THE DEFEAT OF THE ISLAMIC STATE…..THEN WHAT?

So the US game plan is to destroy the Daesh once and for all! Mosul is key in that concept. Iraq and Syria are vital to the desired goal of the US.  So, let me ask a question, one that many others have been asking without hearing a whole lot of logical answers from Western governments or their armies of Talking Heads.

Then what?

I’ve heard tons of rhetoric [DS1] and bombastic statements about the Daesh from just about anyone involved in the fight to defeat the movement, but as the commercial use to say, “Where’s the Beef”? Will taking Mosul or Raqqa bring order to the region? Is order in the region the goal? Without “order” will the next version of Radical Islamic Terrorism simply fill the void? That’s the theory of most scholastic “experts”.

Here is the problem. The Donald didn’t sign up to solve the issues of the region. He signed up to destroy the Daesh. Is that goal accomplished by taking a few strategic, destroyed cities? News flash. The mission at the damn in Iraq was far more important than taking Raqqa or Mosul. Dig into it a little bit and you will see why.

A Symptom, not the Disease:

So, we all wake up in a few months and the major cities, territories held by Daesh have been recaptured? Recaptured by whom? The Kurds with help from the US? The Syrian government and the Iraqi government with one being supported by the Russians and the other being supported by the West. Oh ya……and both being supported by the Persians…still hard to figure that one out! So that’s it? Game over? No more Terrorism spawned from the region? Yep. Stupid comment and even the political pundits, who get briefed on events only to rush to the screen to show how smart they are, know better.

The Daesh and all those like it are symptoms, not the disease of what is taking place. The liberals will tell you the disease is social inequality. The Religious thinkers will tell you it’s the byproduct of a flawed religion.  The historical scholars will say it’s nothing more than an extension of historical conflict.  All of them are correct and all of them don’t have a clue what it will take to bring peace to the region. Yes, the Muslim world is at war with itself and yes it has been for over a thousand years. The breaks in the conflict have come only when the real threat to their worlds has come from outside their religion. Unique to the Muslim faith? Need I bring up the Catholics and the Protestants, whose very name speaks of revolt and conflict?  

Yes, there is tactical value in shooting the five meter target given the closest threat is most often the most dangerous one. Confronting the actions of groups like Daesh must take place. People must know the threat is being addressed, even when it is “addressed” over and over again.  But the end of a geographically located Daesh will not lead to the end of terrorist acts in the world. It may make planning complex events more difficult, but the acts such as those in London yesterday will not go away.

Five years ago, I wrote about the War on Terrorism and the concept of the West playing, “Whack a Mole”. It’s the game we have been playing and it’s the game we will continue to play until something much larger and drastically more dangerous comes along. Everyone watches the almost daily brush fires of Terrorism and some talk of a death from a thousand cuts, but when a true fire, a Forest Fire, starts the Brush Fires will simply be left to burn.

Dragon’s don’t start Brush Fires. The Dragon starts Forest Fires.

---

 [DS1]

ERDOGAN AND THE EUROPEAN UNION? JUST WHAT IS GOING ON?

News flash, Egodan has made yet more irrational and inflammatory comments. Who is stunned?  The Germans are acting like Nazi again! The Dutch are a “Banana Republic”….wait…what? A banana republic in the Netherlands? I’m confused. Does The Sultan understand the concept of a banana republic?  Just where is his brain? Has he taken to The Donald playbook…. Say crazy things and make people’s heads turn sidewise?  Actually, the Sultan makes The Donald sound logical! No… really!  Why would someone as irrational as Egodan travel the political path he has taken in the past week? It’s over the top behavior, even for him. What is going on? Simply put, he’s worried! He’s worried beyond being rational, when he was rational.

DREAMS OF A SULTAN:

For several years now, I’ve talked about the dreams, fantasy, of Egodan becoming the Sultan of the revised Ottoman Empire! Like most delusional madmen, his vision of his own place in history is far more important than the future of Turkey. His quest for authoritarian power over all Turkey is not just his goal. In his mind, it’s his destiny. The pending referendum is the last step in the future Sultan’s quest for glory!

IT’S CLOSE….REAL CLOSE:

Do all the people of Turkey share the vision of their aspiring Sultan? No and therein lies the answer to the harsh, absurd reaction to several EU countries refusing to let his goons stage so called rallies in support of the Sultan. Egodan has it in his mind the vote is going to be close and if he was to lose the vote, his opponents will smell blood in the water. The time to move on Egodan may appear again and for those reasons, he feels compelled to secure every vote, outside of Turkey, he possibly can. Millions of Turks live in Europe and holding so called rallies to inspire them to go vote that was and is the goal.  For Egodan, there is no other option than victory in the pending vote. It’s an all or nothing game for the future of his personal fantasy and in his mind for the future of the new Ottoman Empire.

DESPERATE:

Desperate, but just how desperate? Just how far will Egodan take this game with Europe? What can he do besides giving statements that show the rest of the world just how mentally unstable he is? Ask yourself this. What happens if he loses the vote? Who does he blame? What crisis will he generate if his vision goes up in smoke? Remember, we are talking about one of the most revengeful minded world leaders currently in power. We are talking about a man who truly is illogical and delusional.  Does he realize the Dutch are days away from a national vote that could very well bring to power a very…very… hardline government? If he does, does he care? It’s always been about him and his place in history. Yes, not unlike most world leaders, but this one is unique in many ways. The Dutch would ill afford an event taking place in their country that would lead to the ultras saying, “see….we told you so”! the risk of letting Egodan’s puppets screwing up a “rally” simply was not worth it.  The war of words will continue and the rest of Europe is watching and listening. What impression is Egodan leaving with them? What opinion did most of them already have prior to these latest mental episodes?

WHO’S PULLING THE STRINGS?

The Tsar and Egodan had yet another meeting this week and does anyone think for a minute the issue of Germans and the Dutch didn’t come up? Would the Tsar love to see anything more than Europe taking on yet another identity crisis? Pressure! More and more pressure on European leaders and with more pressure comes less opportunity to be proactive. Proactive on issues such as the Ukraine or NATO and the new pressures of the US on NATO.  If European leaders are squirming in their seats, the Tsar is smiling! Off balance and divided, that is the Europe the Tsar dreams of. If the crazy little Sultan can help the Tsar maintain pressure of Europe, then why not sit back and watch the show. If there is one thing Putin knows, it’s the fact that Egodan is entertaining! Europe and Egodan are on stage and the Tsar is clapping. 

A MEETING BETWEEN THE RUSSIANS….US… AND TURKEY? ANYTHING NEW?

Yes, once again, let me get this disclaimer out of the way. DEBKA has been known to embellish a story from time to time. Not the first time I’ve addressed the issue of media “embellishing” a story. By the way, why is it when the media “embellishes” an issue, it’s not placed in the category of “Fake News”? Yes, I am sure there is some Political Science or Journalism school explanation, but in the end…..yep…..fake news.  

Not only is this not the first time I’ve addressed the issue of the media and how they cover a story, but the whole discussion of “meetings” has come around more than a time or two. So, why bring it up again? Well, it might just be that this time around DEBKA is not embellishing, or at least not too much. Are the Russians, Americans and Turkey holding a meeting on the future of Syria? It very well could be! Will it work? Will there be a level of understanding, and agreement? Don’t hold your breath!

NEW MEETING, OLD ATTENDEES:

Not too long ago, I spoke to the issue of “meetings” for the second or third time, and the issue of looking at who was on the invitee list, or more importantly, who was not! Yep. The Iranians! As I have said before, it very possible the Iranians will get back briefed by the Russians and it’s even more possible the Iranians will not accept everything they hear from the Russians. It’s not just possible, but highly probable the Iranians will do everything in their power to obtain what was really said in this possible meeting! Left in the hallway is not the Persian plan!

Where is the Syrian government? Can you imagine a meeting being held to decide the fate of the nation you live in and the government of your nation is not in the meeting? Yep, same old line. The Russians will back brief the Syrian Government. If you want to know how that will go, just read the repeat my statement above about the Iranians.

Dividing up Syria? That was the prediction over six years ago. That was the ultimate outcome many had predicted. It’s an easy answer to a complex question. It sounds logical. It sounds agreeable. Agreeable to all parties with the exception of the two that disagree.

Once again, the backroom answer from the Russians to the Persians and Assad may very well be, “eat this or else”! As for the Turks. According to the DEBKA version of this story, the two real players in the process are the Russians and the Americans. Wait, there are three nations in this meeting and the one not mentioned is the one run by the biggest Egomaniac!  How is that going to work? Did I mention the Kurds? Yep, same bucket as the Persians and the seated government in Syria.

THE REAL GOAL?

What is at stake here? Syria? The ability to slow the destabilization of Europe with refugees? On that note, too late. Europe is waiting on the elections in France to see if the death sentence for the EU has been handed out.  Are the Russians and the Americans expending this first meeting opportunity on the topic of Syria? Is Syria that important to The Donald or the Tsar? No! No it’s not!

If this meeting is taking place, then the topic may be Syria, but the goal is not Syria. The goal is to set the relationship between the US and Russia. Russian forces and US forces working jointly? Is that an image both leaders want? Yes! Is that an image the members of NATO are absolutely frightened of? I can’t see why not. Russia and the US working hand in hand for the first time since the end of WWII. Is that the vision in DC and Moscow? Is that a vision the Dragon wants to see? At the end of the day, when he puts his head on his pillow, who is the Tsar really worried about? Does he dream of a Billionaire with Orange hair or does he dream of Dragons? Dragons building a new Silk Highway that runs right into the Tsar’s homeland! Why have the Iranians and the Syrians and even the Turks been left out? Because this meeting is not about them! Contact! Official “Contact”. You can send businessmen. You can send highball drinking Diplomats, but until your Warriors meet, you have nothing to sleep on.

http://www.debka.com/article/25954/Epic-US-Russian-Turkish-military-summit-on-Syria

OBOR / “ ONE BELT…ONE ROAD” THE FORCES OF MORDOR ARE ON THE MOVE!  

It’s no secret the Dragon moves in large, slow and complex ways. Plans that have “long-term” goals are much easier for a government where one party stays in power for decades. One only has to look at the Democrats in the US House to see the impact of such an event.

I’ve been reading about this new “Silk Highway” for several months now and I was more than skeptical on what I believed were the real motives behind the largest business transaction in the history of trade. Monumental in size, no blood and slow moving based on behind the door agreements, just the recipe for Western news media to be clueless and worse, not interested. Then I came upon a great article posted in The Economist. http://www.economist.com/news/china/21701505-chinas-foreign-policy-could-reshape-good-part-world-economy-our-bulldozers-our-rules

OBOR? It sounds like a character from the Lord of the Rings! “The OBOR! They march on Mundburg! The forces of Mordor have returned”! Here is the most frightening thing about this “OBOR”. What it is and why it’s here is right out in the open. The Dragon is spreading its Wings, but like Vampire, it must first dazzle it’s victims before it can feast on them. Traveling from country to country, virtually tossing Billions of dollars out to all who will hold out their hands, like manna from Heaven.  This concept of the new Silk Road plays to all of those who dream of better days to come and all can come true by simply signing a few, “unofficial” agreements! You know………………..like taking a loan from the God Father!

DREAMS:

I cannot begin to count how many times I’ve addressed the issue of old Empires dreaming of revised glory. The Ottomans. The Russians. The Persians. The Arabs. And now, that same dream seems to have entered the mind of the Dragon! As I state that, what was the theme of The Donald’s campaign? Ah yes….another dream of the old days! Fitting the Dragon picks the symbolism of the Silk Highway as it plots its new Empire! The Silk Highway. The age when the rest of the world discovered the richness and wonders of the Dragon’s Kingdom. For all of those who dream of recapturing their past glory, one reality rings true. Cost! In today world, paying for such a dream is a bill all the other dreamers mentioned above simply cannot afford.  All but one. The Dragon! With Trillions of dollars banked away and influence over the world’s most powerful lending institutions, only the Dragon seems to have its dream within reach. Yet, the road to such a vision is not made of silk or gold. The road to such a new Empire is full of dangers. The allure of the Dragon’s wealth is powerful, powerful enough to dazzle most of those who are called upon. But, one group stands in the roadway, perhaps even defiantly! For you see the dreams of the Dragon call for the destruction of the dreams of others. There is no Ottoman Empire. There is no Russian Empire. There is no Persian Empire and there is no “ Make America Great Again” if the Dragon’s dream is to come true. All must be made subservient. All must agree to the plan placed on the table in front of them. “Your dream is not possible, but in our dream, you have a comfortable place in the new world. A place where your people will be happy and provided for. If you do not agree, then you will be left out in the cold and your people will turn on you”! Maybe not word for word that will come from the Dragon’s mouth, but the inflection will be there.  As the Arabs say, “the words between the words”. One dream is all the Dragon has room for. One dream is all they will tolerate. There will be no partners of equal, but there will be enough crumbs to feed those who live outside the wall.

NO CHOICES:

No turning back. No choices. No lesser than options can be gambled on.  The Dragon has over 1.5 BILLION people in its Lair.  Time and time again, I’ve addressed the daunting task at the feet of the Dragon. How do you keep 1.5 BILLION people happy, content? How do you rule a land where one man drives a Ferrari and 900 MILLION others cannot afford to take a bus? If distribution of wealth is truly the balance for a peaceful society, then how impossible of a task does the Dragon have? What level of planning would it take to envision a country where that many people remain loyal to the leadership? What will it take to have peace in the new Empire? Governments survive on promises of grandeur, of better times ahead. Keeping the people believing in the dream is the most important challenge to any nation.  Leaders can beat them into submission, but that is only a temporary answer. Governments can promise the moon, but then they better produce prize or have a reason the people accept the prize could not be reached. In the end and far too often, governments find blame outside their control and then work hard to convince the people it was not their fault.

The Dragon must convince its people this new Silk Road will bring them prosperity and equality. So desperate is the Dragon to sell this message to the people that hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars are going to be sent painting the message. If the rest of the world doesn’t follow the dream of the Dragon and the lair begins to lose the dream, just how desperate will the Dragon become?

Who stands in the way of this dream? Who decides not to travel on the new Silk Highway? Will the crumbs be enough? If not, who is ready to fight the forces of Mordor and the OBOR? 

NORTH KOREA AND A POTENTIAL OPERA SINGER  

Going to take a quick break from talking about the US and Russian Chess game to cover the crazy cousin of the Dragon…..North Korea!

DIPLOMACY:

The word that just about everyone in the world truly believes is the key to solving any and all international issues! Diplomacy! So, those of you that believe in this word and it’s magical powers, explain something to me. How do you conduct “Diplomacy” with a man who shoots his own employees with anti-aircraft guns? Yes, I understand he has nuclear weapons and so “Diplomacy” is a requirement and we have good old Bill Clinton to thank for getting the world into that hole! Oh ya….he used “Diplomacy” to work the North Korean Nuclear Weapon’s issue!

THUMBING YOUR NOSE AT THE DRAGON:

Did the crazy Cousin of the Dragon really thumb his nose at them last week? Is this the first time he has done so? Well, maybe so publicly and that is just yet another level of scary. If, and I stress if, the coal issue between them is real, then the message being sent is far more important than strapping five government employees to a post and firing anti-aircraft guns at them. By the way, that was not the first time that has happened. Some have been strapped to rockets and some have had their own troops shell them with mortars. Look it up!

Could the Chinese, finally……………finally……….be growing tired of their crazy Cousins or should we say those allowed to rule over their cousins and that is a hint!

RESPONSE:

How does the rest of the world respond to a story such as this? I was amazed to see CNN actually place the story on the front page of their website. It must have killed them to give up room typically reserved for trashing The Donald. As I stated before, this type of action is not new for the North Koreans and you might even say the young crazy leader is just carrying on a family tradition. He probably attended events much like this when he was a child. Why be different? By the way, I’ve said this for years. Have you ever noticed the complete look of terror on the faces of the military Generals standing around the crazy little guy or even back when his Dad was in power? Who walks into the room and gives a briefing that is anything but glowing? Bad information? The crazy kid was mad about bad information? Tell the truth, get a rocket in the head. Give a fabricated story and get Rocket to the head! I bet getting promoted in the North Korean military is like being given a Command on the Western Front for the Russian in WWII.

Back to my point. What should the civilized world do? Ignore the little crazy guy with nukes? Wait for the Dragon to solve the problem? That falls into the category of “hope” and “hope” is not a plan! A few years ago, I wrote about this very issue and honestly, I’ve written about this topic more times than I can remember. I’ve never come off of my baseline theory on North Korea. If the Dragon wants the issue “solved”, then the issue will be solved.  Look at 1979 and a place called Vietnam. Is that it then? Is it up to the Dragon to put sanity back into North Korea? How much longer can the Chinese tolerate the crazy cousin to the South?

THE AGE OF BARTERING: 

For the past two months now, I’ve looked at the issue of how the Tsar and The Donald might be in a position to barter large moving pieces on the international Chess Table. NATO, Eastern Europe, The Middle East. Most of the players on these three topics have a feeling that bartering is underway. It usually is when new shifts in Super Power alignments are taking place. The same holds true for the Dragon and The Donald.  The actions of North Korea have had their value to the Chinese for decades. When the Chinese military was unable to stand and fight the West, the option of unleashing the crazy Cousin was always front and center on the table. Times have changed and they continue to change. The day is here or will soon be here when the Dragon no longer needs a crazy Cousin on the border of South Korea. Is there love between these two Cousins? Nope! Inferior, embarrassing, that is how China sees North Korea and don’t you know that goes over well with the little crazy guy! 

China knows what it wants in the region. The Donald is a businessman. As I said when I looked at the first priority task for then the new President of the US, what “deals” can The Donald make? What does the US want? Does the idea of a North Korea run by a logical, mentally stable person appeal to the West? Does the concept of a unified Korea sound appealing to the Dragon? Remember what I said a few years ago, a unified Korea means the US has no reason for forces on the Dragon’s backdoor called the Korean Peninsula. The question would then become, “why are you still here”?

TIME FOR THE FAT MAN TO SING:

The old saying goes, “It’s not over until the Fat Lady sings”! Well, The Dragon may be getting ready to turn the crazy little fat boy into an Opera Star. What level of bartering is The Donald ready to step to the table with? Remember those frighten Generals I was asking you about? How easy do you think it would be for the Dragon to persuade one of them, if not most of them, to turn on the man who shoots people with rockets? If The Donald brings the right level of material to the table, then we may be ready to hear a North Korean version of “ Carmen”. 

IRAN AND THEIR DIMINISHING LIST OF “FRIENDS”

Okay, right out of the gate, I admit the concept of “Friends” in today’s world of international affairs is about as lose of a concept as a Hooker telling you, “ You number one Joe”! Hookers and International Affairs? Hmm…… there is a coalition there! Seriously, today I’m going to take a shot at what appears to be the latest flair up between the Persians and the Ottomans.

If you go back and read my post from 2011/12/ you will find multiple discussions on the three way conflict in the Middle Eastern Region of the world. All three factions pushing for the same goal, the goal many other nations often pursue! Dominance! The Ottomans, The Persians and to some extent the Arabs all believe they should be the dominant force in the region. They all believe their history supports this drive. Not a story that is unique to that part of the world, but the ramifications of these desires, stacked on top of the social climate of the 21^st Century makes this ongoing story a very dangerous one.

OTHERS:

So, the concept the Persians, Ottomans and the Arabs are all jockeying for the same seat is a serious one, but then you have to add the fact that “others” have desires for the region as well.  To the Tsar, the Middle East is tool to set the course he desires in Europe. It’s a region that impacts his primary, at least for now, way of making money…………fuel! What dreams or ambitions the Ottomans or the Persians or the Arabs have is little more than noise to the Tsar. To the Europeans the region is what it has always been to them, the place where people come from that can overrun Europe. Today’s so called Mass Migration event is just the 21^st Century versions of a reoccurring nightmare. The “Unwanted” showing up in Europe! As for the Dragon, the region is nothing more than an opportunity, but an opportunity that must carefully be weighed with patients the Dragon is very….very… patient. To the US, the region is an emotional roller-coaster.  In the 30 years, the US has fought countless battles in the region with the loss of lives and treasure still looked upon by many as an unjust and unnecessary cost. Walking away, is not an option and doing more is very….very…unpopular at home.

SIDES:

Time and time again, I’ve addressed the issue of, “who is on whose side and are they really”? The Turks are fighting in Syria. The Iranians are fighting in Syria. The Russians are fighting in Syria. The Kurds are fighting in Syria. Numerous “others” are supporting all sides of the fighting in Syria! Is there any real concept of who is working together? I will tell you this, Syria is going to go down in the history books as one of the most confusing, illogical conflicts in human history. Yes, the world has seen other conflicts where the players and scorecards don’t make sense, but again, you have to factor in the coverage of the Syrian event. The world never had social media before. The awareness of the insanity of “sides” has never been so exposed almost on an hourly basses.

The Turks are fighting in one area against a group the Russians oppose. The Turks are fighting to take land from a government the Russians support. The Turks are fighting in one area against groups the West supports. The Turks are fighting in other areas against groups the West doesn’t not support. The Iranians are fighting groups the Turks support. The GCC supports groups that oppose the government of Syria. The Turks are fighting the groups the GCC supports? I could go on and on, but the message is clear. Syria is far more than a nation that has slipped into Civil War. Syria, as I have said before, is now part of a much larger struggle and for that reason, finding a way out of the conflict is nearly impossible.

IRAN AND TURKEY:

So what is this latest war of words between the Persians and the Ottomans about this time? Did something change? This is not the first time they have tossed insults at each other. Well, something has changed. The Iranians have changed and are changing! A few weeks back, I spent a few days talking about the added pressures being placed on Iran. Times have changed. The US Presidency changed and the course of the Persian vison has been impacted. The Tsar and The Donald are resetting, at least many think they are, the regional map. The Iranians are what they always feared they were; pawns! Things are simply not getting any better for the Persians and even internally, the rumors of the next election cycle are beginning to cause additional pressure. Lashing out at someone, someone other than the typical US / Israeli punching bags, seems to be the latest attempt by Tehran to show the world they are relevant.  Like The Donald, Egodan is not one to take insults quietly. Slapping back is a trait of his and this time around was no exception.

Frustration. That could be the key to what is taking place this time around. The Persians are simply growing more and more frustrated with how their vision is falling apart. Tehran doesn’t dare speak poorly of the Tsar and lashing out at the US or Israel is simply old news that scores very few points at home. The Persian vision of being the predominant nation serving under the Islamic flag is faltering. Tehran’s belief that all things Islamic will be based out of Tehran is never going to come true. Old men’s dreams are going to die with them and they are beginning to understand that. The problem is, that doesn’t mean they are not angry and even worse, desperate!

MATH:

Here is the number one problem for the Persians and it’s been the number one problem from day one of their old men’s dreams. Math. Do the math! The overwhelming majority of the Islamic faith is Sunni! The Persians represent the minority and the majority is not sympathetic to the minority dream.

From day one, the plan was to overcome this math with superior capabilities. If you can kill your advisory in vastly superior numbers, you can win the day! Okay, someone once again tell me why they believe the Iranian old men don’t want nuclear weapons? If you can be the hero of your religion by taking back your religions holy sites, then why would the rest of your religion not follow you, even when you are the minority? Do superior weapons make the minority, the majority? Oh, by the way, in case you forgot; the Ottomans are predominately Sunni!

DESPERATE:

 The Persians are growing more and more desperate. The list of friends is shrinking as the boldness of its enemies is growing. Internally, the natives are close to being restless again and 2009 is still in the minds of the old men in Tehran. The Ottomans and the Tsar and now it appears The Donald are making plans to push Iran out of Syria. That is a disaster for the Persians! If that was not enough, the real danger, the Sunni / Shia conflict shows signs of even getting worse.  An Arab NATO? Yep, I’ve talked about this one before to, but that can only send one message to Iran. Who will make up the Shia NATO? The Pakistanis? Nope! The Iraqis? Please! Where do the Persians turn? How long do they wait? How much worse can it get?

There is an old saying in the art of warfare. “It’s now or never”! Let’s pray the old men in Tehran don’t see it this way.

Side Note:

 I just finished  reading a RAND Corporation study on the impact of a US / China / conflict. Can’t site the document because RAND doesn’t like that, but it’s on the web…… like everything else in the world.  I’m not sold they hit the true “Human” factors in that report, but I may take a shot of doing something along the same lines on the topic of Iran. We shall see.

A few really good articles related to this post:

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/02/20/Iran-warns-Turkey-to-avoid-pushing-Tehran-s-patience-to-limits-.html

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201702221050958468-iran-conclude-war-drill-slap/

http://www.debka.com/article/25936/Saudi-spy-chief-visits-Israel-Ramallah

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/02/turkey-iran-rivalry-spills-over-with-angry-exchanges.html

MOLDOVA. IS THIS THE TSAR’S NEXT CARD TO BE PLAYED?

Where is Moldova? If that question has you stumped, let me give you a hint why it’s an important place, one of several reasons. It’s on the Southwestern border of Ukraine. Second hint, it wants become a member of the EU. Third hint, it’s been holding exercises with NATO forces! Need I go on?

RUMORS:

In a world that is virtually addicted to “rumors” and Social Media based “news”, the events surrounding Moldova in the past few weeks are starting to get Europe’s attention along with some in the Western Intelligence community. Is it a new rumor the Tsar may be contemplating options in Moldova? No. Does it seem the issue has more traction now than in the past year or so? Yes. As I stated earlier this week, the idea that several European nations are worried about the US’s new leadership and The Donald’s commitment to them, is most likely what is taking place here. Again, the theory being those worried nation’s governments are “pushing” their fears to the forefront. Now is the time to let the US know just how much danger they may be in. It makes sense, but will it have an impact?

THE TSAR’S PLAY:

 The Russians have no intention of seeing NATO operations held or worse, stationed in Moldova, but the government of Moldova would love it. The seeds of disruption have been planted in Moldova long before The Donald won the election. Yet, the Tsar has to give this potential relationship with the new US President time. He has to find out if The Donald’s words on the campaign trail really amount to actions in Europe.  This week gives the Tsar a good indication of what to expect. With his vast intelligence network analyzing the results of the US’s Vice President words on the cost of NATO, the Tsar will get a preliminary snapshot of what the EU is thinking. Are the words just words for the news media to cover? What were the closed door conversations? Can the Russians get a hint of what really went on?

Moldova options are ready, but the timing is not right. What is the prudent thing for the Tsar to do? Yep. Let a few stories get out that a coup may be in the works. Let Europe and the US believe another round of “Little Green Men” is about to take place.  By the way. I have to say, when Russian Regulars showed up in Eastern Ukraine with their equipment and the Russian response was, “They are on leave and if they decided to go there and fight while they are on leave, that is their business”…..well…..that was just amazing!!! In my book that was the most powerful slap to the face of President Obama he endured in his  entire eight years in office and he a few of them! Let the government of Moldova see the thugs lurking in the shadows. Let them make a few arrest and state they are members of groups plotting trouble in the capital. Will that work? Will that change the mindset of The Donald? I’m not sure the Tsar’s intelligence Team has a profile snapshot of the new US President that the Tsar is so confident of that he would risk altering his long thought out plan for Europe. But, the Tsar is a passive pressure kind of guy! Let the US and Europe know what might just be over the horizon and see how they react!

If you are sitting in Russia and you read this, take note. That concept is a terrible idea! It’s an idea that could lead to dangerous events!  Play the game with The Donald behind the scenes, but don’t try the tactic used on Obama. If you slap The Donald’s face, he is going to slap back and it will most likely be quick and without a great deal of forethought. Play the quiet game, but if you push to embarrass him, be prepared for unpredictable responses. Europe is watching. Eastern European nations are more than watching, they are praying and even placing side bets on this poker game. If you don’t know where Moldova is, I would bet you will hear of it in the next few months.

https://www.unian.info/world/1235392-analysts-report-high-probability-of-coup-in-moldova.html