Tuesday, July 9, 2013

BOMBING IN BIR AL-ABED... DOES IT MATTER WHO DID IT?

















All day long the "who dune it" game was being played by all the talking heads in the media.

There was one group who wasn't playing this meaningless charade... Hezbollah!!

Since the day it became official, months after they really showed up, that Hezbollah was active inside Syria, everyone that knows the region predicted what was going to take place.

Today's bombing is a poor excuse for the timeless, " I told you so"!

I'll go back to my strategic comment of how the Sunni fighters will attempt to force Hezbollah to concentrate on their "home front", thus drawing their commitment and support away from actions in Syria.

So, was today's bombing an act of revenge or was it a strategic attempt to disrupt the Hezbollah base?

Yep... you got it.....it was both!!!

Now, the question some were trying to answer today centered around where the bombers Lebanese or "others/ outsiders?

Again, from the perspective of those who will seek revenge, it doesn't matter and in reality, it really doesn't matter to anyone else as well.

For the sake of time, lets get passed the "who / why" phase and get to the "so what" category!

So what?

What does it matter this bombing took place today?

Does it mean there will be more?

Silly question.

Does it indicate the decay of Lebanon!

Yep!!

Will it pull Hezbollah support from Syria?

Nope!!!!

Will Hezbollah leadership feel the heat from it's support base for dragging their hometowns into the crisis?

Yep!!!

Here is the deal; Hezbollah, as I said weeks ago, is all the way in with little chance of pulling out.

The trap of sectarian conflict has been sprung and Hezbollah took the bait all the way when they moved into Syria.

Yes, I know all the gossip is based on how Assad's forces are making headway in Homs and moving on Aleppo and yes I realize it seems to many on the outside the civil war in Syria is turning for Assad and his Masters in Iran.

Incase you forgot, let me remind you what I predicted weeks ago when Assad seem to be gaining the upper hand.

It's one thing to take territory back from an enemy!

It's an all together different story to hold it and bring it back to any level of "normal".

The support, weapons wise, from the GCC  will have a wave effect.

Just because some of the more sophisticated tools may be showing up, that doesn't mean the tide will turn back to the Sunni fighters in a matter of a few days.

Today's events involving Hezbollah are just the beginning of weeks or months of more bad news and more pressure from the home front to come home.


http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jul-10/223166-specter-of-strife-looms-over-lebanon-after-blast.ashx#axzz2YbF69eGx