Monday, February 14, 2011


OPTIONS  AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF  OPTIONS!

If, and I think it's more a matter of when, the day comes the nation of Israel decides to take action to secure its survival, she will have several basic options to chose from.
1. total defeat  of her enemies' military options.
                Hard to do and an extreme risk of ever increasing escalation.
2. Neutralization of the most dangerous  options available to her enemies.
                Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran's nuclear weapons program. If you think Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program, then you are free to leave this conversation.
3.  Make an example of "someone" / Hamas / Hezbollah /.
                A theory of scalable conflict, but fraught with danger given the resolve of her current enemies.
4. Agree to UN "Peacekeeping Operations in areas such as the West bank and Gaza.
                Yep. I know; ridiculous, but I had to list the option.  
So; the question becomes, what "option" does Israel chose?
My opinion is Israel may just go for broke!!!  Yep, option 1.
Why?
Simple; limited campaigns have a low probability of doing any more than buying Israel two or three years of peace. 2006, 2008 are examples Israel has not forgotten.
Yes the price of "total warfare", and make no mistake, that is what we are talking about here, is frightening to say the least.
Israel knows what many of us suspect and have suspected for several years now; Israel is running out of time.
The light of day will not shine on a Nuclear Iran! 
Hamas, Hezbollah, Lebanon and yes even Egypt are tools in the overall game of survival for the people of Israel.
The more the Arabs rejoice in the ever increasing pressure of Israel, the more the government and the people of Israel understand what is truly at stake here.
What's the old saying, "a cornered animal is the most dangerous". This is not to imply Israel is a nation of animals, but the basic premise doesn't change. If "Options" are limited and survival is truly the issue at hand, then to estimate Israel will limit her actions would be a grievous error in the history of the 21st century.
Now; it is possible Israel will give perhaps a short lived attempt at "Brinksmanship", but do not hold your breath for any Israeli version of Chamberlin emerging from a Brinksmanship moment.
Much of Israel was nothing more than sand when the nation was formed. It will be nothing more than glass if she must give that same land up!
Dangerous times are ahead!
On Tuesday, I will get down to the tactical level of what Israel may have to do and how she just might be able to pull her "option" off without the whole region going up in flames; if only a few key "allies" will help her. Hint. More than just the US. A "new" Ally who is close by.