HAS THE SYRIAN REDLINE BEEN CROSSED.. AND WHY?

Well, by this time, everyone out there has most likely heard the story of possible use of Chemical Weapons in the Syrian conflict.

Most of the talk today  centered around, did it really happen and who did it?

I will tell you this, the ability to determine if it happened and what the agent used may have been is a fast and somewhat simplistic issue.

It must be assumed for months the ability to "detect" such an event has been in place in most of the most likely cities or locations based upon intelligence from multiple nation-state "agencies".

Did it happen and what was used, if it did happen, is known by now.

The question becomes what should the reaction be and how is a unified front projected to if the news is "confirmed"?

Upon hearing this story  this morning, one item really jumped out at me.

Why did the Russians jump on the Assad side of the argument so quickly?

It's almost as if the statement was ready to be "briefed" as soon as the story broke?

Odd??

Yes..

Disturbing and ominous is even a better description of what I was thinking.

Why was the Russian reaction not one of, "Let's first confirm this accusation before we make any attempts and placing responsibility"?

Remember what I have been saying about the use of WMDs all along.

There is absolutely no way the Assad government will execute such an event without "buy in" from Iran and Russia.

Could this explain the Russian nearly immediate response?

Ok, lets assume for the sake of argument, an "agent" was utilized today.

Why?

Why now?

What is the "End State" of such an event?

As to "why"; I am convinced the question is more appropriate if we say, "why now"?

Is it based on the President of the United States trip to the region?

I would doubt it simply because I'm not sure why crossing the "redline" as the US President was in the region would make any difference.

Could it be to embarrass him?

Unlikely!

Could it be to send him a "message"?

Again, unlikely... What would that message be?

More importantly, who would that proposed "message" be from...really????

Assad.... Iran ..... Putin??

Again, what would be the goal of such a message?

Before, we go any further, lets put to bed any notion the Rebels took this yet unconfirmed action.

If the weapon was delivered by a rocket, it would mean the Rebels somehow took control of a fully functional Chemical capable missile and had the knowledge and capability to aim and launch it.

Highly unlikely to say the least.

Would the Rebels use a Chemical weapon on their own people just to frame Assad?

Do they have any history of doing such a act in the past two years???

Not that I am aware of.

Ok, back to the real issue!

Why?

Here is my theory.

Assad has made a limited attempt to show the world just how serious he is about keeping power and he has the backing of Iran and Russia in his actions.

Yep... my bet is the Russians and the Iranians knew it was going to take place and most likely set the "limits" on how it would happen?

Why just one attack?

Why just one location?

Because it's a "message"... indeed a warning!!!

The gamble by the Russians and the Iranians is this; the West will not react for just one strike... just "limited action"!!

Ok, as you ponder this puzzle, here is yet another issue to take into consideration.

Is Syria preparing to conduct limited actions in Lebanon?

The stories out of Lebanon today of Syrian troops clearing minefields along the Lebanese border and bulldozing new approaches is tactically a indication of a pending assault!!!!

The Syrian Air Force strikes along the Lebanese border fall right in line with my "warning" theory.

It  all comes down to this.

Assad has been given a green light to step up the pressure with the assumption that limited actions will negate Western response.

You can bet this....

The confirmation process has already taken place and the answer is known.

What becomes the "response" and what is the response to the "response".

For over a year now, we have talked about such a day.

Could it be that such a day has taken place?

Can this be written off as just a missile strike on a Chlorine tank... again???

Midnight oil burns in the Pentagon and the halls of our Allies.

Can everyone in the region be convinced to "sing the same song or tell the same "story"?

More importantly, can the government of Lebanon keep the lid on an outraged public sitting on the edge of a Sectarian Civil War?

Yet another chapter has been set in motion for the entire region and I'm not sure who has the ability to control the next move.

rttp://www.cnn.com/2013/03/19/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_t1