TRUMP’S STYLE OF FOREIGN POLICY…. WHAT WILL BE THE REAL DIFFERENCE?

Well, according to the Liberal, Socialist, and Pacifist left, the end is nearly upon us! The U.S. is only 28 hrs. away from having Donald Trump as President! What is going to happen? How soon will the rest of the world really begin to hate the US? News flash….a large part of the world already dislikes the US and most of them work at the United Nations. Everyone is speculating on what Trump will be able to do and not be able to do. What will he change first? Side note: The idea that over fifty sworn political members of one US political party would deliberately not attend the inauguration is pathetic, but I won’t run down that rabbit hole now.  

We could play, “What if”, all day, but let’s take a look at a broader more important topic that will have a much larger impact on the next four years than what Trump does first or second.

STYLE:

What will be President Trump’s style in the realm of international affairs? For the past eight years, the US has taken a stance often attributed to “Progressive thinking”. Let an issue come to the table, see what the other side / sides/ have to say and or offer and then find a way to compromise that hopefully everyone will abide by. Risky in the business word and not widely accepted in just about any segment of the business world. This concept makes it extremely difficult to achieve individual goals that may not be popular with those who are coming to the negotiation table. It is easy to say, “no’ or “I don’t agree” when the point is made in a passive manner. It’s simply not how the world of international relations works. No. You don’t have to come to the table with a hammer or your shoe, Soviet jab there, but the odds of achieving an objective are not fundamentally based on capitulation to a common level.

Trump’s “style” will be very different. As I’ve said before, he attacks problems / issues/ with the attitude of an aggressive Businessman. A Businessman who has been very successful in many parts of the world. Will he come to the table with his shoe? No! Will he come to the table with a plan for what he wants to achieve? Yes. Will he leave room for negotiating a workable compromise? Yes! The art of negotiation is often the center of gravity for very successful Business minded people. Will the Trump team be aggressive? Yes and that is the real change for not only the US, but for all of those who have been dealing with the US. Is Trump’s “style” akin to Passive Aggressiveness? If I had to deal with his team on a continuing bases, I would bank on “Passive Aggressiveness[DS1] ” before and after the meetings, not during the meetings.

Offence / Defense:

Here is another way you can look at the issue of the pending Trump style.  For the past eight years, the US has come to the table on Defense! Worried the world was so angry for all the aggressive behavior the US had shown over the past decades that it had to apologize and just sit and listen. Disastrous!  A “Leader” who so many leaned on suddenly showed up and said, “I’m sorry and I don’t want to lead anymore”! The world slide into even a deeper crisis and that scared the US so much that they felt the only answer was to be even more neutral. These are the actions of Passive people. Defense! Everything you do is based upon not upsetting the other side. Everything you do is built around compromise!

Offense! Can the Trump Team go on Offense and not be perceived as being over aggressive? To the US’s enemies the answer will always be “No”! Can the Trump Team have a plan that is based on what is good for the US and what the US is willing to compromise on? Yes. Will the Trump Team have bartering as a centerpiece of its international policies? If you coming to the table with the Trump Team, you better be ready for that concept.  

Like it or not, the US has been on Defense for the past eight years. The Trump Team is coming to the table on Offense! Let’s see how that plays out.

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 [DS1]

ERDOGAN AND THE EVER CHANGING FUTURE OF TURKEY.

“Terrorist”? Now if you deal in dollars or Eruos, you are a “Terrorist”? The same as having a bomb? This is the leader of one of the key NATO partners? Like the old saying goes, “with friends like this, who needs enemies”? It’s a good thing most of the important people in the world know Egodan is a nut job, but he’s a dangerous nut job. In classic Turkish style, the military, at least part of it, tried to remove him. Again, another old saying, “ when you go to assassinate someone….don’t miss”! Beautifully played by the Tsar, the Mad Turk ran into the arms of the Russian Bear and boy, is there some history there when it comes to the Ottomans and the Russians! Economically snubbed by the EU and completely misplayed by the US administration, Egodan, it really is a good nickname for him, has been floundering around, ranting and raving about everyone that is out to get him and or  Turkey! But now, now the dollar is the weapon of “Terrorist”? Egodan is man who truly believes that wild, inflammatory statements are the best way to get attention and then your way! The problem is, eventually, most people stop paying attention to the rants! How often have you witnessed a Mother or Father just walk away, ignore, a child’s hissy fit? Yep, the same seems to apply to Egodan. His comment about the dollar and the euro didn’t even make the major news networks in the West / US. Come to think of it, most of his statements don’t show up in the West at all! I wonder just how infuriated that makes him?  But, then again, most of his diatribes are for internal consumption and as such, coverage by Western Press may not upset him too much.

TURKEY’S FUTURE: 

I can’t remember if I addressed Turkey in my 2017 predictions and I’m too lazy to go back to look.  The attached article didn’t catch my eye because of the discussion of Turkey’s debt. It was the Terrorist statement that was the eye grabber, but the overall, economic future issue is worthy of someone conducting a detailed review. You can bet the lending and business communities are doing just that.

As has been the case in the US for the past eight years, leadership can only last so long when all they do is place blame for everything that is not going right in the country on someone or something outside of their control. The blame game works, but it only works for a period of time. What happens when the blame game begins to play out in Turkey? How does Egodan crack the whip if the Turkish economy continues to falter? What is the next level of “blame”? Better yet, is there anyone who he can turn to that can save him?

Putin! If your answer was the Russians, then you guessed wrong! The Tsar has one goal and one goal only with his tolerance of the Ottoman fool; the degradation of NATO. Well, really two goals. The movement of fuel, but the short term goal is to weaken NATO as much as possible. Pipes can be moved, nations cannot.

The puppet strings have been masterfully placed on the Ottoman Sultan, but the Tsar’s confidence in how strong they are is the question. Perhaps a few more common goals, a few more favors or concessions might do the trick, but bailing out the billions of dollars, Terrorist tools remember, of debt, well that is not going to happen given the status of the Russian economy. It’s easier for the Tsar to inflame the temper of the Ottoman than it is to pay off his delusional spending debt. Making a statement equating the dollar to Terrorism, well, that was music to the Tsar’s ears. Drive that wedge! Keep pushing the Sultan to walk away from the West and NATO.

When the Tsar and President Trump meet, I wonder what part of that conversation will involve the Turks, if it even does. The Sultan will have to sit and wait to see what message his “friend” that Tsar brings him from the meeting. The Tsar will want to push the issue of NATO and Eastern Europe, but he will do so as a bargaining chip, a huge chip at that. As for President Trump, the Businessman, NATO support and or the reduction of support is also a bargaining chip. A chip not just for Europe and truthfully, Europe is not the first bet Trump will make with that chip. That chip is saved for the Tsar. The question is, what does President Trump want in exchange?

One things is certain, the NATO discussion between the US and Russia will not involve Egodan!

Side note: The funding stream attached to NATO membership is something the Turkish military understands.

If the Tsar can win some level of concessions on the issue of NATO in Eastern Europe, then guess what? He doesn’t need the Mad Turk anymore and tossing someone aside is a specialty of the Tsar. Oh, by the way, when the handshakes and the photo ops are over and when the Sultan walks away, they still don’t like each other! Who can Egodan turn to if the Russians and the US write him off? Can he find a new friend? Can he speak to the Dragon? Will the Dragon want to speak with him? If not, he can do what every spoiled brat child has a tendency to do. He can create a bigger mess in his room!

Dollars, Euros and “Terrorism”…..just how mentally unbalanced is this guy?

 http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/01/turkey-erdogan-says-dollar-euro-holders-are-terrorists.html]

MURDERS AND MEXICAN UNIVERSITIES IS THERE A STORY HERE?

Universities, the historical incubator of social discontent and often unrest. That holds true for Mexico as well and that is why this story caught my eye. Guerrero Mexico, the Southwest corner of Mexico. The historical birthplace of the unrest in Mexico. The murder of the tenth member of the faculty of the Autonomous University of Guerrero or their family members in the past year. If that is true, name me another institution of higher learning where ten members of that institution have been murdered in one year? Okay, leave out Syria and Iraq.

If you want to set in motion the potential for unrest, then allow something horrific to take place close enough to young college students that they can see it, talk about it and then have coffee over what it means. If you wish to add additional pressure on the Mexican government, let another story develop about death surrounding the life of those who live on or are associated with the Universities in Mexico. Let this all take place in the region of Mexico where the Universities were designed for the poor, working farm class families where pride runs deep for those who dream of their children having a better shot in life then they did. The memories of the 43 students who were rounded up and never seen again still runs deep in the social conscious of the common, working class Mexican. Yes, an event that could have brought down the Mexican government if it were not for the low expectations of its citizens that the government would ever tell the truth!

Why are these murders taking place at this University?  Is some latest, greatest drug gang behind these killings? Why? Look, the bottom line with any of those groups is this. If you don’t interfere with their ability to make money, then they could care less if you live or die. What is taking place at this university that has them taking such brutal action? Kidnappings for profit? Is that the game? Most likely not. Why kill the Son and the Husband? Is the school leading a social movement against the drug gangs in the area? That’s not out of the question, but nobody is making that claim that I have seen. I’m not going to play Homicide Detective here, but I will address the concern I am sure is, or should be, troubling the Mexican Government.  

REPERCUSSIONS:

Just how much attention do the murders at this University get? Are the leaders in Mexico City working this issue or are they relying on the inept and corrupt government of Guerrero to solve the case?  Basically, how much danger is in if for the government if they don’t solve this case? Trump is coming into Office this week and the issues with that are far more pressing to the leaders in Mexico City than yet another string of murders, even if they do have ties, once again, to a University.  The amount of energy the Mexican government will expend on this case will be directly proportional to the level of pain it may bring to them. I would be willing to bet the folks in Mexico City are spending more time monitoring the Social Media post coming from that campus and who is responding to them, then they are trying to stop what is taking place.

What happens if these murders are never solved? Will the students and faculty just move on?

What happens if the murders continue? That one is easier to answer. The government will have to at least appear to have some interest in the event, much like they did with the disappeared 43. Find a suspect, make a big scene arresting them or him and then declare victory. Remember the murders in Juarez? Over two hundred female victims and public outcry that boiled over into the US and then a Bus Driver was snatched and tagged for the whole show. Problem was, the murders continued!

CONSPIRACY:

Do you want to continue to cause increasing tension in Mexico?

Do you want to continue to destabilize the US’s Southern Border?

Do you want to continue to divide the US population on the issue of border security?

Do you want to force the U.S. to worry about its own backyard and less about other parts of the far away world?

If you desire all of these things, then continue to let Mexico slide into the mud of a collapsing, third world country.

Allow the Universities to become social hotbeds once again.

Allow the working class poor to continue to see Mexico City is indifferent to the rest of the “Fly over country” and watch the enemies of the U.S. leverage this pressure for their own gain.

Something is going on with the Autonomous University of Guerrero and it doesn’t matter if it’s something as simple as out of control drug gangs. The danger is far more serious than that.

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2017/01/professors-murder-was-10th-linked-to.html

PRESIDENT ELECT TRUMP AND THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY.

 WHAT'S GOING ON?

I didn’t go back and check, but I am fairly sure I’ve addressed the intelligence communities “issues” in the past. Now, it’s safe to say, I have a firsthand experience with this operation and it’s “community” and as such, my opinion of what is taking place between them and the President elect may not be to the liking of either side of the US political arena. Let me get a few key statements out of the way and then I will defend my opinions.

·        Does the Intelligence community “shape” reports / briefings based on political / leadership issues? Yes.

·        Is the information that is often derived from the field level collection points changed? Yes.

·        Does this take place at only the highest levels of political leadership? No! It takes place, to some degree, at all levels. The art of editing “intelligence” is a poorly executed process.

·        Are Intelligence agency leaders politically influenced? Yes. The higher the brief, the more influenced they become.

·        Is the private sector as good as or better than government controlled agencies? In many cases, yes!

·        Do agency heads worry about not upsetting their Bosses? Sadly, the answer has become “yes” with an ever increasing trend.

·        Must “intelligence” be weighed against foreign policy or economic issues? Yes.

Okay look. Gathering relevant intelligence / information / at almost every level is difficult once you get past the “raw data” stage. A street cop gets a tip on a criminal and passes it on to a line supervisor. Then, the line supervisor decides is it worth passing on to the next level or did the Officer tell someone else without the Supervisor knowing about it. How many times does a slice of intelligence get reviewed, modified before it’s passed on, incorporated into a larger topic or just dropped? The whole process of initial gathering and then collation and then review and then more collation and then more approval is almost universal. It takes place to some degree at all levels, local law enforcement or satellite data. It’s a cumbersome, methodical process that has far more opportunities to be wrong that it does to be right. A picture of a new launch pad in North Korea doesn’t equate into the North Koreans are going to attack South Korea. Slices of information that must be combined with multiple levels of other data has a real tendency to become lost or worse, corrupted. When you factor in speed, the need for information in a very short period of time, the process becomes far less reliable. So, the “Art of intelligence gathering is extremely difficult. It’s often very expensive and even more often provides poor results or worse, false information! In the end, it’s a never the golden key to proper decision making. To some of my close friends out there, we lived by a saying. “First reporting is almost always wrong”!

Does this down and dirty explanation of how intelligence gathering works explain what is going on with Trump and the “Community” in the US? It only tells part of the story. The rest is ugly, in my opinion and just about as dangerous as anything can possibly be for the safety of the nation.

INTELLIGENCE LEADERSHIP:

Is it new news that agency level leaders can be politically motivated, intimidated? No. It’s been going on from the beginning.

Is something that has been going on in the past less dangerous in the 21^st century simply because, “it’s always been like that”? No! The world is changing by the minute and those changes can make old concepts, old accepted practices, extremely dangerous in today’s word.  Remember, with social media and the World Wide Web, opinions and perceptions move far faster than political response. “ Arab Spring”!

Leon Pennetta! Totally unqualified to lead the organizations he was politically chosen to head. Does anyone think for a minute the briefings he had prepared for his Boss were not skewed based upon what he thought his Boss wanted to hear or even worse, needed to hear? Is that any different that anywhere else? Pennetta is just one example of what takes place all over the world. Do you think for a second the Tsar’s key leaders shape reports based on what may upset him? The only time that takes place in the West is when an agency head is looking to expand their budget and even then, the information is taking with a grain of salt. “He” or she, “ Is just trying to protect / grow / their budget”!  

In the 21^st century, can nations afford to have such a key process such as “intelligence” manipulated based upon, “the old ways”? What happens when a person comes along and wins the election in the most powerful nation in the world and that person didn’t come from that “old way”?  What happens when that person is a Billionaire who has conducted “Business / Intelligence all over the world with just about every government that matters? What should happen when that person says, “what are you doing and how are you doing it”?

Look! Calling out the US Intelligence Community in the US is a very bad idea.

Having the political counterparts leaving office and the media that supports them inflame that issue is so dangerous to the US, the people should be very…very….worried.

It’s a hard, inaccurate and messy job. It’s a process that needs to run by complete professionals. It’s a process that cannot become a political tool as it has in the past.

Beware! This nonsense is more dangerous to the US than most of its people know.

Trust me when I tell you, the US’s enemies know this all too well! 

JERUSALEM! AN EMBASSY MOVE AND WHAT MIGHT IT MEAN?

Is the US really going to move their Embassy to Jerusalem? Is there really an advantage for the US to do so? What are the upsides? What are the downsides? If they do make the move, can the region really get any more violent? If the US doesn’t move, what will it hurt them? Was it just a campaign promise like thousands in the past? Has Trump already had this conversation with Israel? How would the Arab countries really react? Do the Palestinians really matter that much to them? Is it an issue of honor? Okay, I could go on for about an hour with snapshot questions, but trust me when I tell you, there are people who are assigned to come up with such questions and then have possible courses of action for each answer. Well, at least that is the way it is supposed to happen! Trump could very well be a CEO more than a President in that he has already made up his mind on what he wants to do on the issue and that is that! It wouldn’t shock me in the least.

This morning, on this topic, I think I will play one of my favorite games, yep, “What if”?

What if? What if President Trump really intends on moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem even when some of his “Experts” tell him it’s not a good idea?

What if Part of the “Deal” President Trump is going to form with the Tsar is to have the Russians support this move or at a minimum give a, “No comment”? The Russians get their way in Syria and the US gets Trumps way on the issue of the move! Not a fair trade, but that won’t be the only bargaining chip. Does the Tsar really care if the US moves their Embassy to Jerusalem? The fact of the matter is, large issues are the ones that go on the table when the Tsar and Trump finally, truly start communicating. Is the move large enough of an issue to even make the list? The stabilization of the region and the sphere of influence both nations envision, that is what will be negotiated. If the Embassy issue impacts ether of those two topics, then yes, the move will make it onto the table. In the end, it’s nothing more than symbolism, or a trigger! To be perfectly honest here, the issue will be decided or has been decided without the inputs of the Palestinians. Yes, they sent a letter to Trump and yes they gave politically vailed threats, but will the region burn itself down over the move? No!

What if? What if the move really goes through? What will the Middle Eastern Nations do? What they say is merely a matter of political words and so many words have been spoken in that part of the world in the past thirty years they simply all blend together. What will they do? More accurately, what can they do and what are they willing to do? Declare war on Israel? No. Allow Terror groups to increase attacks on Israel? A dangerous game, especially for the Abbas and Gaza! Can the countries of the Middle East afford to stand by and watch the city that is most sacred to their religion be formally recognized as part of Israel? Does anyone in this world truly believe that Jerusalem is not part of Israel, regardless of their religious beliefs? Does anyone really think that that city will someday be taken from Israel? So, just how much sacrifice are the counties of the Middle East willing to make? Are they going place their own nations in ruins over the move? No! Will violence come from this move? Oh yes! I can assure you there would be violence and perhaps on a scale not seen in for many years. If you want to give the Radicals fuel for a worldwide fight against the US, then make this move. Abbas is a puppet and the West ability to counter the global Terror network is already strained beyond its ability to maintain. Violence is a guarantee. Nation state support for the Palestinians will be in the form of lip service.  

The final, “What if”:

What if Trump has communicated to the Tsar, “Look, I’m moving our Embassy to Jerusalem and we need to make sure the groups that might cause trouble are dealt with prior to the move”. The message is this, “You and I determine the fate of the region and this is just one step in letting the region know who calls the shots”!

Now, you can punch holes in my theories all you want, but the fact of the matter is, Trump and Putin are going to sit down and figure out what needs to happen in the Middle East. You may not like that and it may make you angry I said that, but the world works off of reality and perception.

What does this potential move mean? It means the Tsar and Trump are going to meet and decide no matter what!

Post January 20^th 2017 is going to be an exciting time and a dangerous time for those poor people who will suffer the counterattacks. Yes, the victims of the world continue to be victims!

How disappointed God must be! 

NIETO, TRUMP AND MEXICO. WHO IS TO BLAME?

Okay, back to an area of the world that has always worried me and the events of the past few weeks have only strengthened my worries.

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2017/01/pena-nieto-faces-unrest-in-mexico-as.html

After I read this story, I had to wonder just how soon the “Anti Trump” camp in the US would blame the inbound President for the events in Mexico. The good news for Trump, most of the Democrats could care less about Mexico and their actions in the past stand as proof. “Is there a vote to be had? If so, let me get a soundbite together quickly. If not, who cares”? That is the political way in just about every corner of the free world.

So, the price of gas in Mexico created this latest flare-up of protest? Okay, got it. The issue is an easy one to understand. Mexico started a process, under Nieto, to open up the Mexican oil industry. For decades it’s been nothing more than a cash cow for the government to syphon funds into social programs. The problem is, the funds never really showed up! As you can probably guess, most of the profits went to the Political Elite in Mexico City, but the story of taking care of the people sounded good. Well, as the industry became far more competitive in the past ten years, it’s become very clear to Mexico that their cash cow was not going to be competitive enough to keep the funds flowing. Along comes the idea of privatizing part of Pemex. Not all of it because that might make the pubic upset. The freebees must flow, but only enough to keep the poor content. January 1, 2017 was the next phase in this privatization process and that called for artificial prices to increase, much like the GCC states had to do.

Now, in a normal, healthy society, a 25% increase in gas would not be popular and it might even lead to a few televised protest, but Mexico is nowhere near having a “healthy society”. Mexico is a societal mess and the gas price increase is just another stone placed on top of an overburdened public psyche.  Protest are nothing new in Mexico and the government of Mexico is notorious for underestimating their public’s reaction. Not only does the Mexican government not anticipate public anger, it has an even longer history of overreacting to such anger and meeting protest with violence.

Is any of this new news? Is any of this worthy of catching someone’s ear? Yep and here is why.

IT’S TRUMP’S FAULT:

A blast from the past tone is taking shape not only in DC, but with other nations. “It’s Trump’s fault”! Trump has scared the Mexican government and its people into believing they are all going to slide down the economic scale into crisis because of Donald Trump! What a great and classic pitch line from Mexico City. If you cannot find a solution to your problem, then blame someone else! Now, a few things are worthy of addressing in this, “It’s Trump’s fault” storyline. It seems clear now that Trump has figured out the power of social media, at least far better than most of DC. You see, to typical politicians, social media, twitter as the example, is nothing more than a tool to garner votes. Yes, most political pundits have figured out the advantage of social media, but almost all of them have underestimated its real power! But, not Trump. It appears he understands far better than most of DC the art of shaping other’s reactions with the simple motion of a post. Let me give you what I now believe may be a prime example of what Trump has figured out. What if? Yes one of my old, favorite games, but what if Trump never clearly defined what he meant when he said, “Mexico will ‘pay’ for the wall”? The peso’s nosedive in the past few months could be the real indicator. What did he mean when he said, “pay”? NAFTA. The fear of the honey hole called NAFTA. If you forgot what it was or never knew in the first place, here is my version. NAFTA, Not a Fare Trade Agreement!  Corporations get cheap labor and very little environmental oversight and the Mexican government gets to show their people they created jobs in Mexico. Did it create an unbalanced trade environment? That’s a good topic for someone else to take on, but I will say in the US it is undeniable the impact was the loss of jobs on a massive scale. Perceptions! That is what politicians worry about, not reality!  To working class “Joes” in the US, NAFTA was the SHAFTA! Trump saw this and he levered it to win states that stunned the Democrats!

Has Trumps statements impacted Mexico? Yes. Is Trump to blame for the status of Mexico? No! If things go bad, real bad in Mexico, you can bet the battle cry from the Democrats in the US will be, “It’s Trump’s fault”! Oh ya, you will hear the same statements coming out of Mexico City.

What’s wrong in Mexico is not based on a 25% increase in gasoline. What is wrong in Mexico is not based on Trump’s “words” on social media or campaign platforms. What’s wrong in Mexico is the reality that Mexico has no true governance! Nieto is just another in a long line of delusional, out of touch, social elites from Mexico City who see the rest of Mexico as Fly over country full of peasants! Hmmm.. let me think. What other political party simply looks at the majority of their country’s landmass as “ fly over country”? And they wonder why Trump won the Rust Belt!!!! 

PART THREE OF THE 2017 PREDICTION. THE DRAGON GETS A VOTE!

Over the past few days, I’ve addressed the issue of predicting what might take place in 2017 and what really matters. So, the final part of that review deals with the Dragon. We’ve looked at the Tsar and Trump equation, but both of those theories are absolutely incomplete without factoring in the final piece of the triad that will determine the events of 2017 and beyond.

What does the Dragon want?

What is the Dragon willing to bring to the negotiation table? 

Does the Dragon attempt to make its mark on the word simply based on threats?

Here are three quick answers and then I’ll dive into each with more detail.

1.      The Dragon wants economic stability and that is nearly impossible with over 1.4 BILLION citizens.

2.      The Dragon is willing to compromise on shipping lanes, littoral lanes, for now. (Neutral water is the key phrase in 2017….remember that.)

3.       The Rabid Dog called North Korea and the survival of Taiwan. Two way the Dragon may work from the bases of threats.

Did the Dragon just wake up one day and say to itself, “I think I will swallow the most active littoral lanes in the world and see if I can upset everyone around me”? No! China is a nation that embarked on a capitalistic journey over 30 years ago with the intent to enslave the rest of the Western world on cheap goods and in the meantime use the funding to build an unmatched military. What happened next is classic and yes, predictable. The people of China, even the ones that run the country, became addicted to the lifestyle the Capitalistic based economy created. You see, the Dragon designed a very complex plan to carve out their slice of the world, a slice that would have to be huge given the 1.5 Billion people that would have to be served by this plan. Yep. A fatal flaw! They designed a very complex plan for their future and somehow truly believed they could keep their massive population loyal to the Communist philosophy, a philosophy that also has a fatal flaw; the suppression of individualism! In the end the Dragon now sits on its land with a very small percentage of its population reaping the rewards of this Master Plan. In the land of the Dragon, one person drives a new car while a hundred watch with envy. They are not part of the “plan”! That is the fatal flaw and the Dragon knows it.  Survival? How does the Dragon survive such a deadly mistake? Land, power, fear!

THE MEETING:

Will there be a face to face between Trump and the leader of the Dragon’s Master Plan, Jinping? Eventfully there has to be, even if relationships get worse. Both the US and the Chinese will have to show the world they are trying to make things right. As for the Tsar, his meeting has taken place. The Dragon and the Tsar have shook hands, with fingers crossed behind their backs! They will meet again, but when, well, that will depend on how President Trump starts his relationship with the Dragon. But, when Trump finally sets his “China Policy”, the world and the Tsar will wait to see how the Dragon responds. Will the Chinese approach with the carrot or the stick? Will it be more of one, but a little of the other?  Can the Dragon afford to have President Trump set the scene? Can the Dragon allow the South China Seas issue to be set by the US? The answer is no!

EXPANSIONISM:

By setting into motion a plan for becoming prominent on the world stage, the Dragon has become trapped in the death spiral of Expansionism! The land and materials of China cannot support the dreams of 1.5 Billion people. The Dragon now knows it needs more than just the littoral lanes of the Pacific. To survive, to keep the population of its land content and thus supportive, the Dragon must now fly to new territories! It must rule over distant shores. China may have dreamed of maintaining the “rule” through economic might. It may have believed that the threat of no longer providing low cost goods would be enough to keep the people of the ruled lands happy. Why, just listen to the economic “experts” in the West when they get paid to talk on the cable news. “ If Trump takes a hard stance with China, it will bring on economic disaster for the US”! Yes, to this level the Dragon’s plan has worked. Fear! Fear of not having cheap goods. Fear of a trade war! Doom and gloom! “We must not upset/ wake / the Dragon”! Then. Then along comes a Billionaire Businessman who suddenly, unpredictably, becomes President of the most powerful nation in the world.  A man who sees through the Dragon’s Master Plan. A man that knows it is not too late to break the economic slavery that has so masterfully been placed over the rest of the world. What does this mean to the Dragon? It means one thing. A threat. It means the Dragon now fears its soft spot has been identified. The ability to keep the people of the China content, loyal, is based upon all the world’s money flowing into China. Now, the most powerful nation in the world has a leader that stands up and says, “No”. A leader who states, “We conduct our economies on a level playing field or we don’t play at all.  A Businessman’s approach.  

THE DANGER:

Hacked emails, tinkering in another countries’ politics. This has been going on for thousands of years! The US sits today with DC foaming at the mouth over hacked emails of arrogant, ignorant politicians in the US and the people of the US are expected to hear their leaders talk of “ Acts of War”?

In DC and in the US government, “intelligent” people will try to warn the new President just how dangerous it is to anger the Dragon! Threaten the Dragon’s economic stability and you threaten the stability of the nation itself. Far more dangerous than emails and 20 year old hackers who happen to find the email sent by a group of idiots who put their passwords in the emails.

The Dragon has been content to fly over the lands of others inside of FEDEX.  Littoral lanes have spread the Dragon’s domain to all corners of the world. If the US decides to change the current course of the world’s economy, then it must be prepared for the possible response.  Sound like a warning to the end bound US President? Here is the bad news. The appetite of 1.5 Billion people is too much for the current plan of the Dragon.  Two choices face the Chinese. Scale back your expectations of your future. Make the world fear more than just your economic weapons!

2017, the year a Billionaire Businessman leading the most powerful nation in the world will make a decision that will determine the Dragan’s next move!

Remember these words. “ Neutral Waters”.