THE “PLAN” FOR COMBATING ISLAMIC STATE FORCES….WILL IT WORK?

I’ve purposely avoided posting for the past three days, although  I don’t like do so, as I waited to hear the President of the United States divulge his “plan / strategy” for combating the Islamic State Movement.

By the way, just because the US President gave a quick little explanation as to why he and his staff continue to address the IS forces as ISIL or ISIS, that doesn’t mean the world will follow.

So, back to the question everyone who worries about IS worries about.

Will the US strategy work?

I waited a few days to hear this strategy, and then spent a day pondering what it would lead to or what it would be impacted by.

If you have followed me for the past few years, you know exactly where I am going with this.

Did the strategic planers capture the possible second order effects topics?

Did they think through the class Law of Unintended Consequences?

Yes, the overarching question is, “will it work” and I will end tonight as I have for the whole month; asking a question for my readers to ponder.

Having said that, let me list the issues that must be addressed if anyone has the slightest hope of answer this most important question.

After listening to the US President’s speech, I had to prioritize my doubts.

Here we go:

How does the US support the Free Syrian Army, if you can call it that, and not protect them from Assad?

Who is bombing the FSA?

Islamic State Forces?

No; at least not with Iranian barrel bombs…yes…. The same Iran we are supporting in Iraq!

So, the US and it’s so called Allies, notice the Turks backed out, supply and train a FSA unit.

Supposed this unit defeats a IS force in a given location and the next day, Assad’s forces attack that FSA force?

Does the US respond?

Next:

So and FSA unit that is supplied and trained by the US and it’s Allies is engaged in combat with an Al –Nusra force?

What does the US do?

Were  Al-Nusra forces part of the President’s speech?

Does the West take on the image of fighting only Sunni movements as it supports Shia Persians in Iraq?

Next:

Lebanon?

If Islamic State Forces dissipate into Lebanon, and trust me, dissipating is exactly what they are going to do, then does the US bomb them in Lebanon?

If they operate out of Lebanon, does the US attack them in Lebanon?

Remember, the US President’s words were, “anywhere they exist”!

Next:

Turkey?

An end state of a defeated IS movement and a reinvigorated, armed, PPK / Kurdish state?

Ya…right…

A Turkey who is given absolutely none of the credit for solving the Syrian Crisis?

Ya…. Right…

Next:

Islamic State Forces / movement in Africa?

Nothing recruits better than being the underdog when it comes to a Western Super Power Pounding on a group who shares the same sect of religion or beliefs.

In the move Andromeda Strain… it is discovered that if they blow the virus up, it will only grow stronger!

Next:

Yet another Proxy war?

Yes, this starts with the US President stating this is about IS and it’s horrific acts, but where do our enemies take it?

Where does the Tsar take this event?

Where do the Iranians take it?

One thing about conflict the US President may have overlooked; you enemy gets a vote!

Ok, I could go on and on, but I think my point is made.

Defeating a movement is far more complicated in the 21^st century than planning a conventional war with a conventional enemy / state.

Killing the enemy is one concept.

Killing the movement is a whole different issue.

What is the core of this and any movement like it?

Lack of hope….. the absence of true governance…. No sense of any possible future.

Does this sound like the babble of Progressive Liberals?

Yes.

Is it almost as impossible to achieve as defeating a Ghost like enemy with Air Power?

Yes.

Defeat a “Vison” with a better Vision!

Can it be done?

I know what can’t be accomplished, but I will not answer the core question I started this topic with.

The vision of the GCC to create jobs, industry and education and in the end…..hope….that is the answer for the region.

That takes vision, dedication and sacrifice and in the end it will require “change”.

I know… a word the US is really sick of hearing.

In a matter of days or weeks, the Islamic State Forces will disappear into the shadows of winter.

The weapons will be hidden.

The troops will blend in with a population the West will not openly bomb.

The West will declare victory and pull the mission….. Remember a place called Serbia?

A few months after that, a new group… a new movement will begin to destabilize a region of the world already destabilized.

The new flavor of the day will be upon us and the crisis starts all over again.

Hide to fight another day…… That is what we are up against and that only if our real enemies don’t turn this into something more than a quick media stunt to answer critics.

Remember this... I called the Arab Spring the Tunisian Virus for a reason.