TEHRAN’S OPTIONS:
Yesterday, my topic of conversation was focused on the events of Soleimani’s assassination. Towards the end of that post, I touched upon the response options Tehran might consider. As I watched things unfold in the past 24hrs, I came to the conclusion, “touched” was not sufficient. I knew I had to expand my explanations on options after I spoke with an old friend who has lived in the region for decades. My conversation with my good friend and the actions Tehran were reportedly taking, https://www.debka.com/__trashed-13/ , https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51001167. Convinced me to do this follow up.
Deeds before Words:
As I said yesterday, the US and it’s Allies will not respond, at least I don’t think so, based upon social media post or speeches given at funerals. Those words may indicate anger, sorry or even political posturing, but it’s the actions that physically take place that tell the real story. Did Tehran begin to reposition assets yesterday? If so, did they do so understanding those movements would be monitored and thus, create a perception that may not be valid? Can organizations and or nations physically take actions that give a message or create analysis, but have no intention of becoming actual operations. Welcome to the every more complex world of Psychological Warfare. It’s reported Tehran moved key militia leaders, repositioned Hezbollah assets it what seems to be a prelude to a much larger operation. Remember all the talk about the, “Red Flag” from two days ago? Is that what is taking place here? Is Tehran actually taking steps for a pending operation / war? Perhaps these reported actions, and others the IC would see, are not preparation for offensive actions, but defensive? When President Trump made the comment the US would strike back in a disproportionate manner if attacked, did that drive Tehran into protecting key members and assets outside the country? It could be, but that’s not my bet. Oh, by the way, did anyone stop to think some of those “key” militia officials may have moved themselves on their own? Would you want to be driving around Iraq right now? Nope; I don’t buy the defensive action assumption, and I don’t buy the theory it’s a bluff. So where does that leave us? Preparation for a real conflict? To some extent, yes. But.......but.... that’s not our last option.
Paranoia:
In my post yesterday, I addressed the issue of panic, panic amongst the leadership inside Tehran. Let me present another option on what might be taking place with all these actions by Tehran. Paranoia, and I don’t mean based upon potential US / Israeli actions. My hunch is, the paranoia inside Tehran is based upon loyalty. I don’t know how many of you have ever been faced with immanent death, but I am here to tell you, the brain does strange things. Let’s assume the leadership of the Khamenei’s Proxy groups truly believe Tehran is going to engage in a major conflict. Let’s assume these same proxy leaders have read or heard President Trump’s statements about responding to such attacks. Here is another bit of information. Proxies, such as Hezbollah, have their own intelligence networks. As a matter of fact, Hezbollah has a very complicated network. Each of these proxy groups, especially those made up of Arabs, Arabs who have no real love for Persians, are forming their own opinions on what is about to take place. Don’t forget the statement by Hamas. They basically said, ‘we are not taking part in this pending conflict’ Tehran may control their proxy groups, but the level of trust between the groups and Tehran is always suspect. Yesterday, I addressed the issue of loyalty inside the Iranian military and the stark reality of facing a certain death. If this issue is possible inside the Iranian forces, just think of what might be taking place within the proxy groups. At the end of the day, yesterday most likely, many of these proxy leaders may have sat down and said, “ Tehran intends to attack the US military with our assets. The destruction will be ours. The deaths will be ours. Our loss of status will not be refilled by Tehran. Even Tehran may suffer unimaginable losses. Our we really prepared for such an event? Is that in our best interest? Is there a way out of this for us”? Does anyone believe for a minute, all of these groups didn’t see the statement by Hamas? What typically happens when a crack forms in an already shaky alliance? His is my last comment on this section of my post. Did these militia leaders move on their own free will, or, where they replaced? Just how paranoid is Team Khamenei? Okay, that wasn’t the last comment, but this one is, and it’s a good one. If this theory of mine is not true, what a great Information Operation this would make for the US and Israel!
No turning back:
President Trump’s statements about the US potential reactions to any attack on the US sets a very, very dangerous limitation on Tehran. Just what can they get away with? A few rockets flew near the old Green Zone yesterday? Was that it? Nope. If Khamenei doesn’t take some drastic action, then this becomes a clear victory for the US and a huge campaign issue for President Trump, and that is something the other party simply hates to think about. Sick huh? Cheering for the enemy, disguised as, “we are only worried for the people”! What we cannot ignore is the fact Tehran will have to respond in some fashion and when they do, it’s up to President Trump to execute or not execute that promised, “disproportional” response. Khamenei cannot survive losing his number one protector at the hands of the “Great Satan” and do nothing. Khamenei cannot survive pushing the Iranian military or it’s proxies into a meat grinder. The public will burn him down. He can risk staying in power by once again slaughtering his own public as they attempt to overthrow his government or, he can risk looking like a complete blowhard by settling for a few rockets into the old Green Zone. It seems he has no middle ground. So, does Khamenei have a no way out? Is there truly no turning back? Not so fast!
Teletubbies:
Europe. Can the EU provide Khamenei a lifeline? Is there a way out of this crisis by Khamenei turning to the EU? Notice I didn’t say Moscow. I know I often talk of the lack of a real relationship between Moscow and Tehran, but trust me, Moscow is not the savior of Khamenei this time around. Can Putin leverage the event? He leverages every event. Will he keep Tehran from destruction? Probably not, and that’s a story for perhaps tomorrow. Okay. Back to the Teletubbies. So Tehran’s announcement they are no longer complying with the JCPOA, by the way, it should be called the JCPOS, I’ll let you figure out the last three acronyms, sent shivers through the Teletubby land. The little Blue Tubbies ran and hugged the little green ones and probably ran around in small little circles. Just how desperate would the EU be to salvage the deal they all singed onto with Tehran? Desperate is an understatement. If Khamenei’s phone range right after Soleimani went to meet his virgins, you can bet it was someone or ones from Teletubby land. Why not Moscow? Hold on. We will go over that tomorrow. Now, does Tehran respect the EU? No. That was not a joke. I can’t count how many times Tehran has threatened, promised and generally lied to the EU. Why? Because Tehran knows they can. Let’s imagine a phone call takes place, perhaps yesterday, between the leader of the Teletubbies and Team Khamenei. It might have gone something like this. “ Listen. If you don’t find a way to get the madman in the White House under control, the whole Middle East is about to go up in flames. I am prepared to go to war with the US and Israel if I have to, so you better figure something out and fast”. And with that, the Teletubbies started to cry! The phone rings again, and this time it’s Teletubby leadership collectively crying to President Trump, “ You have to stop...... Tehran is really mad and they are going to do bad things if you don’t stop”! Alright. Does this sound melodramatic? It shouldn’t ,for this is an accurate portrayal of how the EU thinks. “ Let Tehran have some face saving event. Maybe we can convince them to limit it to a oil tanker or two, and then you can be seen as the person who actually forced them to the table”. Now, I am here to tell you, this is close to what has already taken place. I would bet my ranch, and I have one, on it. How did Khamenei drive this message of, “ you better do something” home to the Teletubbies? Yep, the JCPOA statement, that’s how. “Get Trump to accept some token response or bad things are going to happen”. That’s it. That’s the logic behind the JCPOA statement, at least from my foxhole. Will it work? Here is the bad news for Team Khamenei. When was the last time President Trump gave in to a silly Teletubby idea? It’s not going to work. Once again, pressuring the EU is not going to when the day for Tehran.
Back to the Top:
Let me wrap this post up by going back to my main point. Tehran can have the largest staged funeral ever. It’s not going to change the reality on the ground. The people of Iran hate their government. Trump is not going to listen to the EU. The proxy groups are thinking twice about being slaughtered by an enemy they can see or touch. All the pressure in the world is sitting smack dab on the shoulders of the old men in Tehran. “Damned if you do, damned if you don’t”! That old slogan fits like a hand in a glove, with the exception of OJ, here. Khamenei is backed into a corner and that makes him a very....very......dangerous animal.
The Moscow perspective. That comes tomorrow, if Khamenei last that long!
