DID ISRAEL’S LIMITED RESPONSE IN GAZA JUST SEAL THE FATE OF TEHRAN?

Perception is the key to just about anything that takes place in the world nowadays and the perception, as of this morning, was Hamas had once again made Israel and the IDF look foolish. Over 200 projectiles were fired into Israel in a 24 hour period and that was after weeks of violence along the border. Once again, Israel called yet another emergency cabinet meeting to determine what should be done. As this latest round of “meetings” was taking place, Hamas was continually sending Israeli citizens to the bomb shelters, screaming with terror all the way. Yes, Israel responded with a large scale air campaign and targets all over Gaza were struck,but, we all know how these air missions are perceived, even Israel’s own people have the same perception. Israel is attacked and they respond by bombing old buildings and facilities that have been evacuated hours prior to the attacks. Then the argument begins again over the issue of prior notification. Yes, the “ No Knock” topic comes back to the table. In order to limit the civilian casualties, someone continues to support the process of Israel telling what they may strike. The argument is always the same. How can you truly impact your enemy if you tell them you are coming and where you are going? Does Hamas or other groups that attack Israel gives such a warning?

            Okay. On face value, yesterday’s response to Hamas’ latest round of attacks on Israel was a perception management disaster. The question being asked, even as I write this post, is this. “why”? Why was the IDF not sent into Gaza? How is it that Israel now faces yet another failure in response? What could have convinced the leadership of Israel to limit their actions? I’ve heard one theory that I find utterly ludicrous. “ The IDF is not capable of taking on the issue of Gaza and Hezbollah / Iran in the North”. If you believe that, then you are clueless as to the capabilities of Israel. Another theory floating out there is based on Israel being asked to not take any action that might upset / derail / the Trump Peace Plan. What Peace Plan? What does it say? Where is it? How can you look your own people in the face, as they huddle in a bomb shelter, and say, “we don’t want to upset yet another US pipedream”? Nothing I’ve heard so far answer the question, why? So, given no one seems to have a valid answer, let me give you one, one I believe has far more validity than anything I’ve heard today.

Iran.

            Yes, Iran. Iran is the reason the IDF didn’t enter Gaza yesterday and Iran is the reason the IDF will not enter Gaza until the price for not doing so is so high they must go in. Now, you get to ask me the same question you asked everyone else. Why? Why would Iran stop the IDF from crushing Hamas? All right. Here is my answer and it’s a good one!

            Two days ago, when Hamas was in the midst of pushing Israel to It’s limits, I made the comment that Hamas must have gotten its marching orders from Tehran. Within 24 hrs, the talk went from an Egyptian brokered Cease Fire, to Hamas attacking Israel on a scale not seen in several years. Why would Tehran put  a stop to the Cease Fire “deal”? Simple. Because the Mullahs needed and still need a huge distraction in the region. If you’ve been paying attention for the past week, the protest in Iran are creeping near the 2009 levels. This time around, it might actually be worse. This time around it’s not just the college kids who are upset, its nearly every hard-working person in Iran. The economy is in shambles and their currency will hardly buy one meal. The Iranian people are quickly becoming so poor, they can’t even pay attention. All of this going on while BILLIONS of dollars, dollars Obama sent them, have gone “missing”. Yes. Iran is truly in a crisis of governance, perhaps the worst crisis since the so called, “Revolution”.  The old men in Tehran needed an event that would take the world’s attention away, and event that would suck the air out of the social media sites. They needed an event that would have the world look the other way while they crushed those who dared ask for a better life. So, Hamas, who owes Iran for providing them with their stockpiles of weapons in Gaza is ordered to attack Israel and attack Israel harder than they have in years. This would give Tehran what they were looking for, or so they thought!

The Bait didn’t work.  

            Who has better intelligence on Iran’s status than Israel? Who can send a team into Iran and steal their entire nuclear weapons program? Who knows the true weaknesses of the Mullahs? Does anyone, including Tehran, really think for a second Israel could not recognize this ploy? Can you imagine the conversation when the old men were informed the IDF was not going to enter Gaza? If you are sitting there wondering why Israel would do such a thing, go back to my question above. Who knows Iran better than Israel? Does anyone think Israel couldn’t see the real advantage they had? If Tehran was so desperate to force Hamas into a suicide mission, then just how worried are they about their own survival? What happens if the great distraction doesn’t take place? Then what? You see, Israel understood where they could inflict the most damage and how. By not turning Gaza into a battlefield, the pressure inside Iran would continue. No distraction would mean, no relief. Again, who would know better than Israel just how bad off Iran’s current leadership truly is? If Israel doesn’t go into Gaza, then the odds of the old men in Tehran being tossed from power goes up how much? Yes. Israel has once again outsmarted the Mullahs. There will be no distraction. There will be no relief, at least not from this event and that makes my last statement even more important. This current attempt to distract the world from Iran’s troubles didn’t work, but that was only this attempt. If the actions of Hamas were not enough, then what is the next level Tehran can come up with? Just how desperate are the Mullahs? Yes, I believe Israel figured out this plan and simply didn’t take the bait. Better than that, they have most likely made things worse for Tehran, but the Mullahs are quickly reaching a point of no return. Whatever you believe is too outrageous for them to attempt, you need to be prepared for just such an event to take place. This round went to Israel. The round before this one, the firing on the two oil tankers, didn’t work as well. Tehran is going to have to up their game and something tells me they will do just that. Meanwhile, social media provides the play by play of the protest in Iran. Yes, the people of Iran want what everyone else in the world wants. They want to feel safe and they want to know they have a future. As desperate as the Mullahs are becoming, I’m not sure Tehran won’t destroy that dream for every Iranian. Social Rights Activist in Iran. Keep up the outstanding work. I read everything you post, every day. Those of you that take to the streets of Iran, you are changing not only your future, you’re changing the future of the Middle East. More to follow.

GAZA. ROUND AND AROUND WE GO, BUT MAYBE NOT THIS TIME.

            All indications show the IDF is about to make a significant move into the Gaza Strip. Has this taken place before? Yes. Did it solve the issue at hand? They were not designed to do so. Why? Because the political price to pay for a full-on occupation was too high for Israel and the concept of providing for a large mass of people who hate you would have been and would be a disaster. Any Post Operational mission in Gaza would not go well. Simply put, the price for neutralizing the threats from Gaza was greater than the benefits of doing so. How could tolerating the constant attacks from Gaza achieve anything? It has never been about achieving something in Gaza. It’s been about keeping your enemies concentrated in a single area and limiting just what level of weaponry they can obtain. Containment. Gaza has always been about “Containment”. So, what has changed? Why the statement about an impending ground operation into Gaza that would be “significant”?

What has changed?

            The US.  The support from the US since the last Gaza incident. That is a huge “change”. The US is 100 % behind, at least Team Trump is, Israel and everyone in the region and in Moscow knows it. If the IDF  moves on the ground into Gaza, even all of Gaza, the US will back that action all the way. Yes there will be calls for consideration on all sides for the civilians, but those are always just disclaimers every nation puts out there. It’s a “feel good” statement. So what has changed? The US. That’s what’s changed!

            Weapons. The weapons for Hamas and “others” in Gaza have changed. Who would have ever thought that thousands of acres of farmland in Israel could be damaged, crops destroyed, by kites and balloons? How could Israel possibly use its mighty military to attack kids flying kites? That’s the picture that became the center of the plan for Israel’s adversary. To a large extent, the perception concept worked. Coverage of such events has been and continues to be overwhelmingly against Israel. In short, the enemies of Israel have been successfully inflicting damage with the most simplistic weapons one could think of. That is a huge “change”.

            Russia.  The last time Israel executed a real operation into Gaza, the Russian activity in the region was mostly behind the scenes. Now, the Russians are physically parked on the border of Israel at the Golan Heights. Not only are the Russians there, the Iranians and their proxy fighters, Hezbollah as well. Talk about “change”! Yes, Russia states they are there to keep the peace between Israel and Syria and of course, they were invited by Assad. Russia has stated no Iranian forces or Hezbollah units will be within apx  50 miles of the Israeli border with Syria, but there is not a reasonable person in the world that believes that statement. Is Russia out to pressure Israel? Is Russia attempting to influence Israel’s actions? No. That’s not the Tsar style😊 ( Insert humor here). Israel must now negotiate with Moscow more than at anytime in it’s past. Is that a “change”?

            Hamas.  Is Hamas the same organization it was the last time the IDF went after them on the ground? No. Their internal struggle for power inside the Palestinian movement is worse than ever.  The games they have been playing with Fatah and Mr. Abbas has left Gaza worse off than it has ever been. Money sent to help Gaza’s people disappears and all sides point their fingers at each other. Hamas still looks to Egypt for some level of moral support, but Egypt sees Hamas only from the perspective of leverage. What can Egypt do with them that benefits Egypt? Does the Egyptian government care about Gaza? No, unless you are talking about the tunnels and the income those who run them make. So, in the end, Hamas continues to be in a power struggle for control of the Palestinian “movement” and that struggle has them looking for anyone that is willing to help them. The problem comes, when those agreeing to help ask for something in return.

            Iran.  What has “changed” for Iran? Well, just about everything! To say things have gone from bad to worse is a huge understatement. When Hamas calls Tehran and says, “We’ve got issues here in Gaza”, the old men in Tehran just laugh and say, “you don’t know what bad is”. Yesterday, my discussion with some of the people supporting the protest in Iran was all about the possible events in Gaza. The old men in Tehran need a huge distraction right about now and a large scale, IDF push into Gaza would be just the ticket. Well, the next thing you know, the so called  Hamas / Israeli Cease Fire process, being facilitated by Egypt, falls apart and the rockets rain down on Israel right on cue! Did this latest round of attacks by Hamas come at the request of Tehran? You will have a hard time convincing anyone in Israel it didn’t. Will it work? Will another Gaza operation save the Iranian government? No, but the old men in Tehran are so desperate, they are willing to try anything.  

            So, there you have it. The changes that could spell another round of operations in Gaza are on the table. But wait! The point was not, will it happen. The question was, will it be different? Well, everything mentioned above will impact the level of action, but what truly is the deciding factor in just how hard Israel moves against Gaza? Ramifications. Now, there is an important word.

            Ramifications.   Does Israel take on the burden of destroying Hamas and “others” inside of Gaza and in doing so, take on the responsibility for providing support to those who are impacted? The answer has historically been, “it’s not worth it”, but “change” is the word of the day and that word applies this time around as well. Every time Israel takes on Hamas in Gaza, the event goes something like this. Hamas escalates quickly and then indicates they are talking of a cease fire as the IDF is executing some limited response by air or artillery. By the time a decision has been made to conduct a ground operation, the perception is, Israel is overreacting. Yep, the decision process in Israel is too long and Hamas plays this like a fiddle. Simply put, Hamas strikes, and then waits for Israel to either under react or overreact. Either way, it’s Israel that loses the perception war. This same storyline has held true with Hezbollah. Israel must always wait until the pros and cons are argued inside their cabinet. This is where they lose the real battle, the perception / world opinion battle.

            A few months ago, the Prime Minister and the Defense Secretary were given the power to declare war. This had to have been an attempt by Israel to address this decision-making quagmire, but that decision was quickly overturned and once again, Israel drags its response through the political process as Hamas or Hezbollah or “others” shape the event. Just yesterday, my comment on the initial attacks from Gaza were based on how puzzled I was over the seemingly slow and limited response. Yes, the airstrikes were immediate, but the rockets rained down on Israel for hours afterword.

            What does this all mean? Why could this response be different? I will tell you why. Because it has to be. Israel is facing a Hezbollah force that is better equipped than at anytime in their past. Israel is facing an embolden and desperate Iran. Israel is facing a new level of influence from the Russians. To put it simply. Israel is feeling more external pressure than ever before and the support from the US is only based on Team Trump. That support could leave as quickly as it came. Now is the time for Israel to put meaning behind it’s words. When the statement is made, “Israel will do whatever it takes to protect the people of Israel”, then an action that is unprecedented made be required. Gaza is and will continue to be a danger to Israel. The leadership of Gaza is the danger, not it’s people. Many discussions have been held on the topic of Regime Change. As the Israeli Cabinet meets today, the decision to move into Gaza or not to move into Gaza will be made, if it has not already been made. My advice is this. A limited event is more damaging than a full-scale operation. Doing nothing other than air strikes is a complete victory for Hamas. Yes, this latest episode may be at the demands of Tehran and yes, Tehran would love nothing more than to see all of Gaza under attack, but a much larger message may need to be sent. Gaza will not be the first territory that is used to send a true warning. Civilians are the casualty of conflict and that cannot be avoided. Gaza may be about to pay a terrible price for the dreams of fools, but Israel has a limited window to deal with this issue of threats from Gaza and that window could be closing as I write this. Ramifications are the factors that Israel is weighing right now, but the times comes when ramifications must be accepted. Risk is always an unknown, but risk is the option that must be taken. Gaza cannot be the wound that never heals. The poople of Gaza deserve to be free, but that may only come after a great deal more pain.

IS IRAN REACHING CRITICAL MASS AND IF SO…..THEN WHAT?

            Protest in the streets of Iran’s cities again. Is that new news? No. Is this round something different? Could be. Has anyone thought through the ramifications of a real Civil War, Revolution, Uprising, take your pick on terminology here. What happens if Iran goes the way of Syria? Can Iran go the way of Syria? What would that mean to the region? Now, don’t get me wrong, I am with the, “Toss the Mullahs out” crowd all the way, but…..and this is a big but…… what is the desired outcome? What happens if the desired goal is reached? More importantly, is how it is reached acceptable to everyone that prays it will happen? Is there a unified “plan” for the fall of the current government in Tehran? If there is a plan, and I’m betting from the Western perspective there is not such a plan, does that plan fit in with what Moscow and Saudi and Turkey and Israel and Jordan and Egypt…..okay….you get the idea. If the US is not attempting “Regime Change”😊, then how would a plan have been developed? Who would have been in on the planning team? Yes. I believe Iran’s current government is in real trouble and yes, I believe the collapse of the current government in Iran could create a crisis. How many factions have a “great idea” on how to run the new government of Iran? So, while everyone is cheering on the protest, let’s take a look at what might happen.

THE IRGC:

            I talked about this yesterday, but today’s topic has a different twist. If the Mullahs are going to fall from power in Iran, it will have to be because the IRGC no longer supports them. What are the Mullahs without the IRGC? Does Rouhani have the support of the people who are out to change the government? No. Does he have the support of the IRGC? Not yet; although Soleimani did talk about kissing his hand! So, is Rouhani the answer? No. the key to Iran’s future is the IRGC. Do they support the Mullahs to the bitter end, or do they find a way for the Iranian nation to avoid Civil War and yet maintain their hold of the real power?  What part of the IRGC will the people who are protesting accept? Now, that is the real concern. It’s hard to come to terms with the very organization that was shooting at you from the rooftops. Will any part of the IRGC leadership have the ability to talk to the people of Iran? The IRGC is the foundation of the Iranian government, but that foundation is committing terrible acts against it’s own people, mostly by using it’s proxy force, the Basij. If the IRGC cannot find a way to control their future, then why would they not fight to the end? There you Have it, the core requirement of a real Civil War.

Outsiders:

            How many groups, both nation states and NGOs, do you think have an idea on what Iran should look like after the fall of the Mullahs? How many of these ideas do you think take into consideration what all the others, “think”? Do you think the future of Iran looks the same from Moscow as it does from DC or Ankara or Riyadh…. and the list goes on. Iran’s oil and gas resources mean more to any of these capitals than the political outcome of Iran. How much money is there to be made by rebuilding the military or infrastructure of Iran if God forbid, there is a Syrian level Civil War? Conflicts are always, in the end, about money and power. Those who desire freedom are brushed aside by those who seek power and fortune. Just look at the history of Iran for the past 70 yrs. and tell me I’m not correct. Everyone has an opinion on what the “New Iran” should look like, what it should do and not do, whose friend they should be and not be. The problem is, the people on the streets in Iran will most likely not get a real vote in any of those decisions. What they will desire is an end to the violence, the ability to buy food and essentials for their families and in the end, to stay alive. After nearly eight years of Civil War in Syria, go ask the people of Syria what they would like the most right now. The more it appears the stabilization of Iran is in question, the more likely multiple countries and organizations are plotting how to make this event advantageous, how to take advantage of an Iran in crisis. There is blood in the water and the sharks are beginning to circle.

What could happen:

            The Intelligence Community / IC/ and an army of contractors are working on the possible course of actions/ COAs/  that could take place in Iran. Talking Papers and PowerPoint Slides are flying all over the world, but with the clear majority of this taking place in DC. As I’ve said before, I would bet the Pizza Boxes are stacking up all over the place. Taking out the Army Speak, let me give you a down and dirty review of what they are coming up with.

            COA 1: The government of Iran escapes into exile, leaving Rouhani trying to hold the nation together. IRGC leadership also leaves to parts unknown, most likely Russia. Russia and the US announce a multinational group, coordinated by the UN to support Rouhani as he attempts to stabilize the government. I.E. The Russian’s influence over Iran remains. Now, as crazy as some of these COAs may seem, the real crazy thing is, how many annexes are developed based on these COAs. I’m not kidding you when I tell you thousands of people work on these things, no matter how crazy they sound.

            COA2: The IRGC removes the Mullahs and declares their support for the Iranian President. The Russians, see a pattern here😊, announce they have been asked by Iran’s new government to provide “support” to bring peace back to the nation. Russian announces that all Sanctions against Iran should be lifted immediately. The US states their full support for the new government in Tehran as long as the conditions of noninterference in the region become the new goal of the new government.  In the end, this COA was preapproved in both Moscow and DC with DC and Moscow informing the “others”, “this is how it’s going to be”. Do the people of Iran accept this COA? Well, that is why there are dozens of annexes developed by thousands of planners.

            COA3: We will stop at three, because most Four Star Generals don’t want to sit and listen to more than 3 COAs.  The IRGC decides to take the same approach as in 2009 and crush the “Resistance”. Iran states the Protestors are supported by agents of the US and Israel and it’s an attempt to conduct a regime change. The IRGC anticipates the Protestors will gain no outside support and additional sanction actions will have limited impact on the Iranian government. The world sees the  violent actions live on social media and the US demands a total oil embargo on Iran’s exports. The UNSC take a vote on the embargo with the Russians vetoing the vote as China abstains. The US declares a “Coalitions Naval Force” that will deny Iranian shipments through the Strat of Hormuz. Russian unofficially warns Iran they will not support them in a conflict with the US and its Allies. As the first Iranian oil tankers attempt to pass through the strait, the IRGC Navy is fired upon and then…..it’s on like Donkey Cong!!!! A brief, regional war takes place with the end result being the decimation of the Iranian military and collateral damage throughout the region. Now, talk about levels of COA annexes! Here is what worries me the most. The COA most US four Stars will order further development of is COA3. Why, because that is what they are tasked to do. Be ready to fight and win.

Summary:

            Now, these COAs are just a few examples of what is taking place and obviously many other possible scenarios exist, but when you get right down to it, one of three things is going to happen. Iran will put down the protest at some point and survive on Chinese and Russian and Turkish sales with a new standard of economic reality. The protest will create wide disruption and the IRGC will have to joint or not join, based on the number of defections. Or, the country will slide into a Civil War much like Syria.

            When the Arab Spring first got underway, the old men in Tehran were convinced it was a Western plot to bring down the Iranian government. Ironic given many of the Monarchies in the Middle East thought the same thing. The fear of their own people never went away. The memories of 2009 are still there. Iran is in real…..real….trouble and that “trouble” may not be confined to just Iran. Donkey Cong! I liked that one!

THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS. IRAN’S “SHADOW GOVERNMENT”.

            In a world that seems to be controlled by “rumors”, thanks to social media, I read an interesting one this weekend. Rumor. Soleimani may be on the “outs” with his Boss in Tehran. Not only General Soleimani, but others in the IRGC. Now, that is interesting, especially to a guy like me, a guy who asked the question, “Where does Soleimani’s loyalties lie”? It was only last week that I asked this question on this very blog page. Yep, this “rumor” caught my attention and that led me down the path of yet another question, one I’ve asked before. What is the ultimate goal of the IRGC?

Brief Background on the IRGC:

            Some folks have gone out and written books on the topic of the IRGC, but I’m not into academic level analysis. Let me give you the down and dirty about the IRGC. The organization was started for one primary reason, the so called “Revolutionaries” didn’t trust the Iranian military…..period….. end of story. By the way, did they have any reason to? Ask Turkey. Now, not long after this poorly designed organization was started, Iran stepped into the eight year war with Iraq, a war that saw the US and it’s Allies openly supporting Iraq and So Damn Insane😊. What happened to the fledgling organization in that eight year war? They were decimated time and time again. By the time Tehran decided to give up, the IRGC was not even on the rest of the world’s radar. The old men in Tehran decided it was time to invest in a force that could execute the plans Tehran had for the region and this investment was not going to take place for an organization they didn’t trust and had just lost an eight year war.

            Flash forward a decade or so and you see the “new” IRGC. The IRGC that controls large areas of Iranian business, policy and development. What you see is the Iranian version of the Nazi SS, complete with a Hitler Youth Group look alike called, “ The Basij”. Now, jump to current times and you see an even more powerful organization. An organization that forms the backbone of the Iranian government. Simply put, without the IRGC, the old men in Tehran are nothing and nobody knows this more than they do. Let’s face facts. The IRGC is the Shadow Government of Iran. Everyone that studies Iran, knows this to be true and you can bet the US and the IC world believes that statement.  

The Haves and the Have Nots:

            Just where does the “regular” Iranian military stand? If you want a quick answer,  take a look at the two Iranian Navies. Yes, over ten years ago, Iran supposedly reorganized their two navies, on paper at least. One was given the primary job and one was given the “backup” job. Guess which Navy was tasked with the most important job? Who received a lion’s share of the funding? Yep. The IRGC. The climate of haves and have nots has been growing from day one and its growing as this post is being written. A climate of haves and have nots, not only with day to day Iranian citizens, but with military members as well exist in Iran. Are there interservice rivalries in other nation’s militaries? Yes, huge ones, but are those nations at the brink of social unrest? Are those services known for not training together, not working together and please don’t tell me the Iranian military “works” together. If you know them, then you know their ability to conduct combined arms, fires, operations on a modern battlefield are non existent. The reality is, the military the old men in Tehran feared when they first came to power, is still not trusted today and thus not funded and not utilized. Who knows this better than the men who serve in that “regular” military? Okay, back to a statement I made for a minute, because I know some of you are going to say, “Iran has a very capable military”. Where is their version of Joint Readiness Training Center / JRTC? What it the location of the Iranian, National Training Center/ NTC?  Name me the Professional Military Education classes / PME / that prepare Iranian Army leaders to  interoperate with Iranian Naval forces and Air assets on the battlefield? Look. You can buy all the weapons systems you want. You can have as many parades and live fires as you like. That does not make nor will it EVER make you a modern military capable of 21^st century warfare.

Trust:

            Iran’s leadership includes senior members of the IRGC. How’s that for integration? Not only does the IRGC control a large segment of the Iranian economy, they actually control part of the government itself. Shadow…remember the word. It’s seems the old men in Tehran, “Trust” the IRGC implicitly. Okay, then why the “rumor” of replacements? Yes. It’s just a “rumor”, but someone started it. It has some purpose behind it. Can someone create a perception of doubt by starting such a “rumor”? Ah yes, the art of Information Warfare comes back to the table. Or….. the “rumor” is true! The “rumor’s origin is a “reliable source”? Here’s one that is even better. The “Rumor” is wrapped in the storyline the “source” is reliable. The “source” is on the inside!  You have to love information warfare, perception management, Effects Based Operations….call it what you want……you just have to love how it pulls on the strings of “trust”. Someone let General Soleimani hear yet another “rumor” about his fate. Does he shrug it off? Does he wonder just how desperate the old men are becoming? Does he see this new movement of youthful “hardliners” as a group that no longer values his abilities or actions? What conversations has he had about the future of Iran and who has he had those conversations with? Trips to Moscow……remember the word…….shadow!

            Has someone successfully convinced the old men that changes need to take place in the most important branch of the Iranian government, the IRGC? Have the Mullahs really begun to worry about the leadership of the one organization that could remove them from power, the organization they built to protect them? More importantly, what is the most important issue to the IRGC? Do they see a pending war they cannot win? Do they see their own people having to be gunned down in their towns and cities to keep the old men in power? Do they see what they have feared since 2011, the Arab Spring…..Persian style? They can fight the US and Israel and Saudi and a few others. They can inflict economic damage on the West, but that damage will have tremendous repercussions for Moscow. Is that what their most vital supporters want? Does Moscow intend on keeping the old men in power at the cost of a regional war? Would an Arab Spring type event not be much less costly to the overall desires of the US and Moscow and even China? Just how important are these Mullahs? In the past few days, the people of Iran have been taking to the streets demanding not just change, but food, water, jobs, you know….a life! There is one man who can make all of this go away. General Soleimani, and the old men in Tehran know it. He can make the people of Iran go away in a Civil War blood bath like the one he is involved with in Syria or he can make the old men in Tehran go away. What option is it the Mullahs must believe he is contemplating? Why the “rumor” of Soleimani’s departure? The IRGC is a Shadow Government and General Soleimani is the most known Iranian military figure in the world. A figure that has made trips to Moscow. A Moscow that is cutting “deals” with the US on the whole region. If the Mullahs still own property in France, they may want to have someone get the place ready. Perception Management and Effects Based Operations, you just gotta love it! “ You’re Fired…..NO Old Man….You are fired”!

NORTH KOREA AND “ARMY DAYS”. WHAT’S THE REAL MESSAGE?

            Intelligence indicates North Korea is continuing to build their ICBMs?  Shocker! Meanwhile, China and it’s very nervous partner, Russia, hold “Army Days”, a live fire exercise designed to sell military hardware. Oh ya, the Iranians where there as well. Read between the lines on that one. And finally, yesterday, Moscow states they cannot prevent Iran from staying in Syria. Put a few things like these three together, and what do you have? A clue…. That’s what you have …… a clue!

            The US / West / wants this and they want that. The US / West / wants Democracy and free trade and secular politics and so on and so on. Well, some nations, ones that happen to be very powerful, they don’t see it that way. They don’t see the US attempting to shape how the world should look. Their vision of how the world should work is not in alignment with the “vision” of the US and it’s Allies. In the end, most worldly people will say, “you have to have balance. You have to find common ground”. Well, most with that viewpoint have spent their lives in organizations that don’t deal with reality. They thrive in Universities or other versions of closed societies. It’s a philosophical viewpoint that has historically resulted in even larger conflicts.

Words:

            I’ve had this conversation on many occasions, but let me go down this road one more time.  Words. When opposing sides sit down and try to solve “issues” with words and at least one of those in the conversation has no faith in the process of “words”, then the outcome is predictable, or at least it should be. Sitting down with North Korea was based upon “words” and photographs. One side made the meeting happen because they said they would address the nuclear issue and the other side sat down because they were told to do so. That was not and will not be, a recipe for success. Now, it’s discovered the North Koreans have continued building ICBMs. Let’s get something clear. Western Intelligence has known from day one the process was continuing. What changed was the decision to let that statement get out. Who let it out and why? Is anyone asking that question today? Okay, let me drive on.  North Korea head the threats. China heard the threats. Everyone in the world heard the threats coming from DC and yet, the North Korean program continues, at some level. Why? How could everyone hear what might happen to North Korea and just smile? What is truly more frightening? The fact the program is continuing or the reality the threats were ignored? 

Have the tables turned?

            For years now, I’ve listened to all the so called “experts” in the US and the West, talk about how China has too much to lose. Their economy is too dependent on the US and Western trade. They would not risk a confrontation with the US and its Allies. This has been the worn-out analysis on the issue of the US’s interest in the Pacific for over twenty years now. Times change, but the important fact is, you must recognize the change. Perhaps it’s the Dragon that now believes, “The US cannot go to war. Their people are too divided. Their media spends every day working to destroy the current administration”. Look. It’s this simple and you don’t have to have a PHD from Georgetown to figure it out. Do other nations simply not fear the threats that come from DC? Has the “Expert” analysis opinion been flipped? Is it the US that is unable to risk a larger conflict with a powerful enemy? Is the enemy beginning to simply ignore the US? Do they smell blood in the water as the US seems fixated on removing Trump from power? Is there reason for US’s adversaries to feel confident? Who are the US’s adversaries?

Moscow takes a stand.   

            “The Iranians are playing a very important role”. That is the message Moscow sent Israel on Tuesday. Israel’s stance on Iran’s involvement inside Syria was made a few weeks ago and that stance has not and will not change. Does that mean Moscow will back Iran if the IDF goes after it in Syria? No. Does it mean whatever message the US tried to convey to Moscow on the issue of Iran was not received? Most likely. North Korea continues to build ICBMs and Moscow refused to push Iran. Looks like the US’s message is not being heard or worse, no one believes the message. Don’t forget. A great deal of money can be made by replacing all the items Iran may lose in a conflict. It just takes having to give up a percentage of the oil and gas business to those who show up with replacement items. I’ve beat that horse over and over again, but the point is an important one. Moscow is going to let Iran do as it wishes just as long as Russian interest are not placed at risk. As for DC’s warnings, well, Moscow doesn’t seem to care.

Army Games:

            Live fire sales pitches? Is that something new? No, not really. Live fire demos with the Russians, Chinese and Iranians? Is that something new? Given the environment Iran finds itself in, yes……yes it is! Does taking part in a live fire exercise with Russia and China mean the Iranians have found top-cover from the pending threats from DC and Israel? No. Is it an indicator of where things are heading? Yes. Iran would love nothing more than to have both China and Russia sticking up for the old men in Tehran, even if it was only limited to words. Again. Times are changing and Army Games is just another indicator of those changing times. Showing the world state of the art military hardware, hardware that can be purchased at a fraction of the cost of Western / US / EU / suppliers, that is the message from Army Games.

What is the US to do?

            North Korea is building ICBMs. Iran is threatening the Mother of all wars and the US media is cheering for the Special Prosecutor to bring a seated President to trial. Does The Donald threaten North Korea again? I would be willing to bet CNN and MSNBC already have the story written about what a chump Trump was with Kim. Does a twitter come out of the White House threatening Kim? What statement could the US President make right now that would gain the support of the 95 percent of the US media that hates him? Why would any of our adversaries believe for a minute the US is capable of a major conflict?  How confident are they the US is falling apart? Well, perhaps they are confident enough to keep building ICBMs that can reach the US mainland. Perhaps they are confident enough to fire on oil tankers. Do any of the Trumpaphobics understand it’s not the actions of Trump that threaten the safety of the US. It’s their actions. It’s their phobic loathing  that emboldens those who are ready to ignore the “words” coming from DC.

            As a reminder. Agreements are made between parties who have a common desire, goal. Military superiority forces all others to compromise. The US’s military advantage has force others to compromise for decades. People don’t like compromise. Many don’t even accept agreements.  We are on a wild road folks.

IRAN’S THREATS AND ACTIONS. JUST HOW DESPERATE ARE THEY BECOMING?

            As of the moment I write this, it seems the rumors of pending actions against Iran are not only continuing, but they’re increasing. Yes, political leaders and staffs use inflammatory  statements, sometimes for their own people and sometimes for their adversaries. It’s for that reason, many folks who watch the Middle East don’t overreact when such statements are made. But, as I said two days ago, that all changed with the events of General Soleimani’s words and the attacks on oil shipments. Now a new rumor is growing, but this time, it’s more than your typical rumor. The US is going to execute a plan to keep Middle East waterways safe? Well, two things. First off, the ability to do so depends on what the desired outcome is. Secondly, the translation of this statement is simple. The US is considering actions to neutralize Iran’s capabilities to impact the shipping in the region. So, the rumors of the US’s pending attack on Iran’s nuclear program may have been met with quick denial, and that is always worrisome, but the concept of the US and it’s Allies not tolerating what took place a few days ago, well, that is not a rumor. That is reality. But in all the talk of this pending conflict, a stranger message comes out of Tehran.

Iran’s Parliament Speaks:

            Ali Larijani makes a statement about possible “ negotiating” with the US. Wait…..what? a guy who is close to Khameini hints of possible negotiations with the Great Satan? By they way. It’s really hard to “negotiate” with a nation whose leaders refer to you as, “The Great Satan”, unless you are just looking to fill your own nations’ history books with your so called “accomplishments”, but let’s move on. Why would Larijani, a hardliner, make this statement now? With the war drums beating louder by the day, what is with a Hardliner giving hints? Even if he was genuine and received permission to make such a statement, who in the US would believe him? Well, maybe France or the rest of the EU, but that doesn’t matter. In the US  I.C. world, this is yet another event coming from Iranian leadership that is worthy of more pizza consumption. Here is the item those pizza folks will crawl all over. Is there a growing split inside Iran’s government? Is the economic and regional pressure becoming too much for a worn-out leadership team in Tehran? Does Larijani’s statement indicate, blood in the water? Here’s the read catch. To the planners inside of Central Command, it doesn’t matter. What matters to them is if they get the order to neutralize the threats to shipping in the region. Plans are always ready. Detailed plans that simply require last minute reviews, especially with your Allies. Larijani may have been told to make that statement, but then again, he may not have and the beauty of the IC word is being able to change the message someone gives. Even if he didn’t mean to show division in Tehran, smart people can take his words and create a new perception. A perception that he did so out of desperation and that means a decaying loyalty. Yes. The art of information warfare is a 21^st century is a skill that is growing by the hour.

If the order is given:

            Tell Central Command to neutralize the threats to shipping in the region and they will do exactly that. I worked there for a short period of time and playing games is not an option. No one understands this better than Iran’s military leadership, or they better! The Iranian Navy knows what their fate will be if they go into a true conflict with the US. Sending proxy fighters from other shorelines and then denying you had anything to do with their actions will not save the Iranian Navy. It may play well in Tehran, but the Iranian Navy doesn’t live in Tehran.

            Options are a common tool of the US military. The US Secretary of Defense most likely asked the CENTCOM Commander for “options”. Those options will be shown to the President and then a decision is made on what “option” to take. Now. Remember. We are talking about The Donald here! The US can send a clear warning to Iran and in that case, I would not want to be on the Saviz. That’s the kind of warning The Donald may wish to send. If that ship is the reason the proxy fighters are able to achieve shots on oil tankers, then that ship may become a new fish nursery. Let’s be very….very…..clear on this point. If the US leadership ops to remove the threat to shipping, then the potential consequences of that act have been briefed to a level of detail most of you would not understand. Yes, the US can decide to send a message to Iran, but as is the universal rule of warfare states, “the other side get’s a vote”!

Iran’s Options:

            Here is the most simplistic way to frame the question. Iran has no “good” options. The Russians will not defend them. The secret handshake with North Korea looks to be a thing of the past. China will simply sit back and watch what unfolds. The old men in Tehran cannot give in to US demands, although some of them make be quietly thinking about doing just that. Iran can continue to supply the proxy fighters in Yemen and perhaps even let them take another shot at an oil tanker, but we all know where that might lead. Iran can continue with wild threats and yet do nothing to implement any of them and that is a very safe course of action right now. Sound ominous but do nothing to invoke the wrath of The Donald; that might be their best bet. Even that option has huge pitfalls. Just today, the story broke about Iran’s currency hitting a new low. 100k rials to one…..one US dollar! What made the people of Iran walk into the streets? The economy. What does this story of the continued collapse of Iran’s currency mean to the old men in Tehran. Yep, nothing but more bad options.

            The Iranian story has been going from bad to worse for months.  Supporting an attack on oil movements in the region was a desperate and dangerous act and everyone sees it just that way. Some say it was a warning of just how desperate Iran is becoming and as such, everyone needs to think carefully about how to respond. Here is the problem. Does The Donald think carefully? Has the CENTCOM Commander provided his assessment of what could happen if the order is given to make the shipping lanes safe. Better yet. Did the US President understand the possible repercussions? Did he listen to his Secretary of Defense? What risk is The Donald willing to accept? What option does the US President believe the Iranians will take?

            As the midnight oil keeps burning in Tehran, another briefing is waiting in the hallway. It’s the latest update on Israel’s options. That briefing has a Russian annex and that annex has the same message from Moscow.  “ You are on your own, but don’t fear. We will come in and clean up what is left of you after it’s over. All we will require is control of your fuel industry”. If you think that is not the real message from Russia, than you don’t understand the real position Iran finds themselves in. Nobody wants a war in the region, especially a war between Iran and the US and Allies. Well, perhaps the word, “nobody” is a bit strong. A future King in Saudi may set his sites on the Saviz, or any other Iranian ship in the Red Sea. Why take the first shot? Why not let someone else get it started and then tell the world you have no choice than to end the event as soon as possible.

            I know this guy, we will call him “Dan” and he’s finishing a book about a Third World War. It seems this book gets started with a maritime incident between Iran and Saudi. Boy, I have no idea where that theory came from, but I know he’s about to finish the book😊

SOLEIMANI’S THREATS. DID HE SAY TOO MUCH?

            Yesterday, my pitch was based on the ever changing actions and words of the Iranian General who spent most of his life in the background of politics and his warning to the US. I commented a few of his statements had implications that most may have missed. So, let me go take a look at those statements and lets see what might have taken place.

Did he say Too Much?  
           

            Cool and calculating. Those are accurate words when it comes to the Iranian general, at least they were in the past. It’s also well known that most military leaders in the Middle East tend to make flashy statements and threats without a great deal of research. An interesting point given most Arabs pride themselves in “talking between the lines………..the message inside the message”. It’s a trait I learned over there years ago. So, what was said by Soleimani that should have caught the ear of those that know how to listen and you can bet the intelligence community heard him, or at least I hope they did!  Look. Here is the deal. In most “modern militaries”, official statements by senior leaders are well scripted and analyzed by very complex groups of both political leaders and historical experts. By the time someone like the US Secretary of Defense, although he has been known to say some interesting things, makes a public statement, what was meant and what the possible outcomes of that statement may become have all been reviewed over and over again. The bad news is, even then, they often have second and third order effects that no one truly anticipated.

The Red Sea is not safe:

The Red Sea is not safe with the US in the area? Okay, now that is one of the two statements Soleimani put out there I found disturbing. The Iranian threat has always been the movement of oil from the region, but historically, the area of concern has been the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past few weeks, the threats coming from Iran have been geared towards the Strait, or at least that is what many assumed. Then, two ships are fired upon off the coast of Yemen and the weapons that were used were provided by the Iranians. Does Iran think for a second everyone doesn’t understand what took place here? They threaten, and then one of their proxy fighter groups attacks. Who is the center element of the protection for these ships? The US and Iran knows it. So, the statement is, the Red Sea is not safe with the US in the area. Is Iran truly trying to signal to the US they may be pushed out of the area? Really? Now, earlier, I made the comment leaders like Soleimani often don’t review what they are going to say with the intent of not saying too much. If there is one way to get great intel out of the Middle East, it’s getting someone to talk too much. Come to think of it. It’s a great way to get intel out of DC. Did Soleimani intend to play his card this way? Did he intend to send a message the attacks on the two ships was Iran’s doing? If he did, he didn’t think that one through very well. Saudi “Temporarily” stops movement by ships. Did it impact the price of oil and gas that much? Perhaps for a day or two. Is the increased price of gas and oil a good thing for those that support Iran…..Russia? yes, but not at the cost of something that can become very….very reckless. Did Soleimani have the blessing of Moscow on the words he used? I would love to know the answer on that one, but my hunch is no. The Red Sea becomes the threat and the Iranian general seems to have placed the blame on the US. I have to wonder, just how does Soleimani think the US will respond to this threat? Oh, by the way. It appears the general is now speaking for the Iranian Navy. Didn’t know that was a job for the Quds. Perhaps Soleimani didn’t review his speech with his counterparts in the Navy?

We are closer to you than you think?

            That was the second statement that caught my attention. What? What does that mean? Now, that’s one the intel folks will have a field day with. Why, I can see it now, dozens of PowerPoint slides and hours of Rock Drills / Rehearsals at all levels. I bet that one statement alone cost the US Taxpayer about a million dollars in salary / manhours. Closer to the US where….how……with what? The US may start the war, but Iran will end it? I bet the doomsday club inside the intel world ordered 500 pizzas over that statement alone, not to mention the legions of contractors who will get paid by the word to analyze what that statement could mean. Yep, guys like Soleimani speak and people see dollar signs. Okay. Back to the statement. Again, the question becomes, did the general say too much? Did he let his grandstanding overload his brain? It happens all the time over there, but this guy is different, at least he used to be. What did he mean? What was he referring to? Fast Boats that are tucked away along the coastline? Boats that can launch ship killers? Do the Iranians really think we don’t know where these boats are? Do they understand that if they truly start such an operation, the Iranian Navy will no longer exist? Can that threat be tied to his Red Sea statement? I don’t think so. The ability for Iran to block the Strait or any other area in the “Red Sea” is limited and the price they would pay is beyond anything any Iranian military leader is willing to suffer. Yes. There is the issue of “tension” between the Iranian regular military and the IRGC / Quds.

            If the statement about how close they are is not tied to the ability to block shipping, then where else is this comment possibly pointed to? Could it be, the cool, calculating Soleimani is no longer just that? Did he say too much and give away something the US will dig for answers on? When you tell the intel community they may have “missed something” it drives them crazy. Did he mean to drive them crazy with a statement that has no meaning?

            Prepositioned. Is the general hinting, perhaps by accident, that Iran has prepositioned assets? The US has known for years Hezbollah has been active in Central and South America, but the theory, one I didn’t agree with, was it was based on fund raising. Not everyone believed that analytical line, but the final verdict usually revolved around money. Now what? With the statement, what does the Intel world go back and look at? Remember what I said about being told they overlooked something. I can just see the gears turning in any agency that has dealt with Hezbollah in Central and South America. Let’s just hope someone doesn’t get too paranoid. The next thing you know, there is a Qud / Hezbollah Cell behind every palmetto in South America. Funding. Boy would that be a funding bonanza for a few groups I know.

What does it all mean?

            Some will be charged with looking into what Soleimani said and why. Some will be tasked to see who he talked to before and after the speech. Some will be tasked with looking through every possibility based on what he said. The fact of the matter is, the general maid some very unusual comments in conjunction with an attack on two oil tankers. Oh ya, and now I hear the rumor of the US planning a strike on Iran’s nuclear locations. Funny. Two can play the game of words. Moscow’s media mouthpiece ran the story about the “pending attack” and you can bet that had the phones ringing in Tehran. As for the general. He is not the man I once studied. He has changed and I have to wonder if he is as skilled at messaging as he was at avoiding being in the spotlight?