of the Syrian / Secterian Civil War, then the amount of pain for everyone
involved could be substantial.
Was a trap set for Hezbollah with the objective of reducing
or even nutralizing their capabilities prior to a larger regional conflict?
Perhaps!
But the price of that "trap" could prove to be
just as costly as the event the trap was intended to avoid.
