IRAN’S ENRICHMENT THREAT. THEY EDGE CLOSER TO THE ABYSS.

          Khamenei orders the preparation for enrichment? Unless the EU falls on it’s knees and meet’s the crazy old man’s demands, the Iranians will press ahead with enrichment. I fully realize this delusional zealot doesn’t care how this statement will play in Israel, but I can assure you, his military leaders do. Does anyone truly believe Israel will allow Khamenei’s threat to become reality? Yes, it will take some period of time set the enrichment process in motion, but that only holds true if they truly were not already prepared to do so. Does Khamenei see the EU leaders as so weak that this threat may actually work? Is Iran convinced  the EU is that addicted to their new found trade with Iran? If this threat by Khamenei is nothing more than a bluff, and I don’t think it is, then have they thought about the results of it not working? What is the crazy old man trying to accomplish? Russia is on the verge of gaining ground in the battle of support from the EU and as such, there is no possible chance of Iran gaining support from their so called “Ally”. If Iran is going to threaten the West with the restart of their weapon’s program, a program they stated they never had, then the only logical question is, why? What else may be taking place here? Just how desperate is Tehran?

Going it Alone:

          A conflict between Iran and Israel has only one outcome for Iran. The Iranian list of “ who is with us”, is very……..very short. Hezbollah and perhaps a few slices of Hamas, but I wouldn’t count on that part. Lebanon? Nope. Hezbollah may have the upper hand in Lebanon’s government, but the destruction of Lebanon for the sake of Iran is not going to happen. Russia? Forget Russia. As I have said time and time again, there is money to be made after a devastating war with Israel and Moscow loves to make post conflict money. Really, everyone does! Are their own. That is the reality for the old men in Tehran. On their own and at the end of the conflict most likely completely unable to control the anger of the youth inside the country. Yes, the IRGC has been attempting to build a nationalistic movement with the youth of Iran, but some of us think that is for the post, conflict Iran. Is Iran able to inflict damage on Israel or those that might support them? Yes, and that is exactly why the IDF will not wait until the Iranians are prepared for that level of conflict. Netanyahu’s visit to the EU nations was not about trade. His message was clear. Israel will never allow Iran to restart a program Israel already believes still exist. Iran is threatening to push this crisis to the next level. The old man’s plan is the EU will fold and give Iran as much as it can. That plan is insane. Last week, the statement was made, NATO will not support Israel in a conflict with Iran. Not a single commander or planner in NATO thinks for a single second, Israel would need NATO’s support. The crazy old man’s threat to the UN may make the Progressive Liberals worry, but I can assure you, that same threat worries the Iranian military commanders far more. Let’s see what  idiotic statement comes from Tehran next. PS. I would have loved to have seen the looks on the Iranian Commander's faces when the old man came up with this idea. 

IRAN’S NEXT ROUND OF CASUALTIES:  

          It’s been a few days, but here is the short version of what is taking place with Iran. It appears the so called widening rift between Moscow and Tehran is growing, as if there was ever some Bromance going on. Israel seems to have informed Moscow an Iranian, Hezbollah combat force anywhere near the Israeli border is a legitimate target. Moscow believes the Israelis are uncompromising on this point. Moscow makes the statement, “ All forces should leave Syria”. The attempt there to address the US issue. Problem is, that issue has already been addressed and the compromise has been made between the US and Russia. Therefore, the statement was made for the government of Syria. Problem. Tehran doesn’t agree and they have grown tired of Moscow acting as if they will determine the future of Syria. No Bromance there! Next comes the issue of the Iranian forces not doing as Moscow stated. Did Moscow really think they would? No. Does that open the door for Moscow not supporting them when the IDF strikes them? Yes, why do you think the statement was made. CYA, that’s why. Now, Tehran may be delusional, they may think their forces in Syria can protect themselves, but the Iranian military commanders know better. The bodies being flown back to Iran are proof enough. So, do you order the units to move away from the border or do you put on Syrian uniforms? Problem. The IDF knows this trick and that won’t save the Iranian units. Whose Idea was that, not a military commander’s. Now, the next phase of the problem comes up. The IDF is reported to be building forces along the Syrian border near Quneitra. Buildup? Maybe. For weeks now, the story has been the building Iranian, Hezbollah footprint in the same area. Why would the Syrian government announce this IDF “buildup”? Is it to justify attacking it? That would be insane. The attempt is to once again, place the aggressive blame on Israel. Again, the next part of the problem. Israel doesn’t care if an aggressive label is placed on them. If they move to neutralize the Iranian threat in that region, then that is exactly what they will do.  The next phase of the problem, from the viewpoint of Tehran, is the fact that if Israel moves on the Quneitra area, the US will back them every step of the way. With military support? No. they don’t need to. The IDF doesn’t need the US’s help in crushing Iranian units in Syria. Oh, and by the way, they don’t need NATO’s help ether. What a stupid statement that was, but that’s another story. So Boys and Girls, here is the scorecard. Iran is on the brink of once again getting its assets in Syrian crushed by the IDF and once again, Moscow will sit back and watch. Resupply, it’s a lucrative business in the Middle East. 

          Well, there you have it. The simplistic version of this weeks tension between Israel and Iran….oh ya….and Moscow!

The IDF needs to drop leaflets on the Quneitra area that say only one thing.  “ RUN”!

CHINA 25.... POWER PLANTS AND GENERATION ZEN:

As much as I really wanted to address the issue of Syria and the growing tension between Russia and Iran, I couldn’t overlook an even larger issue. China. As I was reading Asia Times this morning, I came across three articles that really struck me. Perhaps it was the order I read them in or perhaps that’s just what the folks at Asia Times intended.

Made in China 2025:

The first was an update on the “Made in China 2025” plan that Xi has put all of his might behind. If you have not read about this plan, I would suggest you do or you won’t understand what is taking place and is going to take place in the global, economic arena. My version of this story is simple. How can the US force the Chinese to the table on trade issues if the Chinese goal is China goods are primarily for Chinese citizens? If China’s intent is to sell internally, and it is, then why should the care about US made goods? The reality is, the China 2025 plan anticipates a reduction in US, technological goods. Did Trump possibly make the right move when the US came to the table leveraging food production and the growing demand inside China? Is the US capable of slowing China 2025? Yes, they would like to, but can they? Xi’s continued speeches on what is really expansionism continue their / his / vison of world dominance.  Made in China 2025 is a tool. Made in China 2025 is part of a much larger vision. Oh, by the way. Xi may have given his speech on the topic of becoming the leaders in technological development, but the immediate future, the plan still is to buy the companies overseas and send their technology back to China. Just ask the US their two pending law suits. It’s not corporate theft if you by the whole company right?

Microgrids:

               It seems the installation of China’s modern-day version of Roman Outpost / Garrisons /is nearly complete. Independent power for each island location. Each a nearly standalone fighting position. Does anyone remember when these new slices of land popped up on commercial satellite images? The Chinese answer was, “don’t worry. They are nothing more than scientific research locations”. What they failed to say was the “scientific research” was based upon military hardware. Yep. The Devil is always in the details.  The fact of the matter is, these outpost are all part of a much larger vision. Grab the South China Sea and all of it’s resources and control the Littoral lanes. Stack on top of this expansionist step the New Silk Road and the pathway is easy to see.

The Danger Zone:

               Just when I thought reading the Asia Times this morning was going to raise my Dragonphobic levels to new highs, I came upon the Generation Zen article. China has Snowflakes? Can you just imagine Xi’s face when he is told about these kids………………. Millions of them and according to the story, the virus is spreading. How can China become the new Ruler of the 21^st century if the Zen Kids are turning into Teletubbies?  Just when Chinese leaders were about to launch Operation Domination, their children start coming down with an illness that could ruin everything. Passiveness. No desire for world domination. No desire for New Silk Roads. No great Sea Battle Victory celebration over the South China Sea or the Pacific. What in the world is going on here? The next generation of Chinese are turning into human blobs! It must be someone’s fault? It has to be someone’s fault. Who has done this? Xi’s wants answers and he wants a cure and he want’s it soon!

               From day one, some of us have had the theory the Chinese vision had one real fault. Individualism. The plan was to turn China into a huge Capitalistic machine that utilized It’s vast labor market to produce goods far cheaper than the rest of the world. The plan called for this machine to fund the new, modern military and at the same time get the rest of the world so addicted to items from China they couldn’t possibly want to turn off a good thing. Everyone loves their low coast China products. That was the plan. At some date in the future, a future set almost 40 years ago, China would step onto the world stage as the new leader. Xi’ is that leader and that date on the stage was not so far away. But, this theory always had one flaw. In order to defeat the Western Capitalistic Enemy, you had to become like the enemy. The government was prepared for such a risk, but the public, that was the fear. If you start to give a slice of 1.5 Billion people something, then the rest may desire the same. China 2025 and the New Silk Road are now about one thing, keeping the balance. China showed it’s people the other side of the fence and how green the grass was, but now what? The plan was, those that had shown this level of capitalistic greed would be made examples of. After all, this love of materials and wealth was not the Communist Chinese way. Xi’ set out to round up all of those that China had used to reach this stage. Those who desired to seek fame and fortune were identified and placed before the people. China went as far as placing the blame on prominent military leaders. The next phase of China’s drive to the top was here.  It was no longer time to desire a car just like the kids in the US or Europe were driving. The time had come to spark the nationalistic fire! Taiwan was and is the scapegoat, but the goal is not just Taiwan or any other nation that dare to stand in the way of China’s right to the South China Sea. The goal was to launch the next generation of nationalist. The generation that would demand China rule the world. But, at just this moment in history for China, now comes the story of the Zen Generation. The kids born out of the capitalistic times of China.  Ah yes. The Law of Unintended Consequences. Xi’ and his team didn’t anticipate the Chinese Teletubbies. Now what? How can fifty years of planning go up in flames because of Teletubbies? How does Xi stop this virus from spreading? How does he reach the zenith of Nationalism? If this virus is growing as some state it is, then what is to be done? Can he get them to walk into the streets of Beijing and then just drive over them with tanks? It worked in the past, the last time this virus had an outbreak, but that was before social media and China hates social media.

               These Zen kids are under close observation. The Chinese Snowflakes will need to be neutralized somehow. Xi must figure out if these kids have an hope of becoming Nationalist or are they just too passive? If this continues, he will need an “event”. If there is any hope of stopping this virus, it may require the speeding up of the master plan. Scare the little Snowflakes and see if they have a spine. If not, then the real problems begin.

               Dear Taiwan;

                              I would strongly suggest you prepare for more than just overflights. Xi may have a problem and you may become the “event”.

CRISIS NORTH KOREA…… CRISIS IRAN…………..TAKE YOUR PICK!

The Donald ups the stakes with North Korea and announces the US is pulling out of the talks. The Old man of Tehran, Khamenei, places demands, demands, in front of the EU he knows they cannot and will not meet. So, take your pick. What crisis is the most urgent crisis? I have my pick, how about you? As a reminder, both sides of these two stories have a Master, but the difference is, one has a Master that is in the process of betraying their puppet. Okay, maybe both sides are betraying their puppets. Rumors are growing and those rumors surround a theory I’ve had since day one. Rumor. “ The Russians are going to sell out the Iranians and support the concept of  all parties leaving Syria”. Is this rumor true? You can bet the Old Man in Tehran believes so. Iran’s statement about, “nobody can tell Iran what to do” applies to more than just the US’s stance over its nuclear program. The message was directed towards Moscow just as much as it was towards DC and Moscow knows it. The demands the Iranians made of the EU were stunning. The belief that Iran will follow through with it’s threat to restart, as if they stopped, their nuclear program gives Israel the diplomatic high ground. The conversation now shifts from Gaza and the border protest, to the IDF preparing to attack Iran. Will the Russians go to war over the protection of Iran’s nuclear program? No and Iran knows that. Iran’s military leaders know that. Clips yesterday of continued civil unrest in Iran began to show up again in the media, but the statement by the Old Man pulled any media attention that may have been headed to cover those protest. To put it simply, Iran is drawing a Red Line in a dramatic sequence of statements, but it’s a Red Line one nation is more than able to cross if they must. Yes, the Iranian issue is going from bad to worse and for someone to think that The Donald or Netanyahu will back down, well, that’s called having a hallucination.  Oh, by the way. Don’t think for a minute the Iranian military leaders don’t hear the protest. A public that is dissatisfied is a public that will support a coup, a coup that could prevent the destruction of Iran’s military. Moscow will decide the future of the Old Man’s dreams and he has little or nothing to do about it. Spitting on the Tsar’s boots is a very….very bad idea right now.

The Other Puppet Issue:

               Let’s rehash an issue here. Did the Little Fat Guy change the course of the pending meeting with The Donald or did his Masters? My bet is, The Donald and his new team believes this change in stance by North Korea is the work of Puppet Masters. Knowing The Donald’s tactics, did anyone think he was going to let them talk about new demands, demands mind you, and simply come to the table anyway? Yes, the North blew up the tunnels, tunnels that lead to a dead testing center. Yes, the blew up buildings back in 1994 and look what that lead to. Did The Donald anticipate the last minute change? Yes. Did The Donald have a plan incase the Little Fat Guy tried to once again, changed the rules? Yep. Today, the announcement was made the US is not attending. You can bet the war drums will begin to beat louder soon. Brinkmanship. Its been played in the past with the US, but not with a personality like Donald Trump in the White House. Once again, this in on China. Did the Little Fat Guy go rouge or did he do as he was told? In the White House, the answer is clear. Now, let’s see how The Donald turns up the heat. Will China go to war over North Korea? They have before. Do they have more to lose now? Absolutely. Does that mean they will not go to war? One thing is a given. The Chinese have played out the possibilities over and over again. That is what they do. Whatever the next response is from the US, there will be a Chinese response waiting. That price tag on oil keeps going up and the Tsar keeps grinning.

OKAY….WHERE IN THE WORLD IS PRINCE MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN?

               Rumors upon rumors, but one fact stands clear, the event on the 21^st of April at the King’s palace in Riyadh was dramatic. It that was the amount of weaponry used, to include heavy machineguns, the palace guard utilized for one “civilian drone”, then that force is not the force I remember. By the way, I know fist hand how hard it is to shoot down a small drone….. long story.  So, what did happen? The Iranians have spread the story the Prince was shot twice. Was it a coup? Was it an attack by “others”? Is MBS dead? Is he wounded and in hiding? Is he just in hiding?  Not attending the cadet’s graduation at King Abdelaziz military college, that is a big deal. No pictures of him with the US Secretary of State, that is a big deal. Something has happened. Something has changed and who is to blame?

Who Done It?

               It’s solve the mystery time, a mystery we can only speculate took place, but like every good mystery, there are “clues”! Iran? Yes, they are taking lead on spreading the story and even given coverage to a distant, exiled prince. Would the Iranians rejoice at the death of MBS? They already are. So why not consider them as the primary suspect? Simple Watson………. If the Saudi government believed the Iranians designed an attack on the King’s palace in the capital, the war between the two countries would already be in its second month.  Could the Iranians formed or supported a force large enough to fight it’s way into the palace? Would the Saudi intelligence network have not noticed such a event being planned? More importantly, would the Iranian government really want such an event to take place with their fingerprints on it? An act of war. An open act of war? Is that what Iran was looking to accomplish? Does their military show signs of being prepared for full scale conflict? No. Did Iran control this event? No. Okay then, who? Ah, Watson the clue is right in front of you!

               The best of the best inside the Saudi Guard is reserved for the King’s Guard. Those members inside the royal palace were and are not your typical Saudi military members. If a strike on the Royal Family / MBS / would have come while they or he was in transit or at a public place, we might be convinced this was an “outside job”, but this event took place inside the most guarded sight in Saudi, to include Mecca. This was not Al-Qaeda….. this was not the Iranians. This was exactly what many had predicted for over a year. It was a “inside job”! Watson…..... the Family did it!!!!! Somehow, a faction of the Royal Guard must have been persuaded to plot against the Prince and his Father. A faction inside the palace guard that was able to go undetected. How is that possible? How could the Prince and his followers, loyal followers and that might be the key, not detect such an uprising inside the royal guard? Is there a time when the Prince and his Father would have their guard down more than inside the most secured palace? Such an event would have to have one overwhelming advantage…. The element of surprise. Even then, could a trader get close enough to get two shots off into the Prince? The guard detail works in rings of defense. The shot came from a distance or the shots came from up close. Up close would mean a level of betrayal at the highest level. Yes. This was an inside job. Yes such a plan should have been detected, unless those you entrust to “detect” are part of the coup.

Here is the real problem:

               What if this whole theory is true? What if the Prince is truly dead? What does it mean? Last week, the stories of Women’s activist being rounded up in Saudi set off alarm bells, but not in the Western Media. Yes, the Get Trump agenda of the US media is not easily knocked off course, but you would think a story of this magnitude would create some level of interest. The intelligence agencies of the West and Russia and China and Israel would know enough to give some hint. Would the US Secretary of State travel to Saudi so soon after a coup that killed the friend of the White House? If there was an attempted coup and it failed, wouldn’t the Saudi government spin this story in a way to take advantage of the event. Would not a round up of the suspects inside the country take place? Would not some level of blame be placed upon Iran? Did the coup work or not. If there is one golden rule of assassinations, it’s…………………………… Don’t Miss! If this was a miss……………………………….where are the signs? Even more worrisome, if the coup succeeded, where is the announcement? Where is the new leadership? Why is West / US / silent about this event? Why are the rest of the nations of the Middle East, with the exception of Iran, not addressing this issue? Oh, by the way, SPUTNIK, the mouthpiece of Moscow, did post an story about the possible disappearance of the Prince. If this was a coup, it’s the strangest “post coup” environment I’ve seen. If MBS is dead, then hiding that fact is not a plan. If he is critically wounded and his followers are neutral, then some level of a story will have to made pubic soon. The drone statement was simply a panicked reaction to buy time, although I bet there was a drone there to capture the event for some level of confirmation if needed.  The reality is this. Something has taken place in Saudi and that something has something to do with the overall status of MBS. What happened will come out at some point.  What will change in the region is the next real question. Why is everyone so hush….hush…………….. that’s the next act in this Mystery.

NORTH KOREA AND IRAN AND THE BIG STICK! 

So the Little Fat Guy has his staff make it known, North Korea may not attend the meeting with The Donald? Maybe, just maybe, he read Donald’s book, The Art of the Deal. Is he jockeying for a better position? Let’s hope that’s all that is going on here.

 Is he getting push back from his hardline Generals? Remember, several of them have taken rocket rides for the nuclear program not going as planned. Perhaps they believe they have too much invested to just walk away from their work? Although it’s fun and prudent to look at all options, I wouldn’t put much stock in this theory. I would be willing to bet the rocket ride program is still alive and well.

               Is he pushing back on the Dragon’s Master Plan? Would the Little Fat Guy dare to jump the tracks with his Masters in China? I know he’s a little on the crazy side, but if this is a process the Chinese wish to happen and he is making changes at the last minute, then his replacement will have to clean up the mess………………literally…..clean up the mess. Nope. I don’t buy it.

               Was this change in attitude released right on schedule? Was that schedule designed in China? Now, to me, that’s a Dog that can hunt. ( most of the foreign readers may have to look that expression up). If anyone has read The Donald’s book, it’s the Chinese. I would be wiling to bet many of their senior people had it required of them. Some most likely have it memorized or know it better than The Donald. If leadup conditions are now placed on the table, a table the Chinese knew The Donald was banking on for his growing list of accomplishments, then why not change the rules at the last minute? Would any of us not do the same? To the Chinese and to The Donald, this is “Business”, not just international politics. This is about power, and this is about leverage, and this is about MONEY! Does the Little Fat Guy really want to keep his nukes? Does he or the Chinese truly believe the US will accept some version of what took place in 1994? I think the Vice President said it best yesterday. If this last minute switch is designed to make The Donald look bad, then the walk away will be just as dramatic as the North Korean change of position. It’s a silly point in time to be playing this game and it’s a very silly stance to take with the current US President. If the Dragon is looking for more leverage, I hope they are prepared for the very unpredictable reaction they may receive. Did the phone ring between the two leaders, China and US ,that is? You bet. Did The Donald ask, “ what is your little pet doing now”? You bet. Did The Donald say something along the lines of, “ He better come to the table and he better be smiling and you better have his nuclear program gift wrapped next to him”. Yep. Yes, the Chinese are up to something, but they need to be very careful. They need to go back and read the section on walking away from a deal. To The Donald, words mean something. If there is one thing he can’t seem to stand, that is someone saying The Donald talks a good game!

Iran:

               If you want to see how things might turn out if the Little Fat Guy really does stick to his, “ I’m keeping my nukes”, then look at the words addressed to Iran yesterday. When The Donald has his team make the statement, “ The harshest sanctions EVER”, you can bet a plan exist. The list of demands, not starting talking points, that was the last talk from your knees US administration, were astounding to read, even for me. Simply put, the message was, “ Iran….change your ways or else”. Some in the Iranian government even interpreted this as a declaration of war and in some ways, it may very well have been just that. Talk loudly and carry a BIG STICK. Has anyone out there not figured out The Donald’s version of an old US saying? Oh, by the way…………… does anyone truly believe any action by the EU will prevent the IDF from attacking Iran’s program the minute they see it underway again? What do you think those trips to Moscow were truly all about? Why is the US willing to pull out of Northern Syria? All the parades in the world will not save the Iranian military and no one knows this better than the Iranian military leadership.

               So, two message have been sent. One to the Little Fat Guy / North Korea, and really the Chinese and one to the old men in Tehran, and really the Iranian military leadership. If ether of these two nations convenes themselves they can stand up to “ Talk loudly and carry a BIG STICK” attitude of The Donald, well…………………………………………………. Let’s just see how that goes. PS…. If I was responsible for coordinating Iranian Military Parades, I think I would switch my effort over to funeral procession training. My last comment to both North Korea and Iran. Don’t push your luck and go back and read the book!

ISRAEL AND IRAN…………….WHAT NEXT

The IRGC actually fired into Israel? The words used over and over that day were, “ This is unprecedented”. Good grief, when I was interviewed, even I used the words and we all know how I hate to sound like the “Talking Heads”! Here is the problem. It was unprecedented. It was a huge step by the Iranians and it did take the many by surprise. Hezbollah….Hamas or about a dozen or so other groups might be expected, but the IRGC? Yes…… that was “unprecedented”.  So, ask yourself the one question I always go back to. Why and when you start thinking about that, add in, “why now”?

What changed?

               If we can work on, “what changed”, then we will have a better shot at solving the “why” and “why now”. BiBi went to Moscow and as I predicted, returned to Israel just in time to see an “Unprecedented” IDF strike inside of Syria. What words were exchanged in Moscow? What level of trust did the old men in Tehran have as they watched this meeting take place? Trust is a four letter word between the Russians and the Iranians and most of us know it. BiBi comes home and Iranian assets throughout Syria are attacked. BiBi comes home and the “unprecedented” attack by Iran on Israel takes place? So, what changed? Everyone gets to have an opinion, so here is mine. Iran changed and that is a fact. Iran’s leaders, perhaps not all of them, decided the “relationship” between the Russians and the Israelis had reached a point that something had to happen to up the game…… something….. “unprecedented”! Iran has lost it’s patients with the behind the door conversations between the Russians and the Israelis, especially when the topic is Iran’s actions in Syria. Some of Iran’s leadership convinced themselves the time had come to up the stakes for both Israel and Russia, so IRGC rockets were fired into Israel. By the way, there is one huge problem with this Iranian theory, upping the “game” when you are playing with Putin and BiBi is a dangerous gamble. Most of the Iranian sites in Syria understand that now. Once again, where was the superior, invincible, Russian anti-air assets? How is it the IDF, once again, flew their missions with impunity? Once again, how is Tehran supposed to read this lack of Russian support? Allies, right? Well, only here and there.

               What we may have witnessed was the next phase of decay between the Russians and the Iranians. Iran sees the Russians and the Israelis talking and decides to up the game. In response, the Russians continue to sit on their weapon systems as the IDF pounds the Iranian positions in Syria. Where is Assad in all of this you might ask? Don’t bother. He continues to be what he has been, an Eye Doctor siting in a room, waiting for someone to tell him what is going on. The fact of the matter is, the Iranians pushed the envelope and the response was one they were not militarily prepared for.

Conversations:

               For all the parading and media events the Iranian military loves to hold, do the leaders of this military truly believe they can confront the IDF? Those that understand warfare, well, they know the answer. Nipping here and there at the edges of a huge opponent is one thing, but standing toe to toe with them, that would be irrational. When the decision was made to fire into Israel from positions the IDF knew were Iranian controlled, who was in favor of that order and who knew it could be disastrous? Did some of the Iranian field commanders anticipate what might happen and insure their troops were away from potential target sites? I would have. Just who was in on this decision? Soleimani? Did Tehran call him and say, “fire on the Israelis”? If so, what was his response? He is one of the only Iranian military commanders that would be allowed to question the orders from Tehran. Was the strike his idea? I bet not. What was the conversation between senior military leaders when they were away from the old men of Tehran? Was the Iranian military leadership onboard with this “unprecedented” event? Would the risk of total destruction of the Iranian nation be worth following the words of an old man who has never lived in combat? Is his vision, worth the lives of countless Iranian military members and civilians? The answer could be hidden in what didn’t happen. When militaries are in the initial phase of conflict, two things can happen. 1. The conflict can escalate. 2. The conflict can disengage. The disengagement can happen for one of two reasons. 1. One side decides the confrontation is too risky. 2. The two sides quickly come to terms. In this case, option 2 would not happen. Yes, the phones may have rung, with one call being from Moscow and the other from DC. Yes, BiBi may have told Putin the event would be limited…..as long as the Iranian response was acceptable. I don’t believe the phone calls made a difference. I’m betting the disengagement took place because of reason number 1. Once Iran’s military commanders witnessed the speed and effectiveness of the initial IDF strike, at it was just the initial, I would be willing to bet the phone did ring , or the door did open with Generals walking into the old man’s room. “ Do we really want this? Are we really prepared for a war with Israel”? That was the core of the conversation. The IDF pounded Iranian positions in Syria and then……………..nothing!

Give the guy a bone:

               It had to have been difficult to have this conversation with the old men in Tehran. Something had to be placed on the table to provide incentive. The Iranian military leaders knew the US Embassy move was within two weeks. They knew the anger they could leverage inside Hamas. They new the IDF had warned for the protest to not turn violent. A few well placed, Hamas radicals and Iran could turn the event into a world wide condemnation of Israel…..once again. Yes, the Iranian military commanders tossed the old man a bone. Yes, they understood they stood at the precipice of disaster if they responded to the IDF strikes. The Embassy event was the compromise. From the Iranian/ Persian / viewpoint, why not let a few dozen Palestinians be shoot in order to save the Iranian militaries honor. What does the Iranian military rebuild in Syria? What deal are the Russians willing to accept to walk away from Iran’s dreams in Syria? If you thought Tehran was paranoid before the IDF actions, you’ve not seen anything yet. In the mind of the Tsar, why not let a few Persians be blown up, if it means getting your way somewhere else. Pecking order…..it’s all about the pecking order for being killed.