THE UNITED STATES:

A NATION DIVIDED CANNOT STAND. 

PART TWO: 

CAN IT REALLY HAPPEN? 

Yesterday, I spelled out what I believe are the three main ingredients for a destabilizing environment to take hold. 

1. Poor political leadership, no, not Trump.

 2. The age of information overload.

 3. A population that is "spoiled."  

So, today, let me attempt to show you the ingredients for the destabilization to actually get underway. As you will see, one topic shows up in both conversations. 

The State of Politics:  

My rant on the state of US politics yesterday was based upon my own experiences and my own observations. Today, my comments on political leadership takes on a much broader view. Yes, it's a more expansive view based on my opinions, but that's the purpose of these post right; my opinions? 

What is the most critical issue in US politics, especially at the national level? Did you guess reelection? If you did, then you and I are in agreement. "Get there and stay there." It's an objective that only occasionally is overcome by the desire to "move up"; you know, gain more power. It's not a new phenomenon, but it's one the people in the US are witnessing 24/7/365. Again, the issue of social media and the internet brought about this change. When someone in the US turns on the cable news, all they are going to hear is the bickering between the two political parties. This bickering is amplified by a media network that has become little more than political tools, weapons for both sides. Have you heard anyone say anything good about the Main Stream Media / MSM/ in the past several years? Politics and the media, an out of balance duo that drives the people of the US deeper and deeper into a civil divide.  

Dependency: 

About two months ago, I wrote a post on the status of US cities and the decaying relationship with "flyover country." Here's the link, and if you want more detail on what I am about to say, then I would suggest you read that post. 

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2019/08/cities.html?m=1

Modern-day, US major cities. What are they, I mean to the politicians, at least one party of the US  political system? Voting cattle pens. That's what major US cities have become. Places where one party has rounded up votes and kept them alive until they are needed. Voters in these pens/cities/ are feed, provided shelter, and even given medical care. They are expected to accomplish absolutely nothing until the time comes for them to fulfill their usefulness. Does this analogy upset you? Remember, this is all just my opinion, but I bet most of you agree with me, especially after you read my analogy. 

Cities, the largest concentration of voters in the US. The major cities are controlled by one political party in the US, and that is precisely how that party intends to keep it. Independence, that's a concept that one party must keep from spreading in these major cities. The last thing they want is to have the cattle escape into open range!  

What's has been the most effective way for this one particular party to keep their voter base loyal, I mean besides keeping them inside the major cities? Fear! Scare everyone loyal to you that if you lose power, evil will descend upon the world. Before I go further, fear is a tactic of both political parties in the US, but the reality is, one party is far better at the tactic than the other. So, at the end of the day, fear is the primary tool of politics in the US. Whatever happened to patriotism, honor, the gratification of hard work? On the topic of patriotism, I will get back to that issue in this post.   

What percentage of the current US budget is tied up with entitlements? If I told you it was over 70 percent, would you be shocked? Is the word "entitlement" a bad word? No. Are certain people in the US, "entitled" to some level of government funding? Now there is a topic that causes a great deal of heated discussion. In my opinion, yes, some are "entitled," but many may not like my very... concise list of who makes up that group. I don't want to get bogged down on this topic, so let me drive on to the critical issue of entitlement. 

For one party in the US, the concept of entitlement has become a vote capturing bonanza. Now, here is the brilliant part. That same party has learned how to link that political weapon with the other one I mentioned; fear. Combined Arms. It seems one party has mastered the political version of this military concept of warfare. Promise every level of entitlement you can think of and then use the fear booster to make your voter base believe those entitlements would go away if you lose power. In 2019 the issue of entitlements is the gift that just keeps on giving. Santa Glaus is the disguise of one party in the US, a disguise worn by the Cattle Barons! 

What's the issue with the US budget being over seventy percent entitlements? If you guessed funding, you are really with it today. If you have a party that states to its voter base, " I will give you everything you need, deserve, and I will take it from those that have, "too much," whatever that means, what becomes the endstate problem? Yep. You bleed the, "too much" donor to death. Okay, now, when someone believes they are being abused to the point, they may no longer have the ability to live the life they have built, what happens? One of two things takes place. 1. the Donors rise up! Pay attention. This is where this post really gets going. 2. The donors, leave! If one level of donors departs, what does that force the entitlement party to do? Yep, bleed the next level. By the way, every time I hear the expression, " The Rich," I have to ask myself, who does that truly address? I was in a particular hellhole on the other side of the world once, and someone who actually owned a car was considered "evil" because they were "rich." "Rich," it's a relative term! When I was young, I thought someone who owned new care was "rich." Okay, back on track here. If entitlements have become the norm for securing votes in the US, at least for one party, then how does that party control expectations? If I tell you,  I will pay for a place for you to live. I will pay for your healthcare, and I will pay for your meals, then why would you not start expecting more? What's the battle cry now of the spoiled? Pay for my college. More.....more.....more! What happens when the party that promises everything, simply runs out of the ability to provide for that growing list of demands? I'll tell you what happens, it has two choices. 1. Blame someone or some group for the failed increased entitlements. 2, as is the case with the US federal political leaders, simply print more money. Option one doesn't stop the demands of those that party depends on for votes. Even if the fear weapon is used, it still doesn't provide the answer to increased demands. Option two is far less painful and actually becomes the tool of the so-called "compromise" between parties. Here is another ugly reality. Both parties have a common goal at the individual member level. Stay in power! Compromise. It's the word both parties brag about, but at the end of the day, what it really comes down to is a dept that just grows and grows and grows. By the way, who owns a big slice of that debt? Boy, that's a whole different conversation, perhaps down the road someday. What's the glue that holds the US together? It's the same glue that holds any modern nation together. 

The Economy: 

DC is out there, just spinning in its own atmosphere. The soap opera of trying to take out the one true, "outsider," Trump, is the mission now of both parties. The "Swamp." Most people have a mental picture of a small body of water that is often avoided and, thus, ignored. What The Donald never understood was the reality, the "swamp" of DC was more like the Pacific Ocean; you can't get from one place to the other without dealing with the ocean. Did Trump underestimate the size and depth of the "Swamp"? Absolutely. Did he misinterpret who was part of the "Swamp"? That's the issue that has him on his heels. The party of entitlements and the other nation called, DC, is after the one guy who wasn't supposed to be there. Think that statement is exclusive to the Conservatives in the US? Think again. I can tell you, many people in this world quietly see what is taking place in DC as nothing short of a coup. The problem is many support that coup attempt. Does all of this bother the cattle inside the major cities? Only because most perceive The Donald as representing the segment of society that refuses to pay for more entitlements. "They won't give me my fair share." One person's coup is another person's struggle for what they are entitled to. By the way, here is an alarming fact. The party of Cattle Barons is losing power to an internal struggle. Yep, the Cattle Barons are under attack by the free rangers. No borders, no rules,  no authorities; well, with the exception of those who believe in this new, radical slice of the Cattle Baron's party. They will be in charge of the "new order." Remember my comment about entitlements, " where does it all end"? Who is in charge of the nation when anarchy rules? Thank God we are a Republic. Okay, back on track. 

With everything going on in DC, with all the talk of a coup attempt, where is the focus of the typical US citizen? When you flip a switch, the lights come on. When you go to the store, the shelves are full. When you turn on your water, it works. When you use your debit card, the bank responds. Why does all of this happen? How could things appear so horrible, so bleak, yet everything seems to work? I will tell you why it's because of those who get up in the morning and go to work. It's because of those who put on a uniform, military, and civilian and give everything they have. It's because of those who pay the bills/taxes. It's because of those who listen to the childish statements from DC and still do what is expected of them. In other words, it's because those who dream of a better nation, a nation still based on hard work, those who are patriotic enough to keep the nation alive. That's why the nation keeps going forward.........................for now! 

Enough is enough: 

When does that statement become a reality?  What event or events set in motion the wheels coming off the nation? The US has endured a great deal of hardship, but to be honest with you, the difficulties of this nation pale in comparison to other nations. Remember my statement about lights coming on and water running? That's the part of the world I have worked in. Do we have it good here? You bet we do.................for now! 

So, again, what would need to happen to change the stability of the US? Now, that' a serious question given the US's enemies look for that same answers. Is it the economy? Yes. Is it a complete loss of faith in governance? Yes. Could it be the geographics of the US no longer having enough in common to keep the nation together? Remember my statement about the US being a Republic. With all the talk of division in the US, could the nation truly slide into a crisis? Here is the answer this whole blog post is based upon. Yes. Yes, the US can slip into a crisis unlike any it's it's past. Any? Does my opinion include the events of the US's Civil War? Yes. Does that scare you? It should. 

What percentage of the population of the US truly believes one party is attempting a coup against the duly elected President? That's not the way to look at the issue. I just wanted to shape the question that way to let you see the difference. The real question becomes, what percentage of the nation needs to feel as if the country they believe in, the nation they work hard for every day, is in real jeopardy? Let me give you a little history lesson for analysis. 200k people marched on the capital of Egypt and did so for a little over a week before the government fell. In Syria, two cities protested what they believed to be a need for a better life. Look, I could go on and on, but here is my point. The concept of a segment of society standing up against a government they no longer can live with is nothing new. What is new is how the real number of who stands up can be manipulated by a world consumed with mass communications. 

If one segment of the US believes President Trump must go and he doesn't, then what? What if The Donald is not only not Impeached, but reelected? "Pay my College Bills" take to the streets, right? Those that live off of entitlements work on their spelling and hold up a group of posters that show they are upset. Where does this all take place? Yep, in the major cities! Yes, the Cattle begin to riot inside the pens. Who is there to stoke the flames? The US's enemies, that's who. Think about Hong Kong. If the President survives the coup attempt, then what does that hold for the nation's future? Just how violent will things get? Think that's a worrisome scenario? Let me give you one much, much worse. 

What if the people who truly make the nation work, the ones who pay the bills and don't live in the pens, what if they say, "enough"! What percentage of the US population are we talking about? Remember, what percentage does it take? If the cattle inside the political pens rise up, what is impacted? The larger cities? Does anyone remember the Watts Riots? Who paid the price for the destruction? The poor did. The people who live in the pens! What happens when the folks who produce the food, make the products used inside the cities decide, "enough is enough"? What happens when "fly over county" hears the duly elected President, the one true "outsider" is Impeached and removed from power? Don't think it can happen? If so, you have a great deal more confidence in the weak-kneed, survivalist Republicans in the Senate than I do. Oh, did I mention those weak-kneed Senators are part of the "Swamp"?  Do you still think it can't happen? 

Part 3 of this story comes tomorrow, and I've decided to change the name of part 3. I'm now going to call this segment, "What it could look like." I apologize if these first two installments seem a little dark. The bad news is, part 3 is going to make parts 1 and 2 look like Christmas Stories. 

THE UNITED STATES:

 A NATION DIVIDED CANNOT STAND. 

PART ONE:  

HOW DID IT COME TO THIS?

This is Hard: 

This is hard. This is hard for me. In my head, I've started this discussion over and over again. I made the statement I was going to finally dive into the issue of the US's stability, and that started my mind racing. I've always told people, my intent was and is to inform. I desire to talk to people about the issues that might threaten their day to day lives, their quality of life. I've worked to watch the globe asymmetrically; to look for the issues worthy of explanation. My career was based upon reacting to and mitigating those events that would threaten the nation that I served. In the early years, I never challenged why my government tasked us to do. As the years went by, it became almost impossible not to question some of the events we were involved in, but I was a professional. I was a professional NCO and I was a professional officer. At the end of the day, my duty was to follow orders, accomplish the task given me. 

I came home in 2002 and stepped from the world of command into the world of strategic operations. What I did and where it took place is not important to this topic. Over the course of the next few years, my understanding of how the nation truly worked grew and grew immensely. From the world of Defense Support to Civilian Authority / DSCA as it was known then, to Continuity of Government, COG, my reality began to change, and by realty, I probably mean my perception. My job had me interacting with a segment of society I virtually knew nothing about; politicians. You see, I avoided rotations to DC for 25 yrs. When I was told I was, "damaging" my career, I politely agreed as I went back to what I loved; command. That changed in 2002/ 3. My life became a daily journey into the world of local, state and federal "politics". How could the military support civilian events? How could the military / Department of Defense, leverage the resources of the largest federal agency in the nation, without stepping on the law of the land and more importantly, upsetting politicians? Terrorism, hurricanes, borders, pandemics, floods, fires, earthquakes, it seemed I was tossed into every scenario possible. What could "we" do and what could "we" not do? Everyone, at every level of government, had their own perception of DSCA. Just when I thought I had seen it all, the largest, eye-opening concept of all pulled me in. COG! To say I was ignorant of what the COG was truly all about was an understatement. Continuity of Government, the US government. How does that work? Think you know? Have you read about issues like, " National Essential Functions, FEFs? Have you heard of a place called, " Mount Weather"? Hollywood and conspiracy nuts. They aren't even close. In 2005, my career and my world changed, and with that, I will move onto a more important discussion. 

My exposure to the politics of the nation was both educational and alarming. My career was built around sacrifice, honor, and duty. These were not the categories I found myself working within. I am and was a quick learner, and learning was just what I did. How to "they" do their business? How do "they" approach events that might lead to a crisis? Can "they" ever, effectively work together? Do they even want to? After about a year of "supporting" them, I came to my first hard reality. Their sense of duty, honor, loyalty was very different than mine. Some operated with good intentions, but it became clear, the ultimate goal was reelection, moving up, gaining power, looking better, smatter than the competition or even your friends. Yes, after the first year of my journey into DSCA, I was convinced. The leadership I was dealing with had very different goals and just about the time I was truly becoming disenfranchised, I was pulled into COG. Someone was looking out for me. Someone had been watching me. I was good at what I did, but those I did it with, well, it was a very different world than mine.

COG showed me one thing. If it all went wrong, terribly wrong, the nation had a "plan". To most people, even the ones in uniform, COG was a relic of the Cold War. It was a process based upon the doomsday issue of nuclear war. Let me keep this part of the story simple. COG is much more than just preparation for a nuclear war. ( By the way. I dove into this COG issue when I decided to write my book on the events of the next World War).  Long story short, COG restored my faith that someone inside the federal government was actually focused on what was good for the nation. Yes, COG and the task that process handed me, saved my desire to stay in the service. 

So, there you have it. That is the scene setter I had to provide. That's the story of how I began to pay attention to what was taking place in the nation. My efforts were moved from overseas warfighter to, figuring out how to keep political leaders from failing in a time of crisis, even when they seemed focused on something other than the security of the nation, state, community. Side Note: One point I have to make. The order of focus was simple to see. Locals typically, not always, but typically, worried about their community. States worried about the state of the State. I guess that's why we are a Republic fist! Lastly, federal figures seemed consumed with how events may impact them individually. My opinion? Yes, but the data I have to back that up would fill this blog site for months to come. 

History: 

I've painted a picture of leadership that seems out of touch. So-called, leaders who place their careers and party first. It was alien to me and I am the first one to admit I may have seen these leaders through my own glasses. Has the US seen a time when leadership was not all about themselves? Honestly, my bias showing again, has the US ever not seen such a period? FDR. A hero to the Democratic party. A man who openly challenged the authority of the US Supreme Court. A man who realized his vision for the nation was more important than the nation's legal system. Look, the truth is, US history is stuffed with examples just like FDR and that plays right into where I am heading. 

For the sake of argument, let's assume my opinion of political leadership is valid. If history tells us it's always been this way, then why am I taking the time to talk about something I truly didn't wish to address? My answer is this. History is exactly what its name indicates, it's "history". Yes, yes, I know the old saying, "if we don't learn from history, we are bound to repeat it", or something like that. To me, it seems like we have been repeating ourselves for well over 150 years. Has the public grown accustom to the hollow words of political leaders? Where do they rank on a national survey of jobs people admire? I bet you know the answer. Nothing to worry about here right? Wrong! 

Times change. Beliefs and opinions change. Perceptions change. What was once considered just another example of the same old thing, could be transforming into a very.....very dangerous event. How many times, if you read my blog, have you heard me address the issue of Social Media? How often have I made reference to a world of billions of people able to communicate without government filters like the media, and do so in the time frame of seconds, not weeks or days? Has the concept of social awareness taken on a dramatic change? More importantly, has the concept of constant communications become a weapon? Can a society slip into a state of near madness simply because of nonstop information? the world has changed and those changes are not based on old "history". people are drowning in information, information that is almost always useless to their daily lives. If I am correct, and I say I am, then just how destabilizing can this change become? Before you contemplate that answer, let me give you one more ingredient. Let me make my last point in this post. 

Spoiled: 

Just how spoiled are most of the people in the US? How is it possible to protest over being poor when you are 100 lbs overweight? How many people in the US have worked in a land where 300 calories a day was a feast, a feast you only received perhaps every other day? Have you ever seen children sleeping in a massive pile just to keep warm? A pile that is visible because it's on the sidewalk of a major street in a major city? I have. Who in this country, that likes to bitch...pardon my language, but this topic gets me going, has witnessed dead bodies in the open with people just walking by? I could go on and on, but let me make a more profound statement. The world has over 7 BILLION people and over 3 BILLION of them are trying to stay alive, trying to find a meal, trying to sleep without fearing they may be murdered. When was the last time anyone in the US had to navigate the rubble of a city completely destroyed knowing there was absolutely no one coming to help? By the way, if you bring up 9-11, you have no idea what I am talking about. Intitled, demanding and uninformed; the typical US citizen who feels compelled to toss trashcans in front of intersections because they are outraged. Massive communications with people who truly are suffering and a spoiled percentage of the population, that my friends is a recipe for disaster. Oh, wait. I forgot, poor to nonexistent leadership. You have to add that to the formula. 

Okay. Part One. " How did we get here"? This has been my scene setter. Over the next two days, I will post my followups. 

Part Two:  Can it really happen? Can the US fall into a real crisis? 

Part Three: What does the crisis look like? 

Not a pleasant topic. I know, and it's one I truly didn't want to address. The problem is, I am more and more convinced that repeating history is not going to lead to the same old results. The US is reaching a dangerous level of instability, social divide. It's time to address the structure of this pending crisis and what needs to happen. More to come.   

THE CLIMATE IN MEXICO. 

WHAT DOES THE "MIDDLE CLASS" THINK? 

Surveys. Are they really worth the effort? If you were to look at the last presidential cycle in the US, you would probably come to a conclusion, most surveys are not worth the paper they are written on.
Here is my issue with the whole topic of surveys. Find me one that is not, at its core, based on bias. Corporations have made the survey issue into an industry, all the while convincing people they are too stupid to conduct a "proper" survey. Yep, the survey world is an industry and one the politicians spend BILLIONS on. Universities design entire departments around the art of surveys in the hopes of landing those huge, political bank accounts. So, here is my question. Are surveys really that hard to do? With a little bit of effort and background, can't the "simple person" conduct a somewhat accurate survey? The answer is yes, and that answer creates the sound of fingernails on chalkboards to those who make a living with surveys. If that sound is not bad enough for the survey experts, the public perception that surveys are mostly worthless, well, that's heresy! My experience with the concept of surveys? As a Commander, I utilized surveys for decades. Did I have variables that made the briefing process look like some physics formula? No. KISS. Keep it Simple Stupid; that was my formula. How effective was my formula? Sixteen consecutive years in command and not one Inspector General/ IG compliant. Find me a commander that did the commander tour as long as that who can make that claim.  Surveys. KISS. That's the key, but it's not how an industry of politicians think and worse, they don't care.

My "Survey": 

Okay, first off, a big shoutout to the person who helped me pull this data together. Claudia! If you want to follow a smart person on the topic of Mexico, follow @mexmama71.  What data you may ask? Well, I will tell you, but the title of this post should have given that answer away. What do the people who really hold Mexico together think? Who might that be? Again, look at the title of the post. Does the Middle Class of the US hold the nation together? You bet it does. As a matter of fact, the "Middle Class" of just about every, civilized, modern nation has that class as the glue that binds.
Here is what I set out to do. If you pay attention to the events in Mexico, you typically hear about the terrorist cartels and or the actions of the Mexican government.  When you listen to people in Mexico voicing their concerns, it's typically the poor or the kids on campus. Where is the opinion, voice, of those who hold Mexico together? Why is it we never hear from them? Now, once again, "professional surveys" have been conducted, for a price that is. Have any of you read them? Do you think the companies that put them together care if you have or haven't? If you didn't pay for it, they don't give a hoot! Biased? You bet I am. Okay, back on track. The Middle Class of Mexico is just like the Middle Class of the US and many other nations. They are too busy working, paying taxes, and keeping their world stabilized. Do they have time to march up and down the streets, breaking out windows and shaking stupid posters in the air? No. They are the people who get up in the morning, or evening, and keep their nation functioning. What's the saying in the US; "The Silent Majority"? Does that designation belong to the Middle Class? For the most part, yes! 

What did I set out to accomplish? Simple, what's the opinion/perception/ of Mexico's Middle Class?  With all that is going on, AMLO and his drive towards a new "revolution," the terrorist cartels basically defeating the Mexican government for the control of a city of over 800K people, what do the people who hold it all together think? Folks. That was the goal, and with the help of Claudia, I think we reached a percentage of that Middle Class. Stop, if you come back with, " ya, but was it scientific, just go away. No, really, go away!

Snapshot:

When my units would show up in some far off land, one of the first things I would have my Headquarter's Staff accomplish was an assessment of what those around us, the friendlies, thought of us being there? If you can't trust the "friendlies," then the job of keeping everyone safe is nearly impossible. That assessment process was typically conducted in a verbal format, heresy, I know! Side Note: I use to love when someone from the IC or the DoS would come to us and say, "here is what you can expect from those around you." "Thank you," and in the trash, it went! What I was looking for was a "snapshot." A quick analysis of what we were up against, and I have to tell you, it worked, and it worked far better than documents from DoS contractors or the IC. 

My goal was to accomplish a "snapshot" of Mexico's Middle Class, and with the help of Claudia, that goal has been achieved. By the way, the survey is still out there, and feedback is again coming in.

What did it show:

 The survey was made up of ten questions; again, the KISS principle applied. I'm not going to list each question verbatim. What I will share with you is the general trends I've taken from the data. Oh, by the way, what was really interesting, was the feedback Claudia provided after she saw the survey results.

Who does the Mexican Middle Class trust? 

Over 75% of the people stated they didn't trust any level of government; that includes federal, state, and local. Now, think about that for a minute. You are educated and work hard every day of your life, and when someone asks you do you trust the government, the answer is no! Remember my comment about glue?

Is Mexico getting worse?

67%  believe Mexico is getting worse. What is the definition of "worse"? I don't care. Let each person have their own concept of worse. I'm looking for raw feelings.

Considered leaving?

You know how I have banged on the drum of mass migration and the event the US could be facing if things became terrible in Mexico and other nations to the US's south? Well, almost half, 42%, the people who responded stated they had considered leaving Mexico. By it'self, this statement may not excite too many folks, but mix this answer in with the totality of all the feedback, and you may place a much larger value on the question.

AMLO:

Yes, this survey went out to the Middle Class, and that class of people in Mexico are not real supporters of the way left of center President. 92% think AMLO will not make Mexico a better place. If that answer was given in the US, most would just say it's a sign of party politics. That doesn't hold true in Mexico. What 92% indicates is a validation of the first question, who do you trust? The "glue" doesn't trust the President to make things better!

The US is hurting the situation: 

The question basically asked, " is the US hurting or helping the current status of Mexico"? The answers shocked Claudia, but she gave a sound reason why it may be true, and I'm not going to share her answer simply because some of you would not understand her analysis. Yep, she's a very educated and smart young lady. 67%. Think about it. 67% of the Middle Class feel the US is hurting Mexico. This is not the folks trying to sneak across the border. These are the people who are staying home trying as hard as they can to make Mexico into the nation they dream of. What do they think the US is doing to hurt Mexico's future? Well, how often have you listened to me rant about the US's approach to the whole region? How often have you heard me say, " the hell with the EU, let's salvage our relationship with the Americas"! The "Glue" of Mexico doesn't see the US helping the situation. Regardless of what you think, that answer has to change!

If you witnessed a crime:

Would the Middle Class of Mexico report a crime if they saw one taking place? The combined answer was yes! Just about 65% said they would, but 42% of that yes vote stated it would depend on if the crime was being committed by someone or group that might come back after them. What do you think that answer indicates? Yep, the terrorist cartels. Take that caveat away, and a little over 20% would be willing to report a crime. 20 % of the Middle Class, not the poor or the rich. In reality, those two group's numbers might be lower.

Protest:  

Are the people of Mexico going to indeed protest in the near future, not just the college kids looking for something to do, but the real, taxpayers of Mexico? Anwer? 75% said yes! Stop. Let that answer sink in. What happens to a nation when the " Silent Majority" takes to the streets? Pull up the latest pictures from Lebanon or Iraq. The Middle Class, the taxpaying class; they are heading towards sacrificing their comfort zone.

Culiacan: 

A whole bunch of "Experts" have been racing to get on talk shows to tell the world what impact Culiacan had on Mexico and the threats that might impact the US. Did anyone in the US pay attention, or is the soap opera in DC all anyone in the US cares about? This was an answer I was really anticipating. Did Culiacan make Mexico less safe? Almost 80% said yes. As a reminder, that's 80% of the Middle Class, not just the people of Culiacan, but the Middle Class across the country. A city of over 800k was lost to a terrorist cartel, and that shook the Middle Class hard. Again and again, how much confidence can the "glue" loose? At what point does the glue give?

Wrap up:

If at the end of this post, you are one of those that goes back to this issue of," ya, but was it a proper survey," then I have one last response. My format worked for 16 consecutive years without fail! Put up or shut up!

My goal here was simple. What is the status of the Glue? Just what indicators do I look for as I attempt to evaluate the future of Mexico? In DC, it's all about economic indicators. Why, because DC is all about the topic of money. Money is power, and the status of money reveals the status of power/stability. DC. The place where train wrecks are recognized only after the smoke is seen rising into the skyline. Thanks, Claudia. Let's keep pushing. Let's help the glue of Mexico hold the place together.

MEXICO. THE FAILED OR FAILING NATION STATE 

Does anyone read Asia Times? Well, Asia does, and that means China. Does AT typically address issues in Mexico? Not really. So, was it unusual for this site to publish a story about Mexico becoming a "failed state"? Yes, but it took a severe event to make that story worthy of the editor's approval. What was that event, you ask? Why, of course, the battle of Culiacan, that's what I call that event now. Is it Mexico's Fort Sumter? If you read the story by Manuel Suarez-Mier, it just might be. The fall of every nation-state doesn't take place at the apex of the nation's health. It almost always happens after a prolonged illness, an illness that impacts every aspect of the nation's society. If we are to trust Manuel's descriptions, and I do, then the picture he paints of such an illness is obvious. Is Mexico a failing / failed state? Let's take a look at what Manuel had to say. 

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/10/article/how-mexico-became-a-failed-state/

Embraces and not bullets:

 Do the Mexican terrorist cartels exist because of poverty and income inequality? No. they exist because of decades of corrupt and ineffective government. Ineffective. Does that world apply to AMLO as well?  Manuel nails this issue right on the head. The murder rate in Mexico will reach an all-time high this year. That's a year that has been completely under AMLO's leadership. 

Anti-systemic forces: 

How many times have I said, " The US's number one trading partner is controlled by terrorist cartels"? Manuel's opinion, a person who has covered Mexico for some time now, seems to fit like a hand in a glove with my statement. His point is as clear as mine. Mexico is not controlled by AMLO or his government. He might as well be inside a castle in Mexico City, talking to the Queen of England. They both have the same control over the countries they rule.

Native Mexicans:

Now, here is a point Manuel makes that brings up an issue I've talked about in the past. 

In the 90s, who did AMLO work with? Zapatistas? If that was your guess, good for you! " Native Mexicans. What is that anyway? Are there transient Mexicans in Mexico? The word, "Native". What an agenda loaded buss word. Anyway, AMLO was not "home" when the events in Culiacan took place. Okay, not that unusual. The fact he initially came out and stated he concurred with the release of Chapo's kid made it look like, he was at least active in the issue. Here's the problem, once he realized just how bad this event was going to be, publicly, he changed his story. Okay, not that unusual for a politician, but at a time when a fragile Mexico doesn't need weak leadership, that was a damaging stance. Off playing with the " Natives", oh ya, "Natives" that have a history of violent revolutions in Mexico. He didn't "know", but, like Manuel states, nobody got fired? 

The Mexican Teachers Union: 

Wow. Manuel went for the jugular with this part of the story. I won't go into what I know about this group, the Teacher's Union, given I signed my "life letter" and unlike many politicians in DC, I know what it means to violate that letter. Trotskyite? You bet, and then some. What fact of revolution does AMLO understand all too well? How about the reality that most revolutions start on University grounds? Is AMLO covering his bets in case the country totally falls apart? I have an even more dire question. what if AMLO is secretly pushing Mexico into "Revolution". Zapatistas and a Trotsky based union, the most powerful union in Mexico. That sounds like planning to me, and I know a thing or two about planning. Oh, by the way; comparing the Teacher Universities to madrassas, that was brilliant! Well done Manuel! 

PEMEX: 

Although Manuel touches on the issues of healthcare in Mexico, or should I say the lact of healthcare, the section on PEMEX is right on the mark. Is PEMEX now controlled by an old "buddy" of AMLO? You bet. Is PEMEX in real trouble? More than most realize. Is PEMEX vital to the Mexican economy? Draining the profits off of PEMEX has been the life's blood of Mexico's economy for decades.  

If the PEMEX story was not enough, the point Manuel makes about Mexico's electric monopoly is dead-on; dead-on as in the guy is a murder. I wonder if this guy has had a lot of suicides around him? I know, this story is amazing! Let's keep pushing. 

Banks: 

AMLO doesn't mess much with the investment, macroeconomic side of Mexico, well, not much. I wonder why? When was the last time you read about a bank robbery in Mexico? Why is it the terrorist cartels drain funds off of everything they see in Mexico, but they don't mess with the banks? Are they off limits? Just who controls the BILLIONS of dollars the drug industry generates? What makes the banks so untouchable, not only the terrorist cartels won't touch them, AMLO won't as well? How can you be a true revolutionary leader if you take a knee to the banks? Did someone tell AMLO to leave the banking industry alone? Hey, what about that "rumor" AMLO is controlled by one of the more powerful cartels? What does a revolution need? Yep, it needs someone to push the people into revolt. Banks in Mexico. What an interesting topic! AMLO can't "touch" them, but he can make the nation go bankrupt, and that is what every good revolution needs, people, losing what little they have. 

I enjoyed this article by Manuel Suarez Mier, but I can assure you, AMLO did not. Asia Times has a sound reputation in the world economic arena and painting a picture of Mexico as a failing or failed nation does not go over well in Mexico City. A failing Mexico. AMLO should be upset, but...................is he? :)    

CHILE. IT MATTERS FAR MORE THAN KURDS AND NORTHERN SYRIA. 

Before I get started on the events in Chile, let me make two quick follow up comments on Mexico. Issues I forgot to touch on yesterday. Issues vital to predictive analysis on Mexico’s status. 1. As some have stated, the “ Monkey see, Monkey do”, syndrome is in full effect. As some have already speculated, the “other” terrorist cartels could easily adopt a stance of, “wow, that worked. That’s what. We do from here on out”. By the way; a rumor is floating around the terrorist executed a soldier in Culiacan and sent the video to the military. Remember what I said about morale. Okay. 2. Protest. Now, the people of Mexico are hardworking and have low expectations of their government. Those are two real ingredients that are counterproductive to large scale protest forming. That even holds true when “others / outsiders” attempt to make those protest a reality. Does that mean we wont observe protest in Mexico over the events in Culiacan? No. Typically protest come from the youth of universities. Although that target will be focused on by outsiders, the real threat of protest comes from those who are pushed into this insurgency war with little to no support. Yes, the military. Are they professionals? Yes. Are they frustrated? Yes. Does anyone remember the protest a few weeks ago by the federal police over the issue of not wanting to join the newly formed National Guard? I rest my point. So, there you have it. My quick update on Mexico. Now, let me drive on. Let me touch an issue the US cannot afford to ignore or worse, screw up.

Similarity:

Does anything here strike you as unusual? Do you see any similarity between the appearance in these two pictures and those taken in the US? Does the black backpack stand out? What am I implying? Let me take the stance of the President of Chile. Are “outside forces” supporting the events in Chile? According to the President, and me, yes. How often have I talked about the weaponization of masses? If you doubt nations don’t leverage large crowds, then you don’t understand how the world works. What is the number one compliant by Beijing? Yep, the US and it’s NGO’s are interfering in Hong Kong’s affairs. Is it true? Yes. Okay. If you accept that last statement, then here’s another for you, and it’s an old one. What is good for the Goose is good for the Gander”. If I lost you, well, I don’t know what to say other than, I’m sorry. 

Chile. Does it matter to the US? Yes. How important is Chile to the US? Real important. More important than the Kurds and Northern Syria? Silly question, but if you work inside the land I call, “ The Beltway Bandits”, then you may disagree. A few months ago, I wrote a rather scathing post on the failed policies of the US when it comes to Central and South America, policies that have been failing for over 100 years. Folks, that’s a long time, at least in US’s perspective. Here comes the ugly statement. With over 100yrs of failed policy for the region, can the US right the ship? What if the answer is no? What if the US can’t right the wrongs? Does someone else come along and offer a new future? Simply put; is the US in the process of losing it’s influence over the region? I’m not sure the people in the US are ready for that answer. 

What’s taking place:

Why are the people, the youth mainly and pay attention to that fact, of Chile upset? Is it income inequity? That would be a simple answer, but is that the real trigger? Hint, it is if someone or some organization weaponizes the issue. Side Note: Non-governmental Agencies / NGO’s. They are more than just a tool / weapon / of the US. Think, Soros! Now, can you have an insurrection without an actual issue being the center of gravity? No. Does the economic imbalance in Chile truly form this center of gravity? Yes, but only with help and the topic of help is where this story gets real ugly. 

Who is this Billionaire President? Who support does he have? DC? You bet. Why? Because he openly stood against Socialism and all it leads to. What’s been the US’s policy in Central and South America for over 100 years? “Anybody but Socialist / Communist”. Here comes the ugly part. What’s been the US’s track record of placing, yes placing, as in election influences, those loyal to the US in power? If you need an example, you need look no further than the very nation we are talking about. Once upon a time, a pro Socialist, Communist, Soviet, President was elected in Chile; then..........he died. Suicide! No, that was before the Clintons. Does the US have a history of picking really bad, anti Socialist, Communist / pro US “leaders”? Yes, and that reality is something the US must come to terms with. Not just lip service during an election cycle, but real policy reform. If the US is to have a chance of fixing it’s relationships in the region, then a word not often used in DC must apply. Balance! 

Okay, at this point, it sounds like the events taking place in Chile are based on bad policy and outside interference. Let me tell you, that’s a real dangerous combination, and just when you thought the issue of Chile had been framed, I’m going to toss in another factor. 

The death Spiral of Socialism: 

Is this Billionaire President of Chile so insensitive towards his own people that he would let them simply starve in the streets? Would he let babies die from hunger? Would he force the elderly to eat dog food? Oh wait, those are the accusations made in the US by one political party against the other. Anyway, is this guy just a ruthless, heartless rich guy, a guy in bed with corporate USA? Let me take another approach. What did this Billionaire inherit? What was the form of government before he came to power? By the way. Was he legally elected? Yep. Why did he Become popular enough to defeat a left leaning, socialist minded movement, well, besides the influence of the US on the election?  I’ll tell you why. Socialism has a genetic flaw. Once a political party starts promising all things to everyone, but especially those who don’t have much, the disaster, protest clock starts ticking. A very wise lady once said, “the problem with Socialism is you eventually run out of everyone else’s money”. Bingo. Can you say, Venezuela? Are the events in Chile also based upon the false promises of socialism and communism? Yes. 

Chile’s Addiction: 

Socialism and communism. Not only do you run out of other people’s money, you also create a society of addicts. Do people who have had nothing get addicted to the freebies of a socialist, communist government? How could they not? When the freebie well starts to run dry, what do the people standing in line do? See the pictures of the riots in Chile from your clue. Add a few photos from Venezuela if you like. Alright. What happens when the next person comes into power and is forced to say to the people, “sorry, the well is running dry”. By the way, you don’t have to have a dry well for the addicts to start protesting. Just the rumor of the well going dry sets the junkies into motion. Is this where the Billionaire of Chile friends himself? Yes. Did he and his supporters in the US do a poor job of preparing for such a reality? The real question is, did anyone even pay attention to what was coming? 2011. Riots in Chile. Why, everyone wanted to go to college for free! Sound familiar?  Addicts. When you set no expectations other than, “vote for me”, the results can only be disastrous. 

Future: 

Now that I’ve beat the dead horse, let’s talk about what is really important. The future, and it’s a future for not just Chile, but Venezuela and most likely others, to include Mexico. Let me start by making a simple statement. If the US doesn’t find it’s way in Central and South America, it will have to live with the Chinese Navy having ports in the region. It will have to live with Chinese ports and industry being the mainstay of the economic movements in the region. It will have to come to terms with a reality of China being the caretaker of Central and South America? Don’t agree with me? Then prove me wrong. Tell me what you know of the Belt and Road initiative? Explain to me how the slowing US industrial might is going to offset the funding China can place in the Region. Think I’m wrong? The BRIC. What nation represents the “B” in the BRIC definition? Look it up! 

Will the riots in Chile lead to the downfall of the Billionaire? Hard to tell. Will the US and it’s NGO’s do something stupid to prop him up? Don’t be surprised. The symptoms in Central and South America are there for everyone to see, everyone who bothers to look. The US cab become a true partner, a true doctor to counter these “symptoms” or a new Doctor will move in. Hint, that Doctor is already moving in. Tic Tock.....Tic Tock!! That clock I referred to is running! 

CULIACAN. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR MEXICO AND THE US? 

It's been two days since the Mexican government caved, once again, to the terrorist cartels. Was anyone surprised? Those that don't understand the leadership of Mexico may have been. As for the rest of us, Culiacan was the most extream example to date of the failed leadership of Mexico City. Should the military have slugged it out with the terrorist? No. Should someone have prevented the poorly planned operation from taking place? Yes. Okay, the fighting is over, for now. Now what? Everyone was quick to jump to the cable networks and give their regurgitation of what happened, but did anyone provide an analysis of what the event in Culiacan could lead to? The US mainstream media is about flashy/shiny objects that result in ratings and that means paid sponsors. Yep, they are about the $$$$$. If nobody wants to take the time to paint the picture of what Culiacan could lead to, then you can bet I will. So, let's go......I'll drive!

Let me start with the two most important issues and yes, they are in order of importance.

Morale: 

A little over a month ago, I think, I posted a story about the impact of AMLO's decessions on Mexico's military's morale. Back then, the issue was based upon small squads being overrun by the public and humiliated. The story goes, the so-called, "public" was upset with the actions of the units. Why did I say, " so-called"? Because people like me didn't believe the upset public pitch. As I stated in my post, these "so-called" members of the public were most likely paid by the terrorist cartels to pose as civilians. it was a great way to block the actions of the units while limiting how the military could react. Why did the units not resist? AMLO, that's why? If you want to know more about that story, go read my post on the Mexican military's morale; " The Mexican Military. What is taking place".   Okay, back on track. Just what is the overall morale of the rank and file of the Mexican military? I've not seen any official survey results, but I would love to. By the way, sometimes, things like that take place, but they are very....very clandestine, and with that, I've said enough! Let me make the logical assumption, the morale of the military is in the gutter. It's low from the highest-ranking member to the lowest. Some may put on a good act, but how in the world could any of them be happy with how they are being treated and supported? Are they loyal to the nation? Yes, at least a vast majority of them. Are they willing to sacrifice to make Mexico safe? Absolutely. Does leadership in Mexico City care? If some of them do, they are shoved aside by those who don't. I'll go back to the issue of vehicles to make my point. Pickup trucks. The military and the police have been left to fight 90 percent of the insurgency battles from pickup trucks.

Morale. It was bad before Culiacan. So, ask yourself; where is it now? Pushed into a battle inside the absolute stronghold of the terrorist cartels with no real plan and no true support. How do you think the unit membres felt when they were captured by the terrorist? How did military leadership react to the reality they had to let Chapo's Son, and others, go in order to save greater damage to the city? Just how tired are they of the current Tellatuby leadership in Mexico City? Morale. It's an issue and it's a very, very dangerous issue. Why? Let me drive on and I will explain towards the end.

Mexico's People:

Do the people of Mexico truly believe their government is going to make their lives better? Do they feel their government keeps them safe, you know, the basic premise of governance? Do the people truly believe Mexico City cares about the rest of the nation? Is Culiacan just another chapter in the neverending story of failed leadership? If the answer to these questions is, "yes", then ladies and gentlemen, we have a recipe for a complete disaster in Mexico. Can Mexico turn into Venezuela or now, Chile? Can the US's number one trade partner go the way of Albania? Yep, I've addressed this issue as well, and I've done so in the past two or three months.

Formula:

 
What's this formula for a nation nearing collapsed status? Most will tell you, the major factor is that  nation's economy. Is Mexico's economy nearing a danger zone? Take a look at the reviews of AMLO's 2020 budget outline and you may have your answer. Pay even closer attention to PEMEX's forecast. AMLO states it's great, but don't pay attention to AMLO's dreams. Read what the oil market forecasters have to say. Now, remember, PEMEX is the cash cow for everything the Mexican government invents. Here is the reality. The Mexican economy is not as far down the road to ruin as the morale of both it's military and public, but it will catch back up quickly the way AMLO is going.

Short Answer:

Leadership without the support of the public is forced to use its military to keep order. Leadership that loses the support of the military and the public, well, that's leadership standing at the edge of the cliff with everyone behind them pushing. 

The Future: 


Can anyone truly predict the future of a nation in crisis? Let me give you a hint. As I was preparing to deploy troops to Albania, the analysis was, that nation was in trouble but would survive until the US and others arrived and restored stability. Well, the "experts" were wrong.......dead wrong! Albania's government and society fell like a stone off a tall bridge and by the time the US military began to set up, the place was a completely collapsed nation-state, and I mean, completely!

Does the crisis that is now Culiacan indicate the pending collapse of Mexico? I and none of those like me can make that prediction. Here is the realty the people in the US, especially along the border with Mexico, must realize. The US government is not going to paint a dire picture of its number one trade partner, and that is really not going to happen in a presidential election cycle. Is there a valid IC analysis of such a threat? If there is, and I would bet there are some rather serious conversations taking place over Mexico, you can bet it will not reach the White House. But then again, if it did, rest assured the MSM would find a way to make it Trump's fault. Look. The reality is right in front of everyone to see. Mexico is heading in the wrong direction and everyone, everyone who will admit it, knows that statement to be true. Culiacan was the worst example yet, but it is undeniable. The people of Mexico are witnessing a city of over 800K, I thought it was 700, but it seems it's now 800, be capitulated to the terrorist cartels. At the same time, the rank and file of the military wonder what the future holds? The senior leadership has to be doubting the vision of Mexico City, and they are living with this doubt as they try to keep the morale of the ranks from collapsing. Did Culiacan create a window into the future of Mexico? No one knows for certain, but no one ever knows anything for certain. People like me, we work off of facts, trends, and historical data. Put these three topics together for Mexico and I would strongly recommend someone in DC / the Pentagon /  have a "plan" ready for a very bad day in Mexico. A day even worse than two days ago.  A plan. Yep, I addressed that issue as well. Just go search my blog site with the words, "Mexico and Buffer Zone" .  AMLO is Nero and Mexico is Rome. The US's number one trade partner is controlled by terrorist drug cartels. Someone tell me how the Kurds and Northern Syria is worthy of anyone's attention in DC. There ya go. My follow up the event in Culiacan. See if you find anyone else that breaks it down.

CULIACAN. WHAT HAPPENED, THAT MATTERS? 

What took place in the capital of the Sinaloa region of Mexico yesterday? If you woke up this morning are read the news on BBC and even CNN, surprisingly enough, you saw a story about a sustained fight between a terrorist cartel and the Mexican authorities. So, what was the headline of the event? AMLO ordered the release of a cartel boss, a request made to him by his Defense Minister, to hear AMLO tell the story that is. Is that the story? No. The son of El Chapo, a war criminal in my book, was released, is that the story? No. By the way, why do I call El Chapo a war criminal, because Mexico has been fighting an insurgency war with the terrorist cartels for decades, that's why. I do agree, letting this kid lose is a terrible event for Mexico, but again, that's not the real issue. Okay, let me get down to the real issue and it's one the US better, finally, start paying attention to. 

The fight: 

What took place that led to the events in Culiacan? Was it an operation to snatch the kid? AMLO, as he runs for cover, now states it was the US's fault. The US wanted him and that is why Mexican units went into the Vampire's lair, Sinaloa. One thing is for sure, if this is the truth, the mainstream media in the US will put this event on Trump's shoulders. Yep, "It's Trump's fault". Oh ya, does anyone think for a minute the Mexican Military would design a mission to enter Culiacan with what appeared to be a lightly equipped, Company size unit? This is where I through the BS flag on the theory of "going after him". Now, did someone try to be a hero? Did some new organization attempt to show how relevant they have become? Be thinking Mexican National Gaurd at this point. If so, could that have gone wrong? Does ATF and Waco Texas ring a bell? Somebody, organization attempting to grandstand? maybe, but let me push past this question as I drive towards what really matters. 

Several of the videos show the Mexican government units moving into the area. Now, when these videos where taken is a very important question. The most popular video shows what looks like a company-size unit, lightly supported, as in armored vehicles and aviation support, moving in a simi-low risk manner. Members not conducting bounding overwatch and not moving with weapons at the ready, that is an indication to me this "unit" was not under direct threat. It also appears the members have on different uniforms and again, that indicates this was not an organic unit event. Now, as important as this may end up being, for post operations analysis, it's not nearly as disturbing as what actually took place. 

The Surrender:            https://youtu.be/dhgxZl6qlT4        

Watch this clip. To hear the story, this video shows terrorist cartel members shaking hands with members of the Mexican units. Now, I don't want to believe this. As one who has been predicting Mexico's slide into crisis, by the way, that is what this event is, I hope what we are seeing here are members of the Mexican units, military and or police, who had been responding to the event and they were simply in civilian clothes. I want to believe that is true, but let me tell you why I think the accusation of cartel members and Mexican unit's shaking hands may be true. Look at the non-standardization of weapons. Yes, some Mexican units don't have standardized equipment, but let me finish. Look at the gear. Absolutely no standardization. Look at the radios. Look at the age and physical fitness of the terrorist. It pains me to say this, but it appears the accusation of the two groups' meeting is true. 

I started this section with the word, "Surrender". Is that what this video shows? the "surrender" of Mexican units to terrorist cartel members? Let me explain something here at a tactical level. If you are involved in armed, hostile operation, one with weapons being fired by all members, and one side is suddenly ordered to stop fighting, that only has one perception; "Surrender"! If the order was given to stop fighting the terrorist cartel members, then the perception of the terrorist and most of the Mexican public was and is, the Mexican government "surrendered". 

Terms:

What were the "terms" of the ceasefire; yes, let's call it a ceasefire for the sake of argument. The kid and "others" are allowed to go free and in exchange, the enemy, the terrorist cartel members, will agree to stop killing people and terrorizing the city of Culiacan. That's it. That's the nuts and bolts of what took place right? Wrong! Who left? Did the terrorist cartel members leave Culiacan? Where did the kid and "others" go? Did the Mexican units pull back out of the city?  Where is that part of this story? If "terms" were agreed upon, what took place as the ceasefire took hold? One thing is absolute. The government's / AMLO / version of this event will not come close to matching the rumors and stories that will come out of this event. You have heard me use the word embolden in the past. Just how "embolden" do you think the terrorist cartels, all of them, will become after this showdown? The Mexican government came to "terms" in order to reach a ceasefire with a terrorist cartel and in doing so, gave up control of a city of over 700k people. Think about that for a minute. 

How did it happen:

How is it Mexican military and police units were fought to a standstill in Culican? I've addressed the issue of the inadequate size and configuration of the force responding, but what else led to this crisis for Mexico? Has something changed for the terrorist cartels? Yes, the answer is a resounding yes! Only a few days ago, I posted a story on the issue of the 14 slaughtered  Mexican Police Officers. If you read my thoughts, then you know what I believe, changed. Remember the word, "emboldened"?  Do you remember my post about the morale in the Mexican military and how AMLO was ordering units to not protect themselves when civilians, so-called civilians, attacked them? Don't remember? Search my blog and you will find what I am referring to. 

The terrorist cartels are better armed and thus more capable than at any time in the past. The Telltuby government of AMLO has allowed these terrorists to gain a level of confidence they have never had before. But, that's not the most dangerous issue.  As I have said in the past few months, tactics have changed. The ambush where the 14 Officers where butchered was not a typical event. Not only have the weapons changed, not only has emboldenedness increased, but tactics have also changed and that is the most dangerous change of all. 

Guerrilla Warfare:

What conclusion did the on-scene Commander come to in Culican? Not only could he not take the city back from the terrorist cartel members, he could not hold the ground he was on. In military terms, he found himself in an unstainable position. Could he have held his ground long enough to wait for support? That depends on where his forces were, what capabilities they held organically and what "support" he could anticipate. By the time he gave his report back to his chain of command, the situation was out of control on just about every media outlet in Mexico. He was most likely asked, "what are your recommendations"? That would have been when he asked what was required of him? Was he to neutralize the violence taking place over the entire city? If so, then he would have requested a tremendous increase in manpower as well as other assets, aviation to start. What the Secretary of Defense realized was the stark reality of a deep fear in the Mexican government. They were going to attempt to take, by force, the city of Culican; the capital of a region in Mexico the government was paid or simply decided to ignore. That was a bridge too far! That was a task the government would ignore at all costs. It was most likely the on-scene Commander who informed his leadership of the "terms", terms that were probably accepted immediately. Once the government agreed to the "terms" of the ceasefire, it should have been the Commander who set the details of these "terms". Side Note: Given the level of corruption in the Mexican government, the Terrorist cartel may have had direct communications with the right authorities to make the "terms" acceptable. This is a reality the Mexican Military understands and it's a reality that may change the course of Mexico's future.   

Why did I mention Guerrilla Warfare? Let me go back to the issue of changes in tactics. We know the city of Culican is a stronghold of this particular terrorist cartel. Not only is it a stronghold, it's has a government that is controlled by the same cartel. Remember, you don't have to control everyone, just key individuals. It's a Columbian way of drug business. Once this event was underway and the word was out a key leader was in custody, but still, in the city, the decision was quickly made to make the operation too painful for the Mexican government to accept. but again, why the term, Guerrilla Warfare? I will tell you why. Historically, yes, I know not all the time, most terrorist cartels/cells/ respond by firing from vehicles or standing near the vehicles. What happens when they not only own some small village or town but a city of over 700K? What capabilities, options does the federal government have when the fighting is going to be door to door, in a city that goes on for miles? Was a lesson learned by the terrorist cartels in Culicun?  More than one my friends, more than one. Stop standing out in the middle of the street. Dismount the vehicles and fight from inside the surrounding buildings. make the event as violent as possible and hold on until the government panics. Have the terrorist cartels transitioned to Guerrilla Warfare? In reality, they have been doing so for the past several years. Is Culican an example of what the future may hold? This event was unique in a very important aspect. The city was in the heart of Vampire land. Culican is Dracula's lair. It will be hard to replicate without the density of forces this terrorist cartel organically held in Culican. Having said that, the new danger is absolute. Terrorists now understand the power of defending rather than assaulting. The standard ratio for military operations is estimated at 4 to 1. It takes 4 assaulting unit members to take out 1 defender. In reality, that number is ofter 10 or 15 to 1. What makes this discussion possible? the word, "Embolden". 

Who is Watching: 

This was and is a critical moment in time for Mexico. It will be nearly impossible for AMLO to stand up this coming Monday and give his typical morning, telltuby happy...happy speech to the press, a press that is going to keep asking questions now. " Mr. President. Who is in control of Culican? Do you believe the region belongs to the cartel? Are you hearing from the people of Culiacan? Do they feel abandon"? Yes, it's going to be hard for AMLO to change the attention span of the public and the press. As bad as that seems, a more dangerous issue now exists for the US. The whole world witnessed what took place. It may have been in Mexico, but it's in the US's "Backyard". Just how much trouble is Mexico in? It was pushed out of a city of over 700k Mexican citizens, not just some small little village in Michoacan. 

Here is something to ponder. What is it China accuses the US of? Interfering in the events of Hong Kong. 

What does Tehran wish more than anything? See the US in a crisis at home, that's what. 

Does Hezbollah have ties to the terrorist cartels? Yes and have so for years. 

Is Hezbollah desperate to find additional funds? Yes.

Would Beijing be willing to backdoor support a crisis in Mexico? Have you ever read China's concept of "Total, Unrestricted Warfare"? 

If you think none of this will have anything to do with the events in Culiacan, then go back to watching Dancing with the Stars and just try to hope bad times go away. 

The people of Mexico woke up to a new reality today. The Mexican government is led by a man who will surrender a city of over 700k people and do so as he states it's not his fault and he did it for the good of the people. 

Culiacan. It seems to have become Mexico's version of Fallujah Iraq and yesterday, Muqtada al-Sadr was released.