TRUMP’S MESSAGES 

WHAT DO THEY MEAN AND WHAT DIDN’T HE SAY? 

Like most of you, I listened and watched, watched because the visual part was more important to the region than the words. When it was over,  the first thing I did was turn off the networks. How President Trump gave his speech was important, but the messaging inside the speech, that was brilliant. If you have followed me for the past several years, you know one of my basic rules of dealing with issues in the Middle East. You must look for the messages inside the message. It’s a classic Arab concept and it’s played to the tilt. Okay, now that I have that scene setter out of the way, let’s get down to what took place yesterday. Now, everyone has opinions and that’s the main reason why I turn off the networks. It’s a given that many people will interpret what the US President said in a variety of ways. Let me give you my interpretation looking at this event through the eyes and ears fo two groups; The Middle Eastern Nations and Russia. China? Ya, I’ll touch on that as well. So, here we go! 

NO NUKES: 

After the, “. In your face” way the US assassinated Soleimani, was there any doubt over President Trump’s opening statement? Do you think anyone in Tehran listened to those words, with the Service Chiefs standing behind the President, and thought, “ No way he would attack our facilities”. So, the fist message was black and white. From that point on, the messaging became very complex, for everyone, to include the real enemy of President Trump, The new US Socialist party. 

NATO AND OIL: 

“We no longer need the Middle East oil and it’s up to Europe to find the new balance with the region and Russia”. As a reminder, I’m looking at this speech from the Middle East and Moscow glasses. How did that message go over in Saudi? I’ve said for two years now, the inbound King of Saudi is looking for new alliances, but not under the conditions the Russians and Chinese would require. Bottom line, Saudi doesn’t trust Moscow or Beijing.  

How did this messaging go over in Moscow? NATO, the dirty word Moscow hates, and for good reason. If President Trump was giving the hint, “we are out of the region”, then does Moscow truly believe that NATO has the stones to step up to the plate? Nope! So, was this, in the end, good news for Moscow? If I was in Moscow, I would have looked over and seen that Cheshire Cat grin the Tsar is known for. The US is selling fuel, not buying it and until some nut job like Sanders or Pocahontas gets in the White House, that fact will remain. So, what did the Middle East hear? “Don’t need you and don’t care”. 

The People of Iran:

Here is where the message inside the message really hit home to Team Khamenei. When the US President made the statement about the future of Iran and then followed it up by a closing statement to, “the people of Iran”, you could hear the old men tossing their shoes at the set all over the world! 

Did Tehran interpret President Trump's comment to mean the US would support further uprisings in Iran? You bet they did. More importantly, did the, “people of Iran” interpret this message the same way. Oh ya. How about Moscow? What Moscow heard was, the US is going to stir the pot in Iran, but talk about leaving the region. If anything President Trump said yesterday could lead to further action by Team Khamenei, it’s this topic of, “ the people of Iran”. It made me think of one of my favorite topics, The Law of Unintended Consequences! Did someone on Team Trump think through the impact of this message? Too late now. 

Yesterday’s address by the US President may have been part of the “Off Ramp” concept, but the messages inside the messages, that is what the region and others heard. ‘ Don’t try to build a bomb. We don’t need the region. EU try and grow a set and take on the region you keep telling me I’m approaching all wrong. We are going to make life a living hell for you inside your own country Mr. Khamenei’. And with that, the US President left the podium. 

What was not mentioned:

I must admit, I was so busy interpreting what President Trump was saying and showing, that I may have missed something, but let me bring up two topics that I’m a little confused about. 

Flt PS752: 

Did the US Intelligence Community/ IC / have an understanding of what happened to that airliner leaving Tehran, leaving right in the middle of a possible war for that very city? Did the US have enough situational awareness of anti air systems in Iran to see what was launched and where? That depends on the size of the weapon. A shoulder fired system would have a chance of being detected if the airliner had the systems to do so. The US would have the ability if we had active air operations over the area. The fact of the matter is, the crash of this flight is very....very...suspect. 

If the US knew this airliner was shot down, shouldn’t the US President had said something about it during his speech? If he walked up to the podium and said, “ The murderous regime in Tehran shot down a commercial airliner”. Just what took place here? The video clips I’ve seen clearly show a motor in flames, the kind of event a shoulder fired weapon would create. The incident happened in a area that would have been protected by air defense assets. The Iranians seem very reluctant to let anyone see the wreckage; sound familiar? The Ukraine?  Just what is the level of training of Iranian anti air teams? How professional are the Offices who run these teams? I will give you a hint, the level of technical and professional training in Iran is not even measurable compared to what takes place in the US Military. Screw up in a training exercise and you don’t get an Article 15, administrative punishment, you get beat! How’s that for pressure for some low hanging fruit, ADA, unit? You think you are at war and then this aircraft comes flying over. You didn’t even work in that area up until a few days ago and you have not had real training in months or longer. Could this airliner been shot down? I would say yes, the odds are better than 50/50. So, what happened to this story? BBC ran something this morning about how the aircraft attempted to return to the airport. Indications are, the aircraft declared no mechanical emergency and the airliner’s track didn’t show a struggle for speed or altitude. It went from everything fine, to disaster. Sounds like something happened and that something was not a normal event. 

Here is what I hope is not the case. I hope, pray, the answer is not, “now is not the time Mr. President to bring up this event. We are looking for a way out of this, not to make it worse. Let the Ukrainian government and Canadians push the issue. If they bring it up, then it only strengthens our position on the actions of Tehran”. Like I said, I hope and pray this is not the case, but this event is very disturbing. 

Israel: 

When the US President made his indirect comments about not needing the region anymore, he din’t mention not leaving Israel? Why? No mention of the US’s alliance with Israel. Why? Again, the issue of timing. I can bet you the decision was made to avoid any discussion of Israel in this speech. Talking about Israel and the alliance between the two nations is not a pathway to an Off Ramp! Did this upset Israel? Nope. Why? Because their government already knew there would be no mention of Israel. Like I said, I was not completely tuned in for the whole speech, but these two topics seem to have been left out of the script. Wait. Did anyone hear the US President use the words, or something close to, “You better not do it again”! Did I miss a typical Trump statement? Oh ya.....Off Ramp......I forgot! Here is one thing about, “ Off Ramps”. Sometimes that ramp is very short and the next thing you know, you are right back in heavy traffic.