THE BATTLE FOR RAQQA? A THUMB IN THE EYE.... I AM CONFUSED! 

This may seem like a reoccurring question as of late, but let me ask it anyway.

Why now?

Why the US manipulated “announcement” of this operation? It’s too late to do Hillary any good. It’s not going to be completed, if it could be completed, before Obama leaves office. On the surface it seems to be a real thumb in the eye of the Ottomans and their leader is not known for being unresponsive to being thumbed in the eye. Timing is the centerpiece of politics and the timing of this operation is suspect at best.

US General Dunford’s trip to see his Turkish counterpart makes this issue even more interesting. Not only had the US stated the Turks would not be part of any operation to retake Raqqa, but it also appears the US and “others” didn’t bother informing the Turks, our NATO partners, the operation was about to start. For the record, US four Star Generals don’t travel, unannounced, to make small talk. They typically have one of two goals to accomplish on such a trip. They ether initiate the agreement to start a major planning operation, a preliminary event, or they show up as soon as an uncoordinated event is underway for the purpose of mending fences and or delivering an explanation of actions to their counterparts. In this case, I would be willing to bet the General’s mission was to minimize the damage to an already fragile relationship. It will not take the Egodan long to fashion his response to this announcement. He is a talk first, think later kind of guy.

Did I mention this “recapture mission” is somewhat misleading in it’s very explanation? Recapture for whom? Assad? The recognized government, like it or not, of Syria? So the US and “others” are recapturing territory inside a sovereign nation, but not doing so for the recognized government of that nation?  The recaptured land will be given to the same group that is fighting to overtake the seated government in Syria?

Never in a Vacuum.

In a conflict where intelligence is gathered at all levels by more organizations than you can count, does anyone think this event was planned, agreed to and prepped without just about everyone knowing it was going to take place, not to mention the months of news statements stating an operation like this one was going to take place? Who was surprised by the announcement? Other than the American people, you know, the ones paying for it, this operation was probably right up there with the rest of the poorly kept “secrets” dealing with Syria. If key players, the Tsar, the Sultan, Assad, Persians and the GCC, Sunni governments knew it was coming, does anyone think the Daesh didn’t know?

The Kurd conundrum.

Let’s assume, my favorite game if you have read my blog over the past few years, the fight for Raqqa ends with the Daesh being defeated? Who is going to turn the water back on? Who is going to rebuild the city? Assad? Well, it may be his country, but he is not invited to the event and the odds are he would not be invited to claim part of his country.

Are the supporters of this plan going to place the Kurds in charge of managing / governing Raqqa? What has been the driving issue for the Turks since the day the Syria Civil War started? Yep. The Kurds and Kurdish land near the Turkish border. What part of this plan seems to be a poor fit? Who gave it the stamp of approval and what is the daily cost, not to mention the threat of loss of lives, to the American people? Do they even care?

Deal.

It seems I just addressed this issue of “deals” a few days ago, but then again, dealing is the lifeblood of international relations.

Was this operation signed off on by the Russians? Is the relationship between the US and Russia stable enough to work out the kinks of yet another epiphany with the Kurds? Is the US thumbing the Tsar’s eye as well as the Turks? Who thought this plan all the way through? Somehow, I think I have once again given the US administration more credit than they deserve.

If no “deal” was struck before this event, at least not with the Turks or the Russian, then once again, I have to ask the initial question; why?

Just noise.

Would anyone be surprised if this action was just another example of the US announcing a “plan” and having no intent of it leading to anything? Are we looking again at words and a few million dollars in jet fuel and smart bombs and the next thing you know, someone in DC will be talking about how the US is taking the fight to Daesh!  

Smoke and mirrors! Hollow Carbs? More political grandstanding?

Should the Russians or the Turks or Iran or even Assad be upset by this event, or have they become accustomed to the US and its hairband, political stunts?   Will any of them take advantage of this event to once again make US foreign policy look like a rudderless ship.

Raqqa! Chapter four hundred and fifty-five in the saga of American Foreign policy lost at sea! An eight year journey that is about to have a new Captain at the helm!

Raqqa; I’m still confused!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37889133

THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD’S CORP COMING TO THE US AND EUROPE? 

Just when I thought I might follow up for a third night on the issue of the Turks and Iraq, this story of the IRGC forces “coming to the US and Europe soon” ends up on the front page of a major US news network. Ok, I’ll bite. Let’s take a look at this rather bazar statement?

Salar Abnoush? Who is he you might ask? Well, he’s a low level flunky to start with. So, why would he be tasked with sending such a critical message to the US and Europe? Was he just shooting his mouth off in a typical, “look at me” moment? It could be, but that would be a dangerous concept in a country where unofficial statements can be your last statement!  Should we assume he was “cleared” to make this comment? Most likely! Once we get past that decision point, the next question becomes the more important topic.

Why and why now and why him of all people?

Okay. Why?

Why would the Iranian leadership make such a bold and let’s face it, stupid comment one week before the US Presidential election? If the Persians were looking for reaction, what reaction where they looking for? What was the desired result of the comment? Could it be the intended audience was not the political leadership of the US and Europe? Perhaps the saber raddling was for internal reasons? It would not be the first time the Iranian leadership took that approach. Could it be they really didn’t anticipate the statement would make it to the Western press, or perhaps they just didn’t care? If this was once again an “internal” issue and Iranian leadership is just so confident that the US and Europe will not overreact to the statement, then it’s not really reckless. Is Iran that confident the US and Europe is so lethargic towards Iran that they will not even recognize the event? Now, that is a real possibility, but let’s continue to dig a little further.

Why now?

Rumors of the ongoing power struggle inside Iran between the so called “moderates” and the “hardliners”, two titles I’ve addressed in the past, are out there for everyone to read about. Was this just a shot by the “hardliners” to show their resolve for the “revolution”? Again, it would fit the mold of them believing the US and Europe will simply look the other way. In the eyes of aggressive Tyrants, Passive Liberals are like Sheep simply hoping the Wolves will not come tonight.  Ignore the statement and it will go away! A mindset that is defended by the viewpoint of, “we don’t want to overreact”.

On the other hand, is Iran actually sending a message to the US and Europe, but doing so with some midlevel ladder climber who is more than willing to have his fifteen minutes of fame. If it goes bad, and someone actually gets upset with the statement, doubtful, then getting on the phone and saying, “we had a wannabe step out of line…..we will deal with him”, becomes an easy exit. Remember, the US and Europe want to be friends with Iran so bad they can taste it. “It was a mistake”, is the perfect way to allow the progressive liberals of the US and Europe show their hardliners, it was all simply an accident, stop saber raddling.

Woops! None of this really answers the “why now”! Sorry, I got sidetracked. The part of the “why now” that would have anyone who watches the region confused goes back to the issue of the pending US election. Who is the real “Hawk”? Who is the one that seems to pose the biggest threat to Iranian actions in the region? Hillary! The same Hillary that is, in the eyes of the Persians, friends with Saudi! How would making a “we are coming to the US and Europe” threat impact Hillary Clinton’s campaign? What is the point? Are the Iranians anticipating the relationship with a President Clinton to be a step backwards from the Obama administration? If so, how does this aggressive statement move the cause for Iran forward? I don’t believe it does and that is why I’m leaning away from the idea that event was designed to influence the US elections. Does the statement do any good for Donald Trump? Do the Iranians see a better day over the horizon with Trump? I don’t think so. So, does this event impact the Trump campaign? We will see if his people even mention it.  So, in the world of “why now”, the answer may very well be, “why not”?

Why Salar?

I think we have hit on the two possibilities on this topic. He was ether trying to make a name for himself, something many of the military leaders in Iran have attempted in the past, or he was the message boy for a bigger game. A game that may not be about the US and Europe at all.

Okay; here is my closing thoughts on this event.  The internal power plays taking place inside Iran right now are far more controversial than the Western media contemplates. The ability for the Iranian Hawks to make outrageous statements and have the confidence the US and Europe will do nothing about it, well, that is where I would place my bet.

Here is the sad part of this story. Does anyone in the US or Europe understand how unintimidated the Iranian leadership is with the current US and European governments? Can you imagine if Salar would have tossed into his statement, “and in Russia as well”?  By the time the Iranian Hawks would have been able to arrange for him to be a “causality” in the Syrian conflict, the Tsar would be killing the next Iranian General in Syria. How many Iranian Generals have died in Syria and who got to them? I bet the Iranians know!

Respect. When it comes to that word the Tsar is only Aretha Franklin the Iranians know.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/11/02/iran-claims-its-sending-elite-fighters-to-infiltrate-us-europe.html

THE TSAR AND THE SULTAN. HAVE THEY REALLY STRUCK A “DEAL” ON SYRIA?

My last post addressed the issue of the Turks and the potential for increased confrontation with Iraq.  One of the primary questions that needed to be answered was, did the Sultan and the Tsar make a “deal” on the issue of Turkey’s interest in Syria and Iraq? Well, according to the attached story, from one of the Sultan’s media outlets, some level of a “deal” has been at least announced by Turkey. A deal that doesn’t address Iraq, but it does address the more immediate issue to the Turks, Syria and the Kurds.

Long ago, I took the stance that the Tsar would use the Kurds, like the West has done, as a pawn in his master plan for the Middle East. Promises to the Kurds are like any promises from any politician, if you count on them, you are a fool!

As I was reading this bit of Ottoman propaganda, I couldn’t help but notice I had not heard a thing from the Tsar’s media machine. If some level of petitioning of Northern Syria was actually being agreed upon, where was the Russian version of the story? It wouldn’t be the first time the Sultan made his own headlines, to the astonishment of those were supposedly part of the discussion. Did the Tsar quietly agree to a future configuration of Syria and yet decide not to make a spectacle of the issue? Not like him. Shoving his achievements in the faces of the West is much more his style. So, what is taking place here and who really is involved in the event?

Russia ability to determine the future of Syria is believable, even when you factor in the Persian influence. Yes, Iran desires to control the outcome of events in Syria and a major victory in the Presidential joke, I mean election in Lebanon, has to be factored into the Iranian formulary for Syria. What good is a gain in Lebanon if the Persians are cut off from direct support through Syria? Is it in Russia’s best interest to let the Iranians have their way in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq? No! Would the Tsar make some level of a “deal” with the Sultan and not let the Persians have a vote? Absolutely. How often have I addressed the issue of the uneasy alliance between the Iranians and the Russians? If it was not for the pathetic foreign policy of the US and the rest of the West, the relationship between Iran and the Russians could be far weaker than it already is. Never forget, there is no love between the Persians and the Russians. As I’ve said in the past, in the eyes of the Russians, Persians are good people….as long as they do exactly as they are told! So, has the Sultan and the Tsar come up with a plan for Northern Syria that satisfies the Sultan’s fears over the Kurd issue? Even if this story is true, and I doubt that it is, the Sultan has a two front problem and the other front is one the Tsar has much less influence over, at least for now!

Iraq:

The same Sultan news mouthpiece that put out the story about this breakthrough agreement on Syria also posted a story on the continuing buildup of Turkish forces along the Iraqi border. As a reminder, the Sultan’s problem with the Kurds is the simple fact that they occupy land not just in Syria, but in Iraq as well. Yes, the Syrian Kurd issue is a higher priority than the Iraqi issue, but don’t believe the Iraqi issue is not vital to the Sultan’s fears. This is where it gets much more difficult for the Sultan. In the Syrian issue, he has someone he can “deal” with, the Tsar. In Iraq, he has nobody. His feeble attempts to work with the Persians on the Kurdish issue have been not only been indicative of Armature Hour, not to mention his hot headedness,  but the Persians have won the Public Relations war on the issue of the two countries trying to negotiate a position. In short, the Sultan is has gotten nowhere on the Iraqi issue. As I said two nights ago, it’s much safer to pick a fight with the Iraqi leadership than to accuse the Persians of meddling in the affairs of Turkey. So, to the Sultan, the answer becomes, flex your muscles! The fact that the Turks already have military forces on the ground in Iraq doesn’t sit well with the Iraqi government not to mention the Iranians and to be placing additional forces on the Iraqi border is probably not going to get ether the Iraqi or Iranian governments to come to the table.  Can this all end up with a larger Turkish forces entering Iraq? If you have been listening to the conversation over the past two weeks between the Sultan and the Iraqi government, it’s easy to see why panic is not far removed from the conversation. 

Here is my closing question for this conversation. If the case of Syria, it may be possible the Tsar and the Sultan have come to some level of a “deal”, it’s been speculated this was taking place for over a year. The issues go far deeper than Syria for the Tsar and the Sultan. Europe is the key to the conversation between the two of them. So, where is the Tsar on the question of the Sultans’ actions with Iraq?   How does the Tsar manipulate the potential conflict? Or……..Does he let it take place? What are the ramifications of a NATO member openly defying the West on the issue of Iraq? Oh ya…that’s right…it’s already happening!

After the US Presidential elections are finally over next week, will it be time to pay attention to what is taking place in the rest of the world?  Will ether Donald Trump of Hillary Clinton be prepared to wade into the quagmire the last eight years of US foreign policy has created? Woops… Hillary was a key part of that quagmire!!! Great!  

http://www.worldbulletin.net/headlines/179421/turkey-russia-sign-landmark-agreement-on-syria

TURKEY AND THE SHIA MILITIAS. THE DANGER MANY HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT.

Well, once again, the news of the day was based on the topic of emails and political leaders who make rules but don’t live by them. As important as the issue of Hillary’s emails may be, the danger of increased violence in the Middle Eastern Region continues to increase. Since the beginning of the operation to retake Mosul, the fear of further inflaming the sectarian conflict between the Sunni and Shia has been on radar. Could anyone convince the Iranian Puppet Masters of these Shia Militias to limit their involvement? Did Iran even intend on limiting their involvement? Who warned Iran not to let the Shai groups get too involved? The Russians? The US? The Turks?

It now appears, just as some had predicted, the Shia Militias are going to take a leading part in the battle for Mosul? Even if Iraq and Iran attempt to hide this event, the truth will get out. Iraq can claim their Anti-Terrorism Forces are leading the fight and Iran can deny the Shia Militias level of support, but there will be no hiding the truth and the truth is, the Iranian controlled Militias are going to be deeply involved in any successful fight for Mosul.

What will the Sunni nations stand for? The Shia Militias have had their way in Iraq in the past and the long-term repercussions have flamed the hatred of the two groups to new levels. 

Is anyone able to provide any level of checks and balances to this pending disaster?

What will the repercussions be if Shia Militias once again rain revenge on the Sunni citizens of Mosul?

Who will be there to stop it from taking place? Iraq’s government? I highly doubt it. Words. We will hear “words” from the Iraqi leadership, but then again, that is all we have heard from them for the past thirteen years….”words”!

Will the Tsar prevent yet another round of sectarian violence? Ask yourself the most simplistic question. What’s in it for the Tsar? If it makes the West look weak and if it makes the US look even more lost then they already are, then why would he.

Prevention? Is anyone or any nation actually in a position to prevent this Shia Militia event? Yes.

The Turks! The NATO member, Turkey and their Tyrannical leader!

Are the Turks talking to the Russians about the dangers of the Shia Mulitas and Mosul? Yes, and they have been for months. They have been talking not just about Mosul, but the Shia Militias actions in general. By the way, these Militias have been conducting “retaliation / revenge / events for years in Iraq.

Who do the Turks hold responsible for these Shia Militia groups? The Iraqis? Yes.

Why the Iraqis and not the real controlling nation, Iran? Because it’s easier to say Iraq is responsible for letting the groups on Iraqi soil than it is to say Iran controls Iraq. By the way, as a reminder, Iran does control Iraq!

As the email stories coming out of the US continued to mystify the Western world, it was easy to overlook a very serious statement by the Turkish leadership. A buildup of forces on the Iraqi border. This announcement was in conjunction with a continuing threat from Turkey over the issue of the Shia Militias.

The Sultan of the what he hopes is the new, Ottoman Empire, is trying hard to portray himself and Turkey as the defenders of the Sunni faithful in Syria and to some degree Iraq. Most of us realize his real goal is to prevent the Kurds from carving out a state along the Turkish border, but a the idea of a hostile occupation force being sent into Syria and or Iraq is much more supportable in the Sunni world if that bases for that force is saving the Sunni civilians from the crazed Shia Militias.

Can the Turks really afford to come to blows with these Iraqi supported, Iranian controlled Shia Militias?

Well, that depends on what the Sultan and the Tsar have come to terms with?

Notice I didn’t mention the Western / US / influence in this decision?

Does a large part of the world understand the US is preoccupied with one of the embarrassing Presidential Election in decades? Oh yes, and that my friends is even more dangerous then the Ottoman’s Sultan’s threats!

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/10/30/Erdogan-Turkey-aims-to-reinforce-troops-on-Iraq-border.html

THE TSAR’S POPULARITY IN EUROPE IS ON THE RISE AND WHO IS TO BLAME?

A story from the Tsar’s media puppet, Sputnik news, speaking to the comments of an Italian writer on how Europe is growing fonder of the Russian leader, should not surprise anyone. But, is it true? Is there any indication the Tsar’s popularity in Europe is growing? Actually, let me rephrase that question. Is the Tsar’s popularity in Europe better than the US’s?  Yes. Is that true universally in Europe? Nothing is universal in this world. The fact of the matter is, the Tsar popularity in Europe may very well be about to eclipse Europe’s opinion of US leadership. Just imagine where this conversation may be heading if Donald Trump wins the US Presidential Election? The Tsar may end up being the only leader in Europe that will talk to Trump!

So, let’s accept the fact the Tsar’s popularity is on the rise in Europe and let’s ask ourselves why?

A few months ago, I addressed the issue of weak, progressive leadership in Europe being blamed for the crisis of the human wave that descended upon the Continent. While all these compassionate European leaders where reaching out to waves of people they had no idea who they were or even where they came from, the Tsar was keeping the doors to Russia closed! Was he a villain for doing so? Give him a call and see if he regrets his actions! Putin’s popularity grows for one reason in Europe and it will continue to grow. He represents an attitude of “my people first”! Those in Europe who have a perception of the entire continent becoming unstable for the most part blame the massive waves of people simply walking into their countries. Are these Europeans selfish, heartless or even cruel? That is a matter of perception, but I will tell you the perception battle in Europe is being won by those who feel things are out of control.

In 2017, a series of elections will be held in Europe and I predict that at the end of the day, the liberal governments of Europe will be hard pressed to maintain power. Those who were once labeled “Radical Right” are taking on the perception of concerned citizens.

The swing to the right in Europe is undeniable. How far this swing continues is based upon the world’s ability to stabilize the Middle East and parts of Africa and both of those goals are going to be more and more  difficult to achieve, especially from Progressive, Liberal governments in Europe.

For now, Europe has one leader who gives the people of Europe the perception of placing his citizens first. Yep. You know who that is.

Why is Putin’s popularity growing in Europe? Is it because, as the West / US / says, he has a great propaganda media machine?

Why is it, when governance fails to meet the expectations of the people they are sworn to serve, it’s never their own fault?

The West / US / progressive attitude towards world problems has kicked the can so far down the street that the world has run out of street!

Putin’s media machine is not exclusively responsible for his growing popularity in Europe.

If his growing popularity worries European / US / leaders, they need only look in the mirror for most of the answer as to why it is happening.

The rise of Nationalism in Europe?

Is it going to be seen as a danger to the nations of Europe?

Is it going to be seen as being more dangerous that what is taking place now?

Is that the next movement?

Europe has a long history of repeating mistakes.

They are well on their way!

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201610271046804637-west-mainstream-funerals/

THE OTTOMANS, ARABS, PERSIANS AND THE RUSSIANS AND THE NEXT US PRESIDENT. WHO IS READY FOR THIS ISSUE?

Since the very beginning of the Arab Spring/ Tunisian Virus / I have commented on the changing vision of the Ottomans and their self-proclaimed Sultan…Egodan! (Yep. I still call him that, given I will never travel to Turkey).  

As the US citizens hear of yet another twist in the pathetic Presidential election events, it is a fact that whatever the FBI comes up, and I’m betting it’s something bad for Hillary, the changing environment of the Middle East continues to become more and more dangerous.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, something some readers may not even understand, it’s important to realize the tensions that are building in the Middle East.

Here is a quick cheat sheet version:

The Turks are not going to allow the Kurds, under any banner to negotiate land for support in Iraq or Syria.

The Iraqi government cannot allow the Shia Militias to control the retaken territory, even when Iraq is incapable of providing any level of organized government.

The Russians cannot afford to have the Daesh Terrorist to move back into Syria from Iraq.

The Iranian Government cannot allow Turks to openly defy the Iraqi government by executing military operations on Iraqi land.

The region is a mess and a dangerous mess at that.

Here is the most frightening fact in all madness that is called the Middle East.  Nobody seems to truly be on anyone’s side. Deals are struck without a lick of sincerity.

The Russians don’t care about Assad. It’s about leverage against the West and the Chess game called Eastern Europe.

The Ottomans don’t care about Western perception of their actions, even though they are still, for now, a key member of NATO; an organization the Russians would love to neutralize.

The Rebels fighting the Syrian government can see only one issue; Sunni vs Shia.

The region is a mixture of Superpower tension fused with a very dangerous, ageless sectarian conflict.

Does ether US Candidate have a “plan” for the region?

Even if they do, does the US still have the ability to influence events in the region or is the West just along for the ride?

How many jobs will the next President create?

What will be the future of the US economy?

What will be the makeup of the US Supreme Court in the next five years?

These all sound like very serious issues, but in the end, are they the ones that will determine the future of the US and its status in the world?

Can the US do anything other than watch what happens next in the region?

Is the future of peace in the region not to be decided or even influenced by the US?

Times are changing and the idea of the US once again becoming a bystander in major world affairs may not be too far off.

In January, a new mindset will take hold in the White House.

What will the next administration concentrate on and what will it simply sit back and watch?

The Ottomans, the Persians, the Arabs and the Russians. These are the players on the field. The West / US is quickly being relegated to the sidelines.