RAND CORPORATION REVIEW OF THE SELF-LICKING ICE-CREAM CONE.

            All right. My disclaimer upfront. RAND Corp. Have I read their “works for long? Try a few decades. Have I ever seen them come to the conclusion the US doesn’t need to spend huge  sums  of money and do so quickly? Nope. I mean, if you have followed them like I have, when was the last time you heard them say, “ In conclusion, the US need not worry for at least five to ten years and can reallocate defense spending to some other areas of society in the meantime”. Nope…..never! There’s always a pending crisis that must be averted by getting out the checkbook. Does RAND have a direct relationship with the West’s / US / Military Industrial Complex? Silly question, so let’s move on.

The latest report:

            Several sources addressed the latest RAND report  on the potential outcome of a war between the US and a combined China, Russian event and how the US would be beaten and beaten badly. I must confess, I’ve not read this latest report, but the comments I’ve have found lead me to believe it’s the same old song and dance. Spend and spend a lot and spend it quickly. Sidenote. Take a look sometime on who goes to work at RAND, or where ex-RAND members go. Enough said. Okay, so the scenario goes something like this. The Russians make a move on Ukraine and the Chinese make a move on Taiwan. It’s seems they both strike first and they both do so at nearly the same time. Now again, I’ve not read the report, yet, but I will tell you that is a huge “assumption” to have as a Starting point. It also appears the authors indicate just how bad the initial strikes are to the US’s ability to respond. Crippling seems to be the message. Alright, that’s where I toss the first BS flag.

Preparation for conflict:

            If you want to sell the idea of spending more money on more military hardware, then you have to paint a picture of threat and that threat has to be superior typically in strength or capability or both. For a report to indicate the US military would be caught unprepared for actions by the Chinese and Russians at the same time it would have to anticipate a complete failure on all intelligence operations on a global scale, to include US Allies. The discussion of losing US airbases before aircraft could be launched or moved can only be given a level of believability based upon a complete, “cold start” operation by both nations. Can the Russians and the Chinese coordinate a first Strike / Cold Start operation without enough indicators to warrant a higher alert status by Western forces? Someone better be able to show me that at the training and exercise level before I believe it. Look, again, I have not read this latest report, but the idea of losing such a significant percentage of combat capability from the very beginning seems to be self-serving, especially in the “you need to spend more money” business. It’s my opinion, the indicators of such a Force generation cannot be hidden from modern-day intelligence. Preparation actions are some of the primary areas watched 24/7/365 by the IC and I find it impossible to believe such a combined Russian/ Chinese event could take place with the US sitting on it’s hands. Yes…I  know… Pearl Harbor!

Allies who don’t fight:

            Not only does this report seem to count on US forces being caught totally off-guard, it also seems to make the assumption key NATO nations will decide not to get involved. Wow…..there’s an inserted scenario advantage for ya. If you need your report to come to the conclusion you are looking for, then you need to have key segments that support your hypothesis. When I read someone commenting about this segment of the report, I thought to myself, “ yep, RAND and the Self-Licking Ice-cream Cone”. Germany and France just take a knee and agree to whatever Moscow tells them. Okay, it might happen, but my bet is RAND may need to think that way to get the report to the conclusion they are paid to find, but I would also bet you that assumption is not made in Moscow. Likewise, Japan and the rest of the Pacific decides to watch the Dragon swallow Taiwan and simply look the other way. Well…you know…. You need key assumptions to get to where you want to go. The US and its Allies are caught totally off-guard and key Allies decide not to fight. Now let’s see… the goal here is to paint a picture of the US losing a conflict. Well, those are two great assumptions that could lead one to that conclusion. I really do need to read this report. Let’s take one last issue and see if we can toss cold water on this hot topic.

The Cost:

            The US and it’s Allies are caught totally off guard and are unable to defend key sites because of a lack of air defense assets, hint…that is what this report is all about. To make matters worse, Allies won’t fight. Got it. That sounds really grim and if I was a clueless member of congress I might be briefed by a few retired Generals and so called, “Experts” from the academic world and begin to panic. But you see, I’m not a clueless member of Congress and I’m not looking for that multi BILLION dollar plant to be built or expanded in my district and…..I’m not a President who is already more than willing to spend more money on the military for the sake of saying I’m doing so. Let me add a factor here that may have not made it into the report, but I will read it and find out.

            You are sitting at home. It’s 7pm EST and as you watch your favorite cable news network babble on about current political events in the US, a “ Special Report” comes in stating it appears a large scale attack is taking place against US forces in both the Pacific and Europe. Within a few hours, all the reports seem to be true and the internet also seems to be completely compromised as part of this attack. Where in the world do you think the world economy is the next morning? After a few dozen Talking Heads run to the major networks to give their opinion on what is taking place and what might be yet to come, who is going to work? Who is letting their kids go to school? Does Wall Street open? No. Do other world markets open? No. Are the stores in the US overrun with panic driven zombies? Yep. Are the major networks in full scale emotional meltdown? Yes. Is it Trump’s fault? Yep. So, that’s it? That’s the status of the world the Russians and the Chinese are looking for and all for the sake of regaining Taiwan and the Ukraine? Both China and the Russian devise a plan, work out details too complex to even mention here and all of this happens without the Intelligence Community knowing and all with the outcome of a collapsed world economy? Just how much funding did RAND receive to develop this plan? Does the US need a greater air defense network? Yes. Has the US been so focused on the “little wars / Terrorism/ that it’s spent nearly the last 20 years building a force that is not a true battlefield network? Yes. Does that mean the Chinese and the Russians are going to risk everything they have to take back two small slices of land? If the folks at RAND need to help convince US political so called leaders the nation needs to refocus, then I guess this report fits the last three or four that have come out.  I will go read this Self-licking Ice Cream Cone from RAND, if I can, but someone needs to prove to me the Russians and the Chinese are willing to risk everything over two previous territories. Let the Russians and the Chinese believe their national survival is at stake and some of this may come true, but someone better have some really hard “facts” to convince me, a guy who watched this level of interaction on a daily bases, the Chinese and the Russian could ever work hand in hand, right down to the war plan level. Who does Moscow fear more? The US or the Dragon? Who does the Dragon fear? A group of people on a small Island that may show 1.5 billion people a better way of life? Now………..that is a real problem, but not a problem the Russians are willing to help the Dragon solve.

DRUG CARTELS AND TRUE DEFINITION OF “TERRORISM”. DOES IT FIT? 

            A good friend of mine is being asked by a few US political leaders to help draft language that would identify certain drug cartels as FTOs ( Foreign Terrorist Organizations). He and I have a “history” of working the issue of drug cartels and I am here to tell you, he knows what he’s talking about. Having said that, let’s take a few minutes and see if a nexus between the word “Terrorism” and the drug cartels truly does exist.

What is a Terrorist?

            Okay, first off, a lot of people have made great a deal of money and fame trying to frame the meaning of “Terrorism”. “One person’s, being politically correct here, Terrorist is another person’s freedom fighter”. Now, outside the US that stance has been hard to defeat, just ask Hamas or Hezbollah. Most typically describe terrorist groups or individuals as motivated by political or religious issues. Almost all the “experts” will tell you a terrorist or terrorist movement primarily targets unsuspecting civilians. Most will say monetary profit is not a primary goal of a terrorist group or individual, although receiving funding for their actions often leads to a hierarchy of leadership inside the group. Again, look at the leadership of Hamas or Hezbollah. So, in 2019, it seems the acceptable and recognized definition of “Terrorism” is still wrapped around political, religious and social issues. That begs the question. Can a Terrorist or terrorist movement be based upon nothing more than profit? Again, it’s 2019 and it could very well be time for a review of what truly terrorizes a society.

Drug Cartels:

            Did the Bootleggers of the 20s resemble the modern-day Drug Cartels, because I’ve heard that argument over and over again and it usually comes from those who want to legalize certain drugs. Is it just a matter of legalization and the whole issue goes away? That’s so myopic, I won’t waste my time on arguing that stance. As for the Bootlegger comparison, it’s simple. It’s about proportionality. In the 20s, crime took place everyday in every major US city, crime that was based on booze, who got to move it and sell it. Sound familiar? So is that it? Are we just talking about the Bootleggers of the 21^st Century? No. Here is the reality the “just legalize it” side doesn’t want to face. To the Bootleggers of the 20s, it was all about making money by selling and moving alcohol. That was it. Yes, they dabbled in other smaller criminal activities that eventually spread into illegal drugs, but for the most part, the Bootleggers and the criminal organizations that sprung up with the era of prohibition limited themselves to making money on a local scale and their scale of violence was minuscule compared to what is taking place today. Still don’t believe me there is no comparison? Okay, show me a time in the US 20’s where most major highways were controlled, openly controlled by Bootleggers? Show me an example of entire towns or being rounded up to work in a still somewhere. Forget it. There is no true comparison. Anyone that makes that statement is hiding from reality. The violence and the ability to carry out mass violence makes the modern-day drug cartels unique.

So What?

            So what? The US and other parts of the world have a drug usage problem? Why should that lead to drug cartels being labeled as “Terrorist”? I mean, bombs are not going off in Chicago or New York because someone is upset over the conviction of one of the biggest Drug Lords in history? Why not? If these groups were really “Terrorist” wouldn’t they be threatening the US public and government? Wouldn’t they be bombing commercial aircraft? They sure don’t seem to be reacting like typical Terrorist, so why would someone in DC want to place them in this category? Why should the American people demand the drug cartels wear a title that changes the rules of the game for going after them? Here is the shocker and the answer is right in front of us.

Crime:

            Parts of Chicago are nearly as dangerous as Northern Syria. Why? Drugs? Yep. In the course of 30 days, twenty-five people are killed in open shootouts in the streets over drugs, sometimes that just in one weekend. Is that a Terrorist act? If that was a bus bombing or a mass shooting at a Basketball game with the gunmen screaming “Allahu Ak Bar”, would the media or the public treat it the same way? In one year, how many crimes / murders / are directly linked to “drugs” in the US? I once say a figure that stated 80 percent…let that sink in for a minute. Is the manner of death relevant to the issue? If we lose 20 in good old fashion terrorist attack, is that more impactful than a decades old drug war? When the dead are pilled up in Syria from a terrorist attack, it’s not near as dramatic as when it takes place here right? But…what is the fear…….what is the fear that makes the US spends BILLIONS….even TRILLIONS of dollars? You bet…..it’s the fear those events made come here! So there you have it. If the “ War on Terrorism” is based on keeping it from taking place on the streets of Pleasantville USA, then why does the US accept the failed “War on Drugs”? Is there another avenue to help change a future that some of us know is coming?

 The Future:      

            “It’s Mexico….It’s always been like that”.  Those that follow my post, you know how often I have addressed this ignorant viewpoint. What event or series of events makes the US population wakeup to the dangers of the Drug Cartels? Do they get mad over the conviction last week and bomb a public event? Is that what it would take? Would they consider them Terrorist then? These groups control a 60 BILLION dollar industry. At what point to they decide to up their game and why oh why should we wait until that fateful day takes place? Let me give you an example of the kind of day the US doesn’t want to reach.  Several years ago, I was talking with a few SEDENA “Officials” about their operations along the US/ Mexican border. Two of them had the moral integrity to admit they only control the area while they are physically there. That same day, I sat and listened to multiple US Ranchers testify they know longer felt safe on their own land. Several even talked of how they would not travel onto large sections of their property near the border because of the constant threats from the drug dealers? Is that not being “terrorized”? Is that not a form of Terrorism? That same day, I sat with a Rancher who had over twenty hired guns that simply helped him stay safe on his own land. That was probably 2009, not 1869! I listen to young people talk about what clubs you didn’t go into in cities like Del Rio Texas because the drug gangs ran those clubs. Is that not being terrorized on you own land, in your own town?

So why hasn’t it happened?

            Why haven’t the drug cartels actually taken on the tactics of the more known terrorist organizations? Here’s the bad news……………..they have. I remember when the first video taped beheading started in the Middle East. I remember how outraged the West was. As soon as that took place, a few of us made a prediction………..it would begin in Mexico on a grand scale. Now, in 2019, it’s a daily occurrence and not just in one city or another, but all over the country. What is it the US government would like to do? Wait until that level of narco violence is a daily event in the US? Look, the short answer is this. The drug cartels are already “Terrorist”, just ask any person trying to walk the streets of Juarez, or any other major city in Mexico. Why hasn’t the level of violence elevated to the point it makes the nightly news in the US? Well, do you watch the news from Chicago? What do you think is the catalyst behind that cities image being destroyed?

We’ve tried this before:

            Before I hear it again, let me address another standard response from those who are walking through life blind. “We tried the War on Drugs and it didn’t work. We tried intervention in Central America to prevent the flow of illegal drugs and all we did was back ruthless Dictators”. If I was in a classroom, that would be the moment in time I would toss an eraser at anyone spouting out that BS. What the US was  doing in that region was a pathetic attempt to control the spread of Soviet influence in the US’s “backyard”. Yes, the DEA went in there to make an attempt to answer the drug issue, but the effort was just that, an attempt. Clandestine operations to “deal” with the drug world did work, the problem was, it was never a complete national strategy. It was what it was………a half-ass attempt to deal with a complex issue and it failed.  Here is the real bad news. Times have changed. The days of watching bad things happen in Mexico and then believing they wont take place in the US are coming to and end. Label these groups what they are……. A Clear and Present Danger to the United States. Does this sound like a corny support to a fairly decent movie………… a movie that painted the picture of an out of control US government…. a government that was actually made to look like the bad guys?  Call it what you want, but I will tell you this. The day the flow of drugs, human trafficking, theft of oil and I could go on and on, stops or it  truly threatens the drug cartels, then the US better be ready for a very different optic on the nightly news. Oh…..by the way…………… these so called modern day versions of Bootleggers have documented interaction with real terrorist organizations…..Hezbollah! Don’t believe it? That’s okay, but the next time you want to spend a few days just seeing the great countryside of the US, I would encourage you to take a drive along the Texas, Mexico border. Stop in a few small towns and ask the people there if the drug cartels influence their lives? FTO status…………it must take place and it must take place soon! If this movement in DC keeps going, you can bet I will keep talking about it.

IMRAN KHAN. FROM CRICKET GAMES TO NUCLEAR GAMES

I’ve not come off this story yet and for good reason. Mr. Cricket had an understanding of the situation between India and Pakistan before he decided to run for office. He most likely understood the inability to control the ISI in Pakistan and like most Pakistani politicians, he most likely thought he could be the one that reels them in. Yes, being the leader of a destabilized nation, one with nuclear weapons, is much more difficult than playing Cricket.

Warnings:

            Was Imran Khan right to issue a public warning to India? To me, here is the more important question, was he told to? Were the words he spoke his, or someone else’s? The reality is, it was most likely a combination of both. Why would Pakistan create a new crisis when things were getting better between the two nations? That part probably came from Khan. The rest of the rather threatening language came from those who he must deal with inside his own government. Is India smart enough to see the message inside the message? Yes. Does that make them more at ease with the situation? No. Does it even make thins possibly worse? Yes. Khan is learning a timeless lesion on leadership. One denies the actions of their subordinates, or one admits they cannot control them. What interpretation does the world think India will believe? Is the Cricket player out of his, “league”😊 being the leader of Pakistan? Did he authorize or have knowledge of the event or did it take place without his consent? Does anyone think the difference really matters to India? Does India believe Mr. Cricket can control the ISI? No. Does India believe Mr. Cricket can control the Red Mosque movement? No. Does any of this indicate India is willing to let this event go unanswered? Not a chance. Are “backdoor” communications taking place to mitigate the event? They always do. What options does Khan really have?

Crackdown:

Is it possible to reduce the level of violence in the region where this event took place? Well, that depends on who is willing to help Khan do so. Will the ISI? Good luck. Will the Red Mosque radicals? Silly question. How about the Pakistani military?  Where does their loyalty rest? Is Khan the guy they feel can turn the corner for Pakistan, or should the military step in and once again remove yet another incompetent leader? What does it take to cool the growing anger inside India? Mr. Cricket better figure this one out and he better do so quickly. This is not a game played in nice white uniforms. He better learn to get dirty and he better learn quick. Yes, the tension between Pakistan and India is worth worrying about and yes, it could get much worse. Here is the last lesson for the Cricket Champion. In the world of international affairs, there are no honest judges or officials. What’s in it for them………….that is the baseline of the help or tension he is receiving. Welcome to reality 101 Mr. Khan. How many years do you have left in your term😊?

INDIA AND PAKISTAN. TAPPING ON SHATTERED GLASS.

            Yet another “skirmish” in the Kashmir region. Is that worthy of the BBC making it the headline, at least for a few hours? Doesn’t that happen a couple of times a year? Isn’t this much like the events that take place elsewhere in the world? Really….what’s the big deal? CNN and FOX didn’t cover this latest attack and we all know what a professional group of journalists they are. Sputnik news covered the story, all be it a few pages deep. In the end, was this latest event any different? Was this truly worthy of the BBC’s attention?

History:

            In the past, I’ve addressed the dangers of this ongoing issue between Pakistan and India. I spoke of the time, shortly after 9-11, we were nearly scared out of our shorts India and Pakistan where going to go at it.  If you are reading this and you didn’t realize both nations have nuclear weapons, then you need to pay better attention to the world you are living in. Yes, there is deep history of bad blood between the two nations and the flash point has always been the Kashmir region. Both nations are being courted by the Dragon and “others”, and the struggle for leverage in the region is obvious to just about everyone, but the more the Chinese “court” Pakistan, the more nervous the government of India becomes. Anyone who makes decisions based upon, “ Oh…that happens all the time”, are the same people who condemn others to go cleanup their mistakes. Who am I referring to here? You should be able to guess. It’s typically those who no little about the real underlying issues of an event, or those who are simply too lazy to put in the effort required. Does the US’s intelligence community understand if this event is more dangerous than the ones in the past? Most likely. Do the Chinese and the Russians? Most likely. Why is the Western Press coverage of this latest round of clashes not making a splash on the news? It seems, nobody wants it to. Does that mean it will just fade away as the stories of Venezuela, Syria and the “Wall” continue to be the flavor of the day?  Ask the people of India? Read the Indian news. Just how upset this time is the government of  1.2. BILLION people?

Inside Pakistan:

            Where did this latest round of conflict take place? Take a look at Pakistani news and see how they refer to the region.  “India Occupied Kashmir”. That is the term of reference you will typically find. In this case, the Indian story is the attack came from Jaish-e-Mohammad, a group India alleges is supported by the Pakistani government. A group that attacked an Indian “Paramilitary” unit. Notice…..a “Group”….. and a “ Paramilitary Group”….you know……Proxy fighters. What do proxy fighters, mostly very young, unemployed young men or Indian “little Green Men”, like to do? Yep….fight…………and if one of these fights gets out of control, will it get the attention of the governments or organizations that back them? You bet it will. So is  that what took place here? Did two “Proxy” fighting groups take it too far? Was this an event that was not supposed to happen on the scale that it did? Let me answer that with a viewpoint some of you may not want to hear. No. That’s not what took place. It’s worse than that…….way worse.

Pakistan’s struggle:

            Have you heard of the struggles in Pakistan with the Red Mosque? Have you paid attention to the creeping, radical Islamic movement in Pakistan? It’s not new news, but if you’ve not been paying attention, then you are going to be very worried about what I am about to tell you, or at least you should be. If the radical Islamic front in Pakistan wanted to bring down the government, would it be willing to force that same government into a war with India? Absolutely. Could this radical movement attempt to make this war take place by prodding the one true hotspot between the two nations? Silly question.  Is that what is going on here? Does the intelligence communities of the West, China and Russia realize this? You bet they do. Did the phones ring soon after the 40 “Paramilitaries” were killed? Was the message, “don’t let this get out of hand”? Here’s even a worse way to look at this issue. Does anyone think for a second the US, Russia and China came to a quick agreement on how this latest event should be handled? The phones may have rang, but in what order and with what feedback?  Yes, there are several other so called “hotspots” in the world, but name me the one where a destabilized, nuclear nation is being prodded to start a conflict with a nation of over a BILLION people….a nation with nuclear weapons. The day to day working Joe in India will read about this latest attack, the one after the one that killed 40 Indian citizens, and the pressure to “ Do something” will mount. Here is the problem, and it’s a big one. “ Doing Something” is exactly what the radicals inside Pakistan want. Pay attention to Venezuela and Syria if you wish, but be prepared to see a headline that is far more terrifying than anything those two nations can produce. This issue of India and Pakistan is similar to tapping on fractured glass right now. Someone better find a way to keep that glass from shattering

THE ISRAELI / ARAB “BROMANCE”. IS THIS SOMETHING REAL OR NEW?

            Time to hit the tennis ball back over the net. Time to go from one side of the court, South and Central America and cover the other side, the Middle East. Time to take a look at the Bromance that might….might I say….be developing between Israel and a few of the key Middle Eastern nations.

Old News:      

             Is it “old news” Israel is talking to Arab nations? Have they not had a relationship with Jordan and Egypt for decades now? Have they not, quietly, spoke with Saudi and several other Gulf State nations? Yes. So, what’s changed? Openness? Is that the big change? Sitting next to each other at meetings like the one in Poland this week? Is that a “change”? You bet it is and why? You should know why. Iran…..That’s why.

Hard Facts:

            Let’s go back over a few realities I’ve spoke of in the past. Is there a plan or desire for the Israeli flag to fly over the capital of Saudi? No. Is there a plan for the Israeli flag to fly over the capital of any of the Gulf Nations? No. Is there a plan for the Israeli flag to fly over Tehran? No. What about the Mullahs? What about their dreams and desires? World domination of the Muslim faith? Is that their desire? Yes. Is it the desire or dream of the Iranian people? No. Clean water and jobs, that’s the desire of most of the people in Iran. The hard fact is, Israel has a common enemy with most of the Middle Eastern nations. The Mullahs…..not the people of Iran…but the insane, fanatics who have just celebrated terrorizing the Iranian people for over 40 years. That is the bond, be it a shaky one, between Israel and the Arab nations.  

The Big Picture:

            Who arranged the photo op in Warsaw? You bet, Team Donald did. Is it part of the bigger picture? Is it part of the pending “Peace Deal” for Israel and the Palestinian people. Yep. Do you think the Israelis know that, especially Netanyahu? Yep. Do the Arab leaders know this? Yep. Is the underlying message, “we have to solve one problem in order to solve the other”? Yep. Will it work? Now, there’s the BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. The Mullahs are the puppets, unwilling as they may be, of the Tsar. Does the Tsar wish to see the fanatics in Tehran removed from power? Easy answer. What’s in it for him? If Putin is to let the Mullahs sleep with the fishes, then what’s in it for him. Same situation I spoke of just yesterday on the topic of Venezuela.

You must give to get:  

            Does Netanyahu get a boost from this seating arrangement? It’s election time in Israel, so what do you think?  Does he realize he’s “getting” before he must “give”? yes. Does he realize, he better come through on the “giving” side of the “deal”? You bet he does. Can he afford to pound Hezbollah in Lebanon prior to Team Trump’s “Deal” being pushed? No. Will the Arab nations stand with Israel in a war that would destroy most of Lebanon again? No. Would this Bromance fall apart? Yes. Do the Mullahs in Tehran realize this? Yes. Is this why there has been all the talk about Iran “helping” Lebanon….code for arming Hezbollah even further? Yes. Can the Tsar prevent the Mullahs from disrupting Team Trumps “deal”. Again, what’s in it for the Tsar?

            The idea of the Israeli, Arab, “Bromance”, is on shaky ground and its ground that is easily moved by the actions of Iran. Team Trump’s “Deal” calls for social disruption inside Iran, disruption that is supported by a large number of Arab nations. Who knows this? The Mullahs, that’s who. Here goes yet another old saying, and you know I love old sayings. “ A picture is worth a thousand words”! In this case, the pictures of Netanyahu talking and sitting with Arab leaders is one that is plastered in the conscious minds of the fanatics inside Tehran. Is that a god thing or a dangerous thing? It’s dangerous……………….and perhaps more dangerous than we realize.  

VENEZUELA. HOW DOES IT PLAY OUT?

Okay. Back on track. Back to covering what I wanted to talk about, at least for now, Venezuela and it’s neighbors. So, Mr. or  Interim President, you pick, Guaido states the aid sitting in Columbia will make it into Venezuela. He has “ volunteers” to bring the aid in through routs he knows of. Here is my question. Is he campaigning already? He knows those that don’t want Maduro are insisting on new elections. So, is Guaido already in platform mode? Is he out to help the people or is he out to win the Presidency?  As the “ Interim” it would be expected he would try to convince the people better days are coming, but his delivery of that message has to be carefully crafted or he runs the real risk of being framed as an opportunist and just another power hungry politician in a collapsed country.

Talks with China:

            Guaido holds “talks” with the Chinese? How does that play out in DC? Is he attempting to show the Dragon the oil will continue to flow? Is he looking for their undeclared support, because it would be just that, undeclared. Could the Chinese convince the Russians to allow things to change in Venezuela? Showing a divide between Russia and China over Madruo is not going to happen. He is not that important. So, what took place in those talks with the Dragon? Just how much knowledge does DC have on the topic? My guess, a great deal.

Bigger Question:

             When it comes to Venezuela, what is the issue the US has struggled with? Is it the personality of Maduro? No. Is it the fact he and Mr. Baseball have driven the people into poverty? Well, there’s poverty in every corner of the world, so my guess is, kids eating from trash cans is not the flashpoint some think it should be. How about relationships? Mr. Baseball and the Big Eddie Munster both had nurtured a bond with Iran and Hezbollah. Shocked. You shouldn’t be.  Is the issue with Venezuela not about the status of the people, but about the status of relationships the current government has with the US’s enemies? Has everyone forgot the Russian Bombers landing in Venezuela? Is China out just to secure Venezuela’s fuel? What deals have been cooking with the Dragon on the issue of ports and trade? I bet the US’s IC knows, or they better know.

Same Mistakes:

            If you don’t learn from history, you are bound to repeat it….right? That’s how the saying goes. Is the path the US is taking? Is this all about keeping the US’s enemies out of Central and South America? Is Guaido a friend today and a turncoat tomorrow? Is history going to repeat itself? Is this just another chapter in the failed US policy on Central and South America? I have to tell you, it sure smells like that’s what is cooking. If the Dragon is going to stand on the sidelines of this one, then there is something they expect in return. If they are expected to convince the Russians to let go, then both sides are going to want a payoff. My hunch is….don’t start cheering for Juan Guaido just yet. Side note. Mr. Putin is so busy tying puppet strings to the backs of other proxy nations, he fails to feel the strings the Dragon is attaching to his.

 To paraphrase a classic, “ CAN YOU SMELLLLLL……. WHAT THE DRAGON HAS COOKING”?

NORTH MACEDONIA AND NATO. WHY?

Well, here I go again. I keep trying to concentrate on the Americas, but people keep  stirring up events elsewhere I just can’t seem to overlook. North Macedonia….yep…that’s right….”North Macedonia”….not “Macedonia”…but…..North Macedonia. Did anyone track why this splitting of hairs took place? Who does it really matter to other than the Greeks? Don’t change the name, can’t get the vote. That is what it came down to. Vote for what you may ask? Why, the vote to enter into the process to join NATO. Wait. Are we talking about NATO expansion once again? Yep. Didn’ the West tell the Russians they wouldn’t do that? Oh…that’s right…..everyone that joined was not invited, they “asked” to join. Anyway, North Macedonia or Macedonia…take your pick…is not “Eastern Europe and the whole NATO statement was based on Eastern Europe.  

Upset:

            Did this North Macedonia “Accession” issue upset the Russians? All you have to do is read the Russian news today and you will have your answer. Does anyone factor in what this expansion could lead to? Usually, yes, but then again, those that write about anticipated actions are usually writing to impress those around them…their peers… and as such, they are most often dead wrong! In the US, those inside the IC are writing to get that next GS grade bump or preparing for their retirement life as a talking head. You want to know how this event is playing out? Easy, read the Russian news! “Open Source”….pound for pound…the best intelligence in the world…even with Fake News!

 Tit for Tat:

            It’s the game that has been played between the West and the East for decades and it will continue here. As a matter of fact, I can even get back on track with my desire to cover the Americas as an example. Both the US and Russian Intelligence Agencies know the status of the Venezuelan military. Both sides know the possibilities of key figures switching over to Guaido and the Russian even posted news stories yesterday on how the worries of Muduro staying in power. That ship for the Russians is sinking and Guaido has already reached out to the Dragon to keep that money train on the tracks. So, what happens? Options. That’s what happens. The Russians have options, as every side always does. Is the Tit for Tat option going to be trouble in Venezuela? Is it going to be Iran in Lebanon? That came up just this week. How about another nudge with the Sultan in Northern Syria? The West gets the NATO expansion prize with the events of North Macedonia, but what are the second and third order effects of that prize? You know, one of my favorite topics….the Law of Unintended Consequences. We will have to wait to see, but I would be willing to bet you, there will be repercussions. Venezuela and North Macedonia and not going to be unanswered “victories”.