TRUMP SAYS “NO” TO IRANIAN NUCLEAR “DEAL”! NOW WHAT?

As predicted, The Donald did not certify the Iranian nuclear arms pact and the “experts” have been rushing to the news outlets to sell their opinions as fast as they can. So, the questions has been and now is, “so, what now”? First off CNN and MSNBC will have yet another nightly showing of the Trumpophobic  show! While that is taking place, the US Democratic will be rushing down the hallways of Congress to see who can get on TV first as they give their profound statements on what Trump’s actions mean to the nation. All of this is not only predictable and laughable, it’s also worthless to watch. Let’s take an intelligent look at what the Donald’s actions mean, but not the US, but to “others”.

Does it really matter?

Let me make something perfectly clear to anyone out there that doesn’t understand the dynamics of the Middle East. Iran will never…….never….ever… be allowed to possess nuclear weapons! And I say never ever? If I didn’t, I’ll say it again! NEVER EVER! Doesn’t matter what the US signs. It doesn’t matter what the Russians promise. It doesn’t matter how many foaming at the mouth speeches the reading leadership might give. It doesn’t matter how much the North Koreans or any other nations scientist attempt to help the Iranians. It’s never going to happen! The reigning people or those that hate the nation of Israel can listen to all the speeches they want to. They can have old men stand at podiums and talk about the destruction of the nation of Israel. It won’t matter! The nation of Israel will never allow the Iranians to possess nuclear weapons! Now that we understand that, let’s move on to a topic that’s probably far more important given today’s decision by the United States leadership. The Iranians delusional enough to state they will now move their program for?

Iran’s Decision:

All the talk today, after president trumps decision, seem to center around the issue that the United States Congress must now decide the fate of the Iranian nuclear weapons agreement. As I stated above, that’s a completely false assumption. There is a far more important decision to be made and it’s not one that will take place in the United States. How Iranians react? Who will try and influence their reaction? How will those that support the Iranians respond to today decision? These are far more important questions then making comments and speculations about the U.S. Congress. Logically the first decision that must be made, must be made by the Iranians. Howell words given from the bully pulpit are meaningless. After all the emotional speeches are finished, what will the Iranians do? It seems they have 60 days to figure that out. Sometime inside that 60 day window, you will see a dire warning from the Israelis addressing the Iranians and the options they must contemplate. The Iranians know better than anyone else that the Israelis do not pay attention to words as much as they do physical actions.

This is not New “News”:

The Iranians, the Russians and just about everyone else has been anticipating today’s decision. Courses of action, based upon the decisions of United States, have been under development by every single nation that could be impacted by this agreement. Conversations between nations, especially with the United States, have been going on for weeks. The EU’s sympathetic approach towards the Iranians has most likely follow up on deaf ears at the White House. As for Moscow, the Czar has been willing to trade away the Persians from day one. Europe, more specifically, Eastern Europe, that is the Brass Ring Russians seek. Let The Donald place NATO expansion on the table and you can watch the Iranian nuclear program go away overnight. So you see, the anticipation of the US’s decision today has been in play long before the announcement the media is going crazy over right now.

Who holds the “High ground”:

Think of this entire discussion over Iranian nuclear weapons development from a unique but typical stance. Who holds the high ground? Who really negotiates this dangerous topic from  an overwhelming advantage point? Answer? The United States! Who understands this as this negotiation period Now moves forward? Yep! The Donald! Yes, I know, all the liberal media is abuzz with yet another rumor that the commander-in-chief of the United States top military advisers are against killing the Iranian weapons program deal! To that I simply answer, BS! What the United States military brass has most likely informed their commander-in-chief is the fact that the Israelis have a trigger point for the Iranian nuclear weapons program.” Mr. President. If the Iranians decide to move forward with their program they are X amount of days away from operation weapon. The Israelis will take action against that program no later than X amount of days prior to that anticipated operational weapons date”. That Is probably as close as you can get to the true concerns of the United States military senior leadership if you’re looking for an issue with this entire Iranian nuclear weapons deal. If they were asked, and they probably were, what is the recommendation, their answers would be based upon the scenarios that they believe might happen. There is one thing that every senior military commander in United States understands. The Israelis will never allow the Iranians to have functional nuclear weapons program. So today, the Donald set into motion a process most had already anticipated. The announcement was only the next move in this chess game. Anticipated reactions by the Iranians and their supporters were factored in before this final decision was made. Having said that, you never really know your opponents next move until they actually make it. Let me end this post by reiterating my initial statement. Iran will never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. Durand needs to understand the physics of this event. 1650c …………If you live in Iran…………look it up!!! Your leaders may have it in your future.  

TURKEY AND THE WEST. IS IT TIME TO REALIZE WHAT IS TAKING PLACE?

So the Sultan will not “recognize” the US Ambassador as the official representative of the US in Turkey? Well, I’ve said this before and I will say it again and again…………..Erdogan is a mentally Ill! Yes…He’s a nutcase…thus the reason I call him Egodan! In the course of a week, the Turks have taken several deliberate steps to thumb their nose at the US. Why you may ask? If you have to ask that question, then you’ve not been following this nutcase for over thirteen years now. If Egodan is anything, he’s a dreamer. A man who has a fantasy of the new Ottoman Empire and of course he’s the Sultan of this imaginary world. But why now? Why all the uptick in this strained relationship?

The Puppet Master:

Who is the Puppet Master? If you have followed my posting for the past few years, you know exactly who I’m referring to……. You know...... The Tsar.  Could the phone ring next to Egodan’s bed and the Tsar simply give him his marching orders for that that day? No! Can the Tsar manipulate multiple issues with key inputs at just the right time to make the Puppet in Ottoman Land dance the Pirouette? As a matter of fact, he does it with more than just Egodan! He’s even has The Donald Jumping around at predictable moments in the movement. So, what was the issue this week that lead to the Sultan to once again take a slap at the US? Was it the meeting of the Saudi’s in Moscow? Was it the fact the Kurds are still receiving “support” from the West? Did Egodan just have some bad Turkish coffee this week?

Shifts in Power:  

How did the Sultan interpret the Saudi meeting in Moscow last week? Everyone knows the Saudis are a ripe plume the Tsar is more than willing to pluck away from the West. Oil, location and the ability to control the flow of funds into the Sunni groups…….groups that worry the Tsar. Could it be the Sultan was trying to show the Tsar the Turk’s increasing distancing from the West? Was the Sultan jealous of the Saudi visit? Sound crazy, well, crazy is the box that sits between Egodan’s ears! Never expect rational actions out of irrational people. The Saudi meeting in Moscow has all the “Experts” talking about the continuing “Power Shift” in the Middle East and to some extent they are correct. As they always have, times are changing! Old alliances are just that, “old”! New alliances are always shaky and full of doubt. But, here is what we all need to remember as it’s a much greater issue that Egodan making yet another mystifying statement. In the history of global power, powers based on alliances, the shifting of such alliances is almost always the real indication of dangerous times ahead. What we see taking place with Turkey has been slowly going on for over ten years now. That said, new shifts are now taking place and more irrational leaders are showing up on the playing field. All of that can only lead to one conclusion, we are sailing deeper in to very stormy waters! 

TRUMP’S, CALM BEFORE THE STORM” STATEMENT?

The word began to react today, those that were paying attention, to the words of The Donald. “The Calm before the storm”? To the guy who is still upset with the actions of the spoiled Jocks in the NFL, that statement probably didn’t even register. To a guy like the Tsar, his classic grin may have appeared on his face. To the liberal left, it was just another sign the White House is occupied by a crazy man. Finally, to the military leadership in the room, one of whom I know, it was a statement that made their phones blow up as soon as the word got out. Oh ya, to me? Well, to me it means one thing. The Donald is driving certain world leaders crazy and I’m not sure that is a bad thing.

“Don’t Test me”:

Whose more “ Macho” the Tsar or The Donald? Who feels like the other guy is getting all the macho, style points? Who is watching a Master Statesmen out maneuver him in the world of international affairs? Who has the leadership of the Middle East knocking on his door asking for a new found friendship? One last one. Who is not used to, nor comfortable with, someone else being the better businessman, on all fronts?

The Donald doesn’t like to lose. He doesn’t like, “Bad Deals”. That is not how he made his fortune and fame. Every day he wakes up only to hear of some new slick maneuver by the Tsar. To a guy like The Donald, that gets old real……real…..fast. In the middle of all of this, two pest continue to distract The Donald. Two third level nations continue to eat up his time and continue to have the liberal media hounding him. Yep. North Korea and Iran. It’s bad enough he can’t shake the ludicrous and completely unfounded story of some type of “deal” with the guy he can’t seem to keep up with, but he has these two issues nipping at his heels. There’s one way to show the guy that you’re envious of that you’re just as good as he is, and that is to make bold and rash statements that catch everyone’s attention. In a way it could very well be The Donald’s statement of, “Calm before the storm”, as a way of saying, “see there. I’m a hard ass just as much as you are”! I know all this seems far-fetched, but were talking about a person that is pretty far-fetched.

The Reaction:

I made the statement earlier about a grin coming across the face of the Czar.I did so understanding that he would’ve expected just such a reaction from the US president, his so-called friend and comrade. Pupils interaction future King of Saudi Arabia this week, yes the current King went along for the ride, was yet another message to the west more specifically, the United States. The future of the Middle East continues to be shaped by the decisions made in Moscow and there seems to be little the West can do about it. That has to be frustrating to more than just the US president. As an example, one has to wonder what the conversations were inside the Iranian capital when Saudi showed up in Moscow. Yes the Iranians knew the Saudis are going to see the Czar and yes the radians probably fully have anticipated the future King is building an alliance with the Russians. What does that hold for the Iranians? What deals will the Tsar cut the Saudi king and will Iran have any influence on any of the agreements?

If The Donald wanted to stir discontent between the Russians and the Iranians, at a moment in time when the Persians true enemy was in a meeting with their puppet master, then why not leak the information that the Iranian nuclear accord was not going to be approved? Is the timing of these two events, the meeting in Moscow and the statement by the US president a coincidence? My opinion? I don’t believe in coincidences when it comes to international affairs. The Donald in a chess match with a world champion player. Worse yet, this world champion player is reportedly the mentor of his current opponent. The Czar continues to make the game even more complicated as The Donald struggles to keep up. This was a rash and confusing statement US president has made. The huge question becomes, was it truly a warning? The Donald is more than capable of playing brinksmanship, but the question becomes is he truly thinking his way through the process? I would’ve loved to herd the conversations amongst the US military leaders after that meeting with their commander-in-chief was over.

SAUDI ARABIA AND WOMEN DRIVING CARS? WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Okay. I like to read Pepe’s stuff and this article is a fairly hard statement about what may be taking place in Saudi. The one thing I did get lost on was…………..where did the story go about Women driving cars? When I first saw the announcement,  I had a mental picture of the roundabouts in Saudi! Look, it’s bad enough to navigate a simple roadway there, but when you get the Mad Max Roundabouts and you know that almost every drive in that swarming Bee’s Hive is a Saudi male, it’s hard to get up the courage to drive forward into the abyss. Now……………….to that…………add Saudi Women drivers……..drivers who have never driven…………….drivers who are most likely visually impaired for religious reasons!!!! My prediction is, if someone opened a website that was just Roundabout cameras 24/7, you would get a million hits a day. If you think watching Russian dash-cam clips on YouTube is fun………….you just wait! Who can drive? When can they drive? That may be the Devil in the Details that saves the streets of Saudi from becoming, if you can believe it, far worse than they already are.

Alright. Enough about Saudi’s predicament with Driving Ms. Daisy. Let me go back and take a look at Pepe’s real issue in this story; The House divided in Saudi…… The concept of the Kingdom having a violent change. Is that really in the wings? Is the Saudi Kingdom in that much trouble?

I’ve addressed the topic before of the so called “Young Prince” / MBS. Is he the power hungry Roya some make him out to be? How many of the Royals are not power hungry? Is he the reason the CIA allegedly “upset”? By the way, you would be amazed at how well the CIA plays every side of every angle. Is MBS driving the Saudi Kingdom into a crisis? Here is one for ya. How about the idea the young Prince is trying desperately to insure Saudi’s survival?

Surrounded by “inexperienced Thirty Year olds”, that’s Pepe’s view. My view…………I hope so, or at least I hope he has a mixture of new and old next to him. If the ratio is out of balance, then it will be business as usual in Saudi.

Family:

Is there a Family element to the potential troubles in Saudi? Yes. Is that new? No! Is it more prevalent this time around? Yes. Does that mean a “bloodbath” is going to take place? No. Here is my answer to the question of resistance to the future King. The current King’s wishes are the rule of the land. That is how the nation has been run and that is how it’s run now. Now, the argument is, MBS manipulated a mentally failing King to jump to next in line. Again. Anything new here? No. Here comes the fun part to watch in all of this. Fun and dangerous. Dangerous because desperate nations can do desperate things.

Sides:

Sides! Who is on whose side? According to Pepe and others, the CIA sides with the Nayef, the guy that got tossed out by MBS! So, where does that leave the Russians? Does anyone think for a minute the Tsar is not a stake holder in this game of Thrones? How important is Saudi to Russia? Very. Is it all about the oil? Not entirely. The Middle East is a Chessboard and the Tsar loves to play the game at that level. What can be done to aggravate the West? What makes the West squirm? Did the Russians have their fingers in the move by MBS? How could they not have? Even if they didn’t, would the CIA think they didn’t? Hey, by the way, does the current team at the CIA get along with The Donald? Now, there is an argument for another day. Who does the Dirty Work for the “Deep State”? Is the Deep State issue in the US just like the issue of “Power” in Saudi right now? There’s another great conversation I won’t have given I don’t want my blog page to come up missing!

How bad is it?

Is the government of Saudi Arabia in real trouble? Is someone going to try to inflame the radical religious elements in Saudi? Is the issue of softening the social status in Saudi going to be the stick used against the future King? Can someone turn Saudi into Syria? If so, who would get the blame and what would the Future King do about it? Be thinking Iran here and not Russia. Putting pressure on young Salman will not go over well. Thinking the Iranians and the CIA are behind that pressure will not go over well.  Who does he turn to? Who makes the threat far more complicated? Let see how the meeting between the current King and the Tsar goes. That will give us a hint…. A hint of something I already believe.  Ah yes... The Saudi version of Game of Thrones! 

http://www.atimes.com/article/wheels-deals-trouble-brewing-house-saud/

THE DEATH OF LT. GENERAL ASAPOV. HOW AND WHAT COULD IT MEAN?

A few days ago a Russian three-star general was killed in Syria. His role was that of, “an advisor”! Now, I spent a large part of my career, “advising”, but I can’t remember a three-star general, in the field, as an advisor. Yes, Russians do do things differently and the idea of a three-star general being in the forward danger zone of a conflict is not new to the Russians. I’m with the story is, no one really believes that General Asapov was, “an advisor”! General Asapov was most likely what most three-star generals are, a commander of troops, Russian Troops! So, why was this matter? The story itself didn’t even show up in the Western media.

The notification:

In Moscow, the notification had been made to Putin along with the details of how the event took place. How does a three-star general get killed in action by indirect fire? How was it that the, “enemy” could target a location effectively that has a Russian three-star general operating? Short version, “how did they find him”? These are probably just a few of the questions Russian president asked of his military staff. Contrary to Western media coverage, loss of a Russian three-star general is a big deal! It’s an event the Russian president will not simply turned his back to.

Definitions of the word “Enemy”:

Daesh? What is the Russian definition of a member of Daesh? In case you have forgotten, it’s anyone who’s fighting the Syrian government. The Russians know full well that their definition encompasses any and all factions supported by the West, namely the United States. Though, think about it for a minute. When someone walked in the room and advised present Putin he had lost a three-star general, what were his thoughts? The countless discussions and unofficial agreements between the US and the Russians, on the topic of Syria, are so numerous and so convoluted, it is difficult to believe that any hard fast understanding of roles and responsibilities could prevent what took place. The intelligence required to locate and target the Russian three-star general would be a difficult task. Yes, it is happened time and time again with Iranian senior military leaders, but I would be willing to bet the Russians were suspect of the intelligence provided to make those attacks happen as well. If you really want to cut to the chase, the Russian president may be sitting in Moscow wondering how it is the Americans would be so bold as to target a Russian three-star general in the field? If that hypothesis sounds ridiculous to you, that I would submit that your knowledge of Putin’s mindset is not as good as you might think it is. The fact of the matter is, the Russians lost a three-star general in Syria! How they lost him and who was responsible for questions they would to get the facts for what they will make assumptions! Communications between the US and the Russians must be taking this is not his name general place as I write this. At least I hope so! 

KURDISH BID OF “INDEPENDENCE” AND THE SUM OF ALL FEARS!

From day one of the Arab Spring, many feared one outcome. Kurdistan! I addressed this over six years ago and I’ve never come off center on the topic. The Kurds! No group has manipulated more than the Kurds. Loyal to the West before and during Desert Shield and Storm. Loyalty that lead to them being gassed. When ISIS was on the march in Iraq, what one group stood in their way? Who held the line? Yep, the Kurds! Have the Kurdish groups placed bombs in New York? Have they hijacked aircraft? Have they made gruesome videos of Westerners having their heads sawed off? If you know the Kurds, then you know the answer to all of these questions.

PERSIANS AND OTTOMANS:

The destabilization of Iraq and Syria meant only one thing to the Iranians and the Turks. It’s one of the very few issues the Ottomans and the Persians have in common. The fear of the Kurds! The fear of a new nation called, Kurdistan! Both the Turks and Iranians own land the Kurds lay claim to and you can toss in Syria and Iraq while you are at it. The loss of land is valid reason to go to war and war is exactly what the Iranians and the Turks are willing to risk to prevent Kurdistan. Not only are the Ottomans and the Persians willing to risk war, the rest of the world believes their threats. Here is where it gets real complicated. Nether the Turks or the Iranians are willing to trust each other over the issue of the Kurds. They both want the nightmare of Kurdistan to go away and they are both willing to go to extreme measures to insure it never takes place, but how do they do that without risking the “other side” coming out on top? You see………………the Turks and the Iranians don’t like each other. The history of the Ottomans and the Persians is not a one of cooperation! Neither side wants the Kurds to form a nation state, but neither side is willing to let the other side gain a possible advantage in the region. So, it comes down to this. How do the Ottomans and the Persians deal with the issue of the Kurds with the real end- state being not letting the other guy be seen as the hero? No joint victory here! There is no room on the spotlight stage when it comes to the Sultan of Turkey! Oh……..by the way……….did I mention the Kurds are Sunni? What are the Turks……for the most part? What’s taking place in the region? Oh ya…. A religious, faction, Civil War.

PROXY:

Conflict by “proxy”. That is the 20^th and now 21^st Century way of large nations doing business. If the Kurds need to be neutralized, send in the Proxy fighters. Who are the proxy fighters for the Iranians? Shia Militias! What are the Kurds? Sunni?  Can anyone see where this is heading? Will the GCC support Shia Militias fighting the Kurds in Iraq, Syria, Iran, Tukey? Are the Saudis willing to let the Turks, a declared Ally, stand by and watch fellow Sunni’s be wiped out? How much satisfaction would the Saudi’s gain from observing the Kurds, tremendous fighters by the way, drive Iran crazy? Hint, all of this has been going on for several years now.

Proxy groups are the flavor of the day in the Middle East and that is not going to change. The issue of the Kurds and their drive for independence has been on the radar from day one. It’s the one thing the Turks and the Iranians truly fear. Does the issue of Kurdistan drive two old rivals into some type of delusional alliance? Who would that upset? How would it really unfold? How would the Sunni Arabs react? In just a few days, the Kurds are going to vote. No one is going to acknowledge the outcome. No one is going to stand up for the Kurds. Even those who would will be neutral at best. Here is where the Russians come in. The Iranians cannot be allowed to crush the Kurds. It’s up to the Russians to keep that from happening. As for the Turks! Well, Egodan, as I call him, see things one way. His way! If all that happens on the 25^th is a proclamation, a proclamation no one will recognize, then the Kurds will have to force the issue. Then what? A day doesn’t go by that the Middle East Region doesn’t become more and more complicated……………………….dangerous! 

THE RUSSIAN/ CHINA PLAN FOR NORTH KOREA. “ PLATA O PLOMO”?

The new Silk Road is the answer? “Joint the club and make money”? Is that the concept the Russians and the Chinese have come up with for North Korea? Enticement? http://www.atimes.com/article/russia-china-plan-north-korea-stability-connectivity/

I have to admit, when I read this article, I had to smile. It’s a seen right out of the God Father movies.  No surprise here. The intent of the Russians as well as the Chinese is to keep the US / West / from finding its own answer for the North Korean issue. War on the Korean Peninsula is not an option for the Chinese or the Russians; or the South Koreans for that matter. So, let’s get all sides to sit down, with the exception of the US, and let’s talk what really matters. MONEY!

Yes, the allure of the new Silk Highway allowing the Korean Peninsula to be united, at least along economic lines, could be a tempting approach to the crazy fat guy in the North. Telling a story of, “we can all make money and all these hard feelings will go away”, that sounds enticing. Even the Japanese came to the table, or they came to listen that is. On the surface, it sounds like a “Great Deal”! So, what happened? Why didn’t the Hermit Kingdom jump on the deal? What “downside” could they possibly see? The fact of the matter is, they did turn it down, for now as they put it. Why? Why for now? What other goal other than survival as a nation might they have? To the Russians / Putin/ the response must have been puzzling! Who turns down “deals” from the God Father? More importantly, who sleeps at night knowing they said “no” to the Don?

Carrot and the Stick:

Did the Russians and the Chinese come up with this “deal” in a true collective? Was this truly a Russian / Chinese plan? Did the Tsar come up with the idea and the Dragon simply said, “Okay….let’s see what they say”. Do either of these countries only offer Carrots? Does anyone think this offer was made with no mention of the “Stick”? What else may have been communicated to the North Koreans when this offer was made? If the concept was openly covered, what about the alternative?

PLATA O PLOMO:

Is the Tsar and the Dragon “Plata O Plomo” kind of of leaders? Oh….most of you have no idea! What is Plata O Plomo you might ask? For those of you who don’t know, in Mexico, when a Drug Gang ask the locals to do something, the presentation is simple. “ Plata O Plomo”! Silver or Lead….. you choose! Was this a Plata O Plomo moment for the little fat guy in North Korea?  I would be willing the unofficial message came as soon as the North said, “ Not right now”! The little fat guy needs to learn Spanish quickly. Something tells me that was his ONLY “Plata” offer he will get. His successor will get the same offer. If that offer has already been made and the next “Great Leader” has said “Si”, then the little fat guy may be have another old saying coming. “ Tonight, he sleeps with the Fishes”!