THE DONBASS ISSUE. AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW

Well, as you get older the saying goes, you get wiser! That didn’t hold true for me yesterday. As I was burning a few brain cells on the latest events in Eastern Ukraine, I missed a scenario that I shouldn’t have. It wasn’t until this morning, when I read this attached article, that I realized a very real scenario. What if the Tsar truly is not behind the flare up in Donbass region of the Ukraine? What if the event is the action of the government in Kiev? How did I not think that one through at the level I should have? I have only one answer. I’ve been so fixated on the concept of a Trump / Putin bartering concept, that I let myself overlook the reality the seated government in Kiev is not made up of a bunch of Knights in Shining Armor. Did Poroshenko and his team plan this latest round of unrest? What is Kiev worried about?

WHAT’S GOOD FOR THE GOOSE IS NOT ALWAYS GOOD FOR THE GANDER:

What would a new relationship between the Tsar and The Donald mean for Kiev? In the close door discussions on the future of commitments to Europe, where does the Ukraine fit in? Yes, it’s a major part of the Tsar’s disunion with The Donald, but where is the new US President on the topic? Does Kiev really know? Do they trust what they are hearing? True, Western military leaders are in Kiev. True Western Diplomats are talking to Poroshenko’s team, but what is the level of confidence? Words? Like I always say, “Deeds before words”!

Is the Ukraine any different than many of the other countries as they watch this new dance between the US and Russia? Can the Ukraine simply hope their future turns out the way Western political and military leaders are telling them? Would the US or the Russians settle for such words of assurance?

PERCEPTIONS:

Once again, the ageless issue of perception comes into play and this time, it’s not just the perception from Kiev, but the perception from Moscow!

Yesterday I made the comment there was no way the Pro Russian Rebels / Donbass Militias, take your pick, would instigate military conflict in the region without a green light from Moscow. So ask yourself. Could the Tsar possibly believe the pro-Western government of Kiev would do the same without the knowledge of key Western powers? Interestingly enough, the answer may be “yes”! If someone walked into the room and told Putin there was an unforeseen event taking place in the Donbass region he might believe it was a sanction event given the amount of Western / US / military advisers in Kiev. He might think to himself, “Is Donald testing me? Is he showing me he too can press issues to gain leverage in the ongoing bartering game”?   Remember, we are talking about a very methodical, yet, paranoid Tiger Hunter here! He may come to the conclusion, as this article states that Kiev is simply trying to place the Ukraine issue back on the front burner. Does that mean it had Western support? That’s up to the Tsar to decide!

Perception. It’s the force that drives the world. It’s the core value of two very powerful men. Two men who are in the early stages of dancing a very complicated and dangerous tango! What an ugly mental pictureJ

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201702041050343247-ukraine-nato-prospects/

A QUICK LOOK AT THE EVENTS IN DONBASS

So, what is taking place in Donbass and more importantly, why now?

Donbass Militias? Does Sputniknews.com mean “Pro Russian Rebels”? Does anyone believe these groups do anything without guidance from Moscow? Are we to believe they are just Free Radicals, bouncing around in the Tsar’s backyard? Not hardly! So, why is this “flare-up” taking place now? It’s typically not the right time of year for such a thing, winter, but they have had snowy events in the past. Still, something is up!

For all the talk of the new found love between the Tsar and The Donald, yep, I’ve picked my nickname for him, just how much trust can there be in this relationship? Would both sides not make an attempt to hedge their bets? Is the Tsar ever really “all in” on any deal? How about an international Businessman worth Billions? Just how stable is this so called love affair? Do either of them compromise everything they intend on doing for the sake of their working relationship? Silly question, but it leads to a bigger discussion.

TRUST:

The Donald and the Tsar have worked around each other for many years. Their interactions in the Casino business alone has made them understand each other. “What does he want? How does he operate? Who does he ‘trust’? How far do I trust him”? These are very likely questions that have been asked by both men in the past.

Does the Tsar trust that his plans for restacking the deck in Europe will happen with only the interactions of The Donald? No!

Does The Donald rest any concept of the US’s interaction with Europe based on his relationship with the Tsar? No!

So, just how far does this relationship go?

In the world of international relationships, relationships between nations that have had and are having difficult times, are other measures required to give the right message? How does the Tsar Show leverage after he and The Donald start negotiating? More importantly, how does the Tsar or The Donald “Test the Waters”? Is the Tsar looking to see what the US’s response will be if a controlled flare up takes place in Eastern Ukraine? Is it a “test” or is it a “message” or perhaps both?

My take is this. The Tsar is testing the new US President as well as sending a message to Europe. If the Tsar pushes a controlled event in Eastern Ukraine, Europe gets to see just how the Trump Administration will react. The Tsar knows all too well parts of Europe have a real fear the US is pulling away from their issues. They have all heard the talk of the future of NATO. The Tsar is testing the US and placing further doubt in the people of Europe. He won’t let it go too far. It will not get out of hand for now is not the time. His relationship with the new US President is too important right now. But, a little nudge….. a little hint of what could be if things between them don’t go well….. that is just the Tsar’s style! Interaction with the Tsar is far different now than simply dancing around each other over the Casino business! My bet is, The Donald has little to say about the events in Ukraine and that may be just the message the Tsar wants the rest of Europe to hear!

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201702031050318233-un-peacekeepers-kiev-donbass/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38850375

THE FIRST “OFFICIAL WARNING TO IRAN”!  STEP ONE IN THE US / RUSSIAN BARTERING GAME?

Before I get started, let me get this out of the way. I told ya so! A few days ago, I posted my opinion the Iranian missile launch story would knock the immigration controversy off the front page, at least for a few days.

So, when was the last time we witnessed a National Security Advisor to the US President be called to the podium during a “normal” White House press briefing? Besides that oddity, did anyone pay attention to the tone of the message? Not your typical, past eight years, talk around the topic. Flynn put Iran, “On notice”! Now, the Iranians know Flynn. They have a profile on him from his days of working in the region. I can assure you that nowhere in that profile does it state, “He tends to embellish. He often says things he doesn’t mean”. Flynn is get to the point kind of guy and that is exactly why President Trump picked him. Once the Iranians got over the shock of this new and unusual way of receiving a message from DC, a reoccurring question must have become the topic of the day. Had the Americans and the Russians begun their plan for the region? Was this round one of a new day in the region?

COINCIDENCE:

It’s true that just about any source of information can be questioned and should be.  Good intelligence operations work best when all sources of information are vetted to the extent possible. Rumors can be a valuable source of information as long as other avenues are taken to validate raw data imbedded in the “Rumor”. So, there is this “Rumor”. A rumor that the Russians have told the Iranians and the Syrians and all Hezbollah to stand fast! There is to be no Offensive Operations anywhere inside of Syria! If this were true and I want to stress the word if, then we would need to stack that event on top of the “Rumor” that the Iranians were not allowed to give any conditions in the Syrian peace negotiations of last week. http://www.debka.com/article/25908/Russia-freezes-Syrian-Iranian-military-movements

  Then we stack that “rumor” on top of the one that depicted all  Iranian backed Shia Militias will not be factored into the post Syrian conflict. Put all of these “rumors” together, valid or close to being valid, and we come up with one undeniable fact. The Iranians are not partners at the Big Table!

So, is it just a coincidence the US takes an open slap at the Iranians? Was the US threat the signal the new deal is underway? If the coverage of this story by Sputniknews.com, the Tsar’s mouthpiece, is any indication, how could the Persians be anything but convinced? What do they do? Call Moscow and asked, “What’s up? Are we just to be left in the dark”? Regardless of what the answer might be, the reality is, the Persians are most likely convinced two of the three true Super Powers in the world are deciding the future of the region and that future doesn’t involve the desires of the Persians. https://sputniknews.com/politics/201702021050274741-trump-iran-missile-test/

MUSIC TO THEIR EARS:

With elections just over the horizon in Iran, once again, harsh actions by the West / US / will play right into the hands of the Hardliners in Iran. Between the arguments the nuclear deal was a hoax by the West and now the US openly putting Iran on notice, the fanatics will take every advantage they can. “I told you so and now we must prepare”! Don’t doubt for a minute that statement, in some form or fashion, is not being repeated in Tehran. Pushing the so called Moderates to the side is the objective of the Hardliners and the events of this week played right into their hands.

Here comes another old adage. “Be careful what you ask for”! If the Hardliners in Iran are banking on a more defiant US President. If they are anticipating the Russians making deals that involve the region and not letting Iran in on the game, then they may just get too much of a good thing!  Yes. The US is going to change the attitude towards the Iranian current, and I stress current, leadership. The US and the Russians are going to barter issues in the Middle East to get to more important topics on their plates……. Europe, NATO and the Pacific.  

Yes! The Persians are probably correct! The new game is most likely underway. How fast it moves and what the level of play is what they will need to worry about next. Then again, as I’ve said before, if they feel like they have been played, then how do they react?

Dear Iranian Hardliners. Be very…very….careful what you ask for. The consequences could be dramatic. You have many enemies in the region and the events of the past few weeks are only the beginning of a new day. A day that doesn’t have your dreams on the to do list! 

AMONGST  THE HYSTERIA, A MISSILE FLIES? DID ANYONE PAY ATTENTION?

Honestly, I turned off the news streams in the West for the past two days. Did anyone think for a moment that as the new program for immigration into the US started and outcry of “Wait for me” wouldn’t start? No matter what the details of the plan may have been, the reaction was going to be the same. The fact that a Obama appointed US Department of Justice member decided to make a political show out of the event only shows how off balance the US really is.  Yes. Once again in the US, party politics is far more important than national / international issues. Well, that is why I turned off the Western news!

A few days ago, the Iranians launched a mid-range missile. It was yet again, a clear violation of the worthless agreement signed by the Gang of Six on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program. Did anyone notice? The Trump Team did and I am sure the intelligence community in several countries noticed as well.

So what?

Is this the first time the Iranians have openly violated this signed “joke”? No! So, why not just ignore this one just like the others? What is different? What changed? Yep. Trump! That’s what. An opportunity has presented itself and the Trump Team is likely to jump on it. Who called for the emergency meeting of the UNSC? Yep. The US. Does this mean the issue is about to become a major issue? In my book it’s very possible. President Trump has spent every single day since his swearing in addressing the list of issues he stated he was going to address if he became President. Why should he skip the Iranian nuclear deal? Okay, yes, he has sidestepped the Embassy issue, but I don’t know for how long. Sisi got to him on the issue and the need for Egypt to be “ on board” with other issues in the region may have moved the Embassy event to the right…… but who knows for how long! Trump has said time and time again what a bad “deal” this Iranian nuclear program event was. How could he let the Iranians openly defy the agreement so early in the Trump’s term? I don’t think he will and that is something the Iranians may have miscalculated.

Power Struggle continues!

Could the Iranian hardliners take this bold action for a reason? Could they be more concerned about forcing the US to react and thus strengthening the hardliners position in Iran, just prior to another election cycle? Yep. That wouldn’t be a new tactic on their part.

When President Trump spoke to the Tsar last week, did the Iranian issue come up? Who knows but it’s very possible something was said that impacts Iran’s future in the region. Syria and Iran’s involvement in the conflict was most likely the catalyst for any conversation on the Persians. Did the Russians know the Iranians were about to test this missile? It depends on what status the site was in. The intelligence community has the information that allows them to predict a test launch, but what day is it actually going to take place depends on several factors with one usually being when fuel is loaded. Anyway, the point is this. Does President Trump’s reaction to the Iranian launch start with a conversation with the Tsar or does he have his UN Ambassador make a point at the UNSC meeting, or does he do both.

Rumors:

The US needs an event to set the whole issue of the Iranian program into motion. The Trump Team may even have a plan for how they wish to deal with the Iranian program. Did they need this launch to get the ball rolling? Has the Tsar already mapped out his plan for Iran and the region? Does he wait for the US to set the game into motion?

Is the issue of the immigration policy changes in the US going to blind the American people to the point that other events in the world go unnoticed? Internal bickering is sweet music to the US enemies’ ears!

Let’s see what happens next.

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/01/31/UNSC-to-hold-urgent-talks-on-Iran-missile-test.html

THE US RELATIONSHIP WITH MEXICO. THE SAGA CONTINUES.

Back to the topic that seems to occupying a great deal of time in the US and rightfully so.

Mexico. I’ve written about what is taking place. I’ve written about why it’s taking place and I’ve written about where it might all be going. So, what is there left to write about? Well, I want to go back to my discussion on the concept of the pressure cooker and how the Mexican Government works hard to keep this social pressure cooker from gaining steam!

Short and sweet. As I have said, by pushing those in Mexico who are desperate, desperate due to a long history of failed, corrupt governments, the Mexican Elite keep them from marching on Mexico City. If those people are force to stay home, where does the Mexican Government believe they will show up? Yep. Pressure!

Now, when you have enough pressure on two objects, what tends to happen? The meld, merge, become one mass.

In Mexico you have the poor who have just in the past few years began an old tradition in Mexico; armed resistance. Object number one!

In Mexico, you have far left, Socialist Universities who students are made up for kids from poor, rural families. Universities that were designed to give the poor some perception of hope, but not have them walking into the high-rises of Mexico City taking jobs reserved for the upper-class children of Mexico’s Elite! Object number two!

Look…………… It’s simple. The more the pressure rises in Mexico, a nation that is unstable on a good day, the more the risk of real social unrest comes into play.

As the risk of social unrest grows, the more the Mexican Government will become desperate to find a relief valve.  The Wall will not allow the people they want out of Mexico to leave. Yes. They don’t see the Wall as not letting people in. the Mexican Government sees the Wall as not allowing people out!!!!!

Options:

The Mexican Government will look at the following options.

Reach out to new Partners, Partners that would upset the US perception of the relationship between the US and Mexico and would also allow the party in opposition to lash out at the US President. Short answer….. reach out to the Tsar or the Dragon for the simple fact of pissing the US off.

https://sputniknews.com/world/201701191049777313-mexico-petition-corruption-putin/

Here is the key flaw in that revenge minded approach. It doesn’t solve the people issue in Mexico! Those who are desperate are still desperate! The Tsar and the Dragon are not about creating jobs in Mexico. They could care less! Leverage against the US. Is it worth it? Does it give the Tsar or the Dragon an advantage? Probable the Dragon more than the Tsar. Will it happen? Depends on the Dragon and the Tsar, not Mexico City.

The other option is far…..far ….. more difficult! Clean up the county. Give it a real government. Create a true legal system. Develop a functional Law Enforcement concept. Find local leaders who are only somewhat corrupt. PS. They are all corrupt to some level and that holds true in most parts of the world to include the US. Take down the Drug culture running the nation. Prisons that actually hold real criminals and not just political, social threats like Doctor Mireles! You know….. Rebuild the whole country! Now, as a matter of fact, this “rebuild” theory was started a few years ago with the last two Mexican Presidents, but it was nothing more than media lip service. Good members of the Mexican Police, Military tried, but in the end, the real leadership of Mexico failed again.

Here is the option the Mexican Government cannot move forward on. They cannot agree to the Wall! They can’t do it quietly. They can’t do it publicly. The Wall means only one thing to Mexico. Social pressure! Social pressure that leads to social unrest. An unrest that could and will spread like wildfire throughout Mexico!

Yep. The Wall is an issue, but not just for US Democrats dreaming of changing the voting demographics of the US.

The Wall is an issue of national survival for Mexico.

What actions will a nation take when the words, “National Survival” are used?

Dangerous times could be ahead for you see, when a government feels truly threatened, it will create an enemy that is even more dangerous than the current threat. It will fabricate a threat in a desperate hope to distract the public!

THE US PRESIDENT FAVORS “SAFE ZONES” WHY?

Not sure with all the actions being taken by the new US President, the Syrian story is the one worthy of discussion today, until I began to think about why President Trump would be in favor of “Safe Zones”?

In everything he does, the needs and the desires of the US come first! That is what he said the day he was sworn in and that is what I believe he intends on doing. So, how do Safe Zones in Syria fit into that picture? Let’s look at a few key questions and see if the picture is more complicated than we may think.

Do Safe Zones in Syria address the issue of Refugees coming to the US?

 Yes, to the extent of those fleeing the conflict in Syria. By the way, even if you don’t approve of the stern actions taken by the Russians, you will have to admit the flow of people out of Syria has declined, yes, for a multitude of reasons.

  If President Trump is going to declare a “moratorium” on Refugees from place like Syria, then having an alternative plan seems logical and gives the Trump Team something to answer the         critics with.

 Committing US forces to the conflict area is not a concept Trump campaigned on and that issue would come under immediate attack by his opponents. The size of the force and the duration of   the mission would be the first two talking points.

Who’s on-board with this plan?

 Some “rumors” say the Turks and the Russians are good with the idea. Rumor! I can guarantee  you Assad is not okay with the concept! I can tell you the Iranians are really not okay with the     idea! We know the Turks have been calling for such a plan from the very beginning of the  conflict. Can the US drive one of those wedges I’ve been talking about between the Turks and the Tsar? Just how bad does the US need to keep Turkey in the Western Camp? If the Russian    are onboard with the idea, what does that say for Assad? Look. The Russians submitted a “Draft” Constitution for the Syrians at the latest round of so called Peace Talks. What kind of  message does that send when another nation drafts another nation’s new Constitution? I’ve  said it for the past four years; Assad doesn’t determined the future of Syria. The Russians and to some extent the Iranians pull the strings. Assad is the Eye Doctor with a title.

   The “Rumor Mill” has the Turks, the Russians and the US holding safe zones in Syria. Separate  and based upon geographically important areas. That same rumor mill has Iran planning no official role in any of the process! Some say the Shia Militias would be told to go back to Iraq. I simply don’t see how the Persians sign on to any of this. Hezbollah’s losses in Syria have been huge and to end the process by being told to go home, I’m betting that won’t happen. In that part of the world, who you shoot at can change with one text message!

  Plan! Yes, you can bet a “plan” has been developed for some time now. It’s what the US military does best! Is there a base plan that simply needs modifications based upon new factors? Yes. Is actually executing such a concept complicated? Oh…..absolutely!

Kurds? Where are the Kurds in the plan? Does the dream of an independent Kurdistan once  again go up in smoke? Do the Kurds agree to this plan? Where they in on the discussion? The  odds are, if this conversation has taken place, it took place between the Turks, Russians and the Trump Team with little input from the Iranians or the Kurds. Backdoor briefings to some of the    other key players in the region, Israel, Jordan and Egypt and maybe even a few GCC members,  well, that’s possible. But, it depends on what level of fidelity this plan actually has reached.

Messaging:

Here is something we may need to think about. Perhaps this was not the official announcement  of the plan? Perhaps this was a message to the Russians and the Turks. We know the Trump Team has been talking to the Russians and you can bet the Russian have been talking to the Turks about what the US has said to them, at least to some degree! Perhaps, just perhaps, this is   yet another indication of how the Trump Team intends to work “Information Operations”? Sit back, make a bold statement to the press and then watch, at all levels, the communications it creates. It’s a process the Russians are master of. Messaging is a tool President Trump learned  as a Businessman and he absolutely has carried that skill with him to the White House.

Conclusion:        

 Is the US about to embark on a mission inside of Syria? I doubt it. It could be true, but something  tells me the reaction to the “message” is what the Trump Team is looking for. Two things are happening as I write this. One, the Turks are wondering if the Russians are working with the US without telling the Turks. Two, the Iranians are wonder the same thing!  Fascinating how a single sentence from a powerful person like the US President can set so much in motion. I think Trump is Master of Information Operations and I think he is better at this skill craft than his Intelligence            Community is. Let’s see what unfolds! 

TRUMP AND THE “WALL”. WHAT DOES IT TRULY INDICATE?

I had another topic I wished to cover this morning, but once I saw President Trump was going to make a statement about the wall along the Mexican border, I figured I would head back to that issue one more time.

I’ve addressed the issue of Mexico and its lack of governance on several occasions, but for the sake of making my position clear, well, here we go one more time.

Fact: Hundreds of thousands of are people trying to sneak into the US ever year why and why are they overwhelming attempting to do so along the US’s border with Mexico? A two part question and so, a two part answer. Short and to the point on both counts.

Why are they trying to get into the US? Because the government that rules the nations they are coming from, predominately Mexico and other Central and South American nations, have failed and continue to fail to provide them the basic needs of society, safety and opportunity. This failure has some of its origin in the failed US policy towards its fellow “Americas”. But, the ability to correct for that failure has been the failure of these same nation’s governments! Simply put. They have had time to develop their own policy for success and they have failed to do so.  

Why are they overwhelmingly coming from Mexico? Because Mexico doesn’t want them to stay in Mexico, even when most of them are Mexico’s own citizens. What better way to relieve potential unrest than to push those who may march on your capital into another country? Yep. In the eyes of the Mexican government, they are just passing on their own social failure in hopes of it not showing up on the streets of Mexico City.

Answer number two is exactly why any Mexican government would be and will be against a wall.

By the way.

Dear Mexico;

               Pull out of NAFTA…… I dare ya! Hell! I Double Dog dare ya! Watch how that plays out for ya.

ENEMIES:

What do enemies look for when they face a superior force? Yep. Leverage!

How many times have you heard someone say, “The Terrorist are planning on infiltrating the US along the border with Mexico”. Yes, they have said Canada as well, but the volume of people is the driving factor, unless you are a very clever enemy and go where the protection is weak. That’s a story for another day! The fact of the matter is, the US Southern border holds the highest probability for successful entry to the US when the only resources you have are your feet. The other fact of the matter is, our enemies understand the advantage of looking like everyone else crossing the border. Look, it you think this is a racist statement, then you are just an ideological fool. The fact is, the ability to blend in with the pack is easier along the Southern Border than anywhere else. But, and it’s a big “but”, the real issue is not the US’s enemies. It’s not the chance of sophisticated Terrorist sneaking across the Southern Border disguised as a group of poor, downtrodden Mexicans.  

POLITICS:

Here is where my version of the current wall issue becomes very, politically ugly!

One party in the US sees the future  voting base from this unauthorized entry, that is my stab at Political Correctness,  favoring them. Perhaps not the ones that sneak in, but their children, who will be able to vote.

Yes. To one US political party, it’s not about Human Rights. It’s not about being, “Compassionate”. It’s about power! Political power! I’ve said this before and I will say it again. If the folks sneaking across the US Southern Border were known to very conservative and despised government supported programs, do you think for a minute that same US political party would be in favor of them coming to the US?

THE WALL:

Does the concept of a “Wall” really work? Well, ask a nation under siege. Ask Israel.

Is a wall the right answer? It’s the right answer for those in the US who fear the movement into their country has become uncontrollable. Perceptions! The world works off of perceptions!

Will the Wall upset the Mexican government? Oh yes!  Can the Mexican government stop its construction? No.

Does the new US President gain status by living up to his promise of building a Wall? Yes!

Are there going to be second and third order effects by this wall concept? There already has been.

How upset does the Mexican government get? Who can they turn to as a new trade partner? What new partner and even new “relationships” would upset the US the most? Yep. I think you know.

Imagine the Dragon’s military conducting joint drills with the Mexican Military.

Where is all of this going? Well, it’s not going where either side of the argument might think.