RAMZAN KADYROV AND “REAL SPORTS” WHAT WAS THE REAL SCARY PART?

When I first read that Home Box Office / HBO / Real Sports program had pulled off an interview with the Warrior Kadyrov, and make no mistake, that is what he is, I had to ask myself, “why? Why did Kadyrov agree to such a stunt? The first thing that popped in my head was the most obvious. The Tsar! Putin had just completed a four part series, one I wrote about, with Oliver Stone and Showtime, HBO’s competition. Would the Tsar care if Showtime and HBO were in competition? I bet he doesn’t even know much less care. So, what was the reason behind Kadyrov’s interview? Yes, he is out to corner the Fighting Games world market, but would that selfish goal be enough to be interviewed? Would Moscow condone the interview if it were just based on the issue of a Sporting program? Didn’t really make sense to me.  Well, then I did what I should have done from the beginning. I watched the segment on HBO.

GAYS IN CHECHENIA:

Was that it? Was HBO trying to make a point about how Kdyrov is Homophobic? Really? That was the punchline of the HBO interview? As if he cared someone labeled him in that way. Hell, the guy wore the statement like a badge of honor!  Chechenia is a land of ruthless Warriors who loving nothing more than to fight? Did HBO really think that was news to the rest of the world? Kadyrov is mentally unbalanced? Was that part of HBO’s message? Again, someone show the nation that didn’t have this impression already. Chechenia’s “Purge” of Gays was going to ruin Kadyrov’s dream of owning the world’s Mix Martial Arts Fighting program? To HBO, that might be the whole point of the program. Is HBO trying to cut Kadyrov off before his dominance in the sport takes place? Is HBO getting ready to try to corner the market on broadcasting the major MMA fights? Lord knows Boxing is on the downward slide and has been for several years and HBO is heavily invested in boxing. So, what this story about the Homophobic Chechen Leader, or was it about the future of HBO’s sports and the profit lines?

BACK TO THE QUESTION:

Alright. The issue of why HBO wanted this segment is interesting to some, but the much more important issue is, once again, why? Why did Kadyrov allow this spectacle on HBO? Yes, the Tsar knows the fight games are near and dear to his Pitbull’s heat and perhaps the opinion was, “so what? Why not let him have the interview”? Nope! I don’t buy it. Timing. The timing was just all wrong. To have such a controversial interview take place within weeks of the Tsar’s interview, that just seems suspicious to me.  Putin have to have seen some value in the interview. He had to have some opinion on it impacting his overall plan for Russia. The only other option is to accept that he just didn’t care. Again, I don’t buy it.

THE MESSAGE:

What is Chechenia? What does it mean to the Tsar? Geographically, it’s a very small slice of Russia. It’s standing Army is nothing more than a token fighting force in terms of defending Russia. Or is it? Does it? That answer depends on who the enemy is? Can Chechenia defend Russia from the US or China or NATO? No. Not even close. So, why worry about this slice of land? Why invest so much time and capital on Chechenia? Well, Chechenia is much more complicated than that. It’s not the geographical location that the Russians care about. It’s who they are. The gateway of Muslim Fundamentalism into the heartland of Russia is where? Why did the Russians fight so hard in the two Chechen wars? Why did Putin work so hard to win over Ramzan’s Father? What’s the best way to fight Muslim Radicals? With Russian, Orthodox Catholics? No. Why not develop a way to have Muslim’s killing Muslims? Who better understands the real drive behind most radical leaders? Power. They all lust for power! Putin developed a way to get Chechen Rebels to kill Muslim Rebels! Once he had this process underway, why not extend the concept into the heartland of the enemy? Why not set the game so that Muslims were killing Muslims on Muslim land, not Russian soil? Those that love to fight would beg to go to where the fighting is taking place. Does anyone remember Ramzan’s commitment to sending his Warriors into Syria? A battle for the control of the Muslim Faith is a perfect distraction for a land of men who love to fight. “Let him have his interview. Let him have his fight games. As long as he is killing Muslims and those Muslims are not bombing buildings in Moscow, who cares”? Are those more or less the words of the Tsar? What Chechnya is to Russia is tool. What the men of Chechenia are to Russia is cannon fodder. Something to toss into the meat grinder, a meat grinder they love to jump into, just as long as the trouble doesn’t land inside Russia Proper. Did the Tsar even pay attention to the interview? I hope so, because at the very end, Ramzan said something the Tsar may or may not have wanted him to so.

THE “WOOPS”?

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the interview series Putin did with Oliver Stone and Showtime. In that review, I made note of Putin’s comment after watching the movie Doctor Strange Love. Rumors. I talked about the long standing rumors of the Russians having a type of Doomsday network. As a matter of fact, it’s a big player in the book I’m writing. So at the end of the interview with Ramzan, he makes a comment that stopped my train of thought. ‘Even if the government is taken out, the nuclear missiles will still launch’! What? Why would the leader of such a small slice of land know such a thing? Just how close would Putin and Ramzan have to be for him to be told such a thing? Better yet, why did this topic come up? For one thing, they said it took place at 2am and you have to wonder how much the Warrior Leader had had to drink by then. Oh…ya….I know…He’s a Muslim…..He doesn’t drink! Right. I wish I had a bottle for every Muslim I’ve spent time with that didn’t drink?  So, Ramzan was responding to a comment made to him about the relationship between the US and Russia? Why would he answer in such a way as to indicate a deep …..deep….secret his good friend the Tsar may have let him in on? Was it a “Woops” moment? Here is a far more freighting point to ponder. It’s the same “Woops” the Tsar had with Oliver Stone. Two “Woops” moments in just two very unusual interviews? We are talking about the most calculating man in the world today. No. Not Ramzan. Putin! What is going on here? What’s the message the Tsar is sending to the US? Could it be, he no longer cares what the US or the West thinks of him? Could it be, in his mind, the time is come that he does want he wants, when he wants? Ramzan is a very different type of “Leader”. He is the loyal Pitbull of the Tsar. Can a Pitbull be trusted forever or do you only keep them around while you need them? 

CHINA AND THE “WHAT IF” GAME AND WHAT I LIKE TO CALL, "RESET"! 

Well, I took off the last two weeks so I could accomplish something around the house other than banging on the keyboard. But, back to work now.

Okay, it’s time to play my favorite game. The one I’ve used on this site for over six years now. Yes Boys and Girls, it’s time for the “What if” game! So, here we go.

The new Silk Road program. Not really trying to solve the North Korean issue. Placing military forces in Africa. Pushing deeper into the South China Seas. I could list more, but let me stop there and get to the heart of this episode of “ What If”.

What if?

What if the new Silk Road project, the most expensive and expansive endeavor in the history of the trading world, was nothing more than a prelude to a much more sinister plot? Right about here is where the Conspiracy Theory followers really start to salivate.

What if?

What if the Dragon’s unwillingness to table the North Korean issue was the goal all this time?

What if?

What if the Dragon’s goal was to allow North Korea to obtain nuclear weapons and drive the West mad with fear?

What if?

What if the idea of North Korea partnering with another menace to the Western World, Iran was part of the Dragon’s plan?

What if?

What if Chinese leadership, their own version of the “Deep State”, Yes  there is  such a thing, truly believed they could not only survive another Word War, but they could win the race back to prosperity?

What if?

 What if the Chinese believed they could win the “Reset” of the world’s trading process, but they could control the future of all of it?

What if?

What if the Chinese believed they could control the next world war and insure the physical damage to China proper or at least keep that damage to a minimum?

It’s sometime in the near future. The North Koreans have obtained not only Ballistic, Nuclear capabilities, but they have supplied the bomb building process to the Iranians? Hint. Some of this has already happened.

In this “near future” the New Silk Road, the infrastructure part, is operational. Ports depend on the Chinese network. Shipping depends on Chinese networks. Raw material production depends on the Chinese. Sometime in the near future, the world trading process depends on the Chinese. Are we not there now?

So, what is stopping the next Empire from taking its place on the Throne? For the most part, is the world not already there? Not just yet. There is one minor issue. One stumbling block to the Dragon’s Dream. The militaries of the West, namely, the US. Oh, by the way. If you truly believe the Russians would trust the Dragon to the point of capitulating their future to them, thing again. The ability of China’s adversaries to strike back. The ability to damage the “Reset” concept. That is what is stopping them, for now. Would they have anticipated this obstacle? Yes. Would a race of people who think of plans in terms of hundreds of years not have an answer to the one barrier to what they believe is their destiny?

So, in the not so distant future, another section of the world goes to war. A section of the world many believed would bring about the end of the Human Race. Yes. The Middle East. Most would even say, “It is written”.  In that not too distant war, the Dragon sets in motion the fall of Western, Christianity’s influence over the world’s trading centers. When the dust settles, the West and its dependence on Just in Time Vending, the internet and goods made somewhere else has left them in ruins.

Out of the Ashes, comes the survivor. The one that stockpiled items like satellites, and raw materials. The one that has the means of restarting world trade and the one who can shut down the World Wide Web. Yes. The Dragon.

Sound crazy? Okay.

Sound Illogical? Okay

Sound paranoid? Okay

In the end, the world is made up of three kinds of nations.

Those that cannot stop or impact a Word War.

Those that believe War may come and they should be ready.

And those that plan Wars to move their cause forward.

You pick the one that fits the Dragon.

IRAN AND MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN. JUST HOW DANGEROUS IS THIS?

Well, I took the last week or so off and now it’s time to talk about someone I’ve been watching for a few years now. Prince Bin Salman! Not the first time I’ve commented on this very interesting figure. What changed? What made me come back to his status? What made him important enough to talk about given all the other things taking place in the world? Simple. The Persians!

Is it new news the Persians don’t like him? Is it new news they don’t trust him? Is it new news they are worried about his actions? No on all accounts. So, why the trip back down memory lane on the topic? Here is why. Syria, the Russians, the Turks, the Jordanian, the Egyptians  and most importantly, the Israelis. 

Decisions being made:

I’ve said this time and time again, but it’s worth repeating over and over. Decisions are being made about the future of the region and the Iranians are not getting a vote, at least they don’t believe so. Moscow is calling the shots and the perception the Tsar is working with the Persians is just that, a perception. Smoke! Does Moscow care what Tehran says? No. Does the Tsar factor in what is good for the Persians? Nope! Have I said this a dozen or more times in the past two years? Yep! Is the situation with the Iranians getting worse and nobody really sees it? Yep! Why? Why is it getting worse? Moscow? That’s part of the answer. The new US leadership? That’s part of it. The new future King in Saudi? That’s part of it. The growing rift in leadership inside of Iran? Yep. That’s part of it. The fear that that Iran is in real trouble? Yep. Look. At the end of the day, inside the rooms where the old men in Tehran hangout, the picture of the future is not very bright. Then, the worst of all news takes place. The young Prince in Saudi makes his move and it becomes very clear to Tehran the future just got much dimmer. It’s not a good time in Iran and the Old Guard is not happy!

Aggressive vision:

 Have the leaders of Iran had an aggressive vision for years? Yes! Does the future King of Saudi have an aggressive vision for Saudi? Yes. Who is more aggressive? Who is more energetic? Who has fewer obstacles in his way? Yep. The future King. Who knows this to be true? Yep. The old men in Tehran. Who can they truly count on to counter this future King? Iraq? No. Syria? What Syria? Syria doesn’t exist anymore. The Dragon? The Dragon could care less about the Persians other than what do they own the Dragon may want and how many Chinese can be employed inside of Iran. Who’s on the Iranian’s “Friends List” that really matters? North Korea? Yes! Is that a bad thing? Oh yes……………a very bad thing. What can North Korea do about the future King? Nothing. Nothing unless Iran’s nuclear program with North Korea provide Iran with a bomb to hold over the King’s head. Good luck with that concept!

Just not going well:

I’ve said it before, but things are just not going well for the Persians and the Old Men know it. Internal pressure is building and the weak friends list is growing weaker. On top of all of that, place a future King who has Iran on his hit list and you have a recipe for Hyper Tension pushing Old Men’s health to the limit. Who is the next real leader of Iran? Who is going to attempt to hold the revolutionary line? When Chavez died, the idiot who took over Venezuela was doomed from day one. Who can hold Iran together when the Old Man dies? Keep an eye on the one true hero of Iran. If you don’t know who I am talking about you need to read more. It’s coming!  

PUTIN AND TRUMP FINALLY HAVE THAT BEER!

The US media is running around in circles with their hair on fire. The Donald and Mr. Putin are going to meet! It’s happening……it’s finally happening! The left of left CNN is almost challenging The Donald. They are just about threatening him that he better take a hard stance with the Tsar or it will prove he was in bed with him, bad image I know, from the very beginning. It’s all been a grand plan to get The Donald in the White House and now the Tsar is going to press a button on his watch and The Donald turns into a mindless robot with a Moscow sticker on his forehead. If The Donald smiles, it’s on! He was a plant and the loony left in the US will believe it!

Where’s the Beef?

The first meeting? The first face to face meeting! Okay……………….so what? Does anyone think for a minute these two have not talk over issues dozens of times? Does anyone think they have not talk over critical issues time and time again? For all we know they are suto  Twitter pals. Really, that would not surprise me one bit.

So, what is this all about? What is all the hype over them meeting face to face for the “first time”? The public. That is what the hype is all about. The public gets to see them together and for some reason that is important. Whose public? The US? The Russian? The Iranians? The Chinese? The Turks? Europe? Yes. Yes to all. So, it’s a photo op? Yep. It’s a photo op! So, they are not really addressing important issues, just taking pictures? No. Symbolism is the issue for the photo shoot and then……………move on! Is it possible for the two of them to meet without anyone knowing it? Yes. Is that what took  place? Absolutely! If may have already taken place. A continuation of topics that the two of them have been talking for months, that is what is taking place or going to take place. Here is the fun part!

Play the Game!

So, The Donald has to show that he was, “hard” on Mr. Putin. He has to make CNN and the Democrats say, “It was all a show”! Yep, they still didn’t believe it not because the Bromance is true, but because they cannot afford to admit the two of them are not in some type of “relationship”. It was easy for The Donald to let a few words be recorded, make a few comments and then move on. It was easy for Mr. Putin to sit there and let The Donald make a few statements. Why? Because it really was all a show! Give the public what they want; the photo op. Give the Democrats and the Liberal Media something to talk about and then move on to important issues. Issues that have been on the table for months. Play the game and then get down to business. By the time I posted this, the hysterical, I mean historical meeting has taken place. The real issues that will impact the two nations continue to be batted around. The Russians continue to make decision about Syria without giving Iran a vote. The Iranians know the topic of Syria is and was on the table and they didn’t get the coordination phone call. The Chinese have to wonder what was said behind closed doors, but that’s only if they are not able to find out. The crazy little fat guy in North Korea may or may not wonder what The Donald and Mr. Putin talked about. In the end, the photo op was held. The private meeting took place and who knows; they may have even had a beer together, but don’t tell CNN. It would prove the conspiracy they are punch drunk with.  What really came of this event? Nothing. What changed? Nothing. What is the topic that both are pushing hard on? NATO and North Korea. Trading is in the future and the trading partners are limited to the two of them. Back to work boys! Send out a tweet or two Donald. Have Sputnik media publish something rational soon Mr. Putin. The anticipated event is now history. Back to work. 

PUTIN AND TRUMP SET TO MEET, BUT DID THE MAIN TOPIC JUST CHANGE?

A successful ICBM flight for North Korea as confirmed by the US.  Going into the meeting between the Putin and Trump, the major topic was most likely going to be Syria with a bargaining stance of future support events in Eastern Europe. Now, part of that conversation may have just changed and changed dramatically. North Korea. That will be The Donald’s lead talking point. I would be willing to bet some level of conversation has taken place in just the past 24 hours. Staffs resetting the discussion flow. That is what I bet has taken place. An ICBM capability in North Korea! A game changer? Yes, but for more reasons than you might think.

One Man’s Crisis is another man’s opportunity!

Do the North Koreans have a miniaturized warhead that can sit on top of the rocket they just launched yesterday? The Intelligence community will have made the best guess they possibly can. Are they correct? The Chinese and maybe even the Russians may know. The fact of the matter is this. The ability to deliver is now there and the US has admitted it. Delivery. The world that most “experts” said the North was not close to yet. These are the same experts that missed the nuclear weapons programs in South Africa, Pakistan, and India. Need I say more? When it comes to nuclear weapons, there is no such thing as, “whoops”! Trump comes to the meeting now with a topic that must have some level of resolution. The North Korean can has been kicked down the road for over 25 years, but the road has come to an end. By the way, it’s the same road the can is heading with the Iranians.

Trump comes to the meeting with Putin with a growing crisis on his hands. On his watch, the issue of North Korea will finally have to be dealt with. What does the mean to the Tsar? Leverage! That what it means, leverage! Putin had it coming into the meeting, but the counter effort was painful. Eastern Europe. Poland and a Missile Defense program on the horizon. All of these things with Putin willing to turn up the heat in areas like Serbia as the Chess Match continued. Now. Now, that has changed and Putin know it. What does The Donald need from Putin on the issue of North Korea? What is the new price of support from Moscow? How does Putin help convince the Chinese to accept the possible fate of North Korea? Can he make the crisis better or worse? Going into this meeting, it may appear the Tsar holds the Trump Card…. I know….cheap! But! Does he? Does Putin have the real advantage?  Does he truly understand the mind of Donald Trump? Here is where the “experts” in Moscow, the Tsar’s “Experts” may have been wrong………………………very wrong!

The Mind of Trump!

I’ve made this point before. Trump is not a man who has achieved where he is in the world today by being out maneuvered at the negotiation table. Can he take a crisis and turn it into an advantage? Yes! He has that skill most of the US politicians, on both sides, hate about him. He is better at their game then they are and they know it and they hate it! The media knows it and they hate it more than the Politicians. Just ask CNN. “Vlad. I want you to know I am going to deal with North Korea’s program with or without your support. I’m going to inform the Chinese and let them know they need to make a choice. I know what they want in the region and I know what I will offer them to allow this North Korean nightmare to end. I will tell the South Korean government that we have run out of time. I will tell Japan’s government I will need their help,, but I will do this with or without them as well. I can’t allow this to continue and I will accept loses in our forces and the lives of civilians in South Korea and North Korea before I will allow the loss of life on US land. China has one last chance to prevent this event. You and I both know they have the ability to overtake the North Korean government either with their military or with the help of the North Korean military, but they must act now”! Now, these are not the exact words Trump may use, but the tone is there. The perception of, “I’m not going to let this event dictate the future of my country”! This is the real Donald! This is the mindset of a man who drives hard and at some point in a negotiation, digs in and crosses his arms. If this is the Trump that shows up for the sit down this week, what does the Tsar do? How does he maneuver to up the stakes if he suddenly sees that there is no room for compromise?  Does he look The Donald in the eyes and say, “ I understand! You can no longer tolerate what is taking place in North Korea and I can no longer tolerate what is taking place with NATO in Eastern Europe. What are we to do”? You better believe Putin is capable of such a steely eyed conversation. Folks! This could be one of the most important meetings for the future of the world in a long…………long time. Who knew the first meeting between these two would have such weight on it! I know I’ll be watching.

TURKEY AND THE SAUDI. WHAT IS REALLY TAKING PLACE?

Just about the time the Arab Spring started, I posted that in the end, the real issue for the region was going to be about power. It’s always about power. You pick the spot in the world and it’s about power. Back then, my comments came along two lines. One, the struggle between the Ottomans with their new Sultan, the Arabs with Saudi leading the charge and the Persians with Iran to once again, own the Arabs. By the way, owning the Arabs was and is the goal of the Sultan as well. The second issue that was and is tearing the region apart was once again about power, but this time the struggle was and is inside of one religion. So why all the talk about the tension between the Turks and Saudi? Why does that surprise anyone? Does it really surprise them? If you read someone’s babble about the weakened relationship between the Turks and the Saudis, stop reading! Don’t waste your time on the words of an idiot looking to get paid for this week’s editorial. Ottomans and Arabs. Oil and water. Persians and Arabs. Oil and water. Ottomans and Persians. Oil and water. Does it really matter? Does this increasing departure of tolerance of each other really matter; for that is all there really is, tolerance. Does Turkey’s support for Qatar really amount to anything? Yes. At this point in history, yes it does and here is why.

Qatar: 

I’ve not spoken much about this ongoing issue with Qatar. I posted something a few weeks ago, but then I sad back to watch what the shakeup in Saudi was really all about and what it might lead to. That’s a topic I will address in the next few days, maybe!

Why? Why is Turkey supporting Qatar? Is it the gas? Is the banking system? Is it Qatar’s funding in support of Turkey? Yes on all three counts, but it’s more than that. It’s part of the “vision” of the New Sultan. Divide and conquer? Is that the Sultan’s plan? Help split the Arabs. Help pull apart the regional coalition called the GCC? Even if this was not the real plot behind the support of Qatar, how could the pending King of Saudi see it any other way? What does the young Prince think of the Sultan? What does the think of the Ottomans? Yes, they are Sunni together by history, but that is not the baseline of loyalty in that part of the world. Blood! Blood is the cornerstone of alliances and there is no Ottoman blood in the Prince’s vanes! Taking sides is a dangerous game in the Middle East. Perception rules the world of international affairs and the perception of the young Prince may very well be the time for working with the Turks is almost over. Enter. Egypt. Well not really enter, but increased support that is the step that is taking place now. So how does the Sultan answer the increased Saudi / Egyptian alliance? Well, in a way that won’t make the situation any less dangerous.

Persians and Ottomans:

Over the past few years, I can’t remember how many times I’ve addressed the relationship between the Ottomans and the Persians and I’m too lazy to search my own blogsite! So, let’s look at this section of the post as a refresher. Is there anything the Sultan sees as appealing when he looks to the Persians? Trade? Well, somewhat, but nothing that makes his mouth water. The Kurds? Yes, they both have a common goal in keeping Kurdistan from taking place. Shia vs Sunni? Yes that bothers him, but not from a religious standpoint. He’s not exactly a Sunni zealot. He most likely only prays, when he needs to have someone seeing him do so. Pressure? Does the perception that the Ottomans are talking the Persians impact the Arabs, the Saudis? Yep, you bet! How about the West / US? What is the perception of the Turks talking with the Iranians? Frankly, Turkey has been the Brother in Law you can’t stand, but have to put up with for over ten years now. Tolerance. That is the common trail the West / US seems to be walking on the topic of Turkey.  It does help to poke the Sultan in the side every once in a while with his arch nemesis living in the US.  If things keep going the way they are with Turkey, I wouldn’t put it passed the Donald to even have Gulan swing by the White House for a chat. The Sultan would storm around in his Castle; oh yes, he has a Castle………….a huge one, built just for him. Okay, back on track!

In typical times, a Ottoman, Persian photo op would not stir too much anger in the Arab world, but the Arab world is in crisis right now and it shows no sign of calming down anytime soon. Qatar is being played as a Pawn by both the Ottomans and the Persians. That Pawn has a history of not doing as they are told when orders come from the Arab Headquarters, Saudi. Enter the pending, and actually current King of Saudi and you have yet another dangerous flashpoint. Qatar is not behaving and they are not behaving because they believe they have other larger bodies to hide behind, to include the US. Is everyone out to end the Arab’s dominance in the region? Is the West / US / part of the plot? What is the best way to strike back at this anti-Arab agenda? Who is the one that needs the poke in the eye to show the rest of the plotters just how serious you are? I wonder when an Iranian naval vessel is going to be fired on. Guess how my book about the next world war starts? I just hope it doesn’t happen before I’m finished writing. I hate when I predict something and then it happens before I can show how smart I amJ

JULY 1^ST AND “THE OTHER IRAN”.

Three interesting articles that were well timed by the Al-Arabia media site.

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/06/28/Iran-accuses-US-of-brazen-plan-to-change-its-government.html

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/06/28/Iranian-protesters-show-support-for-upcoming-opposition-Paris-rally.html

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2017/06/28/Growing-understanding-of-the-viability-of-regime-change-in-Iran.html

One common theme here. Are the Iranian people growing so tired of the Khamenei government that something may be “in the works”? Would there be those who would love to see this happen? Yes and you can name the big players, the US and Saudi and toss in there Israel. Has this happened before? Is this something new, if so what? Yes, this happens every year and yes, there has been opposition to the Iranian government from day one of the so called Revolution. By the way, I never saw what took place in 1979 as a “Revolution”. It started out as kids from College Compasses, but it was hijacked by the power hungry Fanatics as soon as they saw the Shaw was vulnerable. So, why these three stories just a day or two before the Rally in Europe. How ironic. The very place Khomeini hid just prior to his trip to Tehran. Is something different? Has something changed? Yes!

Although I’ve not addressed the issue of the new Future King in Saudi, I will soon, that factor cannot be overlooked. The man that supposedly gave Saudi and the GCC the Yemen conflict would be in full support of not just change in Iran, but pandemonium. The Donald! Does anyone think his team could be in the middle of briefing him on what is taking place with the “resistance” in Iran and his answer would be, “Naw….let’s not get involved”! Truth be known, the groups meeting in Europe this weekend have funding from several sources.

Fanatic’s Fear:

Does Tehran fear this Rally? Yes. Does Tehran believe their enemies are supporting this movement? With all their Heart. Are they right? Absolutely! The international game of meddling swings both ways, but most governments never seen to figure that out. Does Tehran worry this time may be different? Most likely? Is it important they feel this way? It’s critical! The change in Saudi, the change in the US and now a Rally that is being attended by just about every Western government there is, how does that not set off alarm bells? Just how dangerous could this be? Can Tehran afford to turn up the heat somewhere else to counter those that support the Rally? If Tehran really does believe this event is different this time around, how do they react? What options do they have? Anticipation and predictive analysis! These two are the water and oil combination for Western Politics and Western Intelligence. Has anyone even thought of how Tehran may react to this European based conspiracy rally? Just think how many sets of eyeballs will be in and around this rally.

What If?

Those that know me, know the, “What if” game is my favorite approach to any topic. Let’s play!

What if?

What if the rally really did lead to something taking place? What if Tehran overreacts, like they did in 2009 when Obama turned his back on the Iranian Green Party? How would the supporters of the movement react, this time around, to Tehran conducting a roundup? If nothing happens, then all those people who were just told this time was different suddenly realize it’s not! The Bluff game!

What if?

What if, the rally sets into motion real civil unrest in Iran, more specifically, Tehran? What happens when the Iranians who support the movement realize their supporters have pushed and are willing to push the game much further than they realized? Are elements in place to leverage the peaceful side of the movement? Look to the Arab Spring for your answer. Look to the Iranian so called “Revolution” for your clue. Those that have their own agenda are most likely not showing their true hand to the Iranians who support the movement. Their goals most likely don’t line up with the youth of Iran.

What If?

What if it all comes to pass? The fear Tehran had from day one of the Arab Spring was the idea that it was all a well plotted plan to destabilize Iran. Ironic given that was the same theory Saudi and Egypt had as well. But, if the movement breaks into the open and Iran’s government really does become destabilized, then what? Are those who have formed these resistance groups prepared to run the nation? Are those who supported the movement prepared to let them? Who has capability and the support to make the transition actually work? Does Iran wake up only to find themselves as the new version of Syria? What would fall of the current Iranian government really mean to the rest of the region?

Change! Resistance. One man’s Revolution is another man’s Coup. Is everyone really ready for what this movement could mean to them? Just how planned out is this concept? Who’s looking to gain what? What is the unified vision of Iran if the current government was to fall? So far, change in the Middle East has resulted in disaster. Who are the players and what is the unified goal?  I’ve said this time and time again, but I will say it now. Be careful what you ask for!