ALEPPO “FINAL ASSAULT” WHAT’S HAPPENING? IS THIS FINALLY A SHIPWRECK?

I intended on addressing the issue of India and Pakistan and the growing danger stimming from the Kashmir conflict. Honestly, that situation is just as dangerous as the current political crisis over the air attacks on Aleppo. But, today’s continuation of inflammatory statements from Russia has lead me to readdress the Syrian issue before I can get back to Pakistan and India.

Perhaps in the next day or two, I will do a more complex review of where things stand in Syria.  After tracking this event for over five years, many issues remain the same, but the intent of some of the outside players have taken a potential ominous turn. For now, I will stick with the hot topic, Aleppo and the pending ground action.

Does the Syrian government see the significance of regaining control of Aleppo, or what is left of it? Yes.

Does Tsar see the battle for Aleppo as an indicator of Russia’s actions in Syria? Yes.

Does the West / US / really have any viable options for influencing that pending ground assault in Aleppo? No!

So, who holds the upper hand on Aleppo? Yep. The Tsar.

Are the Iranians, Syrians, and Russians in lockstep over the issue of Aleppo? No.

Does the West / US / understand how to leverage this superficial alliance between Iran, Syria and Russia? No! That is why the advantage is on the Russian / Assad side, well, the Russian side at least.

Just how damaging is this Aleppo issue in terms of Russian / Western / US relationships? Let’s put it this way, the US is talking far tougher than any of its Allies, with the exception of England. To Europe, the pending battle for Aleppo will only have one impact on them, the assurance of more Human waves heading to Europe.

Some are wondering why the battle for Aleppo is so emotional for the US. Why are such harsh words coming out of DC? What has happened that would lead a progressive, passive administration to talk about pending body bags full of Russians being shipped back to Moscow? What changed that has the US making statements such as, “all options are on the table”? Is Aleppo really that important? Are the numbers killed in the past two weeks really that horrific? Should we compare the killings in Central Africa in several ongoing conflicts, what makes Aleppo unique? By the way, under the leadership of Bill Clinton, an estimated 300,000 people were massacred in Central Africa in less than four months. Remember, according to Bill Clinton, he was the first real “Black President” in the US. Sarcasm? You decide.

Is the US administration so frustrated by being outmaneuvered by the Tsar time and time again that a professional approach is breaking down? Is the US “losing it ‘cool”? I would suggest that is exactly what is taking place.  As of today, the official mouthpiece of the Tsar, Sputnik, has painted a picture for its readers, Russian readers, of the US threatening Russia to her face! 

Is conflict between the US and Russia actually possible? Could the US and Russia come to blows over something as trivial as Aleppo? Before you say “no”, you must factor in a deadly combination.

A few weeks back, I commented on the dangers of frustrated passive governments perceiving they are being taken advantage of, being pushed around and having their compassionate temperament used against them with the end state of being made to look like fools.  Have you ever noticed how passive people can suddenly become engaged in an instant and the explanation is, “they were pushed over the edge. They were push too far”.

So, ingredient number one: Frustration, enduring, embarrassing frustration!

What is the other ingredient?  Panic!

Is the US administration near panic over the Russians actions in the Middle East? A little over a year ago, the Tsar decided to enter the Syrian conflict and by doing so, begin to realign the entire region’s balance. Turkey is now less of an Allie of the West than at any time in the past 100 years. Europe is on the verge of tossing out every progressive government in the EU with the human wave from Syria being the central cause. The South China Sea is not an issue of a Russian, Chinese Alliance. Have nearly eight years of US foreign policy lost at sea created a page in history that will mark the Obama administration as a disaster in world history? Has the perceived conflict between the US Department of State and Department of Defense exposed the administration’s leadership crisis?

The story goes, last week, the US Secretary of State argued for armed conflict by the US in Syria and the US Department of Defense disagreed with passion. The US Secretary’s comment was, “I lost the argument”. Now, think about that. John Kerry argued for conflict? Conflict with who? When did John K become a military planning expert? When did he develop the skills need to identify proper targeting? What did he argue should be attacked? Syrian Airbase? Airbases that have Russians working on them?  What did he argue the Tsar’s reaction would be? Would he take the losses and just say, “Ok, I give. I’m going home now”! The guy who Tiger hunts with his shirt off? 

Panic. Are these signs of panic and Frustration?

Can panic and frustration lead to conflict? The Russian are reporting the US is going to act in Syria. If they believe it and are stating it in public, what is their plan to respond? That is what you will not hear.

Is this just about Aleppo?

Has the ship lost at sea finally become a shipwreck?

I hope Donald Trump’s taxes and Hillary’s trustworthiness are not the only things people are paying attention to.